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Corbin Burnes SP - MIL


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Surprised to not find a thread on this guy. Corbin Burnes is a 6'3 205lb 22 year old right handed starting pitcher that was drafted in last year's draft class in the 4th round out of St. Mary's. Burnes has been absolutely dominating hitters all year at A+ leading the entire league in ERA before he was recently promoted to AA where he has hasn't slowed down putting up a line of:

3 GS 16.2IP 1W 1.08ERA 4H 19SO 4BB.

 

His total line for the year is:

 

  LG  LEVEL  W  L  ERA  G   GS  CG  SHO  SV  SVO IP  H R ER  HR  HB  BB  IBB  SO  AVG  WHIP  GO/AO
Minors 2017 [-] - Minors 6 0 1.06 13 13 0 0 0 0 76.2   11 9 1 3 20 0 75 .166 0.82

1.45

 

 

Edited by Dirtywater97
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  • 2 weeks later...

I watched his start last night on MILB tv. I was blown away by his polish. This was my 2nd start I caught of Burnes but the first one I only caught the first 3 innings and never ended up watching the archive of it. I just love how this guy doesn't waste pitches at all. He's always attacking the zone and getting ahead. And ive only seen him get behind in a count about 3 times but everytime he did he pitched to contact and kept the ball on the ground everytime. And from looking at his stats, along with his college career, he NEVER EVER gives up homeruns. I mean yeah obviously he does here and there (2 HRs total to be exact in his short 2 year minor league career) but it's practically none. And with all those things going for him, he's the perfect pitcher to pitch in Miller park (and I'm gonna guess Colorado springs too).

 

Now I could be wrong on this but I'm a long time junkie on pitching mechanics, grips, types of pitches, etc...

And last night I think I saw him pitch 6 or 7 different pitches (well not 7 completely diff pitches but a few were diff variations but still). I saw a 4 seam, a 2 seam that had a lot of sink and he threw it when he was pitching for contact. He threw both a not so effective wipeout-lite slider and a much more effective semi-hard slider, which I really liked. And he either threw his fastball or slider as his strikeout pitch. Now his curveball was extremely slurvy and I only saw it a few times but I was not a fan and he clearly threw it just so the hitter had to think about another pitch. Now his changeup I've heard was his worst pitch but I actually liked it and thought it could be very effective for him and it could be anther out pitch for him because even though it didnt have much fade to it, his arm action and ability throw it with the same release point has to be very encouraging for the brewers pitching coaches. I would like to see more fade to it and for him to slow it down a bit before it becomes a go to pitch for him. I saw it around 6-7 mph differential with his primary fastball. But I don't trust the minor league radar guns especially watching it streamed. But I could tell that it was correct. Id like to see a bigger mph differential tho. 

 

And remember this was my first full game watching Burnes. So everything I'm saying is based off this start. Plus I was drunk and my gf was nagging me. And on top of it, I'm not an expert. Just a lifelong prospect obsessed junkie.

 

But I gotta say, I was bet l very impressed by Burnes. And like I said, he's got the ingredients to be a very good pitcher for the Brewers..

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  • 2 weeks later...

Agree, he's flying under the radar, at least from what I can see he's not getting a lot of love in the prospect circles, not sure why, because he has been lights out.  High pick with pedigree too. 

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Toolshed at MiLB.com has him as the frontrunner to win pitcher of the year: https://www.milb.com/milb/news/toolshed-awarding-midseason-milbys-to-bo-bichette-corbin-burnes/c-241755088/t-185364810

 

His stats are actually better in AA now than they were A+. It's just a matter of time until this guy starts receiving the credit he is due. 2.25FIP to back it all up.

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I've been hearing that Burnes has been consistently hitting 97mph on his fastball lately. Anyone able to confirm that? Burnes has always had a fast arm but never really translated into higher velocity. Burnes velocity was pretty much the one area that's remained the same since St. Mary's. I never watched him in college (I didnt even know anything about him but there's dozens of YouTube videos of him at st Mary's). But I started watching as many starts of his that I could this year in Biloxi. And I never remember him hitting 97. He sat between 92-94mph but it plays up because of his plus command of it and it has a lot of life and movement to it.

 

But hearing that he's consistently hitting 97mph in the 2nd half this year is just another plus this year to a growing list of plusses. 

 

coming into the season scouts questioned his changeup. And I remember knowing that when I watched him this year. But I was very very impressed with his changeup when I saw it and couldn't, understand the skeptics, until I found out that Burnes changeup developed that quickly. And in the last starts I caught of him in late June-early July, his changeup was even better and easily went deep into plus territory for the pitch along with having plus command of it. 

 

Burnes fastball and slider were always considered his best weapons and strikeout pitches. Right now I'd rank his changeup ahead of his above-average to plus slider. Even Keith law who questioned Burnes changeup going into this season, labeled his changeup a true plus pitch in July this year....

 

Here's the link to Keith law regarding Burnes changeup as a plus pitch along with the report that Burnes is consistently hitting 97mph on his fastball:

https://www.brewcrewball.com/2017/7/13/15964782/brewers-corbin-burnes-lewis-brinson-keith-law-top-50

 

Burnes should be owned everywhere...And if this high 90s FB is here to stay for Burnes, and he commands & controls as well as he did his 92-94mph fastball, watch out!z

 

Edited by JakeSarna
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Corbin Burns has been pretty unreal this year, and I think he deserves more love and attention. He's a top 100 prospect in my mind at this point and will very likely make my end of season/offseason top 100. Love hearing the growth in his arsenal as talked about above by @JakeSarna, it backs up what the stats are saying which is that he's improved greatly. His numbers at AA Biloxi this year are downright filthy, a 1.97 ERA with a 9.27 K/9 and a 1.39 BB/9 as well as a 0.23 HR/9. That along with a groundball oriented contact against (48.7 GB% at AA this year, but has produced higher GB percentages at previous levels) and he looks like a pretty ideal pitching prospect. In total, he's a SP with 4 pitches with 3 of them being above-average or plus, above average control and command, and a GB profile that keeps the ball in the ballpark. Even FIP and xFIP support what he's doing this year with 1.97 and 2.49 marks respectively. He's currently at 137.2 innings for the year after throwing 137.1 last year so he's likely due for around 150 this year which would likely put his ETA at next year. Underrated prospect, watch out for him on top 100 lists in the future!

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  • 4 months later...
12 hours ago, Light Tower Power said:

#24 on Keith Laws top 100.

 

Law will be the high man, called him a fitness guy with the stuff of a #2.

Yeah I loved that write up, he seems to be the only one claiming his stuff is nasty though.

 

Everyone else seems to give the same ole regurgitated average/slightly above average stuff with advanced pitchability and command evaluation for him.

 

 

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14 hours ago, Dirtywater97 said:

Yeah I loved that write up, he seems to be the only one claiming his stuff is nasty though.

 

Everyone else seems to give the same ole regurgitated average/slightly above average stuff with advanced pitchability and command evaluation for him.

 

 

 

I really like reillocity's work over on SBNation. Not a traditional way of looking at things, but a great perspective. From Sickels fan post section:

 

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/12/27/16818392/top-performing-starting-pitchers-of-the-2017-minors-per-the-fabio

 

For what it's worth, reillocity mentioned (in the Overall Community Prospect #67) a comparison between Michell White and Corbin Burnes to Kluber per the hitter's inability to ever square either pitcher up. Just another way of looking at things and something you can't typically find from all the big pubs with them presenting this type of MILB data. Saw validation from BA who called White the toughest pitcher to square up in the LAD org and dropped a possible 2 starter on him in their top 10 review.

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  • 2 months later...

He's done a great job maintaining his solid numbers from last season. There's talk he could be up for the Brewers around June. He's easily their third or 4th best pitcher right now. Lots of analysts think he's a solid #3, or low end #2.

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