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Aaron Jones 2017 Season Outlook


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47 minutes ago, Ddam2013 said:

At half it was 14-7 Packers and Jones had 100 yards and a TD on 13 first half touches. So I would like to raise a counter arguement and say the packers lost because they quit using Jones. After halftime he got only 7 touches and even someone who has never watched football could tell you he was by far their most effective offensive player last week and if they want to win sans Rodgers they should be giving their best offensive players the most touches.

So now Jones is GB best offensive player?

 

Some of you need to slow your roll.

 

Do you honestly think if Jones had received another 13 touches in the second half GB would’ve won?  

 

Perhaps they should’ve given Jones the ball on every play and GB would’ve won ?

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11 minutes ago, Anteater99 said:

He's just trying to keep up with you.

 

I don’t see a good cuff situation for the Raiders.  There is already a bit of a 3 way RBBC.  If Lynch is gone (for example) it becomes a 2 way RBBC.

 

I don’t want any part of that either...

 

I’m also not chasing the Cowboys cuffs, until someone takes the top dog position, it’s to risky to stash one of them vs. the alternatives.

 

This means I’m almost certainly missing out on a solid RB2, but I’d rather stash Mack than play roulette. 

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6 minutes ago, billydough said:

So now Jones is GB best offensive player?

 

Some of you need to slow your roll.

 

Do you honestly think if Jones had received another 13 touches in the second half GB would’ve won?  

 

Perhaps they should’ve given Jones the ball on every play and GB would’ve won ?

 I'm saying last week he was their most effective/best player in the first week without rodgers and this is now the only week we have to judge this offense off of.  With Hundley as the GB QB for the rest of the season if they want to win games they will not be doing it by throwing the ball they will need to use the Chicago/Jacksonville strategy of hiding the QB, running the crap out the ball and hoping the defense can keep the game close. Not saying it's a good strategy or even one that will work for them ROS but at this point it is their only hope.

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1 minute ago, Ddam2013 said:

 I'm saying last week he was their most effective/best player. With Hundley as the GB QB for the rest of the season if they want to win games they will not be doing it by throwing the ball they will need to use the Chicago/Jacksonville strategy of hiding the QB, running the crap out the ball and hoping the defense can keep the game close. Not saying it's a good strategy or even one that will work for them ROS but at this point it is their only hope.

 

Their only hope is Hundley plays better.  As I said, GB isn’t built that way... (running all day)

 

Jones can be part of the answer, but he’s not the solution.

 

Going into last week Hundley was touted as someone that can step up.  I expressed doubts, and streamed Beathard instead.

 

I was right (at least between those two) but now Hundley is getting written off completely...

 

I agree he was terrible.  But the coaches still have options, they need to run more of a college offense tailored to Hundley.

 

That’s one heck of a transition to make in a week... we’ll see if they can pull it off.

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9 minutes ago, seanismorris said:

 

Their only hope is Hundley plays better.  As I said, GB isn’t built that way... (running all day)

 

Jones can be part of the answer, but he’s not the solution.

 

Going into last week Hundley was touted as someone that can step up.  I expressed doubts, and streamed Beathard instead.

 

I was right (at least between those two) but now Hundley is getting written off completely...

 

I agree he was terrible.  But the coaches still have options, they need to run more of a college offense tailored to Hundley.

 

That’s one heck of a transition to make in a week... we’ll see if they can pull it off.

don't remember that at all

 

Anyway bye timing couldn't be much better. HUndley doesn't have to be Joe Montana, they just have to have the threat of a competent aerial game to keep less than 8 in the box. Some of you guys are a little too gung ho about gameflow. (in FF generally, i've been guilty of it too) Jones will still get touches no matter what the score because he is a great catching back. He's very talented and he will get his no matter what. Sure some weeks gameflow will work less or more in his favor. This is the same for every HB on every team.

 

He was free. Let's chill and enjoy the ride. I sure am.

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43 minutes ago, Anteater99 said:

don't remember that at all

 

Anyway bye timing couldn't be much better. HUndley doesn't have to be Joe Montana, they just have to have the threat of a competent aerial game to keep less than 8 in the box. Some of you guys are a little too gung ho about gameflow. (in FF generally, i've been guilty of it too) Jones will still get touches no matter what the score because he is a great catching back. He's very talented and he will get his no matter what. Sure some weeks gameflow will work less or more in his favor. This is the same for every HB on every team.

 

He was free. Let's chill and enjoy the ride. I sure am.

 

No one thought Hundley could replace Rodgers, but he was listed as a top waiver wire add.  Especially streaming him against the Saints.

 

90% of what we’re doing is arguing is if Jones is a RB2 or a RB1.

 

Either way we’ll be starting him until further notice.  

 

If would be nice if Hundley could keep the ship afloat until Rodgers returns... it’s a long shot but some of us are still hoping.

 

I just want to see more plays of Rodgers last minute heroics (like the TD win over the Cowboys). Classic.

 

I’m a Denver fan (head down in shame) so I have to root for someone... my boy Watson (who I own), Jones, and Hill (WR) isn’t a bad treo.

 

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Hundley was a top waiver wire add because a lot of people just lost Rodgers + at this point in the season all the good (or even decent) WW quarterbacks have already been scooped. This is not at all the same as people saying Hundley could "step up" I did not hear one person suggest or even slightly intimate that Hundley would be successful. at all. He was a speculative WW add due only to the weapons around him and anyone who streamed him in a 1 QB league must be absolutely barren at QB to stream a guy in his first NFL start with no inkling that he would be successful

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3 hours ago, Ddam2013 said:

 I'm saying last week he was their most effective/best player in the first week without rodgers and this is now the only week we have to judge this offense off of.  With Hundley as the GB QB for the rest of the season if they want to win games they will not be doing it by throwing the ball they will need to use the Chicago/Jacksonville strategy of hiding the QB, running the crap out the ball and hoping the defense can keep the game close. Not saying it's a good strategy or even one that will work for them ROS but at this point it is their only hope.

this is not how nfl games are won. chicago and jacksonville for starters have much better defenses then GB. neither of them have anywhere near the level of talent at wr. in the nfl you play to your teams strength and the gb offense's strength is predicated on attacking downfield. sure theres going to be something of a philosphical shift without rodgers but this team isnt suddenly becoming the bears nor are they equipped to even if they wanted to. 

 

you dont win games by hiding your qb in todays nfl. hundley also has been in the system for multiple years and has always shown well in the preseason. hes going go likely play better after the bye. jones will be a big part of the offense but thinking theyre going to suddenly become a team thats wins with their d and run game isnt happening.

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Updated PFF grades are out. A lovely read. RB6 overall in run grade. RB2 overall in pass pro.

 

PFF Elite Stat: Jones is one of just three running backs who’ve carried the ball fewer than 70 times this season to have at least five runs of 15 yards or more.

Jones has seen at least 43 snaps in each of the last three weeks (after not seeing a single snap prior to Week 4) and has graded at 87.8 or better in two of those three games. His 86.7 run grade ranks sixth among running backs and he’s thrived right from the get-go in an area that typically gives rookie backs trouble: pass protection. Jones is one of 24 backs who’ve been asked to pass protect at least 20 times this season, he's allowed just one pressure and his 85.4 pass-blocking grade trails only CJ Anderson.

 

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37 minutes ago, Alconbury said:

Updated PFF grades are out. A lovely read. RB6 overall in run grade. RB2 overall in pass pro.

 

PFF Elite Stat: Jones is one of just three running backs who’ve carried the ball fewer than 70 times this season to have at least five runs of 15 yards or more.

Jones has seen at least 43 snaps in each of the last three weeks (after not seeing a single snap prior to Week 4) and has graded at 87.8 or better in two of those three games. His 86.7 run grade ranks sixth among running backs and he’s thrived right from the get-go in an area that typically gives rookie backs trouble: pass protection. Jones is one of 24 backs who’ve been asked to pass protect at least 20 times this season, he's allowed just one pressure and his 85.4 pass-blocking grade trails only CJ Anderson.

 

Football Outsiders is extremely high on him as well. 

 

Out of all qualified RBs with 56 carries. 

-#3 in DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) Behind only Devonta Freeman and Kareem Hunt. 

-#3 in success rate of a play when he runs. 

-#6 in DYAR Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement

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31 minutes ago, Alconbury said:

 

31 minutes ago, Alconbury said:

Updated PFF grades are out. A lovely read. RB6 overall in run grade. RB2 overall in pass pro.

 

PFF Elite Stat: Jones is one of just three running backs who’ve carried the ball fewer than 70 times this season to have at least five runs of 15 yards or more.

Jones has seen at least 43 snaps in each of the last three weeks (after not seeing a single snap prior to Week 4) and has graded at 87.8 or better in two of those three games. His 86.7 run grade ranks sixth among running backs and he’s thrived right from the get-go in an area that typically gives rookie backs trouble: pass protection. Jones is one of 24 backs who’ve been asked to pass protect at least 20 times this season, he's allowed just one pressure and his 85.4 pass-blocking grade trails only CJ Anderson.

 

this is all because the Packers O line is finally healthy.

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10 hours ago, seanismorris said:

 

No one thought Hundley could replace Rodgers, but he was listed as a top waiver wire add.  Especially streaming him against the Saints.

 

 

The only people who thought streaming him against the Saints last week was a good idea were the ones who haven't paid attention to this season and just assumed he would be facing the "same ole Saints." 

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8 hours ago, CrastersCreep said:

this is not how nfl games are won. chicago and jacksonville for starters have much better defenses then GB. neither of them have anywhere near the level of talent at wr. in the nfl you play to your teams strength and the gb offense's strength is predicated on attacking downfield. sure theres going to be something of a philosphical shift without rodgers but this team isnt suddenly becoming the bears nor are they equipped to even if they wanted to. 

 

you dont win games by hiding your qb in todays nfl. hundley also has been in the system for multiple years and has always shown well in the preseason. hes going go likely play better after the bye. jones will be a big part of the offense but thinking theyre going to suddenly become a team thats wins with their d and run game isnt happening.

I guess it should also be said that I don't believe the Packers will win many games/remain competitive without Aarons Rodgers. Looking at the schedule it looks like the only games they have a chance to win are the bears, ravens and browns games.

As to Hundley looking good in the preseason, he should look good in one of the best offensive systems against vanilla defenses. He didn't look good last week maybe with the bye week he will come out and play better against the lions but who knows. If they want to win it will be on the back or the running game (Jones and Ty) not Brett Hundley because if they are relying on him to win games they will not win a single game the rest of this season.

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For those who own Jones in keeper leagues...what are the expectations for 2018 with a (presumably) healthy Rodgers? 

 

The question might seem too early to ask, but there is a trading deadline coming up in most leagues. And some teams are already trying to figure out how to set up for 2018 while others are trying to figure out how to make a playoff run this year.

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40 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

For those who own Jones in keeper leagues...what are the expectations for 2018 with a (presumably) healthy Rodgers? 

 

The question might seem too early to ask, but there is a trading deadline coming up in most leagues. And some teams are already trying to figure out how to set up for 2018 while others are trying to figure out how to make a playoff run this year.

Exactly the situation I'm in right now so I'm curious too what others think.  Have a solid offer for this year, but trying to weigh whether I wanna go for the title or hold Jones to see what he develops into.  Could make a nice 1-2-punch with Gurley if this kid is for real.  Who else is making plans for 2018?

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1 hour ago, RoboFroogs said:

Partially why I'm considering selling high on him even though I think he's really good. He's probably worth holding through the bye though.

But the schedule leading up to the playoffs is really juicy, and then when the playoffs start might have Aaron Rodgers back. Tough call.

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1 hour ago, Yceman1234 said:

Exactly the situation I'm in right now so I'm curious too what others think.  Have a solid offer for this year, but trying to weigh whether I wanna go for the title or hold Jones to see what he develops into.  Could make a nice 1-2-punch with Gurley if this kid is for real.  Who else is making plans for 2018?

Go for the title!

 

If someone is desperate for RB help, and you’re set at RB...

 

And, if they’re will to give up a WR1, do the trade.

 

You already have Gurley who is currently the #1 in PPR.

 

There is no way to know if Jones will be equivalent to a first round pick (next years draft)

by the time this years done.

 

 

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16 minutes ago, seanismorris said:

Go for the title!

 

If someone is desperate for RB help, and you’re set at RB...

 

And, if they’re will to give up a WR1, do the trade.

 

You already have Gurley who is currently the #1 in PPR.

 

There is no way to know if Jones will be equivalent to a first round pick (next years draft)

by the time this years done.

 

 

This is the boat I'm in... currently have Fournette and Ingram with DJ on IR and I have been shopping him all week.

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1 hour ago, Dirtywater97 said:

I look at him as a top 10 option in keeper leagues and considering the price most people paid for him that makes his value even more substantial. 

 

Top 10? Yowzers...that's bold. I can't go there with you. Because I picked him up as a FA in my keeper league, he has to be a 3rd round keeper in 2018, and I'm not yet convinced that he's a 3rd round value...I'm almost there but want to see more. 

 

If Jones does well the remainder of the season and emerges as the top RB in Green Bay, just add him to the list of RBs from this rookie class. How good is this class going to be once their all said-and-done? This could end up being an epic RB class...Fournette, Hunt, Cook, Mixon, Kamara, Jones, Foreman (once Miller is gone), Mack (once Gore retires), McCaffrey (I'm convinced he'll eventually become a WR). Not to mention guys like Carson, Conner and potentially Gallman and McGuire. Not all of these are going to hit, but I'm betting a large percentage of them do. 

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Us Jones owners just have to hope the packers put together some semblence of a passing game without Rodgers, or AJ will be the only threat defenses have to worry about. 

 

Fortunately Jones has upside as a pass catcher. Tough though when Ty Mont is kind of perfecly suited to be a pass catching back. 

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