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Aaron Jones 2017 Season Outlook


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Have to spot start Jones this week with McCoy and Zeke on bye, so I'm pretty new to the situation. Anyone anticipate Montgomery being ready next week?

 

That said, Vikings run D looked alright last night. They did catch a break when a long Jordan Howard rush TD was called back on a ticky-tacky holding call, but otherwise looked pretty good. Howard was 19 carries for 76 yards, but we also need to factor in the fact that Aaron Rodgers and his receivers are a bit more threatening than Trubisky and his squad, so maybe the box will be a little softer.

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10 hours ago, miasma16 said:

And then was really good. 

 

If Ty was so good, why did GB draft two more RBs?  Because he's not a great runner.  Jones appears to be quicker and has more burst.  Ty will still contribute, just at a lesser extent.

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Packers coach Mike McCarthy said Aaron Jones has "earned more opportunities."

We would hope so after rushing 19 times for 125 yards and a touchdown against the Cowboys, but McCarthy made it clear Jones is not going to run away with the job. "This is not a one-man show. It’s going to take them all." It is an interesting comment from a coach who used Ty Montgomery almost exclusively before his injury and played Jones on 88 percent of the offensive snaps with Montgomery sidelined, but it sounds like there will be more of a committee moving forward. Both Jones and Montgomery need to be owned in all leagues, and Jones will be a must-start this week if Montgomery remains sidelined.
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50 minutes ago, Red Dog said:

 

If Ty was so good, why did GB draft two more RBs?  Because he's not a great runner.  Jones appears to be quicker and has more burst.  Ty will still contribute, just at a lesser extent.

They drafted 3...... Jamaal Williams also got hurt last week. Jones and then Devante Mays. 

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So serious question.

 

If you own Jones without Ty do you try and acquire Ty or are you sending him to the Ty owner?

 

I actually owned Ty at the beginning of the year and then sent him away (Davlin Cook in return of that trade RIP), but now I find myself with Jones needing an RB. This past week was a god send, but still planning for ROS. I am not one to think Jones will suddenly supplant Ty, but I want to try and cover bases.

 

What do we think actually shakes out? Is this going to be a true 50/50 split or do we think one of these guys shakes out a bigger role and if so who?

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1 minute ago, TheDoctor said:

So serious question.

 

If you own Jones without Ty do you try and acquire Ty or are you sending him to the Ty owner?

 

I actually owned Ty at the beginning of the year and then sent him away (Davlin Cook in return of that trade RIP), but now I find myself with Jones needing an RB. This past week was a god send, but still planning for ROS. I am not one to think Jones will suddenly supplant Ty, but I want to try and cover bases.

 

What do we think actually shakes out? Is this going to be a true 50/50 split or do we think one of these guys shakes out a bigger role and if so who?

It could go either way. But my guess is that Ty comes back in 2 weeks and gets the majority of snaps and touches and Jones maintains a role. I think in a week it'll be much clearer pending if Jones goes over 100 or not, and that Ty will be held out this week. 

 

I think Jones is a little overvalued today, and Ty undervalued. I wouldn't trade Ty, but I'd shop Jones. 

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39 minutes ago, FreakFries said:

 

What's the story this week though?

 

 

Pretty much similar to what I told you last Thursday (quote below), still too early to tell once again even if there always are internet warriors full of themselves handing out confident verdicts left and right. Often without much, if any, reasoning.

 

 

On 2017-10-05 at 6:25 PM, Alconbury said:

 

...

 

However, still too early to tell how this situation will shape up this weekend. To me Aaron Jones definitely looks like a better fit in this offense and what they want to do compared to JW primarily due to his receiving prowess (some craazy deep reception plays on college tape for example) but he also looked like a better and more natural runner than Jamaal Williams has looked all season. Albeit a small sample size but I think he might have grabbed a hold of that RB2 role right there.

 

That might just all mean nothing if Ty is good to go week 5 though. But I'm definitely holding Jones over this game, even if all three of them are active.

 

 

It did turn out also Packers realising AJ being a better fit. Which tbh was fairly obvious looking at their individual skillsets and has been my standpoint since researching them both back in the offseason. However, as I have mentioned before in the Montgomery thread, Packers want their back to be versatile and play all three downs to be able to turn their no-huddle offense on and off whenever they like, they have said as much themselves. Having a three-down RB is very valuable to them and is what they need to truly make this a scary offense.

 

This is a big factor in why they are so high on Ty Montgomery and been putting this much resources in making his position switch work out. However, to me, having studied them both rather closely this offseason, Aaron Jones can do it all as well. He is a very adept pass catcher. We got a glimpse of it on his lone catch week 5 but I'm telling you, there is a lot more potential boiling here.

 

Last week I said Aaron Jones looking like a better and more natural runner than Jamaal Williams. Well this week Aaron Jones also definitely looked better running the ball than Ty Montgomery has looked all season. But I'm suspecting a lot of it has to do with Cowboys run D being the worst they faced so far, and the oline in front of Aaron Jones the best constellation they had this year. 3.8 yards before first contact per attempt for AJ vs Cowboys while Ty is sitting at 1.1 for the season. However, impossible to know exactly how much is oline blocking and how much is RB vision, but that big differences tend to point to oline play being a big reason. Especially with Ty having shown fairly well in that department before. But who knows, will certainly be very interesting to follow.

 

So at this point, if both Ty and AJ are healthy, I can definitely see it being some kind of split since AJ can be a three-down back as well. Ty still probably way higher than 50% share though since he still knows a lot more pages of this playbook than AJ does. Having AJ in right now limits them to an extent. But as he picks up more and more of the playbook, look out. It's still early, and I own both so I have no agenda here, but as bold as it might sound I am absolutely open to the possibility of AJ taking over the bigger share of this backfield as the season goes on. He looks special.

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44 minutes ago, TheDoctor said:

So serious question.

 

If you own Jones without Ty do you try and acquire Ty or are you sending him to the Ty owner?

 

I actually owned Ty at the beginning of the year and then sent him away (Davlin Cook in return of that trade RIP), but now I find myself with Jones needing an RB. This past week was a god send, but still planning for ROS. I am not one to think Jones will suddenly supplant Ty, but I want to try and cover bases.

 

What do we think actually shakes out? Is this going to be a true 50/50 split or do we think one of these guys shakes out a bigger role and if so who?

 

I am starting him until Ty comes back, then probably trying to trade him to the Ty owner.  Will sit on him or drop for a better prospect if one comes up, but I imagine he'll be like Henry/Foreman, where he's too valuable to drop but not worth much until the starter gets hurt.

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19 hours ago, Dirtywater97 said:

 

If you haven’t watched this yet take a look. 

 

Jones made a couple nice runs but the majority were through gaping holes. I’m not taking anything away from him but to all those thinking Jones is the far superior runner, I think almost any RB in the NFL could’ve done what Jones did in this game. 

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If you've watched Jones in the preseason, and the last couple of weeks, you're excited.  If not, or you're in a small league you're worried about Ty. Agree with those who think Jones gets more work as the season progresses after Ty returns.  He passes the eye test.  Ty looks an awful lot like Riddick.

Edited by Red Dog
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2 hours ago, Red Dog said:

 

If Ty was so good, why did GB draft two more RBs?

If Ty wasn't good, why did GB wait until the end of the 4th round to start drafting RB?  Like the other guy said, it's because the need was bodies.

 

That said, I'm big on Jones and he undoubtedly earned himself a share of the job.  How big of a share that is will depend on Ty's health and the flow of the game.

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39 minutes ago, billydough said:

If you haven’t watched this yet take a look. 

 

Jones made a couple nice runs but the majority were through gaping holes. I’m not taking anything away from him but to all those thinking Jones is the far superior runner, I think almost any RB in the NFL could’ve done what Jones did in this game. 

Gaping holes?! You can't be serious. Are you watching different tape than I am? A lot of those runs he created his own space through good vision and quickness. I get that their defense sucks but gaping holes? 

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3 hours ago, Red Dog said:

 

If Ty was so good, why did GB draft two more RBs?  Because he's not a great runner.  Jones appears to be quicker and has more burst.  Ty will still contribute, just at a lesser extent.

 

 

because Ty was the only RB left standing last year, so they kinda had to draft a bunch of RBs or at least bring in a ton. 

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2 minutes ago, RoboFroogs said:

Gaping holes?! You can't be serious. Are you watching different tape than I am? A lot of those runs he created his own space through good vision and quickness. I get that their defense sucks but gaping holes? 

 

It was a mix of both. The GB o-line is getting healthier and the Boys were missing Lee as a run-stopper, but Jones did make some really nice moves to create those big runs. Great vision to see the opportunity. A couple he had to cut-back against the grain and picked-up extra yardage. 

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12 hours ago, Anteater99 said:

 

Someone remind me what Ty's YPC is

 

It's 3.3 ypc, btw. I doubt the Packers care what his ypc was last year

 

One way or another, this thread is going to be hindsight-hilarious in a few weeks. Let's enjoy the ride. Together. As a family.

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I'd still think TY gets the majority of work here, but it will be more interesting as the season goes on if Jones keeps it up. The big knock on TY is that he's a terrible pass blocker, so if Jones can prove he can excel there I could see Jones taking the driver's seat by the end of the year. I was never big on TY as a true workhorse RB, which is why I drafted Williams in most of my leagues with the last pick...I just guessed wrong on which RB was going to eventually take over.

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11 minutes ago, miasma16 said:

Of course they do. Last year, Green Bay wasn't missing their Top 4 offensive tackles while he was playing.

Week 1: Ty behind Bakhtiara & Murphy - 19 for 54, 2.8 ypc
Week 3: Ty behind Bulaga & Murphy - 12 for 35, 2.9 ypc
Week 5: Jones behind Bulaga & Taylor - 19 for 125, 6.6 ypc

 

Week 2 and 4 omitted because neither Bakhtiara or Bulaga were active.

But in wks 2 and 4, Ty was respectively 10 for 35 yds and 5 for 28 yds before he got hurt.

Edited by Anteater99
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3 minutes ago, miasma16 said:

Uh, Bakhtari and Bulaga got injured in both of those games?

 

Stop.

Nah.

 

Source: http://packerswire.usatoday.com/2017/10/08/packers-wont-have-starting-offensive-tackle-duo-again/

 

Maybe they're wrong. How would I know?

 

Oh here we go. You're really trying to explain away Ty's really bad ypc, aren't you? Stop.

 

Bakhtiari played all 82 offensive snaps against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 1 but hurt his hamstring, which – even after a mini-bye week – still isn’t healed enough for him to play. Bulaga missed the first two weeks because of an ankle injury and then re-injured the same ankle in the second half of Green Bay’s win over Cincinnati in Week 3. He was inactive last week and admitted his ankle sprain – which is of the “high ankle” variety – is likely to linger all season.

 

I guess I could break down Ty's week 3 1st half vs second half stats but no thanks. This is like talking to a Trump supporter who can't acknowledge things like stats.

Edited by Anteater99
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