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July Closer Thread 2017


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3 hours ago, JFS179 said:

 

Givens is a dude, but you need 2-3 guys ahead of him to be traded.  To me that seems somewhat unlikely, though Baltimore should be selling.  

 

I think Britton, Brach, and O'Day have to go to get Givens a shot.

Right, i thought they said all of them were on the block, didn't know. 

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5 minutes ago, cdd10 said:

Right, i thought they said all of them were on the block, didn't know. 

Pretty much everyone in Baltimore including Givens no doubt is "on the block" in Baltimore right now.  But being on the block means nothing.  Being traded, that is what counts.

I seriously doubt all three above Givens get traded.  There are too many other relievers being dangled on other teams as well right now and Seattle and the Yankees seem done shopping.  Maybe Washington too though they shouldn't be.

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38 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Pretty much everyone in Baltimore including Givens no doubt is "on the block" in Baltimore right now.  But being on the block means nothing.  Being traded, that is what counts.

I seriously doubt all three above Givens get traded.  There are too many other relievers being dangled on other teams as well right now and Seattle and the Yankees seem done shopping.  Maybe Washington too though they shouldn't be.

 

Actually, Rosenthal has said Givens is one of the "off limits" guys in trade talk

 

https://www.facebook.com/kenrosenthalsports/posts/1450736548325405

 

Quote

The Orioles are not willing to listen on center fielder Adam Jones and third baseman Manny Machado, sources say – Machado, a potential free agent after next season, is batting only .234, perhaps diminishing his value. They also do not intend to trade reliever Mychal Givens, who is drawing interest but is under club control through 2021.

 

Edited by jamesisharden
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4 hours ago, jamesisharden said:

Actually, Rosenthal has said Givens is one of the "off limits" guys in trade talk

https://www.facebook.com/kenrosenthalsports/posts/1450736548325405

 

Good to know but I'm sure if a team made the O's an offer they couldn't refuse they would change their mind.  (And not listening to any offers on Adam Jones is beyond stupid.  You trade him now or forget ever getting any value back from him in the future).

Is Dan Duquette (sp?) still the GM in Baltimore btw?

Edited by The Big Bat Theory
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6 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Good to know but I'm sure if a team made the O's an offer they couldn't refuse they would change their mind.  (And not listening to any offers on Adam Jones is beyond stupid.  You trade him now or forget ever getting any value back from him in the future).

Is Dan Duquette (sp?) still the GM in Baltimore btw?

 

Yes it's Duquette still.

 

As an O's fan, it'd be shocking to see Jones traded. He's one you try to have retire an Oriole. The fans would revolt. This is not a full rebuild.

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IMO, now is the time to jump into the trade deadline stashing.  Others may advocate for earlier, but it's SO hard to predict that I don't like wasting roster spots until the landscape gets clear.  Everyone stashing Kahnle, for example, is probably pretty annoyed right now.

 

Speculation Plays (not necessarily in order):

 

Vizcaino (ATL) -- With Jaime Garcia close to being traded, it's the clearest sign yet that Atlanta is selling.  If Vizcaino is still available, I'd grab him.  Jim Johnson seems highly likely to be pitching elsewhere, IMO.

 

Rondon (DET) -- It's not completely clear who would close if Wilson goes, but I think it's likely Rondon as he seems to be pitching the 8th ahead of Wilson most frequently.  As I mentioned yesterday, he's given up runs in only 1 game since he was recalled (the 3 ER .2 IP outing).  Otherwise he's posting zeroes.  The K-rate is great; the BB-rate is less than ideal.  We take what we can get, obviously.

 

Paul Sewald (NYM) -- I think Reed is as good as gone given the Mets situation and interest in Reed.  Familia is theoretically throwing again, but who knows when he'll actually return to the mound.  Sewald again doesn't have the prettiest numbers, but the K-rate is nice, and he's getting most of the 8th inning work.  Blevins has some 8th inning work, but he's primarily a LOOGY and has been exposed as they've used him more.

 

Barraclough (MIA) -- You're betting on someone taking Ramos as well, but Phelps out of the way clears up the succession path.  Barraclough and Phelps have shared the 7/8 ahead of Ramos for the past few weeks.  Fair bet Miami continues to sell.

 

Givens (BAL) -- More of a long shot as you need two guys to go, but there's a lot of smoke around Britton.  Brach also needs to be dealt, but Brach is probably just as good or better than other trade guys like Reed or Ramos or Johnson.  I'm not 100% sure Givens would close over O'Day, but I think it's a fair bet.  Heck, O'Day could be traded too.

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18 hours ago, Hangry Bird said:

 

No worries.  I should've cited his post, it was pretty funny, to me anyway, because it's true. TEX STL & WASH been nothing short of maddening for closer vultures this year lol...

 

Big Bat Theory

No Rosenthal won't end up the StL closer.  Not long term anyway.  He always finds a way to mess himself up.  (He must also lead these closer threads in predictions at his promotion each and every single month this season.  We are up to the boy who cried wolf status on him at this point).  Whatever he has recently "fixed" in his delivery will go all wonky within weeks.  It always does.  At which point Oh will be suddenly pitching well again and they flip flop again.  Second option, Cecil sneaks in and implodes like he did in Toronto.  Sane option, Cards go get Dave Robertson.

 

He's a Yankee now.  It's no longer an option.

 

Cards may acquire someone else though.

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1 minute ago, Bullys said:

Im still holding hope Madson takes over in DC

Lots of possibilities still. Only saw one save, and it was prime for a LHP. Madson getting the majority saves still an option, Doolittle running away with it is an option,and WAS acquiring another RP to close is still an option. Agree he's a hold though as of now. 

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We almost made it through July without having to repost the PSA, and yet ... the thread is starting to devolve again, especially related to personal opinions on league settings and punting categories.  No one cares.

 

One more time ...

 

Consider this a reminder of the forum rules, best practices for the thread, and a reminder to be sure you're complying with the Code of Conduct.

 

1) Bench coach questions belong in the Bench Coach Forum.  It's really not that hard ... if you're asking should I drop this guy for that guy, it's Bench Coach material.  Here's the link: Bench Coach Forum.

 

2) No one cares about your team.  In fact, we couldn't possibly care any less about whether or not you own 15 closers or none.  We don't care if you own the guy that just got smoked in a non-save situation, and we don't care if you're celebrating owning the next newly minted closer.  It's all Cool Story Bro, and there's a 2017 Cool Story Bro thread just for that.

 

3) We're more than halfway into the season now.  The time for discussion of league strategies has passed.  Questions about punting saves being viable aren't applicable anymore -- they were applicable in draft season.

 

4) League Settings discussions can go elsewhere too.  Just because it's a closer's thread doesn't mean it's the place to discuss the viability of Holds as a category, or whether your league should be Saves + Holds, or whether Saves + Holds is better than Saves, or whether Net Saves should be the category of choice instead of just Saves.  Take it to the ... wait for it ... 2017 Commissioner / League Rules / League Drama thread for further discussion.

 

5) Don't be a lazy bum.  Don't be that guy that just shows up, posts your question, and expects an answer.  Don't be the guy that can't be bothered to read the discussion.  Again, a best practice is to click the red dot/star to the left of a thread title, which takes you automatically to the last post you read.  Some nights are busy in here, so that might mean you're 5 pages behind.  Maybe you're 10 behind ... do the work.  Life doesn't reward the lazy, and neither does fantasy baseball.  Also, catch up on the whole damn thread before posting.  There's nothing worse than quoting some asinine comment from 15 hours ago and taking the entire thread down a rabbit hole all over again.  Catch up, then go back and comment if you'd like, but the stream of consciousness posts aren't needed.  

 

As for the rest of you that aren't asking the lazy questions and are complying with the rules above... don't goad the guys that aren't following the best practices.  Snarky responses also clutter the thread and lead to back-and-forth discussions that take us way, way off topic.  Report the post.  A moderator will handle it.

 

Finally, if you're drunk ... go sober up elsewhere.  Don't get your jollies from cluttering up a thread the rest of us are trying to enjoy and digest for useful information. 

 

Carry on ...

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13 minutes ago, Stutin said:

Im thinking of dropping Dyson. His past few games have been bad, his whip is rising fast, and SF hardly wins games.

Is anyone else holding on to him? I think a bad blown save is looming

 

Every league is different.  In mine, guys getting saves don't get dropped.  Guys who might get saves in the future are mostly already owned.

 

I own Dyson across all my leagues because no one wanted him when Melancon went down, but I'm not sure Melancon is returning this year ... and I think Dyson has some leash.  Bad teams get saves too.  Firmly holding.

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Did Doolittle only get the first Save because of the matchups against the Angels that night? I picked him up but am thinking of dropping for Kela who I'm still holding in a DL slot. Additionally, will Kela be trusted to pitch in Save oppos right away?

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14 minutes ago, Olliemets said:

Did Doolittle only get the first Save because of the matchups against the Angels that night? I picked him up but am thinking of dropping for Kela who I'm still holding in a DL slot. Additionally, will Kela be trusted to pitch in Save oppos right away?

 

With WAS I don't think Doolittle is durable enough to be  regular closer.  He is death against left handed batters and will likely be a situational pitcher.  Washington almost surely will trade for another reliever.  

 

I will say I am biased with owning Kela but his peripheral numbers are strong and a lot of people on this forum are obsessed with them.

Edited by B&F
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29 minutes ago, Stutin said:

Im thinking of dropping Dyson. His past few games have been bad, his whip is rising fast, and SF hardly wins games.

Is anyone else holding on to him? I think a bad blown save is looming

 

Not that I've watched him pitch recently but he's given up 1 ER in his last 9 appearances, 11.2 innings. Now, you may very well be right.  There's always risk of a Dyson blow up. But I don't think there's any more risk today than there was last week.

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44 minutes ago, JFS179 said:

 

Every league is different.  In mine, guys getting saves don't get dropped.  Guys who might get saves in the future are mostly already owned.

 

I own Dyson across all my leagues because no one wanted him when Melancon went down, but I'm not sure Melancon is returning this year ... and I think Dyson has some leash.  Bad teams get saves too.  Firmly holding.

 

Just curious if your basing this on anything in particular (besides the general injury/team record concerns).

 

I saw the article saying hes not close to returning from a few days ago. http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/07/14/giants-notes-right-hander-mark-melancon-isnt-close-to-returning/

Edited by jamesisharden
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I had Dyson but dropped him for Rosenthal (who then decided to shat the bed).  I'm thinking of picking him back up again but he just doesn't strike out enough guys for me to be confident in him.  Saves are saves but he's a couple of seeing eye singles or errors from giving up 3 or 4 runs in an inning.  

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26 minutes ago, Bill Blazejowski said:

I had Dyson but dropped him for Rosenthal (who then decided to shat the bed).  I'm thinking of picking him back up again but he just doesn't strike out enough guys for me to be confident in him.  Saves are saves but he's a couple of seeing eye singles or errors from giving up 3 or 4 runs in an inning.  

 

that is my fear. he is getting about 1-2 saves a week.

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1 hour ago, jamesisharden said:

 

Just curious if your basing this on anything in particular (besides the general injury/team record concerns).

 

I saw the article saying hes not close to returning from a few days ago. http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/07/14/giants-notes-right-hander-mark-melancon-isnt-close-to-returning/

 

Melancon and Dyson owner and I put Melancon returning this season at about 10% based on the injured, returned briefly, pitched eh, injured again, no time table, no positive news, team going no where, expensive long term contract to consider.

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15 minutes ago, ASHLANDARROWS1992 said:

quite a handful of teams interested in j.wilson, gotta figure he is on his way out of town....so who is everyones money on?

 

rondon or greene

A few of us have weighed in based on usage. Hard to read the tea leaves here. And really no clue for those of us who live here. 

Usage has changed a little and, as people have pointed out, Rondon has been better since being called up. Maybe they see him as "closer of the future"? 

I was on Greene 3-4 days ago, but today I might say:

Rondon - 65%

Greene- 35%

 

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20 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

A few of us have weighed in based on usage. Hard to read the tea leaves here. And really no clue for those of us who live here. 

Usage has changed a little and, as people have pointed out, Rondon has been better since being called up. Maybe they see him as "closer of the future"? 

I was on Greene 3-4 days ago, but today I might say:

Rondon - 65%

Greene- 35%

 

 

small sample sizes for sure...

 

for about the last 30 days, since rondon got the recall, he has been better...

but over the last 15 days, greene has been better

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