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Jamaal Williams 2017 Outlook


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53 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

IF the run game hits a rough patch, and IF Williams gets a crack at starting, and IF his touches correlates with a better run game.... THEN TyMont will lose work.

 

Basically if Williams is better than TyMont then TyMont will lose work.  Well, yeah.  But Montgomery is a good runner who offers a 2nd dimension that fits perfectly with what GB wants to do.  We're stretching to find things to worry about, I think.

 

Maybe Williams is better.  We'll learn more in preseason, I'm sure.  I doubt it at this time.

 

We haven't heard anything yet about how TyMont is doing in pass pro so far this preseason.  We know he worked with some experts on it and is committed to it.  But it's all conjecture until we see live action.

 

I think it's more of "If TyMont's pass protection hasn't improved, he won't be playing starting running back level snap counts"

 

TyMont's ADP is currently 32, Williams is 121.  I think Williams is the better bet at this point.

 

 

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16 minutes ago, Iron-cock said:

TyMont's ADP is currently 32, Williams is 121.  I think Williams is the better bet at this point.

 

Not saying that Williams isn't worth owning.  He does present good value, and I'll have him on some teams.

 

Not saying TyMont's ADP isn't a little too high for comfort at this point.  He's never been a full time RB.

 

I'm saying that ADP and value aside -- just talking real football and not fantasy -- it is highly unlikely unless in the event of an injury that Jamaal Williams displaces Ty Montgomery as the starter.  Because it's a hell of a lot easier to learn how to pass protect than it is to learn how to be an effective dual threat RB at 6'0" 220lb.

 

Again, Williams is a worthwhile gamble because at his price and given his pass pro abilities, he's got an outside chance to take the job.  Cheap enough lotto ticket with sky high upside.

 

But it's an outside chance.  Most likely scenario is that TyMont delivers on his ADP as a true dual threat.  

 

I'm only passionate about this because it seems that irrational fear is pushing people away from a great investment -- fear that a rookie will displace a great talent who's in a perfect situation.  The ADP can be too high for comfort, but I hope we can put the discomfort aside.

 

Give this article a read:

 

http://rotoviz.com/2017/08/forecasting-for-fantasy-football-success/?hvid=3oVes9&utm_content=buffer461ed&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Edited by Lord_Varys
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2 hours ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

IF the run game hits a rough patch, and IF Williams gets a crack at starting, and IF his touches correlates with a better run game.... THEN TyMont will lose work.

 

Basically if Williams is better than TyMont then TyMont will lose work.  Well, yeah.  But Montgomery is a good runner who offers a 2nd dimension that fits perfectly with what GB wants to do.  We're stretching to find things to worry about, I think.

 

Maybe Williams is better.  We'll learn more in preseason, I'm sure.  I doubt it at this time.

 

We haven't heard anything yet about how TyMont is doing in pass pro so far this preseason.  We know he worked with some experts on it and is committed to it.  But it's all conjecture until we see live action.

 

Surprised you're already sold that a

guy who has never played the position is already a "good runner," however we're defining that phrase.  Of course that is what we'll hear from the CS and Ty's teammates . . . until we don't.  No one should expect anything different.  Also, if your eye test tells you already that Ty has somehow been miscast as a WR so far throughout his career to date, and that folks have finally discovered that he was a high level NFL caliber RB all along, then thst is entirely ok.  I am a firm believer in trusting one's own eye test even if others see something different.  We all have to respect that.

 

All that said though, I really don't believe that PS will do much to dispel the issue I raised.  Even if Ty shows well in the limited action he will get, the potential lack of "goodwill" because he is "new" to the position will affect his role and usage at the first sign of trouble in the run game.  Further, I will wager that GB will experience trouble in the run game sooner or later.  Most teams do, especially a traditionally pass-first squad without a dominant O-line.  And the 2nd "if" you reference is an easy one too.  From all the data we have so far, Williams will be the guy McCarthy and company will turn to.  So to my mind, the only uncertainty to this whole future scenario is how Williams will do when the time of doubt surrounding Ty inevitably comes.  I don't want my 3rd round investment riding on the chance that Williams gets to audition against a cup cake run D on GB's schedule or, worse yet, just looks better than Ty doing the things GB wants from their 2 down RB at that time.  

 

I'll say it again.  A guy changing positions is more vulnerable than a guy with a pedigree that the FO invested heavily to acquire to play his established position.  TRich was cut far more slack than he ever deserved.  Until Ty builds a resume as a true runner, he will be cut less slack than he probably deserves, even by the team that is supporting his effort to change positions.  I believe that.  If others don't, that's their call, for better or for worse. 

 

 

 

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19 minutes ago, Rolling Thunder said:

I am a firm believer in trusting one's own eye test even if others see something different.  We all have to respect that.

 

I liked what I saw on film last year.  He was elusive, he broke tackles, he was patient, he was quick through holes.  He's not a power runner, no.  But good thing for him that GB is not a power running team.

 

Would be interested to hear what some of the film junkies saw.

 

Except @vikingapocalypse , he is biased :) 

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2 hours ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

 

We haven't heard anything yet about how TyMont is doing in pass pro so far this preseason.  We know he worked with some experts on it and is committed to it.  But it's all conjecture until we see live action.

we may not have heard much about monty's progress, or lack thereof, in pass pro but we have heard from the offensive coordinator and second hand from a beat writer that williams is "earning" 1st team reps because of his ability in pass pro. i would venture a guess that means monty is coming along slowly in that area

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21 minutes ago, Packdog said:

 we have heard from the offensive coordinator and second hand from a beat writer that williams is "earning" 1st team reps because of his ability in pass pro. i would venture a guess that means monty is coming along slowly in that area

 

2nd string RB is earning first team reps early in August. Good for him. Means little when meaningful football starts. I'd hope the Packers let someone other than Montgomery work with Rodgers a little bit. 

 

If we see Montgomery struggle with assignments in pre season then I'll change my tune. 

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1 hour ago, Lord_Varys said:

But it's an outside chance.  Most likely scenario is that TyMont delivers on his ADP as a true dual threat.  

 

I'm only passionate about this because it seems that irrational fear is pushing people away from a great investment -- fear that a rookie will displace a great talent who's in a perfect situation.  The ADP can be too high for comfort, but I hope we can put the discomfort aside.

 

Give this article a read:

 

http://rotoviz.com/2017/08/forecasting-for-fantasy-football-success/?hvid=3oVes9&utm_content=buffer461ed&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

 

 

Since when is "lack of pass protection skills" an irrational fear when it comes to running back playing time?

 

What do overall pass/run ratios have to do with a running back not knowing how to pass block?

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Just now, Iron-cock said:

 

 

Since when is "lack of pass protection skills" an irrational fear when it comes to running back playing time?

 

 

I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt that he's learned how to do it. Everything I've read points to Montgomery doing 100 percent of what is necessary to make the transition. He already had the ability to produce. He needed to bulk up a little and learn how to pass protect. He's up to 220lb. Reports are he's worked hard with some famous  RB coach (can't remember the name)  specifically on pass pro. 

 

Again it just comes back to me giving him the benefit of the doubt that he learned this last piece of the puzzle. 

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2 hours ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

I liked what I saw on film last year.  He was elusive, he broke tackles, he was patient, he was quick through holes.  He's not a power runner, no.  But good thing for him that GB is not a power running team.

 

Would be interested to hear what some of the film junkies saw.

 

Except @vikingapocalypse , he is biased :) 

 

Ty is very polarizing (not intentionally, of course) when it comes to eye tests.  I owned him last season, so I paid closer attention to his snaps than I did for players I didn't own.  Regardless, I'll admit I am perfectly capable of misreading what I see, especially when I don't know what the CS has asked or expects of him.  

 

I too am interested what others believe they see.  I'm not sold (yet).  So much is instinctive/reactive at the RB position.  For example, when it comes to vision, I believe you either have it or you don't.  You can't develop it on the fly at the professional level.  Similarly, one man's "patience" is another man's "tentativeness."  Then there is that all important pass pro, especially on a pass first team with a HOF QB who demands all the pass protection he can get.

 

Admittedly, this too simple minded, but if Ty was a supremely talented runner from birth, I doubt we would be witnessing an attempt to transition positions at the age 24.  I could be wrong.  Stranger things have  happened.  But that anomoly makes me more skeptical, and perhaps colors my perception when I watch him in action.  Anyway, given his steep price, I believe I am almost duty bound to subject him to heightened scrutiny given his lack of a RB pedigree.  

 

Finally, I am not oblivious to the lure that GB represents when it comes to RB ownership.  It would be a dream-come-true to own a genuine 3 down RB in this uber-productive offense.  Simply put, we desperately want to believe in Ty.  We want to convince ourselves that he's the real deal as a RB.  We want to be that guy or gal who owns a real RB in GB.  I would caution that folks acknowledge that lure when they are subjecting Ty to honest scrutiny.

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On 8/4/2017 at 10:57 AM, Lord_Varys said:

 

I liked what I saw on film last year.  He was elusive, he broke tackles, he was patient, he was quick through holes.  He's not a power runner, no.  But good thing for him that GB is not a power running team.

 

Would be interested to hear what some of the film junkies saw.

 

I went back and watched his 12/18 game vs Chicago where TyMont had 16 carries for 162 yards on coaches film. 

 

I'd agree, he is very patient, and can break tackles pretty well.  I thought his best attribute was his vision.  He read his blockers correctly on every play I watched.  He also does a great job of faking a step to a hole he isn't going into to set up his blockers and fake out defenders.   His long 61 yard run was a thing of beauty.

 

All that said, I didn't get to see him in pass protection much, but I can see why you'd be excited to get him if he's getting a significant number of carries.

 

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1 hour ago, mulhollandvelvet said:

Ty Mont will miss the next preseason game. I really feel like Williams has a chance to close the gap even more and perhaps shoot his ADP way up. 

But the real question is whether Williams has a legit shot of being their RB1?

 

IMO, not until later in the season.

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18 hours ago, lavaman said:

But the real question is whether Williams has a legit shot of being their RB1?

 

IMO, not until later in the season.

Yes he does. If Montgomery keeps putting the ball on the ground (fumbled in first preseason game) and doesn't protect the QB, he won't be their guy.

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It is hard not to be impressed with Williams. Just seeing the limited action in the preseason, he looks like a NFL running back. He is also very good at pass protection. 

 

Montgomery is a gadget player imo. No way he holds up to a season long of taking a full RB workload. Eventually something will give. Wouldn't be surprised if Ty starts off at RB and if through underperformance or injury on his part, that Williams could potentially see more and more touches. They might even do a RBBC from the beginning. A very good interview with Rob Demovsky regarding Jamaal Williams: 

 

https://espn960sports.com/cougar-sports/espns-rob-demovsky-explains-what-jamaal-williams-role-could-be-for-green-bay-packers/

 

Starts around 6:44.

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What has he exactly done?

 

Ty outweighs this kid by 20 pounds. And if the Pack were really concerned about their RB situation, they would've spent a real draft capital to get one; which it isn't because Ty looked great last year. There is no competition. Just a bunch of Ty haters and reporters blowing smoke. 

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On ‎8‎/‎16‎/‎2017 at 6:01 PM, FreakFries said:

I've never owned a Packer RB so correct me if I'm not remembering right, but barring injury, doesn't McCarthy usually stick with a lead dog at RB?

When he has a quality one, yes. Ryan Grant didn't really come off the field much. Neither did Lacy his first year or so. The past few years though he seems to be rotating guys through by the series rather than by down/distance. GB runs a muddle offense, the RB's need to be able to do it all for a series at a time, rotating series to stay fresh.

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Just now, MONEY BALL said:

What has he exactly done?

 

Ty outweighs this kid by 20 pounds. And if the Pack were really concerned about their RB situation, they would've spent a real draft capital to get one; which it isn't because Ty looked great last year. There is no competition. Just a bunch of Ty haters and reporters blowing smoke. 

This was the deepest RB class ever. There was a lot of quality RB's to be had in every round. As with anything, a high supply lowers the cost. Don't be fooled into thinking just because GB got Williams in the 4th that he can't play. He's a 2nd rounder in any other draft.

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2 minutes ago, smetana34 said:

This was the deepest RB class ever. There was a lot of quality RB's to be had in every round. As with anything, a high supply lowers the cost. Don't be fooled into thinking just because GB got Williams in the 4th that he can't play. He's a 2nd rounder in any other draft.

 

If you like this RB class, wait until 2018. You ain't seen nothing yet. 

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