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Luis Castillo 2017 Outlook


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17 minutes ago, dod959 said:

 

 

 

We haven't had a chance to see him vary his location with it though. It's possible they can't catch up to it if he elevates it. But so far, Barnhart is calling it down and away *a lot*. 

 

If you take out his first career start @ WSH, you're left with a 2.99 xFIP and a 26.3% K-BB% (@ COL, @ ARZ, vs. MIL). That's about as good of a debut as you can hope for. 

 

 

How do Feldman's stats look during that same period?(on pay by minute phone)

Edited by the real donny baseball
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When talking about scouting reports, I think it is important to consider the date and year when written.

What I'm posting below is from 2017, and in this thread (first page):

 

1.  First- thanks for posting the scouting report.. One thing to note though, is he has worked with a completely new pitching staff that has turned his secondaries into near plus pitches.. They have him throwing a slider more instead of using the curveball and it sounds like the slider is improving every day.. I've read a report or two that put it as a plus pitch with 2 plane break. He's missing quite a bit more bats than last year.. 

 

2.  Also read the scouting report on the two plane break on his slider. If I rememebr correctly, the SWSTR% increased a couple percent on his pitch this year alone. 

 

I mean, this post above (1st one) was posted by JenksDodger about Castioll's secondary stuff responding to me. Another post (2nd one) from S1mcity on results of the slider since it has improved.

 

I know there is a easier way of doing this, but for some reason, it locks my PC up every time.  Pardon me.

Edited by Z06vette
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2 hours ago, dod959 said:

Anyone that can tunnel a 98 mph fastball, a 87 mph change and a 84 mph slider, has a chance. 

 

His change is way better than scouts gave him credit for. Against ARZ it was flashing plus-plus IMO. It's coming out like a fastball, starting in the zone, and dropping off the table. It's basically textbook. 

 

His fastball is hittable though. In his first start, he gave up a dinger to Goodwin on 99 mph. Goodwin saw only 1 fastball prior to that and was able to square him up, so it is hittable. 

 

We haven't had a chance to see him vary his location with it though. It's possible they can't catch up to it if he elevates it. But so far, Barnhart is calling it down and away *a lot*. 

 

If you take out his first career start @ WSH, you're left with a 2.99 xFIP and a 26.3% K-BB% (@ COL, @ ARZ, vs. MIL). That's about as good of a debut as you can hope for. 

 

He was getting righties to chase that pitch badly. And it almost looking like a slider at first it had so much vertical movement. 

 

http://m.mlb.com/video/v1592482183

 

Check out those K's back to back to back on Goldy, Owings and Drury. That's filthy if you can get a righty to chase on those

 

 

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56 minutes ago, YuSlyDog said:

When I watched his start at AZ, I was very disappointed I didn't get any shares. Dude's stuff is nasty, announcers mentioned Pedro when talking about his stuff. 

 

Kind of unrelated here, but doesn't it seem like Pedro gets used as an example/comparison a lot?  Maybe I'm wrong but I feel like he's brought up way more than others when young guys with a live arm enter the league.  

 

Maybe it's because he's just that iconic I dunno, just always seemed odd when you consider how good/unique Pedro was. 

 

Nothing against Luis. Just an observation. 

Edited by Baur10
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WTF I read that he only had two pitches and projected as a reliever...I missed out on one of the best pitchers in the second half from a bad scouting report?!?

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1 minute ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

He has a FB, CH, and a developing SL. Definitely needs to be picked up. 

He's already gone in my 10 team redraft

Edited by Dr. Whom
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28 minutes ago, Baur10 said:

 

Kind of unrelated here, but doesn't it seem like Pedro gets used as an example/comparison a lot?  Maybe I'm wrong but I feel like he's brought up way more than others when young guys with a live arm enter the league.  

 

Maybe it's because he's just that iconic I dunno, just always seemed odd when you consider how good/unique Pedro was. 

 

Nothing against Luis. Just an observation. 

 

Every young flame thrower is the next Pedro Martinez until they're not

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Big fan.  Watched his start vs AZ and he had the Dbacks throwing bats into the stands trying to figure him out.  Looks nasty.  I'm sure most owners have someone on their roster worth releasing in order to give this guy a couple looks.

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3 hours ago, YuSlyDog said:

When I watched his start at AZ, I was very disappointed I didn't get any shares. Dude's stuff is nasty, announcers mentioned Pedro when talking about his stuff. 

Announcers are foolish, then. Pedro had, what, 6 plus pitches? Castillo has 2? I don't remember what Pedro was working with when he came up but I'm guessing he had a more varied arsenal than Castillo does. Let's pump the brakes on comparing him to arguably the greatest pitcher of all-time.

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1 hour ago, miasma16 said:

Announcers are foolish, then. Pedro had, what, 6 plus pitches? Castillo has 2? I don't remember what Pedro was working with when he came up but I'm guessing he had a more varied arsenal than Castillo does. Let's pump the brakes on comparing him to arguably the greatest pitcher of all-time.

Of course, wasn't saying he ever will be or ever even sniff Pedro. Just cool to hear any comparison to him. 

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Next 3 starts don't get any easier especially considering his home park.  Lines up as:

 

Home vs Wash (7/15), home vs Ariz (7/20) and at NYY (7/25).  

 

Of course if they stick additional rest in between any of these it could change. 

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Shutdown candidate?  

 

131 IP in 2016 currently at 103 IP.  You think maybe they get him up to 160?  

 

That'd give us ~9-12 starts left depending on how deep he goes.  That works for me b/c my league ends ithe last week of Aug, but for those of you who play into September it's something to keep an eye on.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Thoughts. Especially in deep keeper leagues? 

 

So he's faced 

WASx2

MIL

@COL

ARI 

and is set to face ARI again for his next matchup. The matchups are brutal, but he's looked so dang solid so far. 

 

Besides the high heat (his FB sits at around 98) he is bringing, he seems to be playing way over his head. 

 

K/9 way above what he has shown in the minors. 

LD% 6.9%

GB% 56.9%

LOB% 96%

These all scream regression, but on the other side his HR/9 and HR/FB rates are way above what they were in the minors. While he's probably not as good as he has appeared, I'm so impressed with what he has done against some of the best offenses in MLB. 

 

So now that we seen him for a while are any of you stashing him in deeper leagues or putting him on your radar for drafts next year? 

 

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He is already gone in all my leagues.  Love what he is doing so far.  Baptism of fire vs all these monster hitting teams and he is holding his own.  As his third pitch becomes more refined he will get even better.  I would love to see one of his games but Cincy doesn't make national broadcasts and MLB Network isn't offered by my cable company and my computer is so old and slow it is just getting in streamed games of Bob Feller.

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17 minutes ago, lipitorkid said:

Thoughts. Especially in deep keeper leagues? 

 

So he's faced 

WASx2

MIL

@COL

ARI 

and is set to face ARI again for his next matchup. The matchups are brutal, but he's looked so dang solid so far. 

 

Besides the high heat (his FB sits at around 98) he is bringing, he seems to be playing way over his head. 

 

K/9 way above what he has shown in the minors. 

LD% 6.9%

GB% 56.9%

LOB% 96%

These all scream regression, but on the other side his HR/9 and HR/FB rates are way above what they were in the minors. While he's probably not as good as he has appeared, I'm so impressed with what he has done against some of the best offenses in MLB. 

 

So now that we seen him for a while are any of you stashing him in deeper leagues or putting him on your radar for drafts next year? 

 

While I definitely agree he is not as good as he has been so far(which is pretty damn good given who hes faced), I still think theres a lot to like here. I believe @Z06vette pointed out(see below) that he has kind of reshaped his arsenal. He has supposedly scrapped his curve for a slider that is improving daily. On top of that. He has a 97+ heater with drop and an 88 mph change that drops off the table out of the same arm slot so its difficult for hitters to pick up. 

On 7/11/2017 at 2:39 PM, Z06vette said:

When talking about scouting reports, I think it is important to consider the date and year when written.

What I'm posting below is from 2017, and in this thread (first page):

 

1.  First- thanks for posting the scouting report.. One thing to note though, is he has worked with a completely new pitching staff that has turned his secondaries into near plus pitches.. They have him throwing a slider more instead of using the curveball and it sounds like the slider is improving every day.. I've read a report or two that put it as a plus pitch with 2 plane break. He's missing quite a bit more bats than last year.. 

 

2.  Also read the scouting report on the two plane break on his slider. If I rememebr correctly, the SWSTR% increased a couple percent on his pitch this year alone. 

 

I mean, this post above (1st one) was posted by JenksDodger about Castioll's secondary stuff responding to me. Another post (2nd one) from S1mcity on results of the slider since it has improved.

 

I know there is a easier way of doing this, but for some reason, it locks my PC up every time.  Pardon me.

 

Edited by TXTaz
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I don't see how he's not ownable in all but leagues w/ less than 10 teams at this point. I've watched his last two starts and I'm extremely impressed. The HR Rendon hit and the double Murphy hit weren't on bad pitches. I didn't see anything over the middle either tonight or against Ari last week. I personally think he's got a good chance to be this year's version of Degrom when he came up (not a big prospect, but throws heat with interesting secondaries). He wasn't high on pre-season lists because he hadn't developed his non-fastball pitches well in Miami. Cin has addressed the issue. I love his changeup personally and think his slider is way more than just a show me pitch. Would call the changeup plus and the slider average. Those combined with decent command of a 100MPH heater is a pretty exciting arsenal. And despite the walks, he does have good command. Like I said, nothing's been in the fat part of the zone the last two starts. He's nibbling a little, but it's either just on the corner or just off of it.

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6 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

He is already gone in all my leagues.  Love what he is doing so far.  Baptism of fire vs all these monster hitting teams and he is holding his own.  As his third pitch becomes more refined he will get even better.  I would love to see one of his games but Cincy doesn't make national broadcasts and MLB Network isn't offered by my cable company and my computer is so old and slow it is just getting in streamed games of Bob Feller.

 

I'll just leave this here for you BB... 

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