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Aaron Jones 2017 Season Outlook


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3 minutes ago, dre said:

 

But here is my issue with the depth chart argument.  And this is specific to the Packers.  I don't care how the Bears or any other team handled a similar situation. When Ty went down, who came into the game to replace him?  Williams right?  Who was listed on the depth chart as the No. 2 RB.  Again, Williams.  It wasn't until Williams went down with his knee injury that they turned to Jones.  Now granted, Williams got hurt early so who knows how the rest of the game would have gone with carries between the two. But, what we do know, is that McCarthy turned to Williams first over Jones.  To me, that means he was following the depth chart.

This combined with the fact that they drafted Williams ahead of Jones. It was only a round difference and that they still drafted Jones after him is significant but I think it suggests Williams will get the first crack at the job if Montgomery isn't good to go. Jones will likely still get reps but this could mean if Williams looks good it his job, if he doesn't surprise then that opens the door for Jones to get the job but I think he has a more uphill opportunity than Williams. Talent is great but opportunity trumps talent and I don't think Williams has to set the world on fire to secure the job where Jones will have to amaze in limited reps to try and takeover for him. Jones looked good last game but I'm not sure he showed enough to demand a further look ahead of Williams who they have obviously for whatever reason preferred from draft day until he got injured. 

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6 minutes ago, dre said:

 

But here is my issue with the depth chart argument.  And this is specific to the Packers.  I don't care how the Bears or any other team handled a similar situation. When Ty went down, who came into the game to replace him?  Williams right?  Who was listed on the depth chart as the No. 2 RB.  Again, Williams.  It wasn't until Williams went down with his knee injury that they turned to Jones.  Now granted, Williams got hurt early so who knows how the rest of the game would have gone with carries between the two. But, what we do know, is that McCarthy turned to Williams first over Jones.  To me, that means he was following the depth chart.

I mean he was in for like one or two plays before he got injured so you don't know how that would have turned out. But what did happen was Jones came in played well and after the game everyone was talking him up. Smart money is on Jones.

 

Also I feel like people are forgetting that before TyMont went down, they were running Jones with the first team in practice that week. So that tells me that he is at the very least the guy they feel is TyMont's back up and who they will turn to if he misses time. Beyond that, they could also feel like TyMont isn't getting it done on the ground like they think he should and they were prepared to give Jones more carries... but that is pure conjecture on my part. But you have to ask yourself why would the Pack run the "third string" RB with the starters all week in practice instead of Williams?

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1 minute ago, Jaw1 said:

This combined with the fact that they drafted Williams ahead of Jones. It was only a round difference and that they still drafted Jones after him is significant but I think it suggests Williams will get the first crack at the job if Montgomery isn't good to go. Jones will likely still get reps but this could mean if Williams looks good it his job, if he doesn't surprise then that opens the door for Jones to get the job but I think he has a more uphill opportunity than Williams. Talent is great but opportunity trumps talent and I don't think Williams has to set the world on fire to secure the job where Jones will have to amaze in limited reps to try and takeover for him. Jones looked good last game but I'm not sure he showed enough to demand a further look ahead of Williams who they have obviously for whatever reason preferred from draft day until he got injured. 

 

If Ty misses extended time, no one knows how this will turn out.  Jones could run away with the job.  As others have pointed out, it has happened before.  But both rookies has all training camp to impress and show the coaches what they are capable of.  Williams obviously showed more than Jones.  

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1 minute ago, RoboFroogs said:

I mean he was in for like one or two plays before he got injured so you don't know how that would have turned out. But what did happen was Jones came in played well and after the game everyone was talking him up. Smart money is on Jones.

 

Also I feel like people are forgetting that before TyMont went down, they were running Jones with the first team in practice that week. So that tells me that he is at the very least the guy they feel is TyMont's back up and who they will turn to if he misses time. Beyond that, they could also feel like TyMont isn't getting it done on the ground like they think he should and they were prepared to give Jones more carries... but that is pure conjecture on my part. But you have to ask yourself why would the Pack run the "third string" RB with the starters all week in practice instead of Williams?

 

He had four carries, give him some credit. lol  To touch on your "everyone was talking him up" point, of course his teammates and coaches were going to be talking him up after the game.  That is what teammates and coaches are supposed to do.  They weren't going to be like "meh, Aaron looked mediocre out there tonight, I guess that is why he was our 3rd string RB.  I hope there is some good talent available on the waiver wire".

 

No idea why the Packers were having Jones run with the 1s.  None of us know the answer to that.

 

Don't get me wrong, I'm not sure who the better RB is right now between Williams and Jones.  I don't have the luxury of watching them practice for hours each day like the GB coaching staff does.  I just don't see that Jones has much, if any, fantasy value right now.  I picked him up but dropped him when I saw that Williams and Ty were practicing.  

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First they said:

"Fantasy footballers, get ready. There will be a waiver wire rush that would put Black Friday to shame when Aaron Jones hits the market after the conclusion of Week 4. Clutch your waiver priority tight, shake the loose FAAB coins from under your couch cushions and put the full court press on acquiring Jones’ services"

 

Now, 24 hours after I blow FAAB, I am told:

 

". All three of Montgomery, Adams, and Jamaal Williams may not miss any games at all. Those Week 5 Aaron Jones waiver pickups look like they were all for naught."

 

Time for a sit down.

 

 

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53 minutes ago, disasterisk said:

 

Except things change. And in terms of who the Packers actually view as being capable of doing things like pass block, nobody knows. A little over a month ago this forum mostly thought that Montgomery was starting on borrowed time and was going to lose his job to Williams. And then the season started and Montgomery ended up being one of the most entrenched bellcows in the league. So you're telling me that you can produce a correct assessment of the Packer's backfield, down to who has a better grasp on the offense as of Thursday, October 5? Get out of here.

 

Depth charts regularly get abandoned when the starter goes down. Look what happened in San Fran when Hyde missed time in that game against the Rams. Look what has happened in Arizona with the loss of David Johnson. Shall I continue?

 

Im going by on what McCarthy has said throughout the season.  Im a Packers fan and follow them quite close.

 

McCarthy told anyone who would listen in training camp that Montgomery was his starting running back, and in his words was a "full threat".  They had him add on a few pounds of muscle, and had him work with third-party coaching in the offseason on pass blocking and blitz pickup.  It was obvious to anyone who wanted to listen who the #1 was going to be in GB this year.  

 

The idea that Williams was pushing Montgomery for playing time was peddled by an ESPN writer who covers the Packers and loves to make outlandish statements and opinions with no real evidence to back it up - Rob Demovsky.  And then it was picked up by the fantasy community and it snowballed.  Add that on to the fact that the Packers spent a couple of mid-round picks on backs, and everyone just assumed that this RB job would be a timeshare of some sort.  That's why everyone seemed so shocked that Williams never saw the field when the games that counted started.  And while TyMont probably played more than most expected, he's that dynamic of a player in the Packers offense.  The Packers simply kept him in mothballs for preseason games.

 

The Packers have invested a TON of time, coaching and resources in TyMont over the past two years, both in the conversion from WR to RB, his training, and his coaching to become a 3-down back.  They arent going to throw that away to give the full-time job to a rookie because of an injury that may sideline him for a week or two.  Its nice to have Jones and Williams as two guys who can fill in for and spell TyMont.  But neither is "taking" this job from TyMont this year.

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2 minutes ago, JaNelson38 said:

 

Im going by on what McCarthy has said throughout the season.  Im a Packers fan and follow them quite close.

 

McCarthy told anyone who would listen in training camp that Montgomery was his starting running back, and in his words was a "full threat".  They had him add on a few pounds of muscle, and had him work with third-party coaching in the offseason on pass blocking and blitz pickup.  It was obvious to anyone who wanted to listen who the #1 was going to be in GB this year.  

 

The idea that Williams was pushing Montgomery for playing time was peddled by an ESPN writer who covers the Packers and loves to make outlandish statements and opinions with no real evidence to back it up - Rob Demovsky.  And then it was picked up by the fantasy community and it snowballed.  Add that on to the fact that the Packers spent a couple of mid-round picks on backs, and everyone just assumed that this RB job would be a timeshare of some sort.  That's why everyone seemed so shocked that Williams never saw the field when the games that counted started.  And while TyMont probably played more than most expected, he's that dynamic of a player in the Packers offense.  The Packers simply kept him in mothballs for preseason games.

 

The Packers have invested a TON of time, coaching and resources in TyMont over the past two years, both in the conversion from WR to RB, his training, and his coaching to become a 3-down back.  They arent going to throw that away to give the full-time job to a rookie because of an injury that may sideline him for a week or two.  Its nice to have Jones and Williams as two guys who can fill in for and spell TyMont.  But neither is "taking" this job from TyMont this year.

 

all these words and no evidence that Williams is going to play more than Jones this season because he is currently ahead of him on the depth chart.

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47 minutes ago, dre said:

 

If Ty misses extended time, no one knows how this will turn out. 

 

It means the Packers will just throw the ball more.  You've got Rodgers and:

-Jordy

-Cobb

-Davante

-Allison

-Bennett

 

Pretty sure a team will go this way as opposed to Rodgers handing the ball off to a rook.

 

People are making this too complicated.

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Just now, disasterisk said:

 

all these words and no evidence that Williams is going to play more than Jones this season because he is currently ahead of him on the depth chart.

 

Aaron Jones didnt play a snap from scrimmage this season until Williams got hurt vs. the Bears.

 

Pretty sure that's enough evidence for me.

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4 minutes ago, JaNelson38 said:

 

Im going by on what McCarthy has said throughout the season.  Im a Packers fan and follow them quite close.

 

McCarthy told anyone who would listen in training camp that Montgomery was his starting running back, and in his words was a "full threat".  They had him add on a few pounds of muscle, and had him work with third-party coaching in the offseason on pass blocking and blitz pickup.  It was obvious to anyone who wanted to listen who the #1 was going to be in GB this year.  

 

The idea that Williams was pushing Montgomery for playing time was peddled by an ESPN writer who covers the Packers and loves to make outlandish statements and opinions with no real evidence to back it up - Rob Demovsky.  And then it was picked up by the fantasy community and it snowballed.  Add that on to the fact that the Packers spent a couple of mid-round picks on backs, and everyone just assumed that this RB job would be a timeshare of some sort.  That's why everyone seemed so shocked that Williams never saw the field when the games that counted started.  And while TyMont probably played more than most expected, he's that dynamic of a player in the Packers offense.  The Packers simply kept him in mothballs for preseason games.

 

The Packers have invested a TON of time, coaching and resources in TyMont over the past two years, both in the conversion from WR to RB, his training, and his coaching to become a 3-down back.  They arent going to throw that away to give the full-time job to a rookie because of an injury that may sideline him for a week or two.  Its nice to have Jones and Williams as two guys who can fill in for and spell TyMont.  But neither is "taking" this job from TyMont this year.

I agree with this 100%, Ty's job is safe. The real question is who's the cuff as it's hard to roster both Jones and Williams.

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1 minute ago, JaNelson38 said:

 

It means the Packers will just throw the ball more.  You've got Rodgers and:

-Jordy

-Cobb

-Davante

-Allison

-Bennett

 

Pretty sure a team will go this way as opposed to Rodgers handing the ball off to a rook.

 

People are making this too complicated.

 

I completely agree with you.  The Packers throw enough when Ty is healthy, they will just throw even more now that he isn't. That is a given.  What I was alluding to, was the question of how things will turn out between Williams and Jones. 

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1 minute ago, dre said:

 

I completely agree with you.  The Packers throw enough when Ty is healthy, they will just throw even more now that he isn't. That is a given.  What I was alluding to, was the question of how things will turn out between Williams and Jones. 

 

They'll go with the guy Rodgers feels most comfortable back there with.

 

Dont forget they have Aaron Ripkowski, arguably the best blocking back on their roster.

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Just now, JaNelson38 said:

 

They'll go with the guy Rodgers feels most comfortable back there with.

 

Dont forget they have Aaron Ripkowski, arguably the best blocking back on their roster.

 

Again, agreed, but who will that be?  check your crystal ball, read your tea leaves and get back to me!

 

Ugh, Rip is such a plodder.  lol  

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9 minutes ago, JaNelson38 said:

 

They'll go with the guy Rodgers feels most comfortable back there with.

 

Dont forget they have Aaron Ripkowski, arguably the best blocking back on their roster.

Sounds like Jones to me from what everyone has said about him and the first team reps last week. But time will tell. 

 

Either way, Rip shouldn't really be a concern for fantasy relevant production. Although I have no doubt he'll vulture some TDs from whoever is in the backfield like Kuhn used to do to Lacy. 

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4 minutes ago, RoboFroogs said:

Sounds like Jones to me from what everyone has said about him and the first team reps last week. But time will tell. 

 

Either way, Rip shouldn't really be a concern for fantasy relevant production. Although I have no doubt he'll vulture some TDs from whoever is in the backfield like Kuhn used to do to Lacy. 

 

Ugh, McCarthy and that damn FB dive play, don't remind me.  I still have nightmares about that damn play.  I always imagined that scenario unfolded something like this on the sidelines:

 

OC: Mike, we've got 1st and goal from the 1, let's let Lacy get a couple shots at punching the ball in.  

MM: Come'on, you know what play we run here.

OC: Yes Mike, I know, but we've run that play some many times everyone knows we are going to run that play.

MM:  So.  It works!

OC: Eventually it won't.  

MM:  Oh yeah, you wanna bet?

OC: Not really, I just want to score.

MM:  Meh, hold my beer and watch this.  *Calls in FB dive play to Kuhn*

MM: See, told you it would work..........

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10 minutes ago, gimme the ball said:

Aaron Jones is a bust. Drop him while you still can.

You can always drop him, unless he winds up on the can't drop list. And in that case you won't feel bad that you didn't drop him while you still can. I agree that he's likely a bust, but I'm not racing to drop him given that all the other waiver wire flavors of the week who may or may not breakout have already been added by others. Droppable if you need to make a move and there is something appealing waiting on the wire, sure. Mad rush to drop him, no.

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18 minutes ago, gimme the ball said:

Aaron Jones is a bust. Drop him while you still can.

Drop him while i still can? What will happen in the event that i don't drop him right this minute? Is he gonna be locked up permanently in my lineup? Will he be loitering around my bench causing dissension among the ranks? You wanna see a real bust? Take a trip on over to the Crowell thread.

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TyMont is practicing in pads today so we will see. I'm still not convinced that he's going to play more than limited snaps but I think Jones is still worth holding in the event that TyMont does play and the chance he makes the injury worse.

 

At the end of the day he's just a lotto ticket like most other WW adds are. For every Jordan Howard there's several Dwayne Washingtons. You just never know how it's going to shake out until after the fact. If Jones does something we all look like geniuses, if he doesn't it's back to the drawing board for the next potential WW gem. 

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7 minutes ago, FreakFries said:

First they said:

"Fantasy footballers, get ready. There will be a waiver wire rush that would put Black Friday to shame when Aaron Jones hits the market after the conclusion of Week 4. Clutch your waiver priority tight, shake the loose FAAB coins from under your couch cushions and put the full court press on acquiring Jones’ services"

 

Now, 24 hours after I blow FAAB, I am told:

 

". All three of Montgomery, Adams, and Jamaal Williams may not miss any games at all. Those Week 5 Aaron Jones waiver pickups look like they were all for naught."

 

 

That was written within one day after the TNF game, before all the other games of week 4 and before any follow-ups had been done on the extent of their injuries. Always wise to revisit the situations shortly before waivers. That being said, that is just way way too much overhyping from that writer at that point. But you rarely see him (Jeff Brubach) cracking even the top 25% among fantasy experts in-season accuracy scores either.. Most writers and so-called experts suck anyway, either stick to these forums or pick a few sources carefully and stick to them. Preferably both. As a matter of fact most writers don't dive nearly as deep into each situation as we do on these boards, but they might have a slightly better overall image of the field instead.

 

However, still too early to tell how this situation will shape up this weekend. To me Aaron Jones definitely looks like a better fit in this offense and what they want to do compared to JW primarily due to his receiving prowess (some craazy deep reception plays on college tape for example) but he also looked like a better and more natural runner than Jamaal Williams has looked all season. Albeit a small sample size but I think he might have grabbed a hold of that RB2 role right there.

 

That might just all mean nothing if Ty is good to go week 5 though. But I'm definitely holding Jones over this game, even if all three of them are active.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, dre said:

Ok, so, by your own admission, Williams does all the little things better.  Which, to me means, he is the better football player at this time and that is why he was listed as number 2 on the depth chart.  Right?

No, not at all. Because the big thing is getting yardage. Something Williams has appeared to be notably worse at than Jones ever since they were drafted, and certainly last week.

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