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Larry Fitzgerald 2017 Outlook


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Fitz always seems difficult to rank. No more so than this season, which is presumably his last.  He finished top 10 in PPG (PPR) last season.  Yet, he currently languishes in the 5th round of 12 teamers, coming off the board as WR28.

 

Is he a legit WR2 candidate?  His week 14 at Miami and week 16 at Seattle were real clunkers (4.2 and 7.1, respectively).  He had only 1 TD after week 5.  With AZ's pass offense seemingly less potent than in years past, maybe Fitz is more properly a WR3 now.  I'd certainly be comfortable taking him in the 5th.

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2015: 109 rec on 146 targets for 1,215 yards and 9 TDs

2016: 108 rec on 151 targets for 1,028 yards and 6 TDs

2017, safe to project him for 105 recs for 1,050, and I'd guess TDs bump to at least 8 with Floyd gone.  Upside is 115, 1,200, and 10.

 

Someone remind me why he's going 2 rounds later than Jarvis Landry who will have the same yards yet half the TDs?

 

On FFC he's going mid 6th, after Moncrief, Benjamin, Edelman, Marshall, Martavis, Crabtree, Landry, Hill, Watkins, Allen, Demaryius.  What is it about this guy that makes people hate him?  Is it the Frank Gore effect (he's so old that he has to slow down eventually)?

 

I would rather have Fitz at WR2 than Demaryius, and that doesn't even have anything to do with ADP or price.  The only guy on this list I'd for sure rather have before Fitz is Martavis.  Crabtree and Marshall are probably in the same tier as Fitz, flip a coin.  Year after year this guy is doubted.  If I wasn't so focused on trying to get the value RBs in rounds 4-7 I'd love to have Fitz on my team.

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40 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

2015: 109 rec on 146 targets for 1,215 yards and 9 TDs

2016: 108 rec on 151 targets for 1,028 yards and 6 TDs

2017, safe to project him for 105 recs for 1,050, and I'd guess TDs bump to at least 8 with Floyd gone.  Upside is 115, 1,200, and 10.

 

Someone remind me why he's going 2 rounds later than Jarvis Landry who will have the same yards yet half the TDs?

 

On FFC he's going mid 6th, after Moncrief, Benjamin, Edelman, Marshall, Martavis, Crabtree, Landry, Hill, Watkins, Allen, Demaryius.  What is it about this guy that makes people hate him?  Is it the Frank Gore effect (he's so old that he has to slow down eventually)?

 

I would rather have Fitz at WR2 than Demaryius, and that doesn't even have anything to do with ADP or price.  The only guy on this list I'd for sure rather have before Fitz is Martavis.  Crabtree and Marshall are probably in the same tier as Fitz, flip a coin.  Year after year this guy is doubted.  If I wasn't so focused on trying to get the value RBs in rounds 4-7 I'd love to have Fitz on my team.

 

I think it has to be his age. I'm super high on him this year as well, but couldn't imagine taking him over DT, Crabtree, or Watkins. Probably Allen too but that's close. All of them (except maybe Crabtree) have a much lower floor, but also have a much higher ceiling. DT has been super consistent and is supposed to be "the guy" this year (whatever that means), and Watkins has gone through OTA's for the first time in I don't know how long. If he can stay healthy, he should easily be a top 10 WR.

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12 minutes ago, afl5013 said:

 

I think it has to be his age. I'm super high on him this year as well, but couldn't imagine taking him over DT, Crabtree, or Watkins. Probably Allen too but that's close. All of them (except maybe Crabtree) have a much lower floor, but also have a much higher ceiling. DT has been super consistent and is supposed to be "the guy" this year (whatever that means), and Watkins has gone through OTA's for the first time in I don't know how long. If he can stay healthy, he should easily be a top 10 WR.

 

I forgot Watkins on that list -- I'd certainly take him before Fitzgerald as well.

 

DT last year had 90 rec for 1,083 yards and 5 TDs.  Fitzgerald outplayed him.  Now Fitz's situation gets better, and DTs?  Still looks like QB purgatory in Denver.

 

Crabtree -- 89 for 1,003 and 8.  Same deal.  

 

All of these guys are in the 1,000-1,100 yard, 5-10 TD area.  Fitz is getting more receptions and presents more TD upside than both.

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14. Larry Fitzgerald, ARI
2017 Projection: 100 receptions / 1000 yards / 7 touchdowns (242 points)
Outlook: The ageless wonder, the Canton-bound Fitzgerald returns to an offense that actually wasn't as bad as it seemed over the last half of last season. There is speculation that this will be Fitzgerald's last season in the NFL, and if so, he will undoubtedly go down as one of the all-time greats. He has been consistent even as he as aged, and returns again as the Cardinals #1 passing game weapon. With the departure of Michael Floyd and the uncertainty in the health of some of the other Cardinal pass catchers, I like Fitzgerald to provide the same consistency that he has put forth for his entire career.

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  • 1 month later...

I definitely think his ADP suffers from the "Frank Gore effect" as dubbed earlier but he has a few key things working in his favor that I think allow him to produce at a high level despite his age:

 

1. His chemistry with Palmer. As long as Palmer stays healthy, I think he's locked in as his favorite target

2. Running almost exclusively from the slot these days, which combined with his veteran savvy helps him win even if his speed isn't quite what it once was (also helps him rack up the receptions)

3. Legendary hands. Like glue. That's a skill that ages very well. Receivers that run great routes and can catch anything thrown their way extend their careers.  

 

I think there's also a chance he increases his TD production this year, and if he does that he's a no doubt WR2. In PPR he's money still. 

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IMO Fitz was a great value in 15, OK in 16, and a stay away in 17. He faded so hard in the second half of the season that he was nigh useless when it counted most. Check the numbers, he was brutal bad after the bye.

 

To top it off, many experts (including Silva) have him ranked among 3rd round receivers (12 team PPR). I'm staying away, he's a legend but he won't help you late in the year. I know you need to get to the playoffs first but I'd rather someone who can contribute all year.

 

 

Edited by Bendr
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29 minutes ago, Bendr said:

IMO Fitz was a great value in 15, OK in 16, and a stay away in 17. He faded so hard in the second half of the season that he was nigh useless when it counted most. Check the numbers, he was brutal bad after the bye.

 

To top it off, many experts (including Silva) have him ranked among 3rd round receivers (12 team PPR). I'm staying away, he's a legend but he won't help you late in the year. I know you need to get to the playoffs first but I'd rather someone who can contribute all year.

 

 

It's likely his last year, I'm willing that whatever greatness he has left in the tank, we see for the his swan song campaign. I'm keeping Lynch, Henry, and Cooper. I think I'm gonna roll the rocks on Fitz in the 5th round. If he runs out of gas at the end, I'll swing a deal at the deadline, but I don't think that will happen. On watch in the preseason. :D Going for it all this season. 

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Fitzgerald's age + Palmer's age = 71.    more risk than your typical 34 year WR nearing the end of his hall of fame career.  Fitzgerald's as a WR3 is a great value but as a WR2 he carries too much risk for a bad finish.

 

Interestingly Edelman's age + Brady's age also = 71 but that combination doesn't feel as risky.

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  • 2 weeks later...
17 minutes ago, herschel said:

pretty quiet in here for one of the most consistent wrs in the league, no?

Fine with me. I own him in almost every league this year. 

 

No no competition for targets, Ariana and Carson lean on him, Cards will be improved this year. 100 catch lock imo. 

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Just now, ludawg23 said:

The guy stays in tremendous shape.  As long as Palmer is upright, he can give you low-end WR1 stats in PPR for a great price.

Exactly. In PPR setting, I trust him way more then any of the RB's going in his range.  Evan Silvia has him at WR12 right now.

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13 minutes ago, Fort4242 said:

I love Fitz in PPR leagues for all the same reasons stated above.  However, we've seen Fitz fall off pretty good in the second half each of the last 2 years.  Is that of concern at all?

Definitely something to keep in mind but very true...especially last year.

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20 minutes ago, Fort4242 said:

I love Fitz in PPR leagues for all the same reasons stated above.  However, we've seen Fitz fall off pretty good in the second half each of the last 2 years.  Is that of concern at all?

2 years ago, Palmer was injured at the end, last year Palmer missed a game I believe and the Cards were out of it. It's something I consider, but it's in context not a a large issue.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Too bad you have to draft old guys like Fitz and Gore knowing you'll likely never be able to get fair value in a trade for them. He's a great bet to return WR2 value at a WR3 price, with a chance still of low-end WR1 value. It's even sweeter if you get him as a 4th WR to flex.

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