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Aaron Jones 2017 Season Outlook


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6 minutes ago, dakimbell said:

Some definitely valid points, but I just don't think Ty can stay healthy for long stretches making AJones the guy to own… I will also add I think Jones is considerably better runner, and Ty is only marginally better pass catching back…

I own Jones in all my leagues and TyMont in a few and if I had to choose one I'd probably pick Jones for the reasons you stated. However, in PPR its much closer. If Jones was a bell cow like TyMont was the first few weeks (or like he was the week TyMont was out) I think Jones would do much better than TyMont but save for an injury (which is always possible but becomes less likely with TyMont splitting carries) I don't see that happening (for the success of Packers offense it makes sense to incorporate both) and both guys cap each others value at like RB2s with the RB3/flex probably more appropriate to capture the likely volatility in their performances and roles on a week to week basis. 

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I own both and am benching both of them for henry and darkwa.  Just no clue how their workload with pan out and thus, I'm more confident in Henry than either of these two if that puts my worry into perspective. 

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6 hours ago, Jaw1 said:

I don't buy this. Dude is a football player, he has the size and skill set to play both and has played both effectively at the NFL level. He is dangerous with the ball in his hands, it doesn't really matter how that happens especially since he was a slot receiver (which on most offenses gets short passes expected to go less than 10 yards in a fashion that is more of a substitute for the running game than a true pass mean't to stretch the field and get a big gain). In fact, he was a RB growing up through high school and began to shift toward WR since he was being recruited more strongly for that position. That obviously speaks to how coaches and football minds view him most valuable so it isn't insignificant. Packers obviously felt confident enough after what they saw that they let Starks and Lacy walk and didn't replace them with win-now talent in FA (if they didn't want him to be a RB they had ample opportunities to replace him and could've traded him or one of their other WRs to make room at WR so yes he was a RB out of necessity last year mid-season but he isn't this year). Additionally, it isn't a coincidence that Packers drafted 3 RB in the 2017 draft either. They felt confident enough to wait until the second day but got Williams in the 4th (he projected as a bruising type early down back who would complement Montgomery well) and Jones in the 5th (different style runner than Williams as a smaller, quicker guy) and Devante Mays in the 7th. It probably had to do a lot with making sure they had depth after Montgomery was their only RB but they obviously felt comfortable with Montgomery at least in the short term.

 

Things worked out ideally for the Packers since Montgomery got injured (he got injured last year too) and Jones was able to step in and impress. Jones definitely appeared the more natural runner but that isn't the only thing that matters for a RB especially in the Packers offense. Jones definitely carved out a role for himself in the backfield at the expense of Montgomery but its unclear how big a role that is. With Hundley now the QB it throws things into further uncertainty since its unclear how the Packers will adjust the offense to fit Hundley's strengths and mask his weaknesses. Jones seems the better runner (not to say Montgomery isn't a capable runner) which makes him better suited for early downs and Montgomery seems the better receiver (not to say Jones isn't a capable receiver) so one would assume their roles would roughly break upon those lines. I don't think either will be truly dominant over the backfield and their relative usage will likely be something subject to a combination of gameflow and match ups. AKA this backfield will likely be a bit of a headache for fantasy owners and it'll be tough for either Jones or TyMont to return consistent or maybe even predictable value. 

 

You don't buy that he's a WR playing RB? Even if you don't buy it, it's still true. He was a WR his SR year of high school. He was a WR at Stanford. He was drafted by the Packers as a WR. He played as a WR for the Pack until it became necessary to move him to the backfield, and it worked because he does have the stature of a RB. Yeah, the guy is a football player (and I get what you mean by that)...so are the other 52 players on Green Bay's roster. In the NFL there are WRs who could play TE...OTs who are athletic enough to play TE...interior OL who could play DT...DEs who could play LB and vice versa...Safeties who could play Corner and vice versa. Just like there are other WRs who could play RB and RBs who could play WR. But the fact of the matter is that Ty was shifted to RB out of necessity. Green Bay has never committed to him as their RB of the future, and the likelihood is that he'll play his career out as a very versatile player who can line up in the slot, at H-back, at FB, at RB. 

 

I'm not trying to be obstinate or rude...just offering a reminder perspective. Jones is a rookie, and I'm not jumping on his hype train. He could come out and fall flat on his face and wash out of the league in a year or two. I do think the conditions and the game flow will favor him today over Montgomery, but both will get their opportunities. 

 

And you are correct...this backfield will be tough to peg and owners will need to monitor it weekly. Honestly, that's part of the fun for me, LOL. 

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5 minutes ago, herschel said:

Debating between Cobb and Jones at my flex PPR.  Leaning Jones due to the weather....i read reports of snow.  Is that accurate?

 

mid to high 50's lots of rain.

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There seems to be a lot of optimism about a guy who's a 5th round rookie, 19th rookie RB drafted, and was a clearly 3rd choice on his own team until injuries hit. He's had a total of 45 carries in his career and basically hasn't done much outside of thrashing a poor Cowboys defense. He barely outplayed a sill hurt Montgomery last week. If Rodgers was still around and Jones was the lead back, then you'd have interest. But sans Rodgers, the Packers look bad, so not sure he's any different then an Alex Collins or Isiah Crowell or another back who will get a handful of carries on a bad offense. Unless Hundley is way better than I think he is

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1 minute ago, Jericho said:

There seems to be a lot of optimism about a guy who's a 5th round rookie, 19th rookie RB drafted, and was a clearly 3rd choice on his own team until injuries hit. He's had a total of 45 carries in his career and basically hasn't done much outside of thrashing a poor Cowboys defense. He barely outplayed a sill hurt Montgomery last week. If Rodgers was still around and Jones was the lead back, then you'd have interest. But sans Rodgers, the Packers look bad, so not sure he's any different then an Alex Collins or Isiah Crowell or another back who will get a handful of carries on a bad offense. Unless Hundley is way better than I think he is

I guess you havent started watching the early games yet?

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7 minutes ago, dakimbell said:

I guess you havent started watching the early games yet?

Packers have been dominating the Saints at the line. The line has been and continues to be the story for the Packer running game, as it is for most teams. 

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Well I didn't expect that at all. At least I own him in all my leagues. Started TyMont over him in one since I thought Packers would be behind a lot and would play him more. Anybody have an idea of what the snap count was like later in the game after they went down? Packers showed they obviously want to rely on Jones going forward and got him involved early and often which is probably a good idea since Hundley didn't look too great. The gameflow heavily favored Jones early on with the Saints picks and the early TD. He looks like a solid RB2 with upside since Hundley should only get better coming off the BYE next week. 

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3 minutes ago, Jaw1 said:

Well I didn't expect that at all. At least I own him in all my leagues. Started TyMont over him in one since I thought Packers would be behind a lot and would play him more. Anybody have an idea of what the snap count was like later in the game after they went down? Packers showed they obviously want to rely on Jones going forward and got him involved early and often which is probably a good idea since Hundley didn't look too great. The gameflow heavily favored Jones early on with the Saints picks and the early TD. He looks like a solid RB2 with upside since Hundley should only get better coming off the BYE next week. 

 

The packers went up 1 touchdown in the first quarter and the Saints promptly tied it up in the beginning of the second quarter. The Pack never led by more than 1 score, I don't really think you can say the gameflow heavily favored Jones at any point during the game. 

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