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2017 Rotoworld Mock Real League


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I'm 32. 

It's 90 degrees here in Western MA, and trust me, I'd much prefer the dry heat of southern Cali than this swamp a** weather.

 

Source: Visited grandparents in Hemet/Palm Springs a few years back. Love Cali weather.

Edited by mrblonde1984
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Just now, mrblonde1984 said:

I'm 32. 

It's 90 degrees here in Western MA, and trust me, I'd much prefer the dry heat if southern Cali than this swamp a** weather.

 

There's nothing better than the socal dry heat. 75 and sunny every day. 

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2 minutes ago, boltup15 said:

 

There's nothing better than the socal dry heat. 75 and sunny every day. 

 

I never understood the draw of California. Then I visited and was like yup, I totally get it now.

 

Just don't drink the tap water.

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Just now, mrblonde1984 said:

 

I never understood the draw of California. Then I visited and was like yup, I totally get it now.

 

Just don't drink the tap water.

 

California can get boring though. It's the only drawback. 

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46 minutes ago, predator_05 said:

 

I'm in jersey, and i commute to NYC. you should see the PATH train stations here. So crowded, you can't even move.

 

We have too many yuppies living here.

 

 

The PATH is cross honoring the Morris-Essex NJT line, so it's more crowded than normal.

 

On the plus side, if you buy a Morris-Essex monthly train ticket to Hoboken ($100ish in July and Aug) you can ride the PATH, Ferry or Buses for free.  The ferry to midtown beats the hell out of the path (It's normally like $465 a month.)

 

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34 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

Spencer Ware... by the time he loses his job, I'll figure something else out.

 

I am curious... when you guys say it's 'hot' in your state, what type of temps are we talking?

 

This is exactly the analysis I was telling myself when I was considering him.

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4 minutes ago, DocJ said:

 

This is exactly the analysis I was telling myself when I was considering him.

 

I was proud of us when Kareem Hunt went before Ware in this league.

 

It's like everyone looked at Ware's ADP and said "Nope, that's Bull****"

 

Edited by Iron-cock
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I'm 23(does that make me the youngest?) and will turn 24 in a few weeks. I'm in Texas and its currently 93. My app says it feels like 101. A few years ago it reached 100+ like 60 days in a row. I remember driving home at midnight and it would still be 95+. 

 

 

Anyway, draft analysis:

AJ Green: I don't know. See proteus' analysis. 

 

Jordan Howard: I was still out of the loop. Proteus gave me the option of Gronk, Howard and Dez. I had them ranked in that order. Gronk has amazing upside but is kind of the definition of injury prone. Howard is on a s---y team. But I think Dez's ceiling is limited with that offense. Zeke will get a heavy load and chew up the clock. 

 

Isaiah Crowell: I put my big boy helmet on and made this pick. He's also on a s---y team but I've always liked him. Proteus suggested I take Joe Mixon but I didn't. 

 

Joe Mixon: Proteus got his wish. 

 

Kelvin Benjamin: He came off an ACL tear and Cam wasn't that great last season. I fully expect Benjamin to match and probably pass last years numbers. 

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2 minutes ago, Ryan81 said:

I'm 23(does that make me the youngest?) and will turn 24 in a few weeks. I'm in Texas and its currently 93. My app says it feels like 101. A few years ago it reached 100+ like 60 days in a row. I remember driving home at midnight and it would still be 95+. 

 

 

Anyway, draft analysis:

AJ Green: I don't know. See proteus' analysis. 

 

Jordan Howard: I was still out of the loop. Proteus gave me the option of Gronk, Howard and Dez. I had them ranked in that order. Gronk has amazing upside but is kind of the definition of injury prone. Howard is on a s---y team. But I think Dez's ceiling is limited with that offense. Zeke will get a heavy load and chew up the clock. 

 

Isaiah Crowell: I put my big boy helmet on and made this pick. He's also on a s---y team but I've always liked him. Proteus suggested I take Joe Mixon but I didn't. 

 

Joe Mixon: Proteus got his wish. 

 

Kelvin Benjamin: He came off an ACL tear and Cam wasn't that great last season. I fully expect Benjamin to match and probably pass last years numbers. 

 

I turn 24 in a couple months. I'm a little younger. 

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I'll be 29 August 11th.  I'm in NorCal but I'm a couple hours inland from the coast so it's been about 90-112 over the last several weeks.  

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5.13 - The pick I have been dying to get. He's my #14 RB and is going as the RB 29 in this draft.

 

Tevin Coleman 

 

Super+Bowl+LI+New+England+Patriots+v+Atl

 

 

@Winky - OTC

 

I'll give more insight after my next pick.

Edited by boltup15
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5.14 Paul Perkins - There's a little more to Perkins than most people think... the additions the Giants made on offense should  prevent the box from being full and he was able to average over 4ypc last season...

 

6.1   Derrick Henry - never really cuff my starters, but Henry is the best cuff in the league and Murray can get his dings here and there... the Tenn OLine is fantastic, so spending the #71 pick seems reasonable price for this insurance policy... he would not have gotten back to me. 

 

P.S. Not pushing 60 and it was close to 90 here today (just north of NYC)

 

@boltup15 - OTC

@Dislimb - OTC2

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1 hour ago, Ryan81 said:

Kelvin Benjamin: He came off an ACL tear and Cam wasn't that great last season. I fully expect Benjamin to match and probably pass last years numbers. 

 

Well he's already passed one number from last year...his weight. 

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8 hours ago, mrblonde1984 said:

Let's play another game.

Player A played in 15 games in 2016. He finished as an RB1 four times. He finished as an RB2 five times. His ceiling was RB5, and his floor was RB40. 

Player B played 15 games in 2016. He finished as an RB1 three times. He finished as an RB2 five times. His ceiling was RB4, and his floor was RB52.

 

Which player would you rather have? What if I told you, that despite fewer RB1 finishes, the same amount of RB2 finishes, a slightly higher ceiling but a much lower floor, Player B was going 25 picks earlier than Player A? Which would you want then?

 

For those wondering, Player B is Lamar Miller (the RB FFC just HAD to have because there couldn't possibly be anyone comparable in the later rounds) and Player A is LeGarrette Blount, who has an ADP of late fourth, early fifth round (according to Fantasy Football Calculator).

 

I'm posting this because FFC decided to use SEASON END stats to justify his Miller pick, which is fine, but then decided that Doug Baldwin, who's SEASON END finish was WR6 (Weeks 1-15), needed to be dissected on a week-to-week basis.

 

If you want to use week to week points as your argument for or against picks, be my guest. But you can't have it both ways.

 

On a side not, stats are great. They can tell us a lot. But stats in a vacuum are useless. Doug Baldwin may have been inconsistent last season compared to his big 2015. But why could that have been? Could it have had anything to do with Russell Wilson suffering a high-ankle sprain in Week 1 of 2016, and just 2 weeks later, spraining his MCL?

 

What I do know that is Doug Baldwin will likely lead the Seahawks in targets, receptions and yards. I do know that Seattle had one of the worst offensive lines last season, and I'm not sure they've done enough to fix that. Will the run game be better? My guess is, yes, a little. But anyone who watches Seattle knows that Baldwin is a key piece of the offense, operating from the slot, and catches the ball better than most.

 

Could I get similar numbers from Djax later in the draft? Possibly. But Djax offers unknowns too. Djax's stats from 2016 have nothing to do with what he'll do in 2017. He has a new quarterback and a new scheme to get used to, and oh by the way, some guy named Mike Evans to compete with for targets. 

 

There's more to fantasy football than spreadsheets

 

Well this is a rather pathetic response, don't you think?

Your entire thesis is a comparison of ADPs on Blount vs Miller, where Miller just had the worst year of his career as a starter, and Blount had the best year of his career period, with absolutely no mention of the fact that Blount no longer even plays for the team that is entirely responsible for said stat line?  Sure, your argument will be 'but D.Jax doesn't play for the same team either!' and you are right.  The difference here, is that D.Jax's skillset, ability, and production, is universal to any team he's been on or goes to, assuming the QB can make use of said skill. Whereas no one in their right mind, would say Blount can go to any team and replicate what he just did on the Patriots.

 

I'd love to take you at your word on the stats above, but you don't even know how many games L.Miller played last year, so I figured I better do them myself.

Miller played 14 games in the regular season, 16 if you count post season, how you came up with 15 is beyond me, good thing we don't let you touch the spreadsheets.
Top 12: 3 (21%)

Top 24: 9 (64%)

Top 36: 12 (80%)

Top 48: 13 (93%)

49+: 1 (7%)

 

A reminder of Baldwin's stats, since it's pages back now:

Top 12: 4 (25%)

Top 24: 6 (37%)

Top 36: 9 (56%)

Top 48: 10 (62%)

49+: 4 (25%)

 

L.Miller finished inside the top 24, more often than Baldwin finished inside the top 48.

If you think my analysis of Miller was 'year end results' simply because I didn't dive into his weekly games, or because I happened to mention his year end totals for perspective, or extrapolated results for the same reason, you are highly mistaken.  I usually default to adding those, so that the other 99.9% of the league will know what I'm talking about without needing a calculator in hand.  The only per-game rushing number anyone knows, is one I bring up all the time, and it's 62.5, but even in this thread, again without a calculator or context, I wonder how many of you know what it represents off the top of your head.  Miller had a few bad games, but his production is spread out over the entire season, not just 4 games like Baldwin.  Miller had 4 games over 100 yards, which is more than Baldwin had.  Take your pick of arbitrary numbers, Miller failed to reach 50 yards rushing just twice last year.  Failed to reach 62.5 only 5 times.  Was 80+ 8 times, and that's without even accounting for reception yardage, which I won't bother.  Again, keeping in mind for this comparison, Baldwin just had his statistical best season, outside of TDs, and Miller had his worst as a starter, on a new team.  Take that a step further, there are 12 WRs who had 1100+ yards, and 23 who had 1000+, whereas for a RB there are only 12 who broke the 1k mark, and Miller did it on less games.  So when discussing these 2 players, even when thinking forward of how far each one could improve next year with better circumstances... Miller seems so much more valuable to me as of today, given the fact their ADPs are right next to each other.

 

Lastly... context.  I tried to make it very clear this was a copy/paste of stats from another thread, perhaps you missed that.  Also, I'm not going to copy the entire thread into this thread, just the stats I shared.  A lot of your complaints about 'vacuum' were addressed in the other thread and had no worth to this thread.  Most importantly though, how hypocritical are you being right now?  You're up here crying about stats without context, when you're the one who shared... wait for it... stats without context.  All I did was counter those stats, and give some counter stats.  Nowhere in my post did I argue Baldwin's value, price, investment, production, or whatever else you're all twisted up about.  I can find stats that reflect poorly on any player, that doesn't mean they're a bad pick.

 

It all boils down to the origination of the initial discussion.  joshua had just got done wiping him mouth from the Baldwin thread, and posted something about how D.Jax is boom/bust and useless half the time.  I simply offered some perspective on how boom/bust Baldwin was last year, (since he just praised his '16 season), and showed that he too, was useless about half the time last year.  That is not an analysis of 2017 by any means, it was no more than a counter argument to someone else's statement that I found hypocritical.

 

As far as attempting to make this post useful, Baldwin, among others, poses an interesting question I've been trying to answer, or more accurately quantify, for about 2 years now.  If you could draft 'wins' what round would you pay, and for how many?  In regards to Baldwin, I'd say his 4 games last year were almost guaranteed wins.  With the knowledge that it usually takes 8 wins to make the playoffs... if Baldwin was worth 4, what would I pay?  Obviously this ignores the games he gave you a loss, and the logic applies to any player with that potential, but I'm unsure how to measure it or compare it across players and positions.  Just an idea, that maybe someone has some insight into.

 

My so called focus on spreadsheets and stats hasn't prevented me from being successful in fantasy football.  I do not win every league I'm in, nor do any of you.  I do not lose every league I'm in and I highly doubt any of you do either.  So, even if we pretend I use nothing else to analyze the game we play, you'd have to find me some correlation between 'watching games' and 'winning'.  Given the migration and demand of Fantasy Football 'next level stat' sites, metrics, etc... I'm actually inclined to disagree with you about which is more important, but wouldn't ever bother making that argument.  Watching games is enjoyable, so I'll continue to do it, but when we get down to it, watching games helps you evaluate talent, potentially situations.  Crunching statistics help you evaluate production.  The best talent evaluators in the world, get it wrong regularly.  Even if they're right about the talent, it doesn't always translate to production.  The inverse is also true, untalented players (with respect to the fact they're in the NFL) are productive and successful in this game all the time.  I think you would be hard pressed to find any hard data that corresponds to your claim.  We could take it one step further, and bring DFS into the equation, and we all know that the stat-based players are winning more often.  Not always, but considerably more often.  It is not their football IQ, or talent evaluation that's helping them win tournaments.  It's a mathematical equation and arguably a manipulation of odds that puts them where they need to be most often.  The fact that they are winning with bad players who blow up, rather than talented studs would further emphasize the focus on statistical analysis over player evaluation.

 

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5.13 - Tevin Coleman

 

Coleman should not have lasted this long. In a half point ppr league he does the two things you want most, catch balls and score TD's. Sure he may be in line for TD regression, but is he? He's in a high powered offense and was logging 40+% of the snaps in ATL. As long as he's getting those snaps, he will get receptions and red zone opportunities and provide that high ceiling type of scoring in my lineup that can help me win a week or two. Add in the fact that if anything were to happen to Freeman, Coleman would be an elite RB1. Rather than looking for consistency, I went boom.

 

Now, why RB2 this late. Well, I was actually planning on waiting on RB even longer. But, I went with Coleman here because there were a couple WR's that I liked after the turn that I knew would still be there. Jamison Crowder being on of the two or three.  

 

6.02 - Jamison Crowder

 

Jamison Crowder was a tough pick for me because there were still some top end WR's that I liked on this board. However Crowder will be lining up in two WR sets with Pryor AND will be out targeting Pryor by at least 20 targets. He had 7 TD's last season and figures to have around the same as he should be used on punt returns still and get a 100% target share in the Redskins offense. Crowder could be the type of guy that gets 135 targets and 100 receptions. I would rather have Crowder than Pryor on all of my teams.

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1 minute ago, FFCollusion said:

I'd love to take you at your word on the stats above, but you don't even know how many games L.Miller played last year, so I figured I better do them myself.

Miller played 14 games in the regular season, 16 if you count post season, how you came up with 15 is beyond me, good thing we don't let you touch the spreadsheets.
Top 12: 3 (21%)

Top 24: 9 (64%)

Top 36: 12 (80%)

Top 48: 13 (93%)

49+: 1 (7%)

 

A reminder of Baldwin's stats, since it's pages back now:

Top 12: 4 (25%)

Top 24: 6 (37%)

Top 36: 9 (56%)

Top 48: 10 (62%)

49+: 4 (25%)

 

Finishing in the top 24 as an RB when you are getting 20 touches a game should happen at least 80% of the time... I think finishing in the top 12 as an RB is comparative to finishing in the top 24 or even top 36 for a WR. I'd be more interested in seeing how often Lamar Miller or Doug Baldwin outscored one another.. 

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