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Aaron Jones 2017 Season Outlook


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My 2 cents:

 

The fact that McC gave Ty Mont all that work with broken ribs and flack jacket is not a good sign for AJ imo. My memory/ impression is that McC is a one back kind of guy. To rush Ty back like that to me says he doesn't tryst AJ even after blowing up in Dallas. The fact that Ty dropped an easy TD, which I am guessing is not unrelated to the fact that he has multiple broken ribs and is wearing a flack jacket, and McC STILL trotted him out there adds even more concern that he just really does not trust AJ.

 

AJ mentioned that he ran at least one bad rout and was still learning in an article last week and McC mentioned that "it takes time" to work guys in.

 

Do not like these tea leaves. Thinking it will be Ty Mont  as the bell cow once he's fully healed.

 

With A Rod out and the O line in ruins it probably will not matter anyway.

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36 minutes ago, ST. STEVEN said:

So many variables here. No Rodgers is certainly not a positive development. But it may lead to a forced emphasis on the run game? The even worse development that Rodgers is that 2 pro-bowl tackles re-injured themselves yesterday and a very solid guard went down. They have very little depth but most teams could not survive this series of events. Monty looked bad yesterday and just isn't a great natural runner, Jones is better and he has a chance to be the centerpiece of a gameplan now. He's clearly a firm hold and it will be interesting to see how he's utilized v NO next week.

 

Agree, holding at least another week to see what GB does in a Rodgers-less gameplan.

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29 minutes ago, FreakFries said:

My 2 cents:

 

The fact that McC gave Ty Mont all that work with broken ribs and flack jacket is not a good sign for AJ imo. My memory/ impression is that McC is a one back kind of guy. To rush Ty back like that to me says he doesn't tryst AJ even after blowing up in Dallas. The fact that Ty dropped an easy TD, which I am guessing is not unrelated to the fact that he has multiple broken ribs and is wearing a flack jacket, and McC STILL trotted him out there adds even more concern that he just really does not trust AJ.

 

AJ mentioned that he ran at least one bad rout and was still learning in an article last week and McC mentioned that "it takes time" to work guys in.

 

Do not like these tea leaves. Thinking it will be Ty Mont  as the bell cow once he's fully healed.

 

With A Rod out and the O line in ruins it probably will not matter anyway.

 

I chalk it up more to McCarthy realizing  Hundley’s a rookie QB .. And with a rookie RB he probably didn’t feel comfortable throwing him into fire with 2 rookies back there .. When Ty knows the offense and could help direct hundley the same way Rodgers helped direct jones last week. 

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1 hour ago, Queequeg said:

I'm giving this another week to see if TyMont can last an entire game. If he does, Aaron Jones is an easy drop.

 

 

 Why drop Jones? I am saying as an owner of both Jones and Ty? Ty has literally been injured in one way shape or form in just about every game has has played as an rb. If Ty regains the primary rb responsibilities from Jones, it's just a matter of time before he injures himself. Jones is the best handcuff in fantasy at this point.

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44 minutes ago, FreakFries said:

My 2 cents:

 

The fact that McC gave Ty Mont all that work with broken ribs and flack jacket is not a good sign for AJ imo. My memory/ impression is that McC is a one back kind of guy. To rush Ty back like that to me says he doesn't tryst AJ even after blowing up in Dallas. The fact that Ty dropped an easy TD, which I am guessing is not unrelated to the fact that he has multiple broken ribs and is wearing a flack jacket, and McC STILL trotted him out there adds even more concern that he just really does not trust AJ.

 

AJ mentioned that he ran at least one bad rout and was still learning in an article last week and McC mentioned that "it takes time" to work guys in.

 

Do not like these tea leaves. Thinking it will be Ty Mont  as the bell cow once he's fully healed.

 

With A Rod out and the O line in ruins it probably will not matter anyway.

 I agree with you to a certain extent but then again you need to factor in the nature of the injury. I'm not sure how easy it is to make broken ribs worse but unlike a lower body injury a rib injury is all about if you can handle the pain and doesn't directly affect your running or catching ability (some movements will be more painful than others so in a sense it can restrict your movement but you are still physically able to do everything you would when healthy). I assume TyMont was getting some medical assistance in alleviating the pain so at that point its just a mental game of if he is tentative or scared of taking hits and afraid of being physical. I'm not sure I saw any of that (I didn't watch the whole game though). 

 

I don't view TyMont playing as much as he did a slight to Jones. TyMont was allegedly close to playing last week and he is physically fine (its just handling the pain and not letting it affect you mentally) so I'm not sure why he wouldn't play as much as he did. I think Jones showed enough last week that if they were worried about TyMonts health they wouldn't have played him at all. Its uncertain how the distribution will work going forward especially with Rodgers out. There will likely be more volume available for both but the holes will be significantly smaller and scoring opportunities fewer. 

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2 minutes ago, rbug8 said:

 

 

 Why drop Jones? I am saying as an owner of both Jones and Ty? Ty has literally been injured in one way shape or form in just about every game has has played as an rb. If Ty regains the primary rb responsibilities from Jones, it's just a matter of time before he injures himself. Jones is the best handcuff in fantasy at this point.

 

I only handcuff RBs in good offenses. Without Rodgers, Green Bay ain't that. 

 

 

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LMAO at over reaction central.  AJ is no good because Ty and his mediocre running will take over, or because AR is down. 

 

Darkwa vs 8 in the box going forward is better, as is Ju Ju and his 3 points in standard or 6 in PPR.

 

While AJ and Ty may see some 8 in the box too, at least the Packers have some WRs that need to be defended.

Edited by Red Dog
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15 minutes ago, Queequeg said:

 

I only handcuff RBs in good offenses. Without Rodgers, Green Bay ain't that. 

 

 

Admittedly I know virtually nothing about Hudley but I think its too soon to write GB off as not even a good offense. No they won't be the elite offense they were with Rodgers but they still have arguably the best 3 WR of any team in the NFL and 2 capable RBs than can be leaned on more (yes the holes will shrink without Rodgers). Nelson, Adams, Cobb and TyMont are all dangerous after the catch so even if Hundley throws predominately short throws this offense can still be effective. I don't think its fair to judge Hundley off last weeks performance. He only had 27 snaps in his NFL career up until Sunday. Jumping in the middle of a game and playing with a bunch of guys he probably hasn't played much with against a strong Vikings defense is a tall task. Give this guy a week to practice with the starters and become mentally prepared to be the starter before passing judgement. The Packers can also fine tune the offense to his skill set to make him more successful.

 

That is beside the point that it isn't even clear if Jones is only a handcuff at this point. He very likely will continue to split carries with TyMont and I think is still the favorite for early down work. With Hundley things will be more difficult to come by but I also think there will be more volume to go around. No Jones may not be a top tier handcuff but I don't think he is far off and he could potentially have some stand alone value. I'm not certain what clearly better RB options are on the waivers right now. 

Edited by Jaw1
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18 minutes ago, Jaw1 said:

Admittedly I know virtually nothing about Hudley but I think its too soon to write GB off as not even a good offense. No they won't be the elite offense they were with Rodgers but they still have arguably the best 3 WR of any team in the NFL and 2 capable RBs than can be leaned on more (yes the holes will shrink without Rodgers). Nelson, Adams, Cobb and TyMont are all dangerous after the catch so even if Hundley throws predominately short throws this offense can still be effective. I don't think its fair to judge Hundley off last weeks performance. He only had 27 snaps in his NFL career up until Sunday. Jumping in the middle of a game and playing with a bunch of guys he probably hasn't played much with against a strong Vikings defense is a tall task. Give this guy a week to practice with the starters and become mentally prepared to be the starter before passing judgement. The Packers can also fine tune the offense to his skill set to make him more successful.

 

That is beside the point that it isn't even clear if Jones is only a handcuff at this point. He very likely will continue to split carries with TyMont and I think is still the favorite for early down work. With Hundley things will be more difficult to come by but I also think there will be more volume to go around. No Jones may not be a top tier handcuff but I don't think he is far off and he could potentially have some stand alone value. I'm not certain what clearly better RB options are on the waivers right now. 

 

 

There's of course a chance that Hundley keeps the offense afloat, and a potential shoot-out  with the Saints in Week 7 should be a good litmus test.

 

But if the offense flubs, and TyMont commands ~40-50% of the RB opportunity share and all of the targets, I don't see a reason to hold Jones when players that can help right now are available on the wire. 

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14 minutes ago, Queequeg said:

 

 

There's of course a chance that Hundley keeps the offense afloat, and a potential shoot-out  with the Saints in Week 7 should be a good litmus test.

 

But if the offense flubs, and TyMont commands ~40-50% of the RB opportunity share and all of the targets, I don't see a reason to hold Jones when players that can help right now are available on the wire. 

Could you be more specific about who these players that can help right now are? Especially at the RB position? In my most competitive league (which relatively isn't even that competitive) the top RBs available are Vereen, Gallman, Ivory, West , Richard. None of these guys are clear starters either and I don't see any of them clearly someone who can help more than Jones right away (only exception is Ivory if Fournette misses time). Granted this is a 12 teamer (and PPR) so maybe in a 10 teamer there are some more intriguing options. 

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Yes, olines make a difference, but I'll say RBs do too.  Carson in Seattle is a recent example of someone who could make something out of not much.  And like Carson, I think AJ has that same ability.  We'll see.

Edited by Red Dog
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7 minutes ago, Red Dog said:

Yes, olines make a difference, but I'll say RBs do too.  Carson in Seattle is a recent example of someone who could make something out of not much.  And like Carson, I think AJ has that same ability.  We'll see.

Yes and more recently Adrian Peterson made that dogged AZ Oline like pretty good yesterday too.

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It's fascinating to watch the media concoct a narrative and relentlessly push it. 

 

Quote

 

The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel believes the Packers need to commit to Aaron Jones as their lead back.
 
With Aaron Rodgers potentially out for the year, the Packers are expected to be more run heavy behind Brett Hundley. Jones rotated with Ty Montgomery last week, but continued to outplay him. Montgomery is averaging 3.2 YPC with one run over 10 yards. He's also struggled on first downs, with three negative and six zero-yard rushes. The Packers need to start Jones and ride him to keep pressure off Hundley and the pass game. It's possible Jones takes over the backfield in Week 7 against the Saints.


 

 

Reading this blurb, you'd think Rodgers looks better and is producing better than Montgomery.  The average reader of this Roto blurb would probably be shocked to learn that Montgomery has 3.73 ypc whereas Jones only has 3.46 ypc (against their 2 common opponents).

 

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29 minutes ago, Nap Time said:
 

It's fascinating to watch the media concoct a narrative and relentlessly push it. 

 

 

Reading this blurb, you'd think Rodgers looks better and is producing better than Montgomery.  The average reader of this Roto blurb would probably be shocked to learn that Montgomery has 3.73 ypc whereas Jones only has 3.46 ypc (against their 2 common opponents).

 

Yeah its deceptive but at the end of the day its just an opinion. I think these points are valid though, Jones has looked the more talented runner and GB should lean on the run game more without  Rodgers. "Lead back" is fairly vague but I envision Montgomery still plays a sizable role in this backfield going forward even if Jones takes most of the early down carries. Easy dump off passes will help Hundley establish a rhythm and be a decent safety valve (yes I know Jones can catch too but I think TyMont is the better receiver). 

 

It will be interesting to see how this offense changes to suit Hundley's strengths going forward (especially after the week 8 BYE). He has the weapons around him to have this still be a very good offense. I'm not sure things will ever be clear on Montgomery and Jones' roles will be in the offense and it'll likely be something fluid game to game dependent on who is hot, the score and other factors.  

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2 hours ago, Nap Time said:
 

It's fascinating to watch the media concoct a narrative and relentlessly push it. 

 

 

Reading this blurb, you'd think Rodgers looks better and is producing better than Montgomery.  The average reader of this Roto blurb would probably be shocked to learn that Montgomery has 3.73 ypc whereas Jones only has 3.46 ypc (against their 2 common opponents).

 

Against their two common opponents, in fair weather, against dime defenses, when theirs less than 6 minutes remaining in an odd numbered quarter. Quit making excuses, Jones is the better back. Anyone with a pair of functioning eyeballs could tell you that

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Best way for Packers to help Brett Hundley? Play Aaron Jones

 

 

 

Quote

GREEN BAY – It would be nice if Green Bay Packers quarterback Brett Hundley had a veteran running back at his side when he makes his first NFL start against the New Orleans Saints.

Someone like John Kuhn, who knew the offense inside and out and would help Hundley set protections and be an insurance policy for any mistakes made along the offensive line.

But as reassuring as that might be for Packers coach Mike McCarthy in his first game without starter Aaron Rodgers in the lineup since 2013, there’s a better option.

His name is Aaron Jones.

As much of a risk as it is to have a rookie in the backfield with a quarterback who had played a total of 27 NFL snaps before replacing the injured Rodgers on Sunday in Minneapolis, it’s the best thing McCarthy can do for Hundley.

Jones had to split time with starter Ty Montgomery against the Vikings, but anyone who watched Jones in Dallas or saw him stay alive on a couple of doomed runs Sunday had to be impressed with what he brings to the offense.

 

The game against the Vikings might have been a lot different if Hundley had been able to complete a pair of screen passes to Jones in the fourth quarter of the Packers’ 23-10 loss. Hundley sailed both because he was under immense pressure and everyone was left to imagine what might have happened.

Jones didn’t get a chance to really get in a rhythm because McCarthy decided to alternate series with him and Montgomery, who was playing for the first time since breaking ribs against Chicago in Week 4. Only in the fourth quarter, when Montgomery’s ribs appeared to be bothering him, did McCarthy stick with Jones.

 

“We went into the game that way with the uncertainty of Ty Montgomery,” McCarthy said Wednesday, seeming to indicate Montgomery would have played more if healthy.

It would be a mistake not to let Jones be the lead back.

There are a couple of things you can count on now that Hundley has replaced Rodgers and one is that the offense is going to look different as the weeks go on because Hundley can’t do everything Rodgers can.

Another would be that opposing teams are going to do everything they can to make Hundley be the one who beats them. You can bet the house that the New Orleans Saints are going to load up the line of scrimmage with run defenders and potential blitzers to overwhelm Hundley on Sunday at Lambeau Field.

Two running-back assets that would really help in this situation are pass-protection skills and speed and quickness.

Jones is just OK as a blocker, but what has been evident repeatedly is that he will patiently read his blocks, cut back if necessary and make defenders miss. Montgomery is a better blocker, but his power style and lack of natural ability — he’s a former wide receiver — have resulted in poor results so far.

If Hundley is going to succeed, the Packers are going to have to take pressure off him by running the ball.

“The running game is maybe going to be our best asset,” veteran guard Jahri Evans said. “Not saying that we don’t have guys who can make plays on the outside.

“We just don’t want to be one-dimensional and have to (pass) all the time. Being able to get some yards on early downs in the run game, I think it’s going to help us a lot.”

Jones has been considerably more effective than Montgomery in that department this season.

Overall, Jones has carried 45 times for 215 yards (4.8-yard average) and two touchdowns with a long run of 22 yards. On first down, according to statistics kept by the Journal Sentinel, Jones has carried 26 times for 122 yards (4.69).

Of his 26 carries on first down, he has only one negative rush.

Montgomery has carried 56 times for 180 yards (3.2) and two touchdowns with a long run of 11 yards this season. He is averaging 3.0 yards per carry and has three negative rushes and six for zero yards on first down.

If there’s anything that would help Hundley, it would be good production on first down.

But there are other factors that make Jones a good fit.

The combination of two players with Hundley and Jones’ speed could greatly enhance bootleg fakes since defenders would know they can’t be late when it comes to chasing Jones on outside running plays and over-pursue. If Hundley gets around the corner off one of those fakes, he would have more time to throw and an option to run.

Another possibility would be some read-option, where Hundley hands off or keeps the ball based on whether the ends play the running back or the quarterback. It’s not going to be a staple of the offense, but Jones’ quick-twitch ability could result in him breaking through the line before the defense can tell who has the ball.

As Evans, who was only talking in general terms and not favoring one back over the other, pointed out, the Saints are going to play a lot of different fronts to try to confuse Hundley and the offensive line. The Packers are going to have to keep them off balance.

“The quickest thing that will get them out of those exotic looks is to catch them in a good run where they’re not gap sound and bust one,” said Evans, who played 11 seasons with the Saints before joining the Packers. "We have to keep them honest and keep them out of those exotic looks.”

Montgomery hasn’t had a big game since Week 14 last season against Chicago when he rushed 16 times for 162 yards and two touchdowns. He played an amazing 205 snaps in the first three games, but all he had to show for it was 124 yards on 41 carries (3.0 average) with two touchdowns.

He was better catching out of the backfield, posting 18 receptions for 129 yards and a touchdown.

The most logical way to go would be to make Jones the lead back and Montgomery a third-down specialist. Jones earned 19 carries against the Dallas Cowboys in his first career start because he kept making something happen, finishing with 125 yards rushing and 9 yards receiving.

Rodgers called Jones’ number twice on the game-winning drive because he believed he could gash the Cowboys defense.

Heading into the Saints game, the Packers’ run game is unsettled. Maybe it’s a work in progress, maybe not.

“It’s always a work in progress,” fullback Aaron Ripkowski said. “It’s week to week. It’s not really a destination to get to like, ‘Oh, our running game is working now’ because every week is different because of schemes you’re going against.

“There are so many variables that it’s always a work in progress.”

Still, McCarthy can move it along considerably by committing to Jones.

 

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Edited by Red Dog
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2 hours ago, Red Dog said:

 

Yup, that's the retarded article which pretends the Cowboys game was meaningful.

 

2 hours ago, dakimbell said:

 in fair weather, against dime defenses, when theirs less than 6 minutes remaining in an odd numbered quarter. Quit making excuses

 

Exactly! Quit making excuses for Jones.  Just look at ypc vs. common opponents and let the numbers speak for themselves. 

 

Jones has earned at most 40% of the snaps if Aaron Rodgers were still there, 20% would be more appropriate.  But we'll never know.  Now that Hundley is the QB, it's a whole different dynamic.

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6 hours ago, Nap Time said:

 

Yup, that's the retarded article which pretends the Cowboys game was meaningful.

 

 

Exactly! Quit making excuses for Jones.  Just look at ypc vs. common opponents and let the numbers speak for themselves. 

 

Jones has earned at most 40% of the snaps if Aaron Rodgers were still there, 20% would be more appropriate.  But we'll never know.  Now that Hundley is the QB, it's a whole different dynamic.

 

Good grief. Go to the Montgomery thread and cry about it. 

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17 minutes ago, PackerBacker555 said:

He took first team snaps yesterday. 

 

Thinking this maybe more of a timeshare BUT what are the odds we see Montgomery as Wr a bit more with the new offense

 

I think that's what would work best for the Packers. As much as Nap Time wants to complain about the media pushing AJ as the lead RB, it's probably the route the Packers need to go. Because Aaron Jones and Jamal Williams are ACTUAL RBs. Montgomery was a WR in college and began his NFL career as a WR before being moved to RB out of necessity last year. I can see him being a hybrid type of players who makes an impact all over the field...at RB, in the slot, out wide, at H-back. He is a versatile player, and I do believe that one day the Packers are going to look to hand the RB keys to a RB corps they trust and move Ty all over the field and utilize his talents. 

 

We'll see what the Pack does. I could be wrong, but I just don't see Montgomery staying at RB for the duration of his career. 

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