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Demaryius Thomas 2017 Outlook


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3 minutes ago, kdko said:

 

It was never going to be the Mark Sanchez show, all 3 of their QB's competed for the starting job in the offseason, and all 3 got preseason starts.  I'm of the opinion that he was a pawn piece for the 2 first preseason starts, as the CS let the rookie and season starter get their feet wet in the last 2 preseason games to limit injury risk.  Sanchez was released the week before the season started.  Now you have 2 (and i may be projecting here) equally skilled QB's competing for the job, with one being last years investment, and the other being last years starter.  This offense should be a little more balanced this year with CJ Anderson back, and Jamaal Charles possibly providing a nice 3rd down role.  These should both take away from DT's target share IMO.  He saw a sharp increase in targets immediately following the game in which CJA went down, as they didn't have a solid run game and DT was getting a lot of check downs.  Evidenced by his lowest YPR of his career.  Like I said, i'm unwavering in my opinion that DT's floor is as shaky as it's ever been, but if you can get him in the late 3rd/4th, you should be getting a nice return.  2nd round?  Big no thanks.

 

 

I think DT's 'sharp' increase in targets (week 6?)  had more to do with Siemen settling into the offense (he was hurt for week 5 and returned week 6) than CJA going down. Considering this team and DT's skill set I would much rather prefer a balanced offensive approach + more RZ opportunities than peppered 3 yard outs. 

 

He's also not going in the 2nd and not speculating he will unless someone is particularly high on him in your league. He'll most likely settle mid/late 3rd round as he did last year. 

 

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On Thursday, June 29, 2017 at 8:03 AM, Impreza178 said:

Any decline because of age is merely conjecture

 

 

Anyone have any studies on how size/speed specimens age and when the drop off occurs?

 

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5 minutes ago, 96mnc said:

 

Anyone have any studies on how size/speed specimens age and when the drop off occurs?

 

 

While undoubtedly useful when looking at aggregate risk of the group as a whole...

 

I'll always refer to first hand reports on the radio and from your buddy Impreza who will be at Broncos camp at least once a week :D.  Beauty of being your own boss

 

 

 

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On ‎7‎/‎15‎/‎2017 at 1:38 PM, 96mnc said:

Anyone have any studies on how size/speed specimens age and when the drop off occurs?

Jordy, B.Marsh, Andre Johnson, V.Jax... ummm, Tron left too soon, would Fitz qualify? Roddy? TO, Ochicinco, Moss?

It really depends on how you define it, and what cutoff we use to determine DT's 'talent' or 'production' class.

 

These are the names that come to mind over the past decade, and I'd say he's in good company, but I assume it's biased since I'm far more likely to recall the quality WRs that continued to have success versus those who fizzled out.

 

Regardless, DT's age doesn't concern me in the slightest this year, and I'm perfectly fine with his draft price this year.

Last year was arguably his floor, and he finished 15th overall.  He can currently be had as the 14th WR off the board, you're getting him at his floor price.  I think a case can be made for A.Rob, but K.Allen, A.Jeffery, and S.Watkins are the other 4 WRs behind DT, so I think you would be hard pressed to expect him going any lower.  With RB names behind him of Crow, McCaffrey, Mixon, and TyMont, you're looking at a LOT of uncertainty even in the big picture.  The QB situation caps his upside for sure, so if you're not interested in safe or boring in the 3rd, I completely understand.  He has a narrower range of outcomes, that doesn't reach as high as some of these alternatives, but also doesn't go as low as these alternatives.  It's entirely dependent on how you like to construct your team, and what time of risk/reward you're willing to take, and when you're willing to take it. 

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7 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

Jordy, B.Marsh, Andre Johnson, V.Jax... ummm, Tron left too soon, would Fitz qualify? Roddy? TO, Ochicinco, Moss?

It really depends on how you define it, and what cutoff we use to determine DT's 'talent' or 'production' class.

 

These are the names that come to mind over the past decade, and I'd say he's in good company, but I assume it's biased since I'm far more likely to recall the quality WRs that continued to have success versus those who fizzled out.

 

Regardless, DT's age doesn't concern me in the slightest this year, and I'm perfectly fine with his draft price this year.

Last year was arguably his floor, and he finished 15th overall.  He can currently be had as the 14th WR off the board, you're getting him at his floor price.  I think a case can be made for A.Rob, but K.Allen, A.Jeffery, and S.Watkins are the other 4 WRs behind DT, so I think you would be hard pressed to expect him going any lower.  With RB names behind him of Crow, McCaffrey, Mixon, and TyMont, you're looking at a LOT of uncertainty even in the big picture.  The QB situation caps his upside for sure, so if you're not interested in safe or boring in the 3rd, I completely understand.  He has a narrower range of outcomes, that doesn't reach as high as some of these alternatives, but also doesn't go as low as these alternatives.  It's entirely dependent on how you like to construct your team, and what time of risk/reward you're willing to take, and when you're willing to take it. 

 

I would disagree with his floor. It may seem consistent, but what if last year was actually his ceiling with Sieman... What if Demaryius pulls a Brandon Marshall, Hopkins or Allen Robinson from last season and even while receiving a boat load of targets, he in unable to do anything with them. Food for thought.

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4 minutes ago, boltup15 said:

 

I would disagree with his floor. It may seem consistent, but what if last year was actually his ceiling with Sieman... What if Demaryius pulls a Brandon Marshall, Hopkins or Allen Robinson from last season and even while receiving a boat load of targets, he in unable to do anything with them. Food for thought.

 

Unlike those two, he won't cost you a high first round pick to find out...

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15 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

Jordy, B.Marsh, Andre Johnson, V.Jax... ummm, Tron left too soon, would Fitz qualify? Roddy? TO, Ochicinco, Moss?

It really depends on how you define it, and what cutoff we use to determine DT's 'talent' or 'production' class.

 

These are the names that come to mind over the past decade, and I'd say he's in good company, but I assume it's biased since I'm far more likely to recall the quality WRs that continued to have success versus those who fizzled out.

 

Regardless, DT's age doesn't concern me in the slightest this year, and I'm perfectly fine with his draft price this year.

Last year was arguably his floor, and he finished 15th overall.  He can currently be had as the 14th WR off the board, you're getting him at his floor price.  I think a case can be made for A.Rob, but K.Allen, A.Jeffery, and S.Watkins are the other 4 WRs behind DT, so I think you would be hard pressed to expect him going any lower.  With RB names behind him of Crow, McCaffrey, Mixon, and TyMont, you're looking at a LOT of uncertainty even in the big picture.  The QB situation caps his upside for sure, so if you're not interested in safe or boring in the 3rd, I completely understand.  He has a narrower range of outcomes, that doesn't reach as high as some of these alternatives, but also doesn't go as low as these alternatives.  It's entirely dependent on how you like to construct your team, and what time of risk/reward you're willing to take, and when you're willing to take it. 

 

I agree with you in PPR where he seems locked in at over 80 catches but the equation changes in standard where he was WR18 and finished with only 5 more points than Emmanuel Sanders.

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8 minutes ago, Chwf3rd said:

 

I agree with you in PPR where he seems locked in at over 80 catches but the equation changes in standard where he was WR18 and finished with only 5 more points than Emmanuel Sanders.

Fair but in standard format his ADP also falls to 18 so the logic still applies, you're buying him at his floor price.

 

If you don't think last year was his floor, then that's a different conversation, one in which I'm not particularly interested in being apart of.

 

If you think he does worse this year than last, he's not worth the ADP.  If you, like me, think he gets better, you gladly take the discount.  I'm not sure there's any other analysis needed beyond that in this specific players situation.  In my opinion DT is one of the few fantasy players that is this cut and dry.

 

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7 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

Fair but in standard format his ADP also falls to 18 so the logic still applies, you're buying him at his floor price.

 

If you don't think last year was his floor, then that's a different conversation, one in which I'm not particularly interested in being apart of.

 

If you think he does worse this year than last, he's not worth the ADP.  If you, like me, think he gets better, you gladly take the discount.  I'm not sure there's any other analysis needed beyond that in this specific players situation.  In my opinion DT is one of the few fantasy players that is this cut and dry.

 

 

I have him ranked above WR18 exactly because it seems unlikely that he performs worse than he did last year.  I wouldn't necessarily call a player's most likely outcome his floor but nonetheless it seems fairly safe that he'll finish as a WR2.  The real question with him revolves around personal philosophy and how to rank a player like DT where is seems highly unlikely that he finishes as a WR1 versus the other WRs around him (Keenan Allen, Alshon Jeffery, etc) who have the potential of turning in high-end WR1 seasons.  That's what makes him incredibly difficult for me to rank.

Edited by Chwf3rd
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On 7/17/2017 at 3:07 PM, Chwf3rd said:

 

I have him ranked above WR18 exactly because it seems unlikely that he performs worse than he did last year.  I wouldn't necessarily call a player's most likely outcome his floor but nonetheless it seems fairly safe that he'll finish as a WR2.  The real question with him revolves around personal philosophy and how to rank a player like DT where is seems highly unlikely that he finishes as a WR1 versus the other WRs around him (Keenan Allen, Alshon Jeffery, etc) who have the potential of turning in high-end WR1 seasons.  That's what makes him incredibly difficult for me to rank.

Those other WRs you mention also have a much higher potential to bust due to injury, never-mind the surrounding weapons around them that may cap their upside.

As stated, I agree with you on DT's floor.  However I feel he has a good shot to finish as a WR1.  

Personally I'd rather take the safety of DT over Allen and Jeffery in the 3rd round.     

 

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  • 3 weeks later...

seems like his adp is late 2nd though, 3rd would be nice but is a late 2nd too high on him? around that pick theres not many names that blow u away. hopkins, cooks, Watkins? eh, maybe cooks but feel like DT is safe at that adp?

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9 minutes ago, floppy said:

seems like his adp is late 2nd though, 3rd would be nice but is a late 2nd too high on him? around that pick theres not many names that blow u away. hopkins, cooks, Watkins? eh, maybe cooks but feel like DT is safe at that adp?

 

On FFC his ADP is currently the middle of the 3rd round which is up about a half round compared to a couple months ago.

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2 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

 

On FFC his ADP is currently the middle of the 3rd round which is up about a half round compared to a couple months ago.

 

Im looking at espn ppr  and also fantasypros ppr listing. ill check their list too

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I like DT. He's shown an established floor of 90 rec and 1,000 yards. He says he's over this hip thing, which is an obvious plus if true. Given that he's four months from 30 years old it's not great that he had a nagging hip injury last year, but it was good to see he could still produce at a wr2 rate even with that. The big-time upside is probably gone, but he'll still be a target hog, so a 100-1200-8 season isn't out of the question. While I said he has so far shown a floor of 90-1000-5, there is the potential for Denver's QB's to tank him, and give him a Hopkins/ARob like plummet to the 80 rec, 900 yard range. The range of outcomes for me is probably anywhere from WR6 to WR26. He's in play for me in the early 3rd, and is my wr12/13.

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I just took him at 3.1 in a $150 FFPC Classic draft... I passed on Brandin Cooks and Deandre Hopkins. My theory is that if 90 receptions is what I perceive to be DT's floor, and 90 receptions is also what I perceive to be my "hope" for Cooks, I had to go against the grain and take DT. 

 

DT won't ever have to fight for looks like Cooks might. And DT is a specimen on the level of a Dez or AJ Green IMO (maybe just a hair below, but maybe not). I dunno, I could be wrong, and I'll feel dumb if Cooks is the breakout guy, but in the end I just felt that DT was being overlooked and that drafting him in that spot was a well-thought out decision. I know the Broncos QB situation is pretty iffy, but they seem decent enough to get DT his all-important looks. 

 

I guess we'll see what happens now. I passed on Gurley too. 

Edited by jetfan1983
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Siemian officially named starting QB. I think this bodes well for DT as Paxton Lynch is quite literally too stupid to see a wide open WR running right in front of him. Would have to imagine Mike McCoy will HOPEFULLY give DT a few screen plays per game too.

Edited by lolcopter
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40 minutes ago, lolcopter said:

Siemian officially named starting QB. I think this bodes well for DT as Paxton Lynch is quite literally too stupid to see a wide open WR running right in front of him. Would have to imagine Mike McCoy will HOPEFULLY give DT a few screen plays per game too.

 

Like your optimism. Mine has waned in the last couple days. I was hoping Lynch would show us something, but he hasn't and now we're down to Siemian or busto. Kind of a scary position, but hopefully he improves this year. Pretty brutal first year, but there's still hope here he can still get DT 95-1100-7. That said, and I know people think PFF is kinda stupid, but Siemian had a 56.2 grade. Makes me nervous. 

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15 minutes ago, jetfan1983 said:

 

Like your optimism. Mine has waned in the last couple days. I was hoping Lynch would show us something, but he hasn't and now we're down to Siemian or busto. Kind of a scary position, but hopefully he improves this year. Pretty brutal first year, but there's still hope here he can still get DT 95-1100-7. That said, and I know people think PFF is kinda stupid, but Siemian had a 56.2 grade. Makes me nervous. 

3400/18tds 10ints while missing several games and getting next to no protection.   In basically his rookie year.   

 

As far as running an offense efficiently and getting targets to his best playmakers- he's a massive upgrade over Lynch.    

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I have my doubts about Siemian, but if the offensive line can at least provide him some time this season he should have no problem distributing the ball effectively. Oddly enough, I think Siemian-DT is a better fit anyway, as DT's strengths are his size and speed in space. He's never been much of a deep ball specialist so it's not like he'll be missing out on all that much with a weaker armed QB.

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10 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

3400/18tds 10ints while missing several games and getting next to no protection.   In basically his rookie year.   

 

As far as running an offense efficiently and getting targets to his best playmakers- he's a massive upgrade over Lynch.    

Yea, not bad raw numbers, I know he would've had like 3900 had he played sixteen games. Still, I was hoping we'd have two shots at a good QB for DT, but now we're down to one, and that makes this a bit shakier I think.

 

Hopefully he gets better tho. A lot of QBs stink their first year and then make a nice step forward in year two. Fingers crossed as an already DT owner. And I know you don't think he stinks based on last year's numbers for essentially a rookie QB, but he did leave a lot of yards out there last year. Hopefully he's better this year. He might be. Hoping anyway.  

Edited by jetfan1983
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DT not getting much love as hes not a very sexy pick.  Fitz was the same way for a couple of years.  I guess the question is does he remain a consistent borderline WR1 or is this the beginning of a drop off.  qb play and age both working against him.  sheer skill set and athleticism obviously the pros.  which way do people think his season will go....

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3 minutes ago, ASHLANDARROWS1992 said:
On 7/17/2017 at 7:01 AM, boltup15 said:

 

Really? I thought he was going in the early first?

 

On 7/17/2017 at 7:01 AM, boltup15 said:

 

Really? I thought he was going in the early first?

 

3 minutes ago, ASHLANDARROWS1992 said:

 

 

correct, if you are playing in a 36 team league

 

 

Those are the worst......5 round in I am debating which defense I want to use in my flex

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