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Yordan Alvarez 1B HOU


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Statistically they are closer than people would like to admit but here are a few reasons why i'm more excited: Age relative to their opponents (21 vs 26), speed of advancement through the minors

Law is such a tool.  No one cares that he didn't have Alvarez in his top 100 prospects.  But, sitting there now, claiming he wouldn't add him, is pure cow dookie.  You made a mistake, Keith.  You miss

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1 minute ago, Sonny_D said:

 

Pressure from this forum.....

Hahaha - we can certainly agree there. As I've stated, I'd love to see him in my fantasy lineups as well - it just feels like a much more difficult path to MLB AB's for him right now than, say, Keston Hiura - where he has a struggling player in front of him (Shaw), a 3 team race for the division (Brewers/Cubs/Cards) and of course, continued AAA production.

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1 hour ago, Dark One said:

I doubt it's due to Super 2 at all - they just don't have an urgent need for the call up to start his service time clock. They're 10 games over .500 (about to be 11) and are running away with the division.

Which is the reason they wait until after the Super 2 deadline??? 

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1 hour ago, aMediumPace said:

Which is the reason they wait until after the Super 2 deadline??? 

Barring injury or an unexpected long losing streak or depletion of offense, they likely won't have an urgent need then either. Starting his service clock isn't just about Super 2, it can also be about delaying arbitration eligibility to gain another year of team control. But again, they will still have logjam issues if they simply wait until Super 2 passes to call him up. My belief is that if they needed him now, they would call him up now. I'm not of the belief that they're keeping him down for financial reasons.

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This dude looks like a stud for sure, but reading all that stuff above ^ I'm in no league who can wait on what the Astros *may* do. Nobody knows but chasing these minor leagues just isn't even fun anymore, IMO...  Super 2 this, no need the team is winning, etc.....

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20 minutes ago, Z06vette said:

This dude looks like a stud for sure, but reading all that stuff above ^ I'm in no league who can wait on what the Astros *may* do. Nobody knows but chasing these minor leagues just isn't even fun anymore, IMO...  Super 2 this, no need the team is winning, etc.....

 

your perspective should be different depending on whether you're in a redraft or a keeper league and whether you have an NA slot.  

if you're in a keeper league with an NA slot, then i would say that chasing these minor league studs is the definition of fun.

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10 minutes ago, tesla said:

 

your perspective should be different depending on whether you're in a redraft or a keeper league and whether you have an NA slot.  

if you're in a keeper league with an NA slot, then i would say that chasing these minor league studs is the definition of fun.

I use to be in a keeper league so yeah, it was much funnier then. I'm not in a keeper league anymore and the chase isn't as much as back then.  Even then, many of these guys it takes a few years for them to adjust and become what many expect them to be. Not many Ryan Braun's come out the gate killing it. I see your point and actually for *most* in a situation like yours it is much funnier. I recall the days I loved it. Landing that guy whose jersey you have in your avatar coming out of single A  is one time I recall to be a very exciting time, for sure.

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it is called prospect fatigue. First you have to wait. Then you have to hope they don't Carter Kieboom themselves back to AAA in a month. Even the sure fire studs Eloy, Vladdy, Tatis are not playing like top 200 overall players. I do play in a keeper and loading your team with redraft players is as much a crapshoot as a bunch of minor leaguers. Minor leaguers make much better trade chips though. All of Houston's minor leaguers have to know that if they deserve a promotion a job will be there for them. Otherwise what is the point? Going to the Round Rock HOF?

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I can't recall the podcast but it was recent and whoever it was said we are not talking about a 40 homer guy here but more like a .260 hitter, 25 homer type of hitter.   Really not bad  stats at all but definitely not what someone might refer to as elite (and what probably a lot of people are banking on).   However, I do feel like it's harder to judge a guy like Alvarez' upside vs say Nate Lowe (who I would peg for that similar line).  Just wondering what people might think about this?  

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24 minutes ago, knuckleheads said:

I can't recall the podcast but it was recent and whoever it was said we are not talking about a 40 homer guy here but more like a .260 hitter, 25 homer type of hitter.   Really not bad  stats at all but definitely not what someone might refer to as elite (and what probably a lot of people are banking on).   However, I do feel like it's harder to judge a guy like Alvarez' upside vs say Nate Lowe (who I would peg for that similar line).  Just wondering what people might think about this?  

 

I think it's merely, one person's opinion.  For every one like this, I've read two to three, that claim otherwise.  Truth is, no one knows with any degree of certainty.  At this point, he's a lottery ticket.  I like lottery tickets.  Most times, they don't hit.  But when they do, oh boy.  While he's putting up astronomical numbers at AAA, that guarantees nothing.  However, I certainly like his odds much better, than some dude hitting .280 with 4 hr's and 13 rbi's through 30 games.  If you have room on your bench, he's certainly worth an add.  If not, it's certainly a risky proposition.  As with all prospects, time will tell.

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1 hour ago, knuckleheads said:

I can't recall the podcast but it was recent and whoever it was said we are not talking about a 40 homer guy here but more like a .260 hitter, 25 homer type of hitter.   Really not bad  stats at all but definitely not what someone might refer to as elite (and what probably a lot of people are banking on).   However, I do feel like it's harder to judge a guy like Alvarez' upside vs say Nate Lowe (who I would peg for that similar line).  Just wondering what people might think about this?  

Didnt vlad go from "very good" prospect to "best prospect ever"  after an awesome season in AA last year?  Not saying that yordano is vlad,just that a year makes a huge difference.

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1 hour ago, Trey5956 said:

Went 2-4 with another bomb after a 3 hit game to bring his average back over .400, now with 47 RBIs and 15 HRs in 33 games .402/.490/.869/1.358. 

 

Well if he can't hit .500 with a minimum of 1 HR and 2 RBI per game there's no use calling him up

 

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16 hours ago, Dark One said:

Hahaha - we can certainly agree there. As I've stated, I'd love to see him in my fantasy lineups as well - it just feels like a much more difficult path to MLB AB's for him right now than, say, Keston Hiura - where he has a struggling player in front of him (Shaw), a 3 team race for the division (Brewers/Cubs/Cards) and of course, continued AAA production. 

I agree with this. I think Tucker is what really clogs up Alvarez's path since he's already on the 40 man. I think White is a bigger pumpkin than Shaw, who should be given ample opportunity to figure it out.

Over the last month Tucker is hitting .282 with 9 HR and 4 SB (22:7 K:BB in 28 games). Tucker is hitting .316 the last week with a pair of HR and a SB. Tucker is already on the 40 man. I think Tucker gets the first chance at meaningful AB's.
 

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12 hours ago, knuckleheads said:

I can't recall the podcast but it was recent and whoever it was said we are not talking about a 40 homer guy here but more like a .260 hitter, 25 homer type of hitter.   Really not bad  stats at all but definitely not what someone might refer to as elite (and what probably a lot of people are banking on).   However, I do feel like it's harder to judge a guy like Alvarez' upside vs say Nate Lowe (who I would peg for that similar line).  Just wondering what people might think about this?  

I just don't get where these kind of comments come from. He's hit 35 homers in his last 120 games, batting like .350 over that span. I mean, no, he's not going to be THAT in the majors, but to act like it's impossible he's a high 30 HR guy with a strong .290 BA or so is just asinine. A lot of guys possess that potential. It's an incredibly lofty expectation. Saying he's a .260 hitter with 25 HR is just lazy, because what he's shown is he can be so much more. So they're saying he's more like Mike Moustakas... ok? Guys like him, Nate Lowe, etc. have all the potential in the world. He could very well be a 25 hr, .260 guy, or he could be a 30 hr, .270 guy, or he could be a 35 homer, .285 guy.

 

How many guys thought Bregman would be a 30 hr, .290 guy?

How many thought be a 35 homer, .280 guy?

Alvarez is huge and kills the ball. Being a lefty doesn't hurt. I just hate seeing where guys can only see a guys floor or ceiling. There's a range with every player. In 3 years Alvarez could be Freddie Freeman, Anthony Rizzo, etc, or he could be Edwin E, or he could be Yordan the kroger bag boy.

The point is, this dude has some tantalizing upside. Nothing he's done suggests he's a .260/25 guy.

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18 hours ago, aMediumPace said:

They can’t just come right out and admit it’s because of Super 2. 

 

hasn't the super 2 already passed? isn't that why the Blue Jays already called up Vlad?

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3 minutes ago, SpecialFNK said:

 

hasn't the super 2 already passed? isn't that why the Blue Jays already called up Vlad?

 

No Super 2 doesn't pass until sometime in June.


The Jays got an extra year of control by holding Vlad down for first two weeks (+) of the season

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Just now, bigbossman said:

 

No Super 2 doesn't pass until sometime in June.


The Jays got an extra year of control by holding Vlad down for first two weeks (+) of the season

 

why can't the Astros also get an extra year if they called up Alvarez now?

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2 minutes ago, SpecialFNK said:

 

why can't the Astros also get an extra year if they called up Alvarez now?

 

 

They can but waiting until Super 2 passes gives them an extra year before Yordan is arbitration-eligible

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2 minutes ago, bigbossman said:

 

 

They can but waiting until Super 2 passes gives them an extra year before Yordan is arbitration-eligible

 

I feel like I'm missing something.

the Jays already got the extra year before arbitration by waiting to call up Vlad until when they did. so why do the Astros have to wait longer to get the same extra year of control for Alvarez?

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1 minute ago, SpecialFNK said:

 

I feel like I'm missing something.

the Jays already got the extra year before arbitration by waiting to call up Vlad until when they did. so why do the Astros have to wait longer to get the same extra year of control for Alvarez?

 

You are conflating the extra year of FREE AGENCY that the Jays received by holding Vlad down vs. the extra year of ARBITRATION that the Astros will get by not allowing Yordan to achieve SUPER TWO status which would allow him to be eligible for arbitration after two years of service time vs. the regular three year minimum.

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1 minute ago, bigbossman said:

 

You are conflating the extra year of FREE AGENCY that the Jays received by holding Vlad down vs. the extra year of ARBITRATION that the Astros will get by not allowing Yordan to achieve SUPER TWO status which would allow him to be eligible for arbitration after two years of service time vs. the regular three year minimum.

 

To clarify- SUPER TWO is given to the top 22 percent of players, in terms of service time, for players that have amassed between two and three years in the Majors.


These players are eligible for arbitration in year 3 vs other players who fall outside the top 22 not being eligible until year 4 of their careers...

So it can save the team millions of dollars if the player is very good by not having to jack their salary to avoid the player taking them to arbitration.

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6 minutes ago, bigbossman said:

 

You are conflating the extra year of FREE AGENCY that the Jays received by holding Vlad down vs. the extra year of ARBITRATION that the Astros will get by not allowing Yordan to achieve SUPER TWO status which would allow him to be eligible for arbitration after two years of service time vs. the regular three year minimum.

 

thanks for the clarification.

if this is what the Astros are waiting for then that sucks.

 

.

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