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Aaron Jones 2017 Season Outlook


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1 minute ago, Flyman75 said:

 

Top 10? Yowzers...that's bold. I can't go there with you. Because I picked him up as a FA in my keeper league, he has to be a 3rd round keeper in 2018, and I'm not yet convinced that he's a 3rd round value...I'm almost there but want to see more. 

 

If Jones does well the remainder of the season and emerges as the top RB in Green Bay, just add him to the list of RBs from this rookie class. How good is this class going to be once their all said-and-done? This could end up being an epic RB class...Fournette, Hunt, Cook, Mixon, Kamara, Jones, Foreman (once Miller is gone), Mack (once Gore retires), McCaffrey (I'm convinced he'll eventually become a WR). Not to mention guys like Carson, Conner and potentially Gallman and McGuire. Not all of these are going to hit, but I'm betting a large percentage of them do. 

Top 10 maybe a little bullish but I definitely view him as a RB1 in keeper leagues. I'm also looking at this through the lens of Rodgers being back and the offense at full power next year. Top 10 this year? Definitely not. But that's pretty much because of Hundley. Most of the advanced metrics and stats from the likes of PFF and Football Outsiders are showing he's an elite talent up there with the likes of the upper echeleon RBs like Kareem Hunt and other top dogs in the NFL. 

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27 minutes ago, Joelioli said:

Us Jones owners just have to hope the packers put together some semblence of a passing game without Rodgers, or AJ will be the only threat defenses have to worry about. 

 

Fortunately Jones has upside as a pass catcher. Tough though when Ty Mont is kind of perfecly suited to be a pass catching back. 

 

Montgomery is actually perfectly suited to be a WR, which he was all of his career at Stanford and was drafted to be at GB. He is a useful emergency RB, imho, but otherwise needs to be a WR who is versatile enough to have a hybrid role. 

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The offense in GB is always going to flow though Aaron Rodgers.  My guess is maybe once since Rodgers arrived, has a GB RB finished in the top5.

 

It’s a big leap to assume Jones would be drafted in the 1st round next year, in a no Keeper PPR league.  Maybe your Dynasty league is that different...

 

Even in an optimistic scenario do you think Jones would go before:

Le’Veon Bell

Ezekiel Elliott

David Johnson

Kareem Hunt

Leonard Fournette 

Melvin Gordon 

Todd Gurley 

Devonta Freeman

LeSean McCoy

Christian McCaffrey 

Davon Cook

 

I can imagine Jones going before one or two, but I have not started listing WRs, TE, or QBs.  Top 10 would be pretty crazy.

 

If Jones does well he’s probably a 2nd or 3rd rounder.

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30 minutes ago, seanismorris said:

The offense in GB is always going to flow though Aaron Rodgers.  My guess is maybe once since Rodgers arrived, has a GB RB finished in the top5.

 

It’s a big leap to assume Jones would be drafted in the 1st round next year, in a no Keeper PPR league.  Maybe your Dynasty league is that different...

 

Even in an optimistic scenario do you think Jones would go before:

Le’Veon Bell

Ezekiel Elliott

David Johnson

Kareem Hunt

Leonard Fournette 

Melvin Gordon 

Todd Gurley 

Devonta Freeman

LeSean McCoy

Christian McCaffrey 

Davon Cook

 

I can imagine Jones going before one or two, but I have not started listing WRs, TE, or QBs.  Top 10 would be pretty crazy.

 

If Jones does well he’s probably a 2nd or 3rd rounder.

 When I originally said top 10 I was referring to RB only. I should of clarified my bad. I took that a bit further back by saying RB1. I'd say he's easily ahead of McCaffery and debatable on some others. Obviously it'll clarify once the sample size increases. Sure the offense has always run through Rodgers, but give me the superior offense, increased RZ opportunities, and easier fronts to run through every time. 

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1 minute ago, Anteater99 said:

TyMont would have visited those hospitals first but the packers o line was injured 

TyMont wanted to go inside too, but realized he was an outside guy masquerading as an inside guy, so he decided to stay out of AJ's way.

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6 minutes ago, HarambeLives said:

Upside ROS?

 

I'd guess Jones will get the bulk of work and be a solid RB2 rest of season, with more upside if Hundley learns how to pass a football.

 

Unfortunately for AJ, if Hundley continues to suck then Jones will face stacked lines and have a tough time with production. We should have a better idea after this week, the packers have had quite a bit of time to adjust their game plan. 

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Just now, Joelioli said:

 

I'd guess Jones will get the bulk of work and be a solid RB2 rest of season, with more upside if Hundley learns how to pass a football.

 

Unfortunately for AJ, if Hundley continues to suck then Jones will face stacked lines and have a tough time with production. We should have a better idea after this week, the packers have had quite a bit of time to adjust their game plan. 

 

I’m debating trading him so I’m just curious if his upside is really that high ROS. Hundley really needs to get it together. 

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On 10/31/2017 at 9:56 PM, HarambeLives said:

 

I’m debating trading him so I’m just curious if his upside is really that high ROS. Hundley really needs to get it together. 

 

If you can get a solid starter for him I'd probably do it.

 

I'd be surprised if they give him less volume going forward. There aren't that many RBs out there with good volume who can run well plus catch footballs so he has good upside in PPR leagues I'd say. 

Edited by phatrat
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I'm starting him this week, but I admit I feel a bit queasy about this game. He's been talked up too much by talking heads about having a big week. And McCarthy has had an extra week to break that which has been already fixed by emolying a split backfield with a healthy Ty Montgomery. Hope it's just my nerves and nothing else...

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1 hour ago, Newtown said:

I'm starting him this week, but I admit I feel a bit queasy about this game. He's been talked up too much by talking heads about having a big week. And McCarthy has had an extra week to break that which has been already fixed by emolying a split backfield with a healthy Ty Montgomery. Hope it's just my nerves and nothing else...

I think you are onto something. Jones is CBS' "Start of the Week", and he's projected for 11+ points on ESPN... 11.59 in Yahoo. 

My gut says he gets held in check for 5.3 fantasy points, and it's Davante Adams-- whom I'll be benching-- who has the biggest fantasy day for the Packers. 

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1 hour ago, Newtown said:

I'm starting him this week, but I admit I feel a bit queasy about this game. He's been talked up too much by talking heads about having a big week. And McCarthy has had an extra week to break that which has been already fixed by emolying a split backfield with a healthy Ty Montgomery. Hope it's just my nerves and nothing else...

 

19 minutes ago, ChicksDigTheOPS said:

I think you are onto something. Jones is CBS' "Start of the Week", and he's projected for 11+ points on ESPN... 11.59 in Yahoo. 

My gut says he gets held in check for 5.3 fantasy points, and it's Davante Adams-- whom I'll be benching-- who has the biggest fantasy day for the Packers. 

 

 

I also agree. I NEED him this week and every time its a game I can watch and the players SHOULD do well and is highlighted by the FF community as a player to start it's ALWAYS a disappointment. Argh. Hope AJ can Reverse The  Curse. 

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On 10/25/2017 at 2:24 PM, Flyman75 said:

 

Montgomery is actually perfectly suited to be a WR, which he was all of his career at Stanford and was drafted to be at GB. He is a useful emergency RB, imho, but otherwise needs to be a WR who is versatile enough to have a hybrid role. 

People forget that the only reason they put him there was because the Packers entire backfield got hurt. He thrived in the role in the short term but I never really thought he was going to all of a sudden be the permanent answer for us at RB. 

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6 minutes ago, Flyers_28 said:

i don't think that is correct they started giving him reps with the starters that week then ty and williams went down so they must have already been looking to give him a chance 

 

I'm pretty sure, given the context of my post he was responding to, he was talking about Montgomery. 

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1 hour ago, Newtown said:

I'm starting him this week, but I admit I feel a bit queasy about this game. He's been talked up too much by talking heads about having a big week.

How much he is hyped up by people in the media has no correlation to how he performs on sunday; to believe otherwise is superstition.

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36 minutes ago, Anteater99 said:

How much he is hyped up by people in the media has no correlation to how he performs on sunday; to believe otherwise is superstition.

 

I don't think anyone is suggesting that, per say. 

Moreso: it's a word of caution that maybe he isn't this surefire, locked-and-loaded stud RB like the fantasy community seems to be implying...

 

He has nice upside, and he's looked good, but he doesn't exactly have great pedigree, and I think a lot of the hype in this thread is premature. (I mean holy moly, a few comments above, he's being mentioned as a first rounder next year!)

Uhhh guys: Mark Ingram has been beasting for years, and still can barely sniff the 3rd round (ADP was late 4th round this season)

 

Especially with how bad Hundley has looked... what is stopping defenses from loading up the box the majority of the time? 

 

I say this as a happy Jones owner (dropped Jamaal Williams for him just in the nick of time... thank my lucky stars).

 

I like his prospects... but more as a solid RB2 with upside. Has Jones really shown us that much more than, say, Orleans Darkwa? 

 

 

Edited by ChicksDigTheOPS
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14 minutes ago, ChicksDigTheOPS said:

 

I don't think anyone is suggesting that, per say. 

Moreso: it's a word of caution that maybe he isn't this surefire, locked-and-loaded stud RB like the fantasy community seems to be implying...

 

He has nice upside, and he's looked good, but he doesn't exactly have great pedigree, and I think a lot of the hype in this thread is premature. (I mean holy moly, a few comments above, he's being mentioned as a first rounder next year!)

Uhhh guys: Mark Ingram has been beasting for years, and still can barely sniff the 3rd round (ADP was late 4th round this season)

 

Especially with how bad Hundley has looked... what is stopping defenses from loading up the box the majority of the time? 

 

I say this as a happy Jones owner (dropped Jamaal Williams for him just in the nick of time... thank my lucky stars).

 

I like his prospects... but more as a solid RB2 with upside. Has Jones really shown us that much more than, say, Orleans Darkwa? 

 

 

If you are referring to my statement of top 10 I was referring to running backs only and not top 10 overall as some took it. Should of clarified on that.

 

All metrics and advanced data have this guy up there as good as Kareem Hunt and better in some categories even. In keeper leagues on this offense with all the RZ opportunities I don't think it's that outlandish at all. He will probably be a draft day steal next year because of Hundley. 

 

This year of course he's got risk considering Hundley has shown next to nothing so far, and the sample size is still relatively small. 

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21 minutes ago, ChicksDigTheOPS said:

 

I don't think anyone is suggesting that, per say. 

Moreso: it's a word of caution that maybe he isn't this surefire, locked-and-loaded stud RB like the fantasy community seems to be implying...

 

He has nice upside, and he's looked good, but he doesn't exactly have great pedigree, and I think a lot of the hype in this thread is premature. (I mean holy moly, a few comments above, he's being mentioned as a first rounder next year!)

Uhhh guys: Mark Ingram has been beasting for years, and still can barely sniff the 3rd round (ADP was late 4th round this season)

 

 

 

 

Hundley looked bad in one game against a good pass defense. Let's see if he progresses at all over the second half. 

 

I think the first rd talk was speculative about his potential IF he continues to play at a high level, considering he'll get Rodgers back as his starting QB. 

 

As far as Ingram, I wouldn't say he's been beasting. He's had one season with more than 6 rushing TD...one season with double-digit total TD...one season with more than 1,000 rushing yards and none with more than 1,050...one season with more than 1,200 total yards. He was a solid backend RB1 last year, but he hasn't been beasting for years. Personally, I believe Jones has the potential to be more than Ingram has been to this point...just depends on opportunity and whether or not he grabs it. 

Edited by Flyman75
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9 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

As far as Ingram, I wouldn't say he's been beasting. He's had one season with more than 6 rushing TD...one season with double-digit total TD...one season with more than 1,000 rushing yards and none with more than 1,050...one season with more than 1,200 total yards. He was a solid backend RB1 last year, but he hasn't been beasting for years.

 

1000+ total yard plus 8 TD's per year between 2014-2016 (and that's while playing only 13 games in 2014, and 12 games in 2015)

Don't get me wrong, folks: I like Jones. Hard to find a great player comp... maybe a hybrid of Ameer Abdullah and Ezekiel Elliott, with a splash of Doug Martin?? 

Edited by ChicksDigTheOPS
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1 hour ago, Anteater99 said:

How much he is hyped up by people in the media has no correlation to how he performs on sunday; to believe otherwise is superstition.

 

I agree and maybe I am being superstitious. I guess I have been burned too much this season by hyped up and must-start players seemingly every week. Time will tell on this one.

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