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What I gathered from Luhnow’s words is that right now they’re is not a big enough reason to call him up. They rank high offensively, they currently are in 1st place and more than likely will start pulling away from the other teams and they have no real glaring need at this point BUT if they hit a skid and start losing and the offense begins to struggle the sounding alarms may be too loud to ignore an eventful call up. The fact he said he could help us this year leads me to believe if things remain status quo he won’t be called up until Aug 31st or when they may have a doubleheader. 

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Statistically they are closer than people would like to admit but here are a few reasons why i'm more excited: Age relative to their opponents (21 vs 26), speed of advancement through the minors

Law is such a tool.  No one cares that he didn't have Alvarez in his top 100 prospects.  But, sitting there now, claiming he wouldn't add him, is pure cow dookie.  You made a mistake, Keith.  You miss

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40 minutes ago, Hatfieldodger said:

What I gathered from Luhnow’s words is that right now they’re is not a big enough reason to call him up. They rank high offensively, they currently are in 1st place and more than likely will start pulling away from the other teams and they have no real glaring need at this point BUT if they hit a skid and start losing and the offense begins to struggle the sounding alarms may be too loud to ignore an eventful call up. The fact he said he could help us this year leads me to believe if things remain status quo he won’t be called up until Aug 31st or when they may have a doubleheader. 

I agree with your reasoning but not with your conclusion that he won't be called up until the end of August. He's just been too good and I'm thinking we see him up before July.

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11 hours ago, knuckleheads said:

 

Uhmmm,  Alvarez has been playing the outfield for years now so there's not going to be much room for improvement.  Especially from now to whatever call up date you decide on.  If that's really you want there Luhnow then you might as well just trade him now because it's an invalid excuse...

Oddly enough never really thought of that, but I'm assuming the OF has been his main position in the minors even though this thread here says 1B?  If so, then you're right that the excuse that he needs to improve his defense is a crock of... you know.

Sure, it is true that they are one of the best offensive teams in the league even with no DH.  Still, even waiting until July or August seems a little silly when a guy is doing this good in AAA.  It's not likely to make much of any difference in his development, but it's pretty clear he has 0 left to prove in AAA.

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7 hours ago, herschel said:

People stashing in redraft?

 

Really tough decision.  This isn't just a hot streak he is absolutely demolishing the competition and they could clearly use him over White/Kemp.  That being said I have yet to find a beat writer/reporter associated with the Astros who is bullish on an imminent call.  You also have Luhnow in interviews talking about how Yordan needs to work on his LF defense and how the Astros don't need more offense right now etc etc.  I feel about as confident as you possibly could with a prospect that when/if Yordan gets the call he can be an impact fantasy bat.  Problem is I wouldn't be surprised if he stays down for months before getting the call. I hope not but reading the tea leaves it's definitely a possibility.

Have an NA spot or are in deeper keeper leagues? Run don't walk.  Have a deep bench with a free spot or are in round based keeper leagues?  I would lean towards grabbing him but can understand going either direction.  Most standard redrafts? Eh...I'm not so sure.

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Kyle
1:05
People seem to be making a big deal about you taking Yordan out of your top 100 based on the season he is having.  Even without much defensive value, the bat seems quite impactful. Do you want a redo yet?
 
Keith Law
1:05
No, I don't, and that's really the wrong way to ask that question.
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I used to value Law's input on prospects but this is just sad.  Makes him look super sensitive about being wrong.  I'm kind of surprised he even bothered taking the question because there is no good answer other than, "Yeah, I blew it by taking him out.  Projected him stuck behind Tucker in the short-term and having limited defensive value longterm but what he has done so far this year has been really exceptional.  He'll need to sustain a very high level of success with his bat to justify a top 100 position but it looks like he has the potential to do exactly that."

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Watching this guy get held back in the minors has become depressing.

It would be one thing if the Astros didn't have obvious black holes on their 25 man roster, but by my count they've got at least two of them.  

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58 minutes ago, Overlord said:

Watching this guy get held back in the minors has become depressing.

It would be one thing if the Astros didn't have obvious black holes on their 25 man roster, but by my count they've got at least two of them.  

It's not that he's need to fill a hole on the 25-man, he'd need to be in the starting 8 (not that he can't be).

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7 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:
Kyle
1:05
People seem to be making a big deal about you taking Yordan out of your top 100 based on the season he is having.  Even without much defensive value, the bat seems quite impactful. Do you want a redo yet?
 
Keith Law
1:05
No, I don't, and that's really the wrong way to ask that question.

 

Wonder what form this question would need to take in order to be said in the right way?   We all know that this prospecting stuff is hit and miss more often than not, that scouting isn't an exact science when recognizing major league talent (even when really good at it) so mistakes are going to be made.   Of course Law won't admit his mistake outright so you get what you get in smug responses.   He probably thinks it goes with his prickish persona that people love to hate as it sells well.  No big deal but what I note is that he's missed on players similar to Alvarez before, such as Franmil Reyes recently (think he said he lacked pitch recognition to be decent last year) so perhaps there's just a blind spot there...  

Edited by knuckleheads
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57 minutes ago, hypeiz4real said:

Well Law was higher on most on Wander this time last year and was the main reason I picked him up. 

 

So I'll give him some credit however the guy needs to own up to when he misses, we all miss. 

Just looked at my saved Klaw top 100 from last year.  He was not listed.

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24 minutes ago, exaulz said:

Law won’t admit to missing anything until Alvarez puts up a whole year of elite stats in the majors.

I don't have an issue with that. If he believes Alvarez is a fundamentally flawed player who will be exposed once he reaches the majors, what's he supposed to do here? Change everything because of a short but dominating run in the minors? I actually appreciate him sticking to his guns here if he believes his reasons and analysis are perfectly valid. We've seen well performing minor league guys come up and fizzle. From this very organization, even. I don't personally rank Alvarez as a guy to flop, but I can't pretend it's an impossible outcome.

 

In short, Law is doing exactly what he's supposed to. Standing by his projections instead of just going with the majority because it's what the people want.

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17 minutes ago, AnonymousRob said:

I don't have an issue with that. If he believes Alvarez is a fundamentally flawed player who will be exposed once he reaches the majors, what's he supposed to do here? Change everything because of a short but dominating run in the minors? I actually appreciate him sticking to his guns here if he believes his reasons and analysis are perfectly valid. We've seen well performing minor league guys come up and fizzle. From this very organization, even. I don't personally rank Alvarez as a guy to flop, but I can't pretend it's an impossible outcome.

 

In short, Law is doing exactly what he's supposed to. Standing by his projections instead of just going with the majority because it's what the people want.

Wold you be surprised to know that Keith Law ranked Yordan Alvarez #40 overall at the beginning of 2018, and after 2018 he jumped two levels and hit well at both and then Keith Law inexplicably dumped him out of his entire top 100?

He got bad intel from someone. Same with the fangraphs guys.  The fact that Law just half a** answers any Yordan question without detailed analysis is a tell that he's only as good as the people feeding him what to say. 

So is he sticking to his guns now after jumping ship without explanation? Seems dubious. It's not like any defensive concerns with Yordan changed dramatically between the two years. Even when Law ranked him at #40, he was never projected as a good defender, and always projected to move to 1b/DH

 

From his 2018 top rank of #40 overall 

"At 6-5, 225 pounds, he's big for anywhere but first base, but the Astros have tried him in left field in an attempt to add some versatility for whenever he's ready for the majors. "

Edited by brockpapersizer
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46 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

Wold you be surprised to know that Keith Law ranked Yordan Alvarez #40 overall at the beginning of 2018, and after 2018 he jumped two levels and hit well at both and then Keith Law inexplicably dumped him out of his entire top 100?

No, I wouldn't. Because it's been discussed here and other places constantly. I'm fine with Law saying he was wrong to drop him. I'm fine with him standing by his dropping the guy. Maybe he got bad Intel. Maybe he has legitimate reasons he's declining to share. 

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