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Aaron Jones 2017 Season Outlook


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1 minute ago, FreakFries said:

I was advised that A Jones was a 10 teams league and up pick up in all formats last night. 

 

Who do I email regarding my instant-bust FAAB cash refund?

Nobody. You hold him for a week and then give those fine folks 10% of your winnings come seasons end. 

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4 minutes ago, the_dying_dream said:

So do I, but most NFL coaches don't operate that way

Yes they do... all the time. This is a fallacy. 

Coaches get paid to win and they want to win. They will play their best guys most of the time. It's how randos like Jordan Howard and Jay Ajayi become RB1s out of nowhere. MM is no different. Look at literally last season for evidence of this at the RB position. The swapped out like 3 RBs before settling on TyMont: Lacy, CMike, and I think another guy. 

 

For fantasy purposes you are looking for a guy like Jones in a shaky RB rotation to prove himself and steal the job. Could he bust? For sure. But he could also be the league winner.  

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While I get what you are saying.... I'm pretty sure every player you referenced only got their chance due to injury or retirement of the players in front of them. Not sure how much of that is the coaches 'choosing' to go that way or his hand being forced. 

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2 hours ago, JaNelson38 said:

Montgomery wouldnt be practicing if he at least wasnt gonna try and play.  At the very least, he'll have a package of plays probably either as a decoy or as a receiver out of the backfield.  But in any event, if he's on the field, even as a decoy, Jones wont be.

 

Williams being ready torpeodoes any value Jones has.  Williams was ahead of Jones on the depth chart last week, and I'll be shocked if he's not first man up after TyMont.  

 

Jones might be a dynasty stash, and he might get a few touches sprinkled in vs Dallas based on game flow, but Im pretty confident this will be a pass-heavy game plan for the Packers, especially if Bulaga and Bahktiari both start - and they both practiced today.

 

Williams being ahead of Jones on the early season depth chart means very little.

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This whole wasted FAAB money BS is way too premature. As a TyMo owner watching Aaron Jones was extremely worrisome last Thursday night. He looked good and Aaron Rodgers took notice. Multiple broken ribs is a less than 50/50 chance of playing for TyMo IMO whether he practiced with a flak jacket or not. He also has sickle cell and a long history of injuries. Even if he does play it takes one bad hit for him to be out for a significant amount of time and he'll probably split the workload with Jones, giving Jones another shot to Wally Pipp him.

 

As far as FF upside stashes Aaron Jones is as high as it comes right now. If TyMo is out I'm starting him. His style fits this offense way better than Jamal Williams does. 

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6 hours ago, MarkBavarro said:

This whole wasted FAAB money BS is way too premature. As a TyMo owner watching Aaron Jones was extremely worrisome last Thursday night. He looked good and Aaron Rodgers took notice. Multiple broken ribs is a less than 50/50 chance of playing for TyMo IMO whether he practiced with a flak jacket or not. He also has sickle cell and a long history of injuries. Even if he does play it takes one bad hit for him to be out for a significant amount of time and he'll probably split the workload with Jones, giving Jones another shot to Wally Pipp him.

 

As far as FF upside stashes Aaron Jones is as high as it comes right now. If TyMo is out I'm starting him. His style fits this offense way better than Jamal Williams does. 

I spent #1 priority on him last night for this reason. Could it be a waste if like Lev Bell goes down next week? Sure. But the waiver wire add could never come and you could miss out on a TyMont rental for a few weeks with potential to take the job.

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22 minutes ago, RoboFroogs said:

I spent #1 priority on him last night for this reason. Could it be a waste if like Lev Bell goes down next week? Sure. But the waiver wire add could never come and you could miss out on a TyMont rental for a few weeks with potential to take the job.

 

Where did this take the job stuff come from? The only reason Jones was relevant was because BOTH backs ahead of him went down. He would have been a high upside rental on an offense with Aaron Rodgers. Where did you hear that Ty Montgomery's job was ever in danger to Jones? You spent your FAAB on him knowing that you would get 1-3 possible weeks of a workhorse on a good offense. Anything more than that is fool's gold.

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26 minutes ago, nonstopfan said:

 

Where did this take the job stuff come from? The only reason Jones was relevant was because BOTH backs ahead of him went down. He would have been a high upside rental on an offense with Aaron Rodgers. Where did you hear that Ty Montgomery's job was ever in danger to Jones? You spent your FAAB on him knowing that you would get 1-3 possible weeks of a workhorse on a good offense. Anything more than that is fool's gold.

The "take the job" stuff comes from NFL history. If he's better than both TyMont and Williams he will take it at some point when he gets the opportunity. Unless you are an elite talent (which TyMont certainly is not) then your job is never safe. There are examples of this every single year. I mean, look at Kareem Hunt; did anyone think he would be elite if he got a chance? Or DJ in 2015? Howard or Ajayi last year? 

 

I'm just saying he looked good in his time vs the Bears coming off the bench and he's getting praise from the coaches, players, and beat writers. He's got an opportunity and talent to be a three down back in the event TyMont misses a few weeks.

Edited by RoboFroogs
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17 hours ago, miasma16 said:

Did you even watch the game Thursday?

 

Jones was behind Williams because Williams does the little things better, like pass blocking (which, for the record, Jones is at least mediocre at). Further, Jamaal is by far the most physical runner of the 3. When Ty needed to hit the bench, Williams gave them more of a different look.

 

It's pretty clear that Williams sucks, and whenever Ty is out they need Jones a whole lot more than some JAG.

 

Yes, i did watch the game.  After the game I even watched all of Jones's carries again.  He didn't do anything to impress me.

 

Ok, so, by your own admission, Williams does all the little things better.  Which, to me means, he is the better football player at this time and that is why he was listed as number 2 on the depth chart.  Right?

 

How does Williams suck?  You just said he does all the little things better?

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16 hours ago, disasterisk said:

 

Williams being ahead of Jones on the early season depth chart means very little.

 

Um...yes it does.  Because of the reason why Williams is ahead of Jones.

 

Jones is probably the more talented runner.  But Williams is the better pass blocker and has the better understanding of the offense.  The Packers have made this clear from camp.  In the end, Rodgers and McCarthy arent going to put people back there who dont know how to pick up blitzes or do what Rodgers wants them to do with protection.  Its why Ripkowski played so much last year on 3rd downs even though TyMont was the featured back, and why TyMont worked all offseason on blitz pickup and protection schemes.

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17 hours ago, RoboFroogs said:

This is a bad argument I keep on seeing here and elsewhere. The depth chart is meaningless after the #1 goes down. If you look at my post on the last page you will see that just last year Howard was #3 on the depth chart behind some scrub even though he out performed everyone in the preseason. In this case it looks like their plan was to have Williams be complimentary to TY in the backfield. It doesn't necessarily mean he is the starter if Ty misses time. He is also #2 because he is a good pass blocker and there are game flow situations where they want him instead of the starter. 

 

It has been mentioned here before but Jones skill set is a lot like Ty's except he's a better pure runner and not as good as a receiver (which makes sense given Ty's history). Williams is more of a less talented Eddie Lacy type IMO, but he is a good pass protector.  

 

Ok, if depth charts are meaningless, why even have them?  Isn't the purpose of a depth chart to let the team know who the direct replacement is if the starter goes down?  Why would a depth chart all of a sudden become meaningless when a starter gets injured?  That doesn't make sense.  

 

Williams was not a "complimentary" back to Ty.  If he was, he would have been getting more playing time.  

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It's like you guys aren't even reading the arguments. I've given you plenty of examples and reasons as to why you have to read the depth chart differently when it comes to things like this. Could Williams prove me wrong? Sure. But look at literally all of the tape on these guys as well as what the coaches and players are saying about Jones. 

 

Jones was brought in to back up TyMont; they have a similar skill set except some people think Jones is better and had potential to be a late round steal in the draft. Williams looks bad on tape and is a completely different type of back compared to TyMont and Jones (big bodied plodder). It's not like Williams was a first or second round pick... they will go with the best player on the field. 

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18 minutes ago, JaNelson38 said:

 

Um...yes it does.  Because of the reason why Williams is ahead of Jones.

 

Jones is probably the more talented runner.  But Williams is the better pass blocker and has the better understanding of the offense.  The Packers have made this clear from camp.  In the end, Rodgers and McCarthy arent going to put people back there who dont know how to pick up blitzes or do what Rodgers wants them to do with protection.  Its why Ripkowski played so much last year on 3rd downs even though TyMont was the featured back, and why TyMont worked all offseason on blitz pickup and protection schemes.

 

Except things change. And in terms of who the Packers actually view as being capable of doing things like pass block, nobody knows. A little over a month ago this forum mostly thought that Montgomery was starting on borrowed time and was going to lose his job to Williams. And then the season started and Montgomery ended up being one of the most entrenched bellcows in the league. So you're telling me that you can produce a correct assessment of the Packer's backfield, down to who has a better grasp on the offense as of Thursday, October 5? Get out of here.

 

Depth charts regularly get abandoned when the starter goes down. Look what happened in San Fran when Hyde missed time in that game against the Rams. Look what has happened in Arizona with the loss of David Johnson. Shall I continue?

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4 minutes ago, RoboFroogs said:

It's like you guys aren't even reading the arguments. I've given you plenty of examples and reasons as to why you have to read the depth chart differently when it comes to things like this. Could Williams prove me wrong? Sure. But look at literally all of the tape on these guys as well as what the coaches and players are saying about Jones. 

 

Jones was brought in to back up TyMont; they have a similar skill set except some people think Jones is better and had potential to be a late round steal in the draft. Williams looks bad on tape and is a completely different type of back compared to TyMont and Jones (big bodied plodder). It's not like Williams was a first or second round pick... they will go with the best player on the field. 

 

But here is my issue with the depth chart argument.  And this is specific to the Packers.  I don't care how the Bears or any other team handled a similar situation. When Ty went down, who came into the game to replace him?  Williams right?  Who was listed on the depth chart as the No. 2 RB.  Again, Williams.  It wasn't until Williams went down with his knee injury that they turned to Jones.  Now granted, Williams got hurt early so who knows how the rest of the game would have gone with carries between the two. But, what we do know, is that McCarthy turned to Williams first over Jones.  To me, that means he was following the depth chart.

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