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Aaron Jones 2017 Season Outlook


munde53
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This dude is the real deal.  Also, the Packers line should be healthy for the first time coming out of the bye.   Add to this the fact that they will probably be focusing on running the ball more during practice and it’s a recipe for success.  I find it hard to believe that there’s still people out there that don’t think this kid is the real deal.  

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17 hours ago, CrastersCreep said:

Wish I had a better idea of what he is ROS. Is he a volatile RB2? Is he an upside RB2? Will his ppr value improve? So many unknowns.

Anybody that says they saw a split that extreme in favor of Jones last week is lying, but it happened.

 

The line is healthy and looking great after last week.

 

There is still the question of Hundley. The Saints were very stupid to not sell out against the run last week. That game could've very easily been a blowout. I don't imagine many teams will make the same mistake.

 

Regardless, Jones is a very talented running back playing behind a good line, and McCarthy seems to recognize that Green Bay needs to run the ball early because Hundley is terrible. He should be perceived as a RB2 at floor with RB1 upside. Health is a concern for any rookie running back, and Jones already missed basically the entire season before last due to injury, so Montgomery, clearly, is an elite handcuff at this point.

Edited by miasma16
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2 hours ago, thejosef said:

Sooo do we drop Ty now?  Aaron seems to have taken over.. big time. 

 

I like Jones a lot.  But TY is good cuff, so I’d keep him on the roster if possible (100% in PPR)

 

Hundley looks bad, so defenses may focus on stopping the run.  

 

We don’t know what the GB coaches will do.

 

We don’t know if TY will be the passing back when healthy.

 

We don’t know if Jones can shoulder the load for the rest of the season.

 

We haven’t seen Hundley + Jones succeed in the passing game.

 

There are enough questions to stash TY (at least for a while).

 

Jones looks like the best RB on roster, and it’s not close (from a small sample size), but coaches do strange things sometimes.

 

Mack also looks like the best RB on the roster for the Colts, but they haven’t made him the feature back.  With Dion Lewis we can at least point to his injury history for why he’s not dominating carries.  We think we know how this will play out, but it’s not with 100% certainty.

 

etc.

 

Keep TY for now.

 

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6 hours ago, furbz420 said:

 

Great video. I expected him to look awesome running the ball but I was surprised with the catching as well. Bye bye TY. 

 

My pleasure. I know right, very underrated receiver by the general crowd at least so far. For some reason wasn't really mentioned much throughout the draft process either, other than like "can be used in the receiving game". I always thought that was odd. As I mentioned earlier, to me his receiving skills were as good as any running back in this draft class.

 

Probably my favorite Aaron Jones play that wasn't in the video above:

 

pQgokX.gif

 

Seen many running backs do that?

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5 hours ago, miasma16 said:

Anybody that says they saw a split that extreme in favor of Jones last week is lying, but it happened.

 

The line is healthy and looking great after last week.

 

There is still the question of Hundley. The Saints were very stupid to not sell out against the run last week. That game could've very easily been a blowout. I don't imagine many teams will make the same mistake.

 

Regardless, Jones is a very talented running back playing behind a good line, and McCarthy seems to recognize that Green Bay needs to run the ball early because Hundley is terrible. He should be perceived as a RB2 at floor with RB1 upside. Health is a concern for any rookie running back, and Jones already missed basically the entire season before last due to injury, so Montgomery, clearly, is an elite handcuff at this point.

Ty hasn't been "elite" anything aside from one game in 2016, so clearly not an elite handcuff.  This is a WR turned into a RB who plays like a WR.  The writing has been on the wall for a while, there just hasn't been enough talent to unseat him.  Jones is a real talent (and an actual RB) who has a chance to return RB1 value, so I agree with you there.  However, Ty is at most a decent handcuff.  Even if Jones gets hurt, I wouldn't expect much from a guy getting less than 3 yds per carry when touching the ball more than 10 times per game.  With Rodgers done, so goes the pass happy RB usage.  This team needs a true RB for the rest of the season to take some pressure off Hundley, which by the way...it's way too early to say Hundley is terrible.  It was one start, in the rain.  The kid will adjust and only get better, especially with the weapons he has around him.  I expect to see some improvement out of the bye.

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32 minutes ago, Yceman1234 said:

Ty hasn't been "elite" anything aside from one game in 2016, so clearly not an elite handcuff.  This is a WR turned into a RB who plays like a WR.  The writing has been on the wall for a while, there just hasn't been enough talent to unseat him.  Jones is a real talent (and an actual RB) who has a chance to return RB1 value, so I agree with you there.  However, Ty is at most a decent handcuff.  Even if Jones gets hurt, I wouldn't expect much from a guy getting less than 3 yds per carry when touching the ball more than 10 times per game.  With Rodgers done, so goes the pass happy RB usage.  This team needs a true RB for the rest of the season to take some pressure off Hundley, which by the way...it's way too early to say Hundley is terrible.  It was one start, in the rain.  The kid will adjust and only get better, especially with the weapons he has around him.  I expect to see some improvement out of the bye.

Name higher upside handcuffs. I'll wait. 

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29 minutes ago, iheartrubio said:

No doubt.  Most of us here were expecting Jones to get the bulk.

Maybe in silence. Seems like I was on an island for most of the time I was in this thread trying to explain why TyMont isn't a good running back.

Edited by Anteater99
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17 minutes ago, miasma16 said:

Name higher upside handcuffs. I'll wait. 

If I'm being honest, I'd rather have all these guys over Ty Mont, given an injury to the respective starting RB (and with Rodgers out).  Off the top of my head, in no particular order: Mack, Foreman, Cohen, Conner, Henry, Ivory, Charles, DWash/Richard.  I suppose I could just start going through depth charts, but I think I've made my point.  Montgomery is not an elite handcuff.

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24 minutes ago, Yceman1234 said:

If I'm being honest, I'd rather have all these guys over Ty Mont, given an injury to the respective starting RB (and with Rodgers out).  Off the top of my head, in no particular order: Mack, Foreman, Cohen, Conner, Henry, Ivory, Charles, DWash/Richard.  I suppose I could just start going through depth charts, but I think I've made my point.  Montgomery is not an elite handcuff.

Henry is better. Conner is unproven, but I've owned him. That's arguable at best. Lol @ the Oakland backs, how are they better handcuffs if you don't even know which one is the handcuff? Then you named off a bunch of guys that have terrible offensive lines.

 

There are 1, maybe 2 guys with RB1 potential (outside of McFadden and Morris, who likely will split carries imo) if their lead back goes down. Stick your fingers in your ears all you want, but Montgomery was one of the better backs in the NFL last season and was very productive in spite of his team running guys that aren't even tackles at tackle the entire time he was healthy. You're just making yourself look foolish saying you'd rather own DeAndre Washington. 

Edited by miasma16
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16 minutes ago, Yceman1234 said:

If I'm being honest, I'd rather have all these guys over Ty Mont, given an injury to the respective starting RB (and with Rodgers out).  Off the top of my head, in no particular order: Mack, Foreman, Cohen, Conner, Henry, Ivory, Charles, DWash/Richard.  I suppose I could just start going through depth charts, but I think I've made my point.  Montgomery is not an elite handcuff.

 

I’d take maybe Mack, Foreman, Cohen at the same level (maybe a bit higher) vs. a healthy TY in PPR.

 

Ivory, Charles (age, injury history), DWash/Richard below TY.

 

Mack (I own) he should be the starter.  Possibly Foreman too.  Cohen could be an elite cuff...

 

Henry I no longer know... Murray is something like 20th in PPR.  I’m dropping Henry for Deon Lewis.  The titans run game is underperforming.

 

TY is a good cuff. I’d keep him if you own Jones.

 

 

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9 minutes ago, miasma16 said:

Henry is better. Conner is unproven, but I've owned him. That's arguable at best. Lol @ the Oakland backs, how are they better handcuffs if you don't even know which one is the handcuff? Then you named off a bunch of guys that have terrible offensive lines.

 

There are 1, maybe 2 guys with RB1 potential (outside of McFadden and Morris, who likely will split carries imo) if their lead back goes down. Stick your fingers in your ears all you want, but Montgomery was one of the better backs in the NFL last season and was very productive in spite of his team running guys that aren't even tackles at tackle the entire time he was healthy. You're just making yourself look foolish saying you'd rather own DeAndre Washington. 

Last time I checked, people can have opinions on these forums.  Even if I think you're completely delusional with some of yours (true), it's still just my opinion (although there are many more ppl than just myself who don't think Ty Mont is elite...you apparently consider him a RB1 if Jones goes down, which is laughable, but again, just my opinion).  Let's just hope Jones stays healthy and dominates this backfield so these hypothetical Ty Mont handcuffs never come into play.  GB fans/GB fantasy skill player owners have suffered enough with Rodgers going down.

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Jones had a good game on the ground, no one can dispute this. 

 

Ty barely touched the ball, no one can dispute this. 

 

The Packers lost the game at home, no one can dispute this. 

 

Green Bay managed 3 points in the second half. 

 

I am NOT saying GB lost because Ty wasn’t involved so don’t even go there. What I will say is despite Jones having a good game they lost at home and it wasn’t all that close. I feel like the CS will be trying to figure out how to win games going forward. This may or may not include Jones getting as many touches as he did at Ty’s expense going forward. 

 

Fantasy managers are very happy with RB who pile up yards but real life managers want to win games. If GB had pounded AJ all day and won the game controlling the ball then I would be more optimistic about AJ ROS outlook but the reality is they lost. And because of this no one should be anointing AJ a RB1 ROS. Could he?  Sure. There are just too many variables right now. 

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10 minutes ago, billydough said:

Jones had a good game on the ground, no one can dispute this. 

 

Ty barely touched the ball, no one can dispute this. 

 

The Packers lost the game at home, no one can dispute this. 

 

Green Bay managed 3 points in the second half. 

 

I am NOT saying GB lost because Ty wasn’t involved so don’t even go there. What I will say is despite Jones having a good game they lost at home and it wasn’t all that close. I feel like the CS will be trying to figure out how to win games going forward. This may or may not include Jones getting as many touches as he did at Ty’s expense going forward. 

 

Fantasy managers are very happy with RB who pile up yards but real life managers want to win games. If GB had pounded AJ all day and won the game controlling the ball then I would be more optimistic about AJ ROS outlook but the reality is they lost. And because of this no one should be anointing AJ a RB1 ROS. Could he?  Sure. There are just too many variables right now. 

At half it was 14-7 Packers and Jones had 100 yards and a TD on 13 first half touches. So I would like to raise a counter arguement and say the packers lost because they quit using Jones. After halftime he got only 7 touches and even someone who has never watched football could tell you he was by far their most effective offensive player last week and if they want to win sans Rodgers they should be giving their best offensive players the most touches.

Edited by Ddam2013
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8 minutes ago, billydough said:

Jones had a good game on the ground, no one can dispute this. 

 

Ty barely touched the ball, no one can dispute this. 

 

The Packers lost the game at home, no one can dispute this. 

 

Green Bay managed 3 points in the second half. 

 

I am NOT saying GB lost because Ty wasn’t involved so don’t even go there. What I will say is despite Jones having a good game they lost at home and it wasn’t all that close. I feel like the CS will be trying to figure out how to win games going forward. This may or may not include Jones getting as many touches as he did at Ty’s expense going forward. 

 

Fantasy managers are very happy with RB who pile up yards but real life managers want to win games. If GB had pounded AJ all day and won the game controlling the ball then I would be more optimistic about AJ ROS outlook but the reality is they lost. And because of this no one should be anointing AJ a RB1 ROS. Could he?  Sure. There are just too many variables right now. 

 

I agree.  Jones isn’t a RB1 yet.  I think the disagreement is because we all have different definitions on what is a RB2, RB1, Elite RB1, etc.

 

For me, an RB1 is a top 10 RB.  If he catches a few passes last week he’d be in the RB1 discussion...

 

Green Bay is a difficult position, I don’t think they’re built to win games on the back of the running game.  If we want to be optimistic the O line is average, and the D is not that great.  With Rodgers and maybe the best set of WRs in the game, they need to put up 25 points.  Hundley is going to throw interceptions, so that number is likely higher.

 

I sure they want to run Jones all day, but if they do that they’ll lose to all the good teams.  This limits Jones’s upside unless he’s out there all downs.

 

I agree “there are to many variables”...

 

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16 minutes ago, Ddam2013 said:

At half it was 14-7 Packers and Jones had 100 yards and a TD on 13 first half touches. So I would like to raise a counter arguement and say the packers lost because they quit using Jones. After halftime he got only 7 touches and even someone who has never watched football could tell you he was by far their most effective offensive player last week and if they want to win sans Rodgers they should be giving their best offensive players the most touches.

 

See that’s where we disagree.  

 

Unless Hundley plays better, no matter how well Jones plays, they’re not going to remain “alive” in the division until Rodgers returns.

 

If Hundley is who we saw in the last game... GB is Fk’d.

 

The coach’s know this.  They have no choice to ask Hundley to make plays, and hopefully improve.  I do think Jones in the passing game/relief valve can be part of the solution.

 

Will they do that? Maybe, or they might think TY/Cobb/the TE should take that role...

 

Right now (with limited data) the Hundley + Jones chemistry isn’t that great.

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