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4 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

 

Well this is a rather pathetic response, don't you think?

Your entire thesis is a comparison of ADPs on Blount vs Miller, where Miller just had the worst year of his career as a starter, and Blount had the best year of his career period, with absolutely no mention of the fact that Blount no longer even plays for the team that is entirely responsible for said stat line?  Sure, your argument will be 'but D.Jax doesn't play for the same team either!' and you are right.  The difference here, is that D.Jax's skillset, ability, and production, is universal to any team he's been on or goes to, assuming the QB can make use of said skill. Whereas no one in their right mind, would say Blount can go to any team and replicate what he just did on the Patriots.

 

I'd love to take you at your word on the stats above, but you don't even know how many games L.Miller played last year, so I figured I better do them myself.

Miller played 14 games in the regular season, 16 if you count post season, how you came up with 15 is beyond me, good thing we don't let you touch the spreadsheets.
Top 12: 3 (21%)

Top 24: 9 (64%)

Top 36: 12 (80%)

Top 48: 13 (93%)

49+: 1 (7%)

 

A reminder of Baldwin's stats, since it's pages back now:

Top 12: 4 (25%)

Top 24: 6 (37%)

Top 36: 9 (56%)

Top 48: 10 (62%)

49+: 4 (25%)

 

L.Miller finished inside the top 24, more often than Baldwin finished inside the top 48.

If you think my analysis of Miller was 'year end results' simply because I didn't dive into his weekly games, or because I happened to mention his year end totals for perspective, or extrapolated results for the same reason, you are highly mistaken.  I usually default to adding those, so that the other 99.9% of the league will know what I'm talking about without needing a calculator in hand.  The only per-game rushing number anyone knows, is one I bring up all the time, and it's 62.5, but even in this thread, again without a calculator or context, I wonder how many of you know what it represents off the top of your head.  Miller had a few bad games, but his production is spread out over the entire season, not just 4 games like Baldwin.  Miller had 4 games over 100 yards, which is more than Baldwin had.  Take your pick of arbitrary numbers, Miller failed to reach 50 yards rushing just twice last year.  Failed to reach 62.5 only 5 times.  Was 80+ 8 times, and that's without even accounting for reception yardage, which I won't bother.  Again, keeping in mind for this comparison, Baldwin just had his statistical best season, outside of TDs, and Miller had his worst as a starter, on a new team.  Take that a step further, there are 12 WRs who had 1100+ yards, and 23 who had 1000+, whereas for a RB there are only 12 who broke the 1k mark, and Miller did it on less games.  So when discussing these 2 players, even when thinking forward of how far each one could improve next year with better circumstances... Miller seems so much more valuable to me as of today, given the fact their ADPs are right next to each other.

 

Lastly... context.  I tried to make it very clear this was a copy/paste of stats from another thread, perhaps you missed that.  Also, I'm not going to copy the entire thread into this thread, just the stats I shared.  A lot of your complaints about 'vacuum' were addressed in the other thread and had no worth to this thread.  Most importantly though, how hypocritical are you being right now?  You're up here crying about stats without context, when you're the one who shared... wait for it... stats without context.  All I did was counter those stats, and give some counter stats.  Nowhere in my post did I argue Baldwin's value, price, investment, production, or whatever else you're all twisted up about.  I can find stats that reflect poorly on any player, that doesn't mean they're a bad pick.

 

It all boils down to the origination of the initial discussion.  joshua had just got done wiping him mouth from the Baldwin thread, and posted something about how D.Jax is boom/bust and useless half the time.  I simply offered some perspective on how boom/bust Baldwin was last year, (since he just praised his '16 season), and showed that he too, was useless about half the time last year.  That is not an analysis of 2017 by any means, it was no more than a counter argument to someone else's statement that I found hypocritical.

 

As far as attempting to make this post useful, Baldwin, among others, poses an interesting question I've been trying to answer, or more accurately quantify, for about 2 years now.  If you could draft 'wins' what round would you pay, and for how many?  In regards to Baldwin, I'd say his 4 games last year were almost guaranteed wins.  With the knowledge that it usually takes 8 wins to make the playoffs... if Baldwin was worth 4, what would I pay?  Obviously this ignores the games he gave you a loss, and the logic applies to any player with that potential, but I'm unsure how to measure it or compare it across players and positions.  Just an idea, that maybe someone has some insight into.

 

My so called focus on spreadsheets and stats hasn't prevented me from being successful in fantasy football.  I do not win every league I'm in, nor do any of you.  I do not lose every league I'm in and I highly doubt any of you do either.  So, even if we pretend I use nothing else to analyze the game we play, you'd have to find me some correlation between 'watching games' and 'winning'.  Given the migration and demand of Fantasy Football 'next level stat' sites, metrics, etc... I'm actually inclined to disagree with you about which is more important, but wouldn't ever bother making that argument.  Watching games is enjoyable, so I'll continue to do it, but when we get down to it, watching games helps you evaluate talent, potentially situations.  Crunching statistics help you evaluate production.  The best talent evaluators in the world, get it wrong regularly.  Even if they're right about the talent, it doesn't always translate to production.  The inverse is also true, untalented players (with respect to the fact they're in the NFL) are productive and successful in this game all the time.  I think you would be hard pressed to find any hard data that corresponds to your claim.  We could take it one step further, and bring DFS into the equation, and we all know that the stat-based players are winning more often.  Not always, but considerably more often.  It is not their football IQ, or talent evaluation that's helping them win tournaments.  It's a mathematical equation and arguably a manipulation of odds that puts them where they need to be most often.  The fact that they are winning with bad players who blow up, rather than talented studs would further emphasize the focus on statistical analysis over player evaluation.

 

 

 

Edit: Nevermind.

 

Edited by mrblonde1984
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1 minute ago, mrblonde1984 said:

I didn't include Week 17 for either player in my comparison, BTW. You know, because it's an irrelevant week. Not that hard to figure out. But I understand common sense can escape you cerebral types sometimes. 

 

Miller didn't play week 17 anyways... guess again!

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22 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

  We could take it one step further, and bring DFS into the equation, and we all know that the stat-based players are winning more often.  Not always, but considerably more often.  It is not their football IQ, or talent evaluation that's helping them win tournaments.  It's a mathematical equation and arguably a manipulation of odds that puts them where they need to be most often.

 

 

Who is winning at DFS football without watching games?

 

Football IQ and talent evaluation helps them build something to improve their odds.

 

 

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I probably have about 30 minutes left in me since apparently I'm the old man around here and can't stay up any later. I could definitely leave a couple pics with someone if it comes to that.

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2 minutes ago, boltup15 said:

 

Oh the good ol ypc comment.... never gets old. 

 

Hey, at his career YPA if they give him 300 carries he can get to 1110 yards.

 

Look at it this way, if he sucks maybe Keenan will catch more passes.  If Keenan sucks, maybe they'll run Gordon more.  If they both suck, you are S.O.L.

 

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6 minutes ago, Iron-cock said:

 

Hey, at his career YPA if they give him 300 carries he can get to 1110 yards.

 

Look at it this way, if he sucks maybe Keenan will catch more passes.  If Keenan sucks, maybe they'll run Gordon more.  If they both suck, you are S.O.L.

 

 

I'm more interested in how many targets, receptions, and TD's Gordon can get. Ypc at the end of the season when you're getting 250-300 touches doesn't make a whole lot of a difference. But those receptions and half point per receptions that really help you out. It's not like Branden Oliver is going to take his job. 

Edited by boltup15
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43 minutes ago, boltup15 said:

5.13 - Tevin Coleman

 

Coleman should not have lasted this long. In a half point ppr league he does the two things you want most, catch balls and score TD's. Sure he may be in line for TD regression, but is he? He's in a high powered offense and was logging 40+% of the snaps in ATL. As long as he's getting those snaps, he will get receptions and red zone opportunities and provide that high ceiling type of scoring in my lineup that can help me win a week or two. Add in the fact that if anything were to happen to Freeman, Coleman would be an elite RB1. Rather than looking for consistency, I went boom.

 

Now, why RB2 this late. Well, I was actually planning on waiting on RB even longer. But, I went with Coleman here because there were a couple WR's that I liked after the turn that I knew would still be there. Jamison Crowder being on of the two or three. 

 

Not that it matters, but he only played about 45% of snaps on most weeks. Most of those were in favorable situations, but still worth mentioning for the sake of comparison.

 

I considered Coleman, but the biggest factor here is the playcalling. Shanahan is now in San Francisco, and Coleman was his guy. Shanahan knew how to utilize Coleman's speed and versatility; he brought the best out of him, even in a limited role. Whether the new OC can get the same results remains to be seen. I wouldn't go as far as to assume that Coleman's usage will be what it was last year, especially when we have guys around the same ADP range with clearly defined roles on their respective offenses.

 

With that said, before pre-season, Coleman is relatively overrated. Hopefully we get a better idea of his usage in the practice games. 

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3.10 Carlos Hyde

11th best back in PPG last season on arguably the worst team in the league.

I don't buy the rookie stealing his job.

Even if I did buy that, Shannahan found plenty of production from both Freeman and Coleman, granted SF is not even in the same stratosphere as ATL, but whatever.  Health is a legit risk, but I think SF did well in their draft, Garcon is adequate in the passing game to help the offense overall, hopefully the workload is there.

 

4.04 Jarvis Landry

Every year it's the same thing.  He hovers right at the WR12 mark on the year, with 100 catches, 1100 yards, and then next year... 4th round pick.

He gets no respect because he doesn't score TDs, I get it.  But Landry had more targets, same amount of catches, and more receiving yards than @mrblonde1984, oops I mean Doug Baldwin.  They were separated by just 13 points last year in favor of Baldwin and 0.9 points last year, again in favor of Baldwin, for a 2 year advantage of 13.9 points.  Only caveat is that Landry is 19 picks cheaper in this draft.  My stats are PPR based, I don't adjust for this league, so the gap would be slightly larger in favor of Baldwin in 2015, but remains unchanged for '16, as they both hauled in 96.

 

When I read the forums, there is a sense of doom and gloom, because Ajayi took over the show, but even with that being the case, Landry was the 8th best WR over the final 5 games, and had over 100 yards receiving in 3 of the last 5 games he played when including post season.  Ajayi took over in... week6?  From Week 6-17 Landry falls a bit, down to 15th among WRs.  Reminder, that would be a bit further in .5ppr, but regardless as the 22nd WR off the board, it feels like a steal.  I'm not particularly interested in owning 2 skill players from the same team, and that is magnified in a bigger league, and even further magnified the closer the scoring gets to standard.  The bigger the league and the less points total, the more dominant TDs become in a matchup.  Having 2 players on the same team, means every drive ends with a maximum of 1 TD.  Not everyone buys into this, I obviously don't alter my pick to avoid it, but I do think there is some merit.  Counter thought is that you have better odds of every drive ending in a TD to your player(s) I guess.  Thus high floor/low ceiling vs high ceiling.low floor mentalities.

 

5.10 Spencer Ware

This was a pure value pick, and just another ding against snakes for me.  In an auction I wouldn't even look at this guy, but in a snake it's hard to pass on a guy whose ADP was over 2 rounds ago.  KC doesn't excite me, Ware doesn't excite me, the rookie adds a potential job security issue, or platoon.  Had any of my targets made it to me, I wouldn't have even considered him, but since I was only looking at players I didn't want to own, I took the best value, at the scarcest position.  I considered K.Benjamin, but given his past inconsistencies, compounded with the 2 rookie additions to the offense, I just didn't think he provided a production I couldn't potentially find later.

 

6.04 Matt Forte

I feel the same way I did last year.  Forte was BEAST at times last year, I do not think it's a talent/age/skill issue.  The offense is horrendous, I still don't like Powell, but I understand he's there.  I do think there's a chance Forte is the 2nd best receiver on the Jets this year.

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1 minute ago, FFCollusion said:

4.04 Jarvis Landry

Every year it's the same thing.  He hovers right at the WR12 mark on the year, with 100 catches, 1100 yards, and then next year... 4th round pick.

He gets no respect because he doesn't score TDs, I get it.  But Landry had more targets, same amount of catches, and more receiving yards than @mrblonde1984, oops I mean Doug Baldwin.  They were separated by just 13 points last year in favor of Baldwin and 0.9 points last year, again in favor of Baldwin, for a 2 year advantage of 13.9 points.  Only caveat is that Landry is 19 picks cheaper in this draft.  My stats are PPR based, I don't adjust for this league, so the gap would be slightly larger in favor of Baldwin in 2015, but remains unchanged for '16, as they both hauled in 96.

 

Go Tannehill, Julius, Stills and Parker!

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20 minutes ago, boltup15 said:

 

I'm more interested in how many targets, receptions, and TD's Gordon can get. Ypc at the end of the season when you're getting 250-300 touches doesn't make a whole lot of a difference. But those receptions and half point per receptions that really help you out. It's not like Branden Oliver is going to take his job. 

 

I agree the lack of competition makes him a  more compelling pick.  The difference between 4 and 5 YPC on 300 carries with our settings is 30 points.  You'd need 60 catches to make that up.  It can make a huge difference.  Five is a very high ypc for a RB getting a major workload, only Jordan Howard and Zeke pulled it off last season, but I'm just using it as an example.

 

YPC isn't always on the player, it falls on the line too.  The Chargers line might be better this season which helps his case too.  I do think he's a bit overvalued since he's basically a volume play until we see more in the preseason.

Edited by Iron-cock
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8 minutes ago, predator_05 said:

I considered Coleman, but the biggest factor here is the playcalling. Shanahan is now in San Francisco, and Coleman was his guy.

 

I'm pretty sure Freeman was his guy and Coleman was basically in the Riddick + role. Cop back that also gets some goal line carries and is used extensively in the red zone. 

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8 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

6.04 Matt Forte

I feel the same way I did last year.  Forte was BEAST at times last year, I do not think it's a talent/age/skill issue.  The offense is horrendous, I still don't like Powell, but I understand he's there.  I do think there's a chance Forte is the 2nd best receiver on the Jets this year.

 

Solid pick. Forte > Powell. 

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