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Devin Funchess 2017 Season Outlook


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6 hours ago, the Ghost of Joe Webb said:

 

One of those guys with a negative name brand. His potential breakout reminds me of Davante Adams who was also seen as a disappointing fantasy asset.

Adams is a disappointing fantasy asset again

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1 hour ago, yanksman said:

That myth has been debunked numerous times but I like the way you're thinking. 

 

That isn't entirely correct. I agree there are some WRs that developer sooner (1-2 years) while some might take 4 years or more. So 3 years isn't some magic number that all WRs adhere to. But there is definitely something there for many WRs, as you can see a 3rd year jump. Obviously it isn't a one size fits all and you can't blanket all WRs and say they will breakout their 3rd year.

 

 

 

9pxuaDz.png

 

 

Quote

Overall, the third-year wide receiver theory seems to have some legs. Of players to score more than 150 points in their third season, 26% of them did so while increasing their production from their second season to their third season by more than 50%. We must not fall into the trap of thinking most third year wide receivers will see a jump in production in their third season though. Again, 254 wide receivers were drafted or went undrafted and then were signed between 2005 and 2014. 77 of them didn’t record a single fantasy point their third season – 44 of those 77 recorded points in their second season.

https://dynastyfootballfactory.com/third-year-wide-receiver-theory/

 

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1 hour ago, Members_Only_76 said:

Feels like chasing points by adding him especially if you have limited roster space.

 

I'm not sold.

 

Do you even know what the term chasing points means if you are using that in reference to Funchess? 

 

Funchess was a 2017 season breakout candidate. We are starting to see that. What sped it along was Olsen's injury. You aren't chasing points when the WR is getting a 30% target market share and averaging close to 10 targets per game.

 

From a statical standpoint, WR1s/high end WR2s get ~20-30% of market share (their % and being a WR1 depends on how efficient they are with their targets, average depth of target, red zone use, QB play....etc.). From last season:

 

Julio Jones= 24%

Larry Fitzgerald= 23.2%

AJ Green= 17.8%

Jordy Nelson= 24.5%

DeAndre Hopkins= 25.9%

TY Hilton= 26.5%

Stefon Diggs= 19%

Julian Edelman= 28.9%

Odell Beckham Jr= 28.3%

Michael Crabtree= 24.3%

Antonio Brown= 25.8%

Mike Evans= 29.9%

Doug Baldwin= 22%

 

 

If you don't want to start him, I can understand that. Don't start him. But let's not kid ourselves; Funchess serves a role in this offense that even Benjamin doesn't. Not to mention the rapport and trust that Devin has built with Cam.

 

Sounds like you don't even own him, so that is your prerogative and were aren't on here to convince you what to do with your team. But I will 100% add players that are averaging double digits targets per game (or close to it) and that represent WR1/WR2 level target shares + used in the red zone + have trust of their QB.

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9 minutes ago, burninglegs said:

 

Do you even know what the term chasing points means if you are using that in reference to Funchess? 

 

Funchess was a 2017 season breakout candidate. We are starting to see that. What sped it along was Olsen's injury. You aren't chasing points when the WR is getting a 30% target market share and averaging close to 10 targets per game.

 

From a statical standpoint, WR1s/high end WR2s get ~20-30% of market share (their % and being a WR1 depends on how efficient they are with their targets, average depth of target, red zone use, QB play....etc.). From last season:

 

Julio Jones= 24%

Larry Fitzgerald= 23.2%

AJ Green= 17.8%

Jordy Nelson= 24.5%

DeAndre Hopkins= 25.9%

TY Hilton= 26.5%

Stefon Diggs= 19%

Julian Edelman= 28.9%

Odell Beckham Jr= 28.3%

Michael Crabtree= 24.3%

Antonio Brown= 25.8%

Mike Evans= 29.9%

Doug Baldwin= 22%

 

 

If you don't want to start him, I can understand that. Don't start him. But let's not kid ourselves; Funchess serves a role in this offense that even Benjamin doesn't. Not to mention the rapport and trust that Devin has built with Cam.

 

Sounds like you don't even own him, so that is your prerogative and were aren't on here to convince you what to do with your team. But I will 100% add players that are averaging double digits targets per game (or close to it) and that represent WR1/WR2 level target shares + used in the red zone + have trust of their QB.

 

Appreciate your posts, research, and insights.

 

I just don't trust CAR or Cam to produce consistent WR stats. Funchess just doesn't do much for me (eye test wise). CAR defense keeps them in games.

 

2 for 20 against SF

4 for 58 against NO

Last week against is the first time he got in the endzone and had more than 2-4 receptions.

 

To me it's chasing points when a guy has a big game that usually doesn't and probably won't continue to . JMHO, no offense to you or Funchess owners.


Carry on.

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42 minutes ago, Members_Only_76 said:

 

Appreciate your posts, research, and insights.

 

I just don't trust CAR or Cam to produce consistent WR stats. Funchess just doesn't do much for me (eye test wise). CAR defense keeps them in games.

 

2 for 20 against SF

4 for 58 against NO

Last week against is the first time he got in the endzone and had more than 2-4 receptions.

 

To me it's chasing points when a guy has a big game that usually doesn't and probably won't continue to . JMHO, no offense to you or Funchess owners.


Carry on.

 

If the issue is Cam, I can see that and respect that. Definitely is a concern as Cam looked bad the first three games. If the first 3 games = 2017 Cam, then yeah the offense won't hold much if any value. However, sometimes it just takes a week like week 4 against NE to get an offense on track and to start clicking. 

 

I'm just saying you can't discount nor ignore the targets share Funchess has been getting since the Olsen injury. Even in week 2, he had a respectable 19% target share. 

 

Obviously Funchess isn't going to score 2 TDs every week. But if he can get 7-10 targets/week and turn that into 60-80 yards + chances for TDs in the red zone, he will be worth holding onto. That is worth keeping on the bench and maybe even starting depending on matchup and who else a team has. Not to mention their schedule has eased up quit a bit now and is quite favorable for the next several weeks. 

 

Finally I will say that Cam is looking for Funchess. That is the biggest take away I can take since Olsen is out. The NE game in the 4th quarter with Funchess dealing with cramps, he came back in to help seal the game and Cam looked for him to move them into FG range. Funchess is definitely the type of player I would want as an end of bench stash as he has elite measurables + getting targets + possibility he becomes the team's #1 WR.

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Things going for Funchess this weekend (FULL DISCLOSURE I AM A LIFE LONG LIONS FAN & BELIEVE THEY ARE BEST TEAM IN THE NFL 6 DAYS A WEEK)

1. Panthers offense is beat up (No Olsen)

2. KB has always lived off volume (Has never been a craft WR -- he's just a supreme specimen)

3. Leads us to: KB will probably be blanketed by Slay (Slay and Quin have been dastardly this season)

4. Cam focusing Funchess is in their team's best interest.

5. Funchess is Detroit native

 

Not so great things

1. Cam will probably find success in CMC (Caveat: If Jarrad Davis plays this game, I think CMC's potential impact will be greatly diminished)

2. Cam could just feed KB and challenge Slay to stop him

3. Road game & Lion's Defense has been top 3 this year.

4. Cam's general track record of showing up for big games (Win v. NE) and then ****ting the bed the next week. This isn't always the case, but if you go through his game logs, it is pretty amazing to see how often he puts up 3, 4, 5 TD and no picks and then the following week his ratio ends up at best 1:1. (Again, there is definitely a trend here, but not something I'd pin a thesis on)

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42 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

Funchess shows up on Rotoworld as questionable. WHAT THE BEEP? That's number 7 in my team now!
https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/players/devin-funchess.php

 

Seriously - I cannot find anything else - I assume it's a mouse slip or typo and he's just fine?

 

He practiced in full today and isn't on the injury report. My guess is someone slipped and clicked on him instead of Benjamin. 

 

evbSTIa.png

 

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Not crazy about him season-long, but I like this matchup. Correct me if I'm wrong, I didn't watch the game, but didn't he see success against NE more or less through physicality and bullying his opposing dbacks? Well the only Detroit CB that can counter that type of play from Funchess is Slay and he will undoubtedly be tied up with KB. If they try Nevin Lawson against Devin, he is going to eat and/or draw lots of PI. Now if Detroit decides to counter with safety Miles Killebrew, it will be a different story, but I myself personally like Devin a lot this week. He'll be in my draftkings lineup no doubt and also considering flexing him in 12 team PPR with Smallwood now looking injured. 

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Another solid outing with 18.3 points in PPR leagues. I think he can provide WR2 value ROS. At least until Olsen comes back. Then things might change. Until then he will have WR1 weeks and probably WR3 weeks, but it should equal out to WR2 value. His size and connection with Cam should make him a continued RZ target and keep his upside high. Solid play. Solid late round draft/WW pickup for teams. 

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4 minutes ago, burninglegs said:

Another solid outing with 18.3 points in PPR leagues. I think he can provide WR2 value ROS. At least until Olsen comes back. Then things might change. Until then he will have WR1 weeks and probably WR3 weeks, but it should equal out to WR2 value. His size and connection with Cam should make him a continued RZ target and keep his upside high. Solid play. Solid late round draft/WW pickup for teams. 

I think that might be a slight stretch (I'd call him a high-end WR3, still don't trust the body of work) but it's pretty much right on point. I'm sure his owners are very happy right now, looking at this guy as a fantastic bye week fill-in in plenty of leagues, or as a starter in others.

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- 8 targets today, lead all Panthers players. 

- Averaging 9 targets/game over the last 3 games (since Olsen's week 2 injury).

- Averaging 6/60.3/1 over last 3 games which comes out to 18.1 points per game.

 

If he can maintain 8-10 targets per week + the red zone looks he gets, I think one can favorably look upon him as a WR2. Not to mention the upcoming schedule looks really nice as well. 

 

As an FYI for last season, WR1 in PPR leagues = ~ 15-20 ppg, ~WR2 = 12.6-14.6 ppg, WR3 = ~11.5-12.4. 

 

If he keeps getting around 8-10 targets, that should provide a safe floor of 4-5 receptions and 40-50 yards. Plus whatever redzone looks he gets. Next stretch of games until they face the Vikings is really nice. Not to mention Cam is looking much better in yet another game, this time again a decent Lions defense.

 

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