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Dennis Smith Jr. 2017-2018 Season Outlook


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Oh wow. This is what upside feels like. 

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59 minutes ago, durel_arroyo said:

With Dennis Smith most probably taking the point guard spot at the start of the season, what round do you guys think he should be drafted? Any realistic stat projections for his first year?

The guy is being drafted as early as 5th, normally at 6th and 7th. I'd probably take him at 6th if I lack PGs.

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1 hour ago, durel_arroyo said:

With Dennis Smith most probably taking the point guard spot at the start of the season, what round do you guys think he should be drafted? Any realistic stat projections for his first year?

Looking at his BBM projection, he's undraftable in standard leagues. 

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49 minutes ago, Kaboom said:

Looking at his BBM projection, he's undraftable in standard leagues. 

I put very little stock in BBM's projections since the original creators left. I respect their effort, and everyone that takes the time to provide content, but to me it is just some dudes' guess as to what will happen put in an excel spreadsheet to make it look more scientific. Using their format and tweaking their projections to make them your own is the optimal way to use that site, IMO. 

 

That said, DSJ definitely looks beastly, but he is going to have flaws to his game. In general I seem to not own rookies because I take pretty conservative approaches to their projections. Sure, I miss out on the KATs in redraft leagues, but I think you come out ahead being conservative. I think DSJ is a fantastic dynasty target and I think he has some massive games this year, but I also worry about Carlisle, inconsistency, and the inevitable 4 for 19 shooting games. I think he needs to fit a pretty specific build.

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16 minutes ago, thezing1 said:

I put very little stock in BBM's projections since the original creators left. I respect their effort, and everyone that takes the time to provide content, but to me it is just some dudes' guess as to what will happen put in an excel spreadsheet to make it look more scientific. Using their format and tweaking their projections to make them your own is the optimal way to use that site, IMO. 

 

That said, DSJ definitely looks beastly, but he is going to have flaws to his game. In general I seem to not own rookies because I take pretty conservative approaches to their projections. Sure, I miss out on the KATs in redraft leagues, but I think you come out ahead being conservative. I think DSJ is a fantastic dynasty target and I think he has some massive games this year, but I also worry about Carlisle, inconsistency, and the inevitable 4 for 19 shooting games. I think he needs to fit a pretty specific build.

 

I agree with the latter part of this post. Probably won't end up with him at all in redrafts (people are going to reach for him), but in dynasty leagues he could possibly have the highest ceiling in this entire rookie class.

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3 minutes ago, Stallion said:

 

I agree with the latter part of this post. Probably won't end up with him at all in redrafts (people are going to reach for him), but in dynasty leagues he could possibly have the highest ceiling in this entire rookie class.

I really debated posting the first part of that post. I don't want to come across as a basher. I truly like what BBM has provided and have been a customer in the past. The creators were ahead of the curve back in the day.  I don't know what BBM uses as inputs for their model so I should not speak up about it's quality. Respect to BBM, but more respect to people that tweak projections based on their personal beliefs. 

 

Agreed on DSJ and dynasty. If I had the first pick in my 8 cat dynasty I would have taken DSJ. I highly value ceiling in dynasty drafts though. 

 

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30 minutes ago, thezing1 said:

I put very little stock in BBM's projections since the original creators left. I respect their effort, and everyone that takes the time to provide content, but to me it is just some dudes' guess as to what will happen put in an excel spreadsheet to make it look more scientific. Using their format and tweaking their projections to make them your own is the optimal way to use that site, IMO. 

Agreed, the best thing about BBM is the ability to adjust projections you don't agree with.

 

They have DSJ's %'s and TO's enough of a negative drag to take him out of the standard league conversation. Not too unreasonable I guess for a rookie's projections for redraft league purposes, but they're adjustable if you want.

 

In the end, doesn't our entire pastime revolve around dudes guessing how well other dudes will play basketball? :lol:  

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1 minute ago, Kaboom said:

Agreed, the best thing about BBM is the ability to adjust projections you don't agree with.

 

They have DSJ's %'s and TO's enough of a negative drag to take him out of the standard league conversation. Not too unreasonable I guess for a rookie's projections for redraft league purposes, but they're adjustable if you want.

 

In the end, doesn't our entire pastime revolve around dudes guessing how well other dudes will play basketball? :lol:  

100%. That is why I feel bad about my first post because I do respect people putting themselves out there by expressing their opinion. Now I am going to go buy it for the season to show support to content creators. 

 

You just need to build around DSJ. I love his potential, but I do not think this is a KAT like rookie. KAT was so balanced that even if he wasn't dominant he wasn't going to hurt you. DSJ can have a positive impact on teams that build around his flaws, but the 5-6 round seems too early to me. I play 8 cat roto and even without TO's in the equation he isn't on my radar in that range. 

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Jumping on the DSJ bandwagon! Got him 6th round in a 16 team league. Carlisle already said he's going to start. His %s won't be pretty but the counting stats should be there. Plus more likely he's going to beast as the season progresses. If your team can handle a % hit, he's looking like a fine target in the 6 to 8 range. I'm seeing a Lillard type rookie season in terms of minutes, though im hoping the counting stats at least will be comparable as well.

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So anyone who can give a more realistic stat projection? Haven't seen enough clips of him during his college games and summer league but I know that he is uber athletic, a great defender and has a lot of opportunity in his first year and I am interested in jumping on the DSJ bandwagon (at the right round). But at the back of my mind, he can become a Kemba Walker or another Mudjay.

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On 9/25/2017 at 9:40 PM, thezing1 said:

I really debated posting the first part of that post. I don't want to come across as a basher. I truly like what BBM has provided and have been a customer in the past. The creators were ahead of the curve back in the day.  I don't know what BBM uses as inputs for their model so I should not speak up about it's quality. Respect to BBM, but more respect to people that tweak projections based on their personal beliefs.

It's simply a fact. BBM is a far cry from what it was 3 years ago in Justin and Matt's day. I think Josh still posts here and BBM is great now, but the projections have fallen off.

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2 hours ago, miasma16 said:

It's simply a fact. BBM is a far cry from what it was 3 years ago in Justin and Matt's day. I think Josh still posts here and BBM is great now, but the projections have fallen off.

 

Meh it's been pretty great for me lately.  I disagree with many projections but usually because I think they are a bit too conservative for my liking. That's just a subjective opinion.  In terms of rookies, those guys are fairly clear that, while their projections are low, they acknowledge the relatively higher upside on those guys and would recommend taking a flyer on one of them over someone who may be ranked higher with a much lower ceiling.  

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2 minutes ago, Lakers_Fan2 said:

 

Meh it's been pretty great for me lately.  I disagree with many projections but usually because I think they are a bit too conservative for my liking. That's just a subjective opinion.  In terms of rookies, those guys are fairly clear that, while their projections are low, they acknowledge the relatively higher upside on those guys and would recommend taking a flyer on one of them over someone who may be ranked higher with a much lower ceiling.  

 

I agree with you and others about the sites usefulness. I can't speak on the accuracy of the projections compared with before since I'm a relatively new member. But one thing I have noticed here and other fantasy sites (that I think BBM gets right) is the emphatuation with rankings. To me a simple ranking from 1-150 is completely useless, especially if its rankings are arbitrary (looking at you Bruski). What is much more useful is actual stat line projections, and then letting the rankings work themselves out - exactly what BBM does. Otherwise it is pointless to rank DJ in relation to CJ McCollum, for example. Plus, the second you no longer care for CJs free throw shooting, the list changes completely and DJ would jump. The way BBM allows dynamic ranking is great. #ad

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19 minutes ago, jay14bay said:

 

I agree with you and others about the sites usefulness. I can't speak on the accuracy of the projections compared with before since I'm a relatively new member. But one thing I have noticed here and other fantasy sites (that I think BBM gets right) is the emphatuation with rankings. To me a simple ranking from 1-150 is completely useless, especially if its rankings are arbitrary (looking at you Bruski). What is much more useful is actual stat line projections, and then letting the rankings work themselves out - exactly what BBM does. Otherwise it is pointless to rank DJ in relation to CJ McCollum, for example. Plus, the second you no longer care for CJs free throw shooting, the list changes completely and DJ would jump. The way BBM allows dynamic ranking is great. #ad

 

Absolutely.  Aggregate rankings are only barely useful when comparing players unless its a pts league. 

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I was fortunate to have him land at #68 for me because my next pick after my keepers is #93, and I like this kid over Fultz.  Fultz seems more like a wild card, but this one here, he reminds me a LOT of Lillard for some reason, similar build, look, aggressiveness, quiet cockiness, spring, huge range, and might even be a better passer than Lillard... just FT's might not be as good.

Lillard rookie year when I drafted him, bec I thought he was special too, just like D-Rose's rookie year:

 

19 pts/ 6.5 ast / 3 reb / .430/.844 / 0.9 stl / 2.3 3's

Anywhere near that I'd be happy... I think less than that but you never know, from what I seen so far, there is no reason physically he cant do the same.

Anyone else watch him so far in the pre-season?

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