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Aaron Jones 2017 Season Outlook


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5 minutes ago, gimme the ball said:

He's a great running back. He's carved out a role for himself. I would say his floor is RB2 going forward from here on out. The only solace I can take is that I traded him to Ty's owner and thus he can only play one at a time, so he didn't necessarily improve his team by that much.

Sorry to bust your bubble but if the Packers are going to employ Ty and Jones like I expect them to then they are both startable. 

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7 minutes ago, Dirtywater97 said:

You can analyze the data however you want, and make your own conclusions. However, I don't see it that way. You think Ty Mont would come out scott free in the same situation in college? I don't think so.

 

Agreed with the first sentence or two. That's why we're here; to gain different perspectives from different-minded people.

 

As for your hypothetical, it's just that, a hypothetical, and I don't like dealing with those. There's no way to know one way or another how Montgomery would handle that situation. Suggesting so is silly and doesn't advance the discussion.

 

Montgomery knows the playbook which allows Rodgers/McCarthy to run the offense they want

Jones looks to be the better back and better pure runner. The more experience he gets cuts down the edge Montgomery has.

 

To me that has timeshare written all over it. It will be fun to watch it unfold either way. It's been awhile since Green Bay has looked that good running the ball, even if it was Dallas.

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22 minutes ago, smetana34 said:

Jones and Williams are still grasping the playbook. That was stated during the game yesterday and alluded to earlier this week in interviews with Rodgers and McCarthy. Montgomery going down meant the training wheels had to be broken off. They kept in simple for Jones this week by cutting the playbook down (which I think is a great thing for the offense as a whole as McCarthy's playbook is too thick and often times I think too complicated, which leads to ruts, like the one GB was in for a year or so, but that's for a different thread/discussion) but Rodgers has stated he doesn't like that. You can go back and look at the past few years with the Lacy/Starks combo. Lacy would get a series, sometimes two, for every Starks series. Jones is the better pure runner, Montgomery knows more of the playbook. They both offer the same skill set. It will end up being a pretty equal timeshare.

 

 

I agree with this.. Having watched GB for many years I have a decent assumption that this will work out to be a timeshare since Green Bay doesn't really employ a true 3rd down back. Jones could have more of the "clock grinding" work while Montgomery plays the "catch up" role but I don't believe they will rotate during series.

 

Montgomery is certainly not going anywhere when he comes back healthy and the (assumed) emergence of Jones helps Green Bay go back to limiting Ty's touches throughout the season much like last year. With that said, contrary to popular belief, McCarthy really does try to have a balanced run/pass ratio when able so both backs should provide value.

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13 minutes ago, RoboFroogs said:

That's a bad argument. There are plenty of good RBs that come from schools like UTEP... look at Kareem Hunt just this year as an example. Matt Forte went to Tulane and he is one of the best in recent memory. The important thing is that he was tearing it up no matter who they played. 

 

E: David Johnson went to NIU... another good example.

That isn't what the conversation was about. Of course good players can come from small schools. The point was that there's a vast difference between quality of players in college and the pros. Just because a guy handled a full load in college doesn't mean he can against paid professionals. It doesn't mean he can't either, but at 205 lbs Jones is on the lighter side when compared to other bellcows in the league. That makes me question if he can or not.

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23 minutes ago, GottaGetTheWin said:

Sorry to bust your bubble but if the Packers are going to employ Ty and Jones like I expect them to then they are both startable. 

I dunno, I think starting them both limits their upside. If McCarthy uses them both, then their ceiling is going to be limited. You certainly won't see 40 point games like you did from Ty a couple weeks ago. 

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19 minutes ago, smetana34 said:

That isn't what the conversation was about. Of course good players can come from small schools. The point was that there's a vast difference between quality of players in college and the pros. Just because a guy handled a full load in college doesn't mean he can against paid professionals. It doesn't mean he can't either, but at 205 lbs Jones is on the lighter side when compared to other bellcows in the league. That makes me question if he can or not.

205? He's listed at 209 and has likely put on muscle since then. But again there are plenty of bellcow type that have those metrics... Devonta Freeman is one (listed at 5'8", 206), MJD was another (5'7", 210)... even Barry Sanders (5'8", 200). He can handle the load. 

 

E: There are also guys like Jamaal Charles and Beast Mode who are an inch or two taller but similar weight. He's right in the range for most bellcow type RBs. Bigger guys (6ft+ ) like TyMont and David Johnson have been outliers but in the end I'm not sure the size matters much unless you are Tarik Cohen sized.

Edited by RoboFroogs
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6 minutes ago, gimme the ball said:

I dunno, I think starting them both limits their upside. If McCarthy uses them both, then their ceiling is going to be limited. You certainly won't see 40 point games like you did from Ty a couple weeks ago. 

 

I don't thin it limits their upside as much as it plays to their strengths.  

 

If Jones got 15-20 carries and goal line touches and Montgomery got 8-10 targets out of the backfield why wouldn't they both have the potential to succeed in roles they are set for.

 

They could even look into using split backs where they can run a draw with jones which could set up a play action where they then fake the draw and swing it to montgomery slipping around the edge.   In an offense as dynamic as this there are a lot of options they can do with both guys that keep them relevant. 

 

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4 minutes ago, GottaGetTheWin said:

 

I don't thin it limits their upside as much as it plays to their strengths.  

 

If Jones got 15-20 carries and goal line touches and Montgomery got 8-10 targets out of the backfield why wouldn't they both have the potential to succeed in roles they are set for.

 

They could even look into using split backs where they can run a draw with jones which could set up a play action where they then fake the draw and swing it to montgomery slipping around the edge.   In an offense as dynamic as this there are a lot of options they can do with both guys that keep them relevant. 

 

Who knows how it plays out, but I think they would be crazy not to run Jones after what he has done the past two weeks. Everyone is severely underrating the Bears run defense and it is significant that he got 50 yards and a TD against them in a more limited role off the bench (the field after the rain was in awful shape too). I know the Cowboys have a garbage run defense without Sean Lee but it is also significant that he tore them up on the ground in his first NFL start. In other words he is at least meeting or exceeding expectations of a normal starting RB in the NFL. 

 

I'm curious if they will start throwing to him more as well. He's got the skill set to be a three down back IMO. I think they move TyMont back to WR if Jones continues to play well; he's averaging over 5 YPC in his first two starts. 

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1 hour ago, RoboFroogs said:

I'm curious if they will start throwing to him more as well. He's got the skill set to be a three down back IMO. I think they move TyMont back to WR if Jones continues to play well; he's averaging over 5 YPC in his first two starts. 

 

This is the only issue I have with the hype train in this thread.  

 

Let me start with this, I own Jones and have no ownership in TY so if Jones were to become a full three down back and get receiving yards I would be as happy as anyone, but let's try to have a realistic conversation here. 

 

Montgomery was a WR for a few years already and he didn't exactly succeed at the position.  Even if they moved him back he would still be #4 on the WR pecking order at best unless Jordy's hammy is devesating which it doesn't seem to be.  Even if it was a season ender he would go back and be the #3 WR?  A place that he has never been able to succeed.

 

Meanwhile, he has already proven over the course of about a full year now that he can be a dynamic, game-changing player out of the backfield as a receiver.  I don't care how good anyone here thinks Jones is as a receiver, Montgomery is better...simple..period. stop. 

 

He made a great catch yesterday yes.  He also had only 1 target so they didn't exactly design him to get the ball on the receiving end, which is fine.   Don't let fantasy desires cloud reality.  Jones has all the potential in the world to take over the first and second down role from Montgomery but as long as TY is healthy there is a 1000000% chance that he will stay the receiving back for the Packers because that is the place that he helps them the most.  To think anything different is complete lunacy and in the completely unlikely chance that they move TY back to WR and out of the backfield as a pass catching back then McCarthy should be fired because that is not where he best helps the team. 

Edited by GottaGetTheWin
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12 minutes ago, GottaGetTheWin said:

Meanwhile, he has already proven over the course of about a full year now that he can be a dynamic, game-changing player out of the backfield as a receiver.  I don't care how good anyone here thinks Jones is as a receiver, Montgomery is better...simple..period. stop. 

That's being incredibly generous to Ty. He's only had the one game against the Bears last year that he was actually good in all facets of the game (maybe the Falcons game this year?). Obviously the Packers don't feel he gives them much of an edge as they blew 2-3 draft picks on RBs this year (can't remember if Mays was drafted or not). I'm not going to argue that Jones is a better receiver but they like him as a runner without a doubt. There were a few 3&1ish situations yesterday that they just gave it to him for a first down. Can you imagine them letting Ty do that? It's gotta be a relief for Rodgers that he doesn't have to throw it all the time in short yardage situations if Jones actually works out at RB. 

 

Again, going back and looking at Ty's games he's only had ONE career game over 60 yards rushing and it was the aforementioned Bears game. I get that most of his value came from the passing game but from a real life football perspective that is not going to get it done because no one respects him as a runner.

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Just now, RoboFroogs said:

That's being incredibly generous to Ty. He's only had the one game against the Bears last year that he was actually good in all facets of the game (maybe the Falcons game this year?). Obviously the Packers don't feel he gives them much of an edge as they blew 2-3 draft picks on RBs this year (can't remember if Mays was drafted or not). I'm not going to argue that Jones is a better receiver but they like him as a runner without a doubt. There were a few 3&1ish situations yesterday that they just gave it to him for a first down. Can you imagine them letting Ty do that? It's gotta be a relief for Rodgers that he doesn't have to throw it all the time in short yardage situations if Jones actually works out at RB. 

 

Again, going back and looking at Ty's games he's only had ONE career game over 60 yards rushing and it was the aforementioned Bears game. I get that most of his value came from the passing game but from a real life football perspective that is not going to get it done because no one respects him as a runner.

Not sure why you say I'm being generous to TY in a topic about how he is an excellent receiver out of the backfield to then talk about him as a runner but alright. 

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34 minutes ago, TheLegacy said:

Not sure how this will play out with Ty Montgomery possibly heading back, but I'm going to trade high on this guy. Already received offers of 1:1 trades for Crabtree, Cooks and Diggs.

 You received an offer of the overall number 1 wide receiver in fantasy for a player who has a range of outcomes as wide as Jones?  That's incredible and i hope you took it right away.

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13 minutes ago, GottaGetTheWin said:

Not sure why you say I'm being generous to TY in a topic about how he is an excellent receiver out of the backfield to then talk about him as a runner but alright. 

You're saying he's a game changing talent out of the backfield and I disagree. His receiving production was 100% due to volume. Plus if you go back and look at his game logs he really wasn't getting that much work as a receiver outside a few games last year; his first two games were back to back 10 catch games... beyond that he was only getting 3ish receptions for 15 yards or so a week with a couple of exceptions.

 

To start the year he was getting a lot more receiving work but it was because he was seeing a LOT of targets. In the Cincy game he had like 12 targets that he turned into 8 catches for 15 yards. I think it's possible that they scale his role down to situational/5-10 touches kind of like Percy Harvin back in the day. To your point, if he's not good at being a normal WR (which I am not sure if he is or not) and he's not a better runner than Jones, what is his role in the offense? 

Edited by RoboFroogs
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1 hour ago, RoboFroogs said:

Who knows how it plays out, but I think they would be crazy not to run Jones after what he has done the past two weeks. Everyone is severely underrating the Bears run defense and it is significant that he got 50 yards and a TD against them in a more limited role off the bench (the field after the rain was in awful shape too). I know the Cowboys have a garbage run defense without Sean Lee but it is also significant that he tore them up on the ground in his first NFL start. In other words he is at least meeting or exceeding expectations of a normal starting RB in the NFL. 

 

I'm curious if they will start throwing to him more as well. He's got the skill set to be a three down back IMO. I think they move TyMont back to WR if Jones continues to play well; he's averaging over 5 YPC in his first two starts. 

This is exactly my point. One player will emerge the winner; the other will see both his snaps, touches, and ultimately points trend down. And that will most likely be Montgomery. 

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8 minutes ago, RoboFroogs said:

You're saying he's a game changing talent out of the backfield and I disagree. His receiving production was 100% due to volume. Plus if you go back and look at his game logs he really wasn't getting that much work as a receiver outside a few games last year; his first two games were back to back 10 catch games... beyond that he was only getting 3ish receptions for 15 yards or so a week with a couple of exceptions.

 

To start the year he was getting a lot more receiving work but it was because he was seeing a LOT of targets. In the Cincy game he had like 12 targets that he turned into 8 catches for 15 yards. I think it's possible that they scale his role down to situational/5-10 touches kind of like Percy Harvin back in the day. To your point, if he's not good at being a normal WR (which I am not sure if he is or not) and he's not a better runner than Jones, what is his role in the offense? 

False. I said he was a game changing player out of the backfield AS A RECEIVER. 

 

game logs are all good and great but I watched a lot of the packers games last year and many of this catches were in high pressure situations to extend drives.  Similar stuff early this year. 

 

His role would be exactly what ive been saying for three posts.  The 3rd down receiving back. 

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I have to admit, I was shocked AJ was so effective.  I should have known there was a reason Montgomery was trying so hard to play in spite of his broken ribs.

 

If AJ can continue to do that and players get healthy, the Packers are a contender.

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3 minutes ago, GottaGetTheWin said:

False. I said he was a game changing player out of the backfield AS A RECEIVER. 

 

game logs are all good and great but I watched a lot of the packers games last year and many of this catches were in high pressure situations to extend drives.  Similar stuff early this year. 

 

His role would be exactly what ive been saying for three posts.  The 3rd down receiving back. 

 

I stated this earlier but GB has not used a true "3rd down receiving back" as long as I can remember.. Not saying that they wouldn't adjust their philosophy but based off of history Jones and Montgomery should be expected to split work in the sense that they will be seeing full drives apiece rather than subbing in and out during drives.

 

Furthermore for those saying Montgomery was/isn't a good receiver, that really isn't entirely true.. Montgomery showed plenty of potential while still playing as a WR (there was even a bunch of clamoring from the less informed that he should've taken Adams' job) however he was drafted/groomed as an heir apparent to the Randall Cobb role.. He really isn't an outside receiver like Nelson/Adams are and would've been used as primarily a slot guy.. As a Packer fan I would love to see him moved back to that role as it would essentially free GB up from Cobb's contract but that's a totally different topic.. I also don't believe they would do that given that Allison has emerged to provide depth at WR whereas RB is shallow for the Packers (which is entirely why Montgomery has wound up playing RB).

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