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Aaron Jones 2017 Season Outlook


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With an extremely unproven backfield in Green Bay, Aaron Jones has an opportunity to be a fantasy football asset as the season progresses. Jones is plus athlete who was extremely productive in college.

 

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Jones had solid production last season (229-1773-17, 28-233-3), but UTEP was 4-8 against a fairly weak schedule (2-6 in conference).

If these stats are compiled in garbage time, then how good is he really?

 

If UTEP's running game was strong early in games, they would have been able to set the tone and be a more competitive team.

I am not sure I saw him break any tackles in the above tape... all these guys can run fast through open holes.

The big plays are nice, but can he grind out any tough yards in the pros and keep the chains moving?

He might be able to carve out a role in GB, but I am not convinced he can develop into more.

 

Edited by Winky
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9 hours ago, petekrum said:

You don't think Montgomery gets the bulk of the RB work?

After Montgomery helped me get a top seed in the playoffs last year I'm actually a pretty big believer. However, he's still largely unproven and has only rushed the ball over 9 times once in his career.

 

Jones is just a flier at this point and worth a look in dynasty/keeper formats. I'd still put the odds on Montgomery being the lead back for the Packers in 2017 but if he falters Jones could have a huge opportunity. 

 

At the end of the day all of Green Bays running backs are extremely unproven and I could see any of them becoming "the guy" (at least the leader in a committee).

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There's a school of thought that says that Aaron Jones is a better RB prospect than Jamaal Williams.

 

This is precisely the school of thought that led to Jordan Howard being undervalued. Pad level into contact, contact balance, footwork, gear shifting, decision-making, and decisiveness matter as much or more than pretty much any other running trait.

 

Honestly, "Running back" is a misnomer. For athletes of this quality, the position is really "Jogging back". It's about reading and efficiently manipulating relatively moving bodies in limited space. A guy needs to have sufficient athleticism to do that. Beyond that, though, extra athleticism doesn't do a whole lot. RB is not a position where Sparq-freaks do that well. Jamaal Williams is much, much better at the skills that matter.

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It's not often people post names and I have to say "who?" 

 

So congrats. You got me on this one. Never heard of this guy before this thread. Stats look solid though. 

 

I finally started to slowly come around on TyM. Still won't draft him, but I'm coming around on him. 

 

Jamaal just isn't a guy I thought much of coming out. He's a JAG IMO. The points above about not needing to be athletic are noted and to each their own, I respect everyone's opinion, however if you're not an athlete I don't want you playing skill positions on my fantasy football team. 

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I really liked Aaron Jones.....and then the Packers drafted him. Their RB situation is just way to dicey right now to make a judgement, so it's a wait and see for me. I'll definitely be following their preseason for signs of who will have which role. I was really hoping that he'd end up in Indianapolis, but now he's just 1 of 4 unproven backs in Green Bay.

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8 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

It's not often people post names and I have to say "who?" 

 

So congrats. You got me on this one. Never heard of this guy before this thread. Stats look solid though. 

 

I finally started to slowly come around on TyM. Still won't draft him, but I'm coming around on him. 

 

Jamaal just isn't a guy I thought much of coming out. He's a JAG IMO. The points above about not needing to be athletic are noted and to each their own, I respect everyone's opinion, however if you're not an athlete I don't want you playing skill positions on my fantasy football team. 

 

I agree with you entirely that I want guys on my team who are talented. I'm a mostly-dynasty guy and even within a single season, I believe that talent usually wins. I just stopped defining athleticism and talent using combine or Pro Day numbers a few years ago and my player evaluation has improved markedly.

 

Watch Jamaal's games against Toledo and Wyoming. They do not support the notion that he's a sub-par athlete. His senior year tape is just a continuous stream of him looking like an absolute man among boys.

 

Forget combine numbers. Based upon the tape of those games, you'd say the guy is quick, fast, sudden, and agile on an actual football field, and particularly when adjusted for size. He's an excellent athlete because he knows when and how to use his physical tools. The stopwatch says he's not that fast. Watching him beat defenders to the spot all day says he is.

 

As an additional note, his training regimen is heavily weighted toward hill running. That shows up in the fourth quarter and it shows up on contact. I doubt he gets too many opportunities this year to get into "grinding the defense down mode", but it's firmly in his toolkit. To me, he's a twice-as-talented James Starks and an exceedingly good fit for the run scheme in GB.

 

I love him in dynasty, and I think he and Montgomery have roughly even roles in this offense from pretty much day one. All the time on here I see people talking about Kareem Hunt and how he's going to win a job (which I doubt). In my estimation, they should be talking about Williams.

 

 

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Plan B or cuff. Monty's job to lose. But until Monty proves that he can handle the role, very fluid situation. All else being equal I like Montgomery better.

 

Dark Horse: I would also keep an eye on Davante Mays. Largely unknown, very impressive measurables. 5'10" 230 w/4.5 speed and nice jump cuts. Probably deserves his own thread. After watching him he could definitely pull off an upset if things broke right.

 

 

According to Gil Brandt of NFL.com, Mays (5-10, 230) posted 40-yard dash times of 4.51 and 4.44 during his Utah State pro day. He also had a 40.5″ vertical leap, 10-9 broad jump, 22 bench press reps and a 7.34-second 3-cone time. The Packers were attendance for the pro day.

 

Edited by pikerbkb
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1 hour ago, irvnasty said:

 

I agree with you entirely that I want guys on my team who are talented. I'm a mostly-dynasty guy and even within a single season, I believe that talent usually wins. I just stopped defining athleticism and talent using combine or Pro Day numbers a few years ago and my player evaluation has improved markedly.

 

Watch Jamaal's games against Toledo and Wyoming. They do not support the notion that he's a sub-par athlete. His senior year tape is just a continuous stream of him looking like an absolute man among boys.

 

Forget combine numbers. Based upon the tape of those games, you'd say the guy is quick, fast, sudden, and agile on an actual football field, and particularly when adjusted for size. He's an excellent athlete because he knows when and how to use his physical tools. The stopwatch says he's not that fast. Watching him beat defenders to the spot all day says he is.

 

As an additional note, his training regimen is heavily weighted toward hill running. That shows up in the fourth quarter and it shows up on contact. I doubt he gets too many opportunities this year to get into "grinding the defense down mode", but it's firmly in his toolkit. To me, he's a twice-as-talented James Starks and an exceedingly good fit for the run scheme in GB.

 

I love him in dynasty, and I think he and Montgomery have roughly even roles in this offense from pretty much day one. All the time on here I see people talking about Kareem Hunt and how he's going to win a job (which I doubt). In my estimation, they should be talking about Williams.

 

 

 

A subpar athlete (with no receiving chops) facing teams stocked with future accountants is going to make him look fast and agile. Not buying it. Hopefully he proves me wrong. 

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1 hour ago, boltup15 said:

 

Those are some top tier defenses. 

 

No, they're not, not that it matters in any way.

 

1. It is possible and indeed always necessary to evaluate a prospect relative to his competition.

2. Time and space don't change. One can evaluate the use of space and timing and suddenness against any competition.

3. This same criticism applies to Kareem Hunt and Corey Davis. More so, actually, in the case of Davis.

4. This same criticism applies to Williams's teammates and blockers.

5. ....

 

I'm not sure what the point of your post was. I would imagine anyone on this website is familiar with most college football programs and their rough relative strength. You're adding nothing in the way of context to what I posted.

 

Perhaps more importantly, your post is yet again other-directed. 

 

You seem like a knowledgable and capable fantasy player. I am interested to know your impressions of Williams, his game, his chances in Green Bay, etc. I don't care at all for your evaluation of my process, and I can't imagine most other users do either. If you put your convictions out there, they're adding to the conversation and perhaps someone (maybe even I) will learn something. If you're just taking pot-shots at my evaluations without the cajones to share your own... save your keystrokes.

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14 hours ago, irvnasty said:

I am interested to know your impressions of Williams, his game, his chances in Green Bay, etc.

 

He's a one cut runner with no patience or vision. He's not fast enough to get around the outside, and not agile enough to make defenders miss in the backfield or to change directions if he needs too. His ceiling is as a two down runner, but more importantly most likely just a goal line/short yardage situation back. Fortunately for him he went to a team with an extremely poor depth chart so he could see the field from day 1. However Montgomery is the back to own and Jaamal is nothing but a handcuff on a team that loves to throw the ball (and he's not very good as a receiver, cuts out of breaks slowly, isn't able to get separation from a linebacker). 

 

14 hours ago, irvnasty said:

No, they're not, not that it matters in any way.

 

It does matter especially when in the games you are referencing, Jamaal is bigger than the D-Line he going up against. Of course he's going to look faster, or quicker than players who will never be in the NFL. If Jamaal was an elite RB, he would have put up better stats against some of the tougher teams he played in UCLA and Mississippi State. His weaknesses come to light in the Mississippi game. 

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1 hour ago, boltup15 said:

If Jamaal was an elite RB, he would have put up better stats against some of the tougher teams he played in UCLA and Mississippi State. His weaknesses come to light in the Mississippi game. 

 

He did destroy Michigan State in a game where he was having O-lineman thrown into his face in the backfield. He simply wore them out and broke them in the second half.

 

Michigan State wasn't a world-beating defense, but they certainly had better talent and athleticism than BYU did.

 

Mississippi State was the low point for him. They were in the backfield all day and on that occasion, he was unable to overcome that.

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On 6/8/2017 at 11:26 AM, irvnasty said:

There's a school of thought that says that Aaron Jones is a better RB prospect than Jamaal Williams.

 

This is precisely the school of thought that led to Jordan Howard being undervalued. Pad level into contact, contact balance, footwork, gear shifting, decision-making, and decisiveness matter as much or more than pretty much any other running trait.

 

Honestly, "Running back" is a misnomer. For athletes of this quality, the position is really "Jogging back". It's about reading and efficiently manipulating relatively moving bodies in limited space. A guy needs to have sufficient athleticism to do that. Beyond that, though, extra athleticism doesn't do a whole lot. RB is not a position where Sparq-freaks do that well. Jamaal Williams is much, much better at the skills that matter.

 

I don't know if I agree with this. But its definitely an interesting and unique thought process.

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2 hours ago, Truth11 said:

I need help, Aaron jones now has out played williams in last 2 preaseason games. Who would you rather roster now Jones or Williams??

 

Williams still seems pretty firmly entrenched as the RB2 in GB. Jones was playing for a roster spot last night. 

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The GB depth chart (past TyMont) is simply a function of draft order. They kept the 3 rookie picks and cut all the drafted WRs mostly because they weren't able to get enough of a look at them in game. Jones certainly did flash more though--but against lesser competition. Still carries are going to be available and they kept them all because they are very unsure if Ty can hold up--as they should be. My lotto ticket is firmly in the Jones camp, he's a complete back.

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I love these lotto ticket RB stashes in my really deep league but not sure about this guy in GB. I didn't follow him or Williams in college but looking at videos of them Williams just looks bigger, faster, more explosive. It's not a matter of competition because the video I watched Williams looked just as explosive against West Virginia as he did against Wyoming. 

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