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5 minutes ago, mrschrod said:

 

I enjoy your predictions because you do have a different take than most people, and I can respect that you put work and thought into making your rankings. Having said that, if you think Gronk and Kelce are on the same skill level, you are sorely mistaken. Gronk, when he is healthy, may be the best TE in the history of football. Kelce is good, but he is not near that level.

 

his rankings seem to be factoring in health so it makes sense to have Gronk where he is.  I don't think anyone predicts to Gronk to have a fully healthy season anymore.

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Is anyone else a fan of streaming TE's? Sometimes you have to due to injuries, but this past year I tried waiting on TE's in both my leagues as an experiment. I won the championship in one league and almost won it in the other league, partially I believe due to the success of TE streaming. I essentially waited on TE's in both leagues and drafted Antonio Gates in the 11th/12th round of a 12-team standard league. Gates didn't pan out, but streaming the rest of the way worked out for me. I'm posting the data from my championship league:

 

Week Standard pts. Player Notes
Week 1 2 Antonio Gates Drafted Gates
Week 2 7.5 Antonio Gates Gates gets injured
Week 3 2.8 Jacob Tamme I realize Tamme blows
Week 4 12.1 Hunter Henry Picked up Henry with Gates out
Week 5 13.4 Hunter Henry Rolling with Henry
Week 6 14.3 Hunter Henry Rolling with Henry
Week 7 1.6 Hunter Henry Gates comes back and starts being annoying for Hunter's production
Week 8 1.4 Hunter Henry I realize Gates is Henry's doom
Week 9 2.3 Gary Barnidge Picked up Barnidge off waivers
Week 10 10.2 Martellus bennett Got lucky when someone dropped Bennett in his bye week hell
Week 11 1.4 Martellus bennett Snagged up Ladarius Green this week as he's coming off IR
Week 12 2.6 Martellus bennett Still rolling with Bennett
Week 13 17 Ladarius green Unleashed L. Green
Week 14 2.5 Ladarius green Rolling with Green
Week 15 7.2 Ladarius green Snagged up C. Clay playing against Browns but didn't start him
Week 16 20.5 Charles Clay Green injured, insert Clay
Total 118.8    

 

Through 16 weeks that netted me a top 4 TE at no cost other than an 11th/12th round pick. Going this route also allowed me to gather more talent at WR and RB, which was absolutely crucial at certain points of the season when injuries started to pile up and I had the depth at RB/WR to weather the storm. I'm not saying this will work for everyone, but I noticed there were streamable TE options on the WW most weeks, as guys don't like to carry two TE's, especially when bye weeks and injuries happen mid season. 

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44 minutes ago, MurderInc said:

Is anyone else a fan of streaming TE's? Sometimes you have to due to injuries, but this past year I tried waiting on TE's in both my leagues as an experiment. I won the championship in one league and almost won it in the other league, partially I believe due to the success of TE streaming. I essentially waited on TE's in both leagues and drafted Antonio Gates in the 11th/12th round of a 12-team standard league. Gates didn't pan out, but streaming the rest of the way worked out for me. I'm posting the data from my championship league:

 

Week Standard pts. Player Notes
Week 1 2 Antonio Gates Drafted Gates
Week 2 7.5 Antonio Gates Gates gets injured
Week 3 2.8 Jacob Tamme I realize Tamme blows
Week 4 12.1 Hunter Henry Picked up Henry with Gates out
Week 5 13.4 Hunter Henry Rolling with Henry
Week 6 14.3 Hunter Henry Rolling with Henry
Week 7 1.6 Hunter Henry Gates comes back and starts being annoying for Hunter's production
Week 8 1.4 Hunter Henry I realize Gates is Henry's doom
Week 9 2.3 Gary Barnidge Picked up Barnidge off waivers
Week 10 10.2 Martellus bennett Got lucky when someone dropped Bennett in his bye week hell
Week 11 1.4 Martellus bennett Snagged up Ladarius Green this week as he's coming off IR
Week 12 2.6 Martellus bennett Still rolling with Bennett
Week 13 17 Ladarius green Unleashed L. Green
Week 14 2.5 Ladarius green Rolling with Green
Week 15 7.2 Ladarius green Snagged up C. Clay playing against Browns but didn't start him
Week 16 20.5 Charles Clay Green injured, insert Clay
Total 118.8    

 

Through 16 weeks that netted me a top 4 TE at no cost other than an 11th/12th round pick. Going this route also allowed me to gather more talent at WR and RB, which was absolutely crucial at certain points of the season when injuries started to pile up and I had the depth at RB/WR to weather the storm. I'm not saying this will work for everyone, but I noticed there were streamable TE options on the WW most weeks, as guys don't like to carry two TE's, especially when bye weeks and injuries happen mid season. 

With the exception of Barnidge or Clay I don't think any of those guys were readily available in any of the leagues I played in. You gambled with Hunter out of the gate, got lucky and were lucky to land Bennett. May have worked, but you are living dangerously my friend. I will only stream K and D/ST.

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1 hour ago, pikerbkb said:

With the exception of Barnidge or Clay I don't think any of those guys were readily available in any of the leagues I played in. You gambled with Hunter out of the gate, got lucky and were lucky to land Bennett. May have worked, but you are living dangerously my friend. I will only stream K and D/ST.

 

Clay was readily available on the WW before the FFL playoffs and was a league winner if you had the foresight to remember how good he is when Watkins and Tyrod are healthy and ignore all the pundits who said he was a waste of a roster spot with limited upside. Streaming TE takes guts, but can be worth it if it allows you to devote more resources to WR/RB. 

 

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55 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

Clay was readily available on the WW before the FFL playoffs and was a league winner if you had the foresight to remember how good he is when Watkins and Tyrod are healthy and ignore all the pundits who said he was a waste of a roster spot with limited upside. Streaming TE takes guts, but can be worth it if it allows you to devote more resources to WR/RB. 

 

No

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7 hours ago, Iron-cock said:

 

I like Gronk's value, I've seen him go in the third in some drafts which is crazy to me.  That said, there are some nice value guys, especially late with Doyle and Fleener in high volume offenses. 

 

 

We all know Gronk is an injury risk but when he is in your lineup he gives you a huge advantage at TE over any other team.  If you can get him as the 3rd best player on your team, that seems like great value.  With Gronk you may have to carry 3 TEs.  Maybe one of them his handcuff Dwayne Allen.  There is also that awful risk at the end of the year that the Pats have the division wrapped up and they decide to rest a beat up Gronk.  I have seen and I understand why some rankings are actually putting Kelce ahead of him, but it's still Gronk for me.

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Just going to say that there's a somewhat fine line between traditional streaming and just scooping up the best prospect off waivers after last week's pick didn't work out. Streaming vs. Sharting? ?  

 

A guy in one of my leagues won the chp using Gates in the playoffs. No streaming involved.

 

No offense DD, you did what you had to do to win, but it sounds more like like a reactionary strategy or "hot hand" thing. Like if you were truly streaming players, you'd have a proactive approach where you'd be working off of a match up schedule and possibly switching players even if they had a productive week. Yes? 

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2 hours ago, Elwood333 said:

We all know Gronk is an injury risk but when he is in your lineup he gives you a huge advantage at TE over any other team.  If you can get him as the 3rd best player on your team, that seems like great value.  With Gronk you may have to carry 3 TEs.  Maybe one of them his handcuff Dwayne Allen.  There is also that awful risk at the end of the year that the Pats have the division wrapped up and they decide to rest a beat up Gronk.  I have seen and I understand why some rankings are actually putting Kelce ahead of him, but it's still Gronk for me.

 

Rostering 3 TEs in season long?  After spending a 3rd on Gronk?  That's a big time wasted roster spot. Are you talking season long?

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6 hours ago, Ravensdan said:

 

Rostering 3 TEs in season long?  After spending a 3rd on Gronk?  That's a big time wasted roster spot. Are you talking season long?

I am but I am also talking about deeper rosters - 25 players.  If there are startable TEs on the waiver wire then you can do that.  If it's shallow enough maybe you can just try to snag Dwayne Allen or Jared Cook off the waiver wire when he gets hurt.  Still unless it's a season ending injury you can't cut Gronk.

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12 hours ago, MurderInc said:

Is anyone else a fan of streaming TE's? Sometimes you have to due to injuries, but this past year I tried waiting on TE's in both my leagues as an experiment. I won the championship in one league and almost won it in the other league, partially I believe due to the success of TE streaming. I essentially waited on TE's in both leagues and drafted Antonio Gates in the 11th/12th round of a 12-team standard league. Gates didn't pan out, but streaming the rest of the way worked out for me. I'm posting the data from my championship league:

 

Week Standard pts. Player Notes
Week 1 2 Antonio Gates Drafted Gates
Week 2 7.5 Antonio Gates Gates gets injured
Week 3 2.8 Jacob Tamme I realize Tamme blows
Week 4 12.1 Hunter Henry Picked up Henry with Gates out
Week 5 13.4 Hunter Henry Rolling with Henry
Week 6 14.3 Hunter Henry Rolling with Henry
Week 7 1.6 Hunter Henry Gates comes back and starts being annoying for Hunter's production
Week 8 1.4 Hunter Henry I realize Gates is Henry's doom
Week 9 2.3 Gary Barnidge Picked up Barnidge off waivers
Week 10 10.2 Martellus bennett Got lucky when someone dropped Bennett in his bye week hell
Week 11 1.4 Martellus bennett Snagged up Ladarius Green this week as he's coming off IR
Week 12 2.6 Martellus bennett Still rolling with Bennett
Week 13 17 Ladarius green Unleashed L. Green
Week 14 2.5 Ladarius green Rolling with Green
Week 15 7.2 Ladarius green Snagged up C. Clay playing against Browns but didn't start him
Week 16 20.5 Charles Clay Green injured, insert Clay
Total 118.8    

 

Through 16 weeks that netted me a top 4 TE at no cost other than an 11th/12th round pick. Going this route also allowed me to gather more talent at WR and RB, which was absolutely crucial at certain points of the season when injuries started to pile up and I had the depth at RB/WR to weather the storm. I'm not saying this will work for everyone, but I noticed there were streamable TE options on the WW most weeks, as guys don't like to carry two TE's, especially when bye weeks and injuries happen mid season. 

In your league can you confirm the totals for the top 5 or 6 TEs so that we can see the point gap?  If your in a 10 team league top 5, 12 team league top 6, or 16 team league top 8.  In my leagues scoring system the top 6 TEs were Kelce, Rudolph, Olsen, Graham, Walker, & Ertz.  It a very interesting approach but I suspect you were in the bottom half of your league in TE scoring.

 

I remember a year in my past where I drafted Randy McMicheal as my starting TE when he was a Dolphin.  He was awful and unstartable that year.  I tried to steam TEs all year and lost at TE every week!  I absolutely hate having a crater in my team like that.  If something like that would happen today I have more experience and know that I would make a trade with another owner so I don't have to relive that.  That year may have been a year where the top TEs were really strong though.  I remember that in a 10 team league I ended up finishing 10th in TE scoring.  Actually that may be the only year I have missed the playoffs in that keeper league.

 

 

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17 hours ago, mrschrod said:

 

I enjoy your predictions because you do have a different take than most people, and I can respect that you put work and thought into making your rankings. Having said that, if you think Gronk and Kelce are on the same skill level, you are sorely mistaken. Gronk, when he is healthy, may be the best TE in the history of football. Kelce is good, but he is not near that level.

I think at this point they are closer than what most people think, solely due to Gronk's injury history and extra tread on the tires, so to speak. At full health and not counting injuries, I agree with you. However, Gronk has taken a beating each year in the league and I feel as if Kelce is as good as Gronk at this point based solely on health.

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10 minutes ago, Br0kenB said:

I think at this point they are closer than what most people think, solely due to Gronk's injury history and extra tread on the tires, so to speak. At full health and not counting injuries, I agree with you. However, Gronk has taken a beating each year in the league and I feel as if Kelce is as good as Gronk at this point based solely on health.

 

If you like Kelce more than Gronk due to injury concerns, I can understand that. But in the 5 games that Gronk played (not counting his first game back where he got next to no playing time), Gronk averaged 105.8 YPG and .6 TD per game despite missing a half due to injury. Can he keep those numbers up? That's debatable, but in the short sample size we saw last year, Gronk, while healthy, still was heads above any other TE. If you think that his latest injury will slow him down this year, that's fine, but I'm not willing to discount him as he was dominant the last time we saw him

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I'd rather have Kelce.  He's been dependable and fairly consistent every week.  As Gronk slides in drafts he becomes much more enticing but I'm not using a 3rd or higher on him with the risks he brings now.

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  • 2 weeks later...

If I wait on a TE this year I'm grabbing Ben Watson real late.  Pitta's injury opens up a lot a lot of possible volume here.  

 

Another guy I like is AJ Derby in DEN.  Not sure I'd draft him but I'm keeping on eye on him through preseason to see if McCoy gets him any looks.  Played QB, LB, and TE in college.  Good blocker, good hands and route running.  Could be on the field for 3 downs.  No idea if they can support another player in the passing game.  Confidence is low.

 

I like Ebron too but I'm also looking at 3-4 other Lions so it's likely I'll pass.

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37 minutes ago, dogfightgiggle said:

If I wait on a TE this year I'm grabbing Ben Watson real late.  Pitta's injury opens up a lot a lot of possible volume here.  

 

Another guy I like is AJ Derby in DEN.  Not sure I'd draft him but I'm keeping on eye on him through preseason to see if McCoy gets him any looks.  Played QB, LB, and TE in college.  Good blocker, good hands and route running.  Could be on the field for 3 downs.  No idea if they can support another player in the passing game.  Confidence is low.

 

I like Ebron too but I'm also looking at 3-4 other Lions so it's likely I'll pass.

 

Austin hooper is the guy outside the top 12 I like. He has the opportunity in a good offense. 2nd year TE. I like his chances better than HHH

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I'd say, in terms of tiers, it goes:

 

1. Gronk

 

2. Kelce

3. Reed

 

4. Graham

5. Olsen

6. Eifert

 

Everyone else. Bennett, Rudolph, Ebron, Henry, Doyle... there are a lot of decent dart throws for people who wait, but I think those six guys have a ceiling that justifies an earlier look.

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1 hour ago, irvnasty said:

I'd say, in terms of tiers, it goes:

 

1. Gronk

 

2. Kelce

3. Reed

 

4. Graham

5. Olsen

6. Eifert

 

Everyone else. Bennett, Rudolph, Ebron, Henry, Doyle... there are a lot of decent dart throws for people who wait, but I think those six guys have a ceiling that justifies an earlier look.

 

Agree.

 

I would just point out that Rudolf was targeted more than any other TE last season, and from week 9 on Ertz was a 17+ PPG (PPR) machine.  TE success is as much about QB bromance as anything.  Bradford has learned to love Rudolf and Wentz has bonded big time with Ertz.  I bet these two don't end up too far off the top 6 (if at all).  Both are great choices if you elect to wait until the 8th or 9th rounds in a 12 teamer.

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ALWAYS wait on TE, this is not the ole jimmy graham gronkowski hernandez days where you want one of the few absolute studs

 

Yes there are consistency factors and peace of mind issues but the gap between olsen kelce eifert etc. to me will not be worth the price when i can get a solid rb/wr instead or in an auction devote more money to a rb/wr stud

 

every year there are a handful of random TE's that jump into relevance, just find one

 

again, my opinion

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On 6/23/2017 at 3:31 AM, Elwood333 said:

I am but I am also talking about deeper rosters - 25 players.  If there are startable TEs on the waiver wire then you can do that.  If it's shallow enough maybe you can just try to snag Dwayne Allen or Jared Cook off the waiver wire when he gets hurt.  Still unless it's a season ending injury you can't cut Gronk.

 

25 players on a roster?  What in the f--- kind of league is that?  Seriously.  Way to suck all the phone out of the waivers, hah.  We only have 5 bench spots in my league.

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  • 4 weeks later...

I really liked the post of @MurderInc above.  Here's one for me.  The bottom line is that by buying a $2 TE (TE #13) in a 14-team league, and using one waiver priority and the rest FA grabs, I was able to cobble together a TE6 performance (which was less than 0.6 PPG less than TE3) in a PPR format:

 

Week Player Points Comment                        
1 D. Allen 15.3 Selected as the #13 TE off board.  Scores a TD in opening week.              
2 D. Allen 4.5                          
3 D. Allen 6.5                          
4 D. Allen 4 Doyle has emerged, cutting into main reason I wanted Allen (sole possession of TE job)          
5 Brate 4.8 Waiver/FA grab                      
6 H. Henry 20.3 Waiver grab goes bonkers in primetime                  
7 H. Henry 2.6 Now Eifert is available and I grab him; if he looks good I've got my guy            
8 Eifert 25.2 Eifert takes London by storm                    
9 Brate 15.3 Eifert on bye                      
10 Eifert 6.7                          
11 Eifert 17.8                          
12 Eifert 10.5                          
13 Eifert 21.8                          
14 BYE 1.9 #2 seed in 14 team league; I get the week off, convenient because Eifert breaks down - I'll put his score in here because I'd have used him
15 H. Henry 0 I just held onto Henry late in the season.  His goose egg doesn't help but I get lucky and get to the final.      
16 H. Henry 14.3 I lose, but not because of my TE.                  
PPR total: 171.5                          
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  • 2 weeks later...

TIER 1

1.  Gronk

 

TIER 2

2.  Reed

3.  Kelce

 

TIER 3

4.  Olsen

5.  Graham

6.  Eifert

 

TIER 4

7.  Bennett

8.  Ertz

9.  Henry

10.  Doyle

 

TIER 5

11.  Walker

12.  Rudolph

13.  Fleener

14.  Hooper

15.  Ebron

 

TIER 6

16.  Brate

17.  Thomas

18.  Honorary spot for Pitta - I will miss him.

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Folks are really down on Gronk, I landed him at 3.10 in a 12 man PPR Dynasty startup, with TE PREMIUM scoring this weekend. $200 per year entry with 2 seasons paid upfront, so not some random office league. 

 

Already posted this in the Gronk outlook thread, but I think he could put up an absolute monster season this year. The Pats are looking ridiculous and the addition of Cooks was a good thing for him. 

 

Cooks, Edelman, Hogan and Mitchell with Burkhead, Lewis and White in the mix?

 

Tom Brady is about to genocide the NFL. Gronk is going to pitch a tend in the end zone. Only thing holding him back as always is fitness. 

 

This is how it goes every year it seems. Gronk monsters it, is back in late round 1/early round 2 discussion. People pick him that high and he gets hurt, and his value drops again. 

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