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Lonzo Ball 2017-2018 Season Outlook


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If y'all need steals be sure to draft LiAngelo next time

Ball's old man will probably spin Lonzo's horrific shooting percentages into something positive.  "Lonzo is revolutionizing the game.  All these guys that came before him made shots.  How damn boring

I got the gimmick down:   He played 40 minutes. Anybody that plays 40 minutes should get those stats.    He passes all the time. Anyone that passes as much as he does should get th

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In terms of fantasy, there is no denying that Ball is one of the best players in terms of court vision and just ability to create on the court in a long time. While I have a few problems with his ability to get off his shot frankly I don't see him being a scorer. That's just not the player he is. Yes, he can hit a shot but he is better off setting up teammates. He can be a very solid fantasy player though. I can see him averaging similar statalent he can push Mark Jackson for that assist record but I very highly doubt it. 

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Lonzo will have games this year that will have people preparing his spot in the NBA Hall of Fame, he will also have games in which he will look like a kid going up against seasoned NBA veterans.  His dad will say something outrageous that will have everyone talking.  But overall I don't see anything performance wise that will make the Lakers and everyone else say that he wasn't worth the second overall pick.

 

Because of playing time and being in a large market he clearly should have a leg up on everyone else for rookie of the year.   

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11 hours ago, ncbobcats said:

Because of playing time and being in a large market he clearly should have a leg up on everyone else for rookie of the year.   

Can Walton be trusted to give him playing time? He held his second-year PG last season to 28.7 mins/game.

 

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1 hour ago, Kaboom said:

Can Walton be trusted to give him playing time? He held his second-year PG last season to 28.7 mins/game.

 

With Russell out of the picture I think that 25-28 minutes a game will be enough to show everyone what he can do. Keep in mind that Clarkson led the team with 29 minutes per game so it's not like Walton plays his guys big minutes. 

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6 hours ago, Kaboom said:

Can Walton be trusted to give him playing time? He held his second-year PG last season to 28.7 mins/game.

 

Definitely learned that Walton's playing time is Pop-like.

Lonzo's gotta earn his minutes like everyone else, so I'm confident in saying owners will be all, "Give him more minutes, wtf" all year. He's an interesting keeper pick but for redraft leagues I'm not so sure I'll be buying for the market price. Maybe if I were to punt FT.

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On 6/28/2017 at 3:10 AM, ncbobcats said:

Lonzo will have games this year that will have people preparing his spot in the NBA Hall of Fame, he will also have games in which he will look like a kid going up against seasoned NBA veterans.  His dad will say something outrageous that will have everyone talking.  But overall I don't see anything performance wise that will make the Lakers and everyone else say that he wasn't worth the second overall pick.

 

Because of playing time and being in a large market he clearly should have a leg up on everyone else for rookie of the year.   

Typically, this is determined by what other picks do. If Tatum, Fox, Issac, etc. hit ceilings and Lonzo doesn't match or exceed their ceilings then people will look back and say it was a bad pick. Hindsight is 20/20 and no one will look back and say the Lakers did good enough with Ball if Fox turns out to be the best PG from the draft. 

 

Lonzo will be a fine player in time. I think he is going to be like 97% of rookies though and won't return value that matches his ADP. Where do people project his ADP at? Top 100? 

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2 hours ago, thezing1 said:

Typically, this is determined by what other picks do. If Tatum, Fox, Issac, etc. hit ceilings and Lonzo doesn't match or exceed their ceilings then people will look back and say it was a bad pick. Hindsight is 20/20 and no one will look back and say the Lakers did good enough with Ball if Fox turns out to be the best PG from the draft. 

 

Lonzo will be a fine player in time. I think he is going to be like 97% of rookies though and won't return value that matches his ADP. Where do people project his ADP at? Top 100? 

 

The problem is, while he plays like a rookie, we will have to listen to his dad tell us how great he is.  Of course, we don't have to listen but that noise will continue to bombard us so occasionally we will hear it even when we try not to.  Once you hear it, you can't unhear it.

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39 minutes ago, mbroo5880i said:

 

The problem is, while he plays like a rookie, we will have to listen to his dad tell us how great he is.  Of course, we don't have to listen but that noise will continue to bombard us so occasionally we will hear it even when we try not to.  Once you hear it, you can't unhear it.

STAY IN YO LANE

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5 hours ago, thezing1 said:

Typically, this is determined by what other picks do. If Tatum, Fox, Issac, etc. hit ceilings and Lonzo doesn't match or exceed their ceilings then people will look back and say it was a bad pick. Hindsight is 20/20 and no one will look back and say the Lakers did good enough with Ball if Fox turns out to be the best PG from the draft.

 

The biggest reason for success or failure of rookies is fit, this is why best player available is a bad way to draft.    

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10 minutes ago, ncbobcats said:

 

The biggest reason for success or failure of rookies is fit, this is why best player available is a bad way to draft.    

I don't understand. Are you saying fit for their rookie year? Or fit overall for let's say their rookie contract? We're you talking about just his rookie year in your original post?

I think I understand your argument about fit over best player available, but Fox, Smith, Ball, Fultz all play the same position and will all be compared throughout their careers. 

Either way, I just want to get to summer league so we can actually see Lonzo perform at his job and not just see him as a silent promoter of a brand. 

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18 minutes ago, RedRaider27 said:

My early prediction for his #'s: 10 PPG, 3 REB, 5.5 AST, 41% from the field, 68% from the line 

He shot about .500 why do you think he'd drop that low? And don't say it's because of his shot. He's a smart player that picks his spots.

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15 minutes ago, Slickthenick said:

He shot about .500 why do you think he'd drop that low? And don't say it's because of his shot. He's a smart player that picks his spots.

Usually rookies don't shoot great and take great shots. I can see him settling for 3s, contested jump shots, etc. I just don't see his % being great. Maybe I'm wrong, but I think he's more likely to shoot 41% than 51%.

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44 minutes ago, RedRaider27 said:

My early prediction for his #'s: 10 PPG, 3 REB, 5.5 AST, 41% from the field, 68% from the line 

 

Wow that's really pessimistic. I'm expecting him to do much better than that. 13/4.5/7, 44% fg

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29 minutes ago, thezing1 said:

I don't understand. Are you saying fit for their rookie year? Or fit overall for let's say their rookie contract?

 

In this context I'm talking about team style of play.  Perfect example is the Knicks drafted Frank Ntilikina because Phil Jackson thinks that it's the 90's and the triangle offense still works.  Now with Jackson gone, New York will go in a different direction, however they drafted Ntilikina because he would have fit playing in the triangle.

 

Now will he fit with the new style? Does the Knicks have the players to run any thing that is close to efficient?  All of this affects Frank's chances for rookie of the year.

 

1 hour ago, thezing1 said:

Fox, Smith, Ball, Fultz all play the same position and will all be compared throughout their careers.

 

I'm only talking about rookie year.    

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32 minutes ago, LuSamSiam said:

 

Wow that's really pessimistic. I'm expecting him to do much better than that. 13/4.5/7, 44% fg

7 assists for a rookie is high. The great Magic Johnson who drafted him barely averaged 7 assists his rookie year and Ball isn't Magic. 13 points I can see, rebounds and FG % are still a little high for me too.

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1 hour ago, RedRaider27 said:

My early prediction for his #'s: 10 PPG, 3 REB, 5.5 AST, 41% from the field, 68% from the line 

 

55 minutes ago, Slickthenick said:

He shot about .500 why do you think he'd drop that low? And don't say it's because of his shot. He's a smart player that picks his spots.

He shot 55.1% with a 67% eFG, which is kind of insane. 73% 2P as well, which isn't that bad either.

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46 minutes ago, RedRaider27 said:

Usually rookies don't shoot great and take great shots. I can see him settling for 3s, contested jump shots, etc. I just don't see his % being great. Maybe I'm wrong, but I think he's more likely to shoot 41% than 51%.

Ball doesn't shoot jumpers unless it's a 3.

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Compared to some other college freshmen:

 

LB_zpsi9d1frqg.png

 

He also had less TO's and more assists than any of those dudes. He's super efficient, so the 41% FG predicted above seems a little light. 

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