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Sean Newcomb 2017 Outlook


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Is Colon actually a baseball player? Hard to fathom...I know it's only my second season playing but this guy doesn't look like he's very good.

 

any chances Newcomb isn't as good as his last start? 

Edited by Kamura
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2 hours ago, Kamura said:

any chances Newcomb isn't as good as his last start? 

 

No, be very careful with Newcomb.  If he sticks around there are going to be some owners who get monumnetally burned.  His K/9 in the minors has been over 5.  You will not survive in the majors this way.  Sure, against the Padres or Giants you can because they are maybe the worst two offenses in the entire league.  Vs mediocre offenses expect what he did against Miami (6 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 4 BB, 3 K) which will slowly kill your ratios and against good teams expect some major setbacks.  That's all. 

 

 

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30 minutes ago, merlin401 said:

 

No, be very careful with Newcomb.  If he sticks around there are going to be some owners who get monumnetally burned.  His K/9 in the minors has been over 5.  You will not survive in the majors this way.  Sure, against the Padres or Giants you can because they are maybe the worst two offenses in the entire league.  Vs mediocre offenses expect what he did against Miami (6 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 4 BB, 3 K) which will slowly kill your ratios and against good teams expect some major setbacks.  That's all.

 

I assume you mean BB/9 over 5. Just clarifying for others.

 

That said, this is absolutely not the first time that a player has come up to the majors and outperformed his minor league numbers. Remember that Francisco Lindor was basically a glove only prospect and no one believed the power right after his call-up. Now, Newcomb is still a rookie, so you can expect some bad outing sprinkled amongst the good.

 

10.8% SwStr% is good and probably indicates that his K/9 will go higher. His LOB% and BABIP, however, indicate some potential negative regression in the outlook.

 

To me, Newcomb is a 6/7 starter in a 12 team league where you pick your spots. In the NL East, there are plenty of appropriate match-ups to target. His game against the Marlins came during the hottest run the Marlins have had all year and the poor results were basically the result of one bad final inning (2 hits, 3 walks and a wild pitch). That is really the only bad inning in 4 starts. Definitely a hold and use in good match-ups for me.

 

I will not be running him out there in Houston next week, however.

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1 minute ago, oswald737 said:

 

I assume you mean BB/9 over 5. Just clarifying for others.

 

That said, this is absolutely not the first time that a player has come up to the majors and outperformed his minor league numbers. Remember that Francisco Lindor was basically a glove only prospect and no one believed the power right after his call-up. Now, Newcomb is still a rookie, so you can expect some bad outing sprinkled amongst the good.

 

Yes, thank you, I meant BB/9.

 

I agree you often see guys come up and beat their minor league numbers.  But I can't think of any pitcher off hand with bad control in the minors who came up and suddenly had good control.  That's the one thing that MLB hitters will almost surely exploit soon enough.  I may be particularly sensitive to this because I play in a K:BB league, but if you look at his career MiLB BB/9 (4.8, and its even worse this year btw), there are only 3 qualified MLB pitchers this year who are above even 4.3 BB/9 (Chatwood, Miley and Volquez).  I think that shows how hard it will be to succeed or be useful.

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OK, nobody expected anything good from a start against the Dodgers, but 7 BB in 4.2 IP?  That's special.

 

I don't own him anywhere, just scouting the game log to see if he's worth picking up vs. the Phillies.  Ks or no Ks, I can't touch that.  It's amazing his ERA isn't in the Bauer range.

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