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2017 MLB Trade Rumors and Deadline Thread


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12 minutes ago, STLSU said:

It also shows that the FO is not doing their HW on market rates.  One of the CWS brass also stated CHC overpaid for Quintana based on other offers.

 

I know we're getting off thread topic here a bit but...

 

If Quintana was a rental then yea it's a severe over payment, however, with Quintana a controllable pitcher, good age, lots of tread left on that arm, and fits into the Cubs game plan. Throw out the bottom 2 prospects the White Sox got because lets face it we have no idea of what their long term trajectory is. Cease and Jimenez were the coveted players from the Cubs that they received. None of us have zero idea what Cease becomes. SP or RP, durable? who knows. Consistent? Who knows. Does he stick in MLB long-term? Who knows. As for Jimenez he's ripping up the minors and looks like a future stud ( IMO Quintana is a stud). So....hmmm I can't say its a bad trade on either side. The Cubs have the team NOW to win again, and for the forseeable future they are ( should be ) consistent contenders. You have the goods in the lower level minor leagues to keep that train rolling and work more trades etc, you do it. The0 / Jed zero'd in on a guy they want and they went and got him. Period. Kudos to them!

Edited by Dugout Legend
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9 minutes ago, STLSU said:

It also shows that the FO is not doing their HW on market rates.  One of the CWS brass also stated CHC overpaid for Quintana based on other offers.

 

I overpay on tons of trades. I find my target and pay what I need to to get him. I don't overpay to the extent That i hurt my team but I make sure to get the guy I want. I'll just assume this is also what Theo does because it makes me feel better to think that. 

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I remember encountering this over on the Quintana thread when sugggesting the Cubs overpaid for him - I think it has actually become typical to "overpay" when it comes to win-now teams hoping to win a WS.  They're willing to do so, as long as it creates a genuinely improved chance of winning it all.  Maybe it's a semantical issue - but to put it simply, teams are giving up a lot of wins over replacement over the life of a deal for a chance to win it all.

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I mean if you trying to never lose an inch of market value in a trade. Then you should never pursue highly coveted assets. Because you are competing with 28 other GMs and the more notable assets have lots of suitors. The team will always take the one they like best, which is usually the over-pay. They are not in it to make the most fair trade. Its always the best for them.

 

In the pursuit of winning a WS. You can't always take that approach if you have glaring needs.

Edited by Slatykamora
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To just add to my previous post, front offices are - correctly - realizing that not all wins are created equal.  If Jimenez/Cease theoretically give you 10 wins, and Quintana only gives you 3, if those three come this year, amidst these circumstances, they are invaluable - making the "overpay" a wise decision.

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Most trades can easily be evaluated using a hard-and-fast surplus value formula that approximates how much each side will gain(or lose in the case of bad contracts).

 

The problem with this, especially at the deadline, is exactly what @BMcP talks about-- not all wins are created equal. Even when accounting for the time value of money, additional value that increase a team's chances of making the playoffs in a given year has more value than future wins. 

 

And to expand on his point, I don't think the public has a great way of evaluating how much a player can impact a team within the playoffs, because if regular season value when you are at the sweet spot on the win curve is worth more, then postseason value when you are at a similar spot is necessarily greater.

 

Of course, this calculation will depend on the team. But back to last year's Chapman deal-- for the Cubs in 2016, who were 1) a virtual lock for the playoffs at the deadline at the time, 2) the most championship-starved team in the history of American sports and 3) led by a GM whose legacy would be forever cemented by guiding a second team out of a legendary championship drought, I honestly believe that their internal calculations may have indicated that even if they were losing tens of millions of raw surplus value, it was easily justifiable. 

 

EDIT: (And yes, Theo isn't technically the GM-- but the point remains the same)

Edited by Rabbit Maranville
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I don't blame Beane one single bit. You have several teams who wants a pitcher he has, some of those teams are big market teams with prize prospects. You make those teams out bid each other till you land the best deal possible, and you use those teams against each other, even expanding the truth is possible. As in the Dodgers are offering this, that , and this...Speaking of desperation, that is exactly what Beane hopes happens here since the deadline draws near...

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6 hours ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

Kinda did... He said that if Hand isn't dealt, the GM should be fired. But what if the GM can't get a deal that the posters deems "good enough"? He'll stil want him fired.

Hand is a relief pitcher having an incredible year that will most likely not be repeated and the Padres will loose the value that they have now. it is the gm job to find the best offer available. The padres need so much help in many areas so i am sure that he can find a good deal that will help his team. Look at the whitesox for example not trading Quintana in the off season and waiting until now. Yes they got some good prospects but possibly getting Gallo could have been team changing.

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4 hours ago, dinhead said:

Hand is a relief pitcher having an incredible year that will most likely not be repeated and the Padres will loose the value that they have now. it is the gm job to find the best offer available. The padres need so much help in many areas so i am sure that he can find a good deal that will help his team. Look at the whitesox for example not trading Quintana in the off season and waiting until now. Yes they got some good prospects but possibly getting Gallo could have been team changing.

Eloy Jimenez and Dylan Cease is an absolute haul for Quintana....Jimenez does have the potential to be a franchise changing player.

 

A guy who barely can hit over the mendoza line, will strikeout out 200+ times a year.....but hit's the ball 500 ft on occasion is not a franchise changing player (Gallo).  I get the power.....but his value goes down when power is up throughout all of MLB.

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3 minutes ago, disasterisk said:

 

They won the world series. So again, lol. 

 

So you completely missed the point and now you're doubling down?

 

The fact that the Cubs went on to win the World Series has nothing to do with whether or not it was a huge overpay for Chapman at the time ( which it was, according to virtually everyone who follows these things). 

 

Edited by absknicks
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1 hour ago, afgolfman666 said:

Eloy Jimenez and Dylan Cease is an absolute haul for Quintana....Jimenez does have the potential to be a franchise changing player.

 

A guy who barely can hit over the mendoza line, will strikeout out 200+ times a year.....but hit's the ball 500 ft on occasion is not a franchise changing player (Gallo).  I get the power.....but his value goes down when power is up throughout all of MLB.

Value is apple to oranges when comparing a guy who can play 3B to a guy stuck to corner OF that isn't projected to be a good defender there.  

 

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Wonder if the results of Price's MRI will dictate whether the Red Sox make a play for someone like Darvish, Gray, or Verlander.  I would think any deal with Darvish or Gray starts with Groome or Chavis and maybe includes a Dalbec or Travis as well.

Edited by jmoney23
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33 minutes ago, jmoney23 said:

Wonder if the results of Price's MRI will dictate whether the Red Sox make a play for someone like Darvish, Gray, or Verlander.  I would think any deal with Darvish or Gray starts with Groome or Chavis and maybe includes a Dalbec or Travis as well.

 

Darvish has Boston on his no trade list

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3 hours ago, absknicks said:

 

So you completely missed the point and now you're doubling down?

 

The fact that the Cubs went on to win the World Series has nothing to do with whether or not it was a huge overpay for Chapman at the time ( which it was, according to virtually everyone who follows these things). 

 

 

I didn't miss any point. MLB teams exist to win championships.

 

The Cubs trading for Chapman was a major reason why they won the title last season. That bullpen with Rondon and Strop on the back end wasn't going to cut it. They gave up prospects carrying unknown outcomes for a player that could put them over the top. Which is exactly what Chapman did.

 

Are you a Cubs fan? Do you have any idea of the magnitude of what that title meant to Cubs fans? No, you don't have a damn clue. So no, it wasn't a gross overpay.

 

 

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5 minutes ago, disasterisk said:

 

I didn't miss any point. MLB teams exist to win championships.

 

The Cubs trading for Chapman was a major reason why they won the title last season. That bullpen with Rondon and Strop on the back end wasn't going to cut it. They gave up prospects carrying unknown outcomes for a player that could put them over the top. Which is exactly what Chapman did.

 

Are you a Cubs fan? Do you have any idea of the magnitude of what that title meant to Cubs fans? No, you don't have a damn clue. So no, it wasn't a gross overpay.

 

 

I'd gladly trade any number of players who might be special to help my team win a WS. The guys they traded could always turn into nothing.

 

"A prospect might be good, but a WS win lasts a lifetime."

Debeers or something

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1 hour ago, disasterisk said:

 

I didn't miss any point. MLB teams exist to win championships.

 

The Cubs trading for Chapman was a major reason why they won the title last season. That bullpen with Rondon and Strop on the back end wasn't going to cut it. They gave up prospects carrying unknown outcomes for a player that could put them over the top. Which is exactly what Chapman did.

 

Are you a Cubs fan? Do you have any idea of the magnitude of what that title meant to Cubs fans? No, you don't have a damn clue. So no, it wasn't a gross overpay.

 

 

 

This.   

 

The point is to win the whole damn thing.  They did what they had to do to get it done. 

 

The Giants wish they would have paid the price for a Chapman, Miller, or Melancon last season.   They would have won the division and IMO had all the other elements last year to win it all.   Their lack of a closer and unwillingness to pay the price crippled them. 

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philosophical question for the group.. 

can you actually overpay for something if you win the world series (or reach whatever end goal was desired)? 

wouldn't an overpay only apply if you paid for something and it didn't net you the results you were seeking?

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Just now, osb_tensor said:

philosophical question for the group.. 

can you actually overpay for something if you win the world series (or reach whatever end goal was desired)? 

wouldn't an overpay only apply if you paid for something and it didn't net you the results you were seeking?

 

What if it won you the world series but it cost you future world series ? 

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