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Jonathon Isaac 2017-2018 Season Outlook


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The Magic are going to let this kid feast, and he is going to take advantage of that opportunity.  As a SF, in that line up, and Fournier hurt, we're looking at   PG: Payton SG: Simmons

They played 3 in 4 with a B2B Friday/Saturday. Sunday was probably a rest day. They probably practiced today and won't have an update until tomorrow because it is all about how injured players respond

This is a bad take.

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I haven't watched the Magic much so I don't follow their rotations aside from the recent lineup change and that is old news with Ross on the shelf for a while. What are thoughts on Issac playing the 3 and the 4 depending on lineups? Has he played the 3 much this year? Everyone has commented on his defense and how they have missed it during the losing streak so they miss what he does. Is it a stretch to think he might carve out 28-32 mpg once fully healthy with Ross on the shelf as a 6th man type? His game is very fantasy friendly and I am not questioning his upside. I am just wondering what the path to minutes looks like based on the rest of the roster. Minutes will determine whether he captures upside or not. 

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Seeing so far that he has logged 96% of his playing time at PF (https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/i/isaacjo01.html scroll to middle look for Play-by-Play) I think that's where Vogel primarily play him. He should get at least 15 minutes a game at least just by backing up Aaron Gordon, so it really depends on how comfortable Vogel feels playing Gordon and Isaac together. 

 

So far this season, Gordon and Isaac have played 53 minutes together in 9 games ( https://stats.nba.com/lineups/advanced/?Season=2017-18&SeasonType=Regular Season&GroupQuantity=2&TeamID=1610612753&sort=MIN&dir=1 ). The Magic is -1.1 net rating in those minutes. During those times Magic became a shutdown defensive team (97.3 points defensive rating) but also a horrendous offensive team (96.2 offensive rating). 

 

What does this mean? I think Isaac has a chance to get closer to 28 minutes a game than 20 minutes, because Vogel is a defensive coach. Even though their method isn't always ideal, Orlando has at least shown to be a franchise that's willing to develop its young players: giving Payton extended minutes despite lack of shooting, playing Gordon at SF to see if his handle/shooting can improve enough, etc. 

 

The question now becomes what you think Isaac can do in about 25-28 minutes of playing time. I don't expect a full on offensive blowup because there are still 4 mouths to feed in front of him. Most like you will see something like 8 points, 6 rebounds, 1 steal, and 1.5 blocks this season - basically a Aminu or MKG type of production level. 

 

Next year though... 

 

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5 minutes ago, bballshinobi said:

Seeing so far that he has logged 96% of his playing time at PF (https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/i/isaacjo01.html scroll to middle look for Play-by-Play) I think that's where Vogel primarily play him. He should get at least 15 minutes a game at least just by backing up Aaron Gordon, so it really depends on how comfortable Vogel feels playing Gordon and Isaac together. 

 

So far this season, Gordon and Isaac have played 53 minutes together in 9 games ( https://stats.nba.com/lineups/advanced/?Season=2017-18&SeasonType=Regular Season&GroupQuantity=2&TeamID=1610612753&sort=MIN&dir=1 ). The Magic is -1.1 net rating in those minutes. During those times Magic became a shutdown defensive team (97.3 points defensive rating) but also a horrendous offensive team (96.2 offensive rating). 

 

What does this mean? I think Isaac has a chance to get closer to 28 minutes a game than 20 minutes, because Vogel is a defensive coach. Even though their method isn't always ideal, Orlando has at least shown to be a franchise that's willing to develop its young players: giving Payton extended minutes despite lack of shooting, playing Gordon at SF to see if his handle/shooting can improve enough, etc. 

 

The question now becomes what you think Isaac can do in about 25-28 minutes of playing time. I don't expect a full on offensive blowup because there are still 4 mouths to feed in front of him. Most like you will see something like 8 points, 6 rebounds, 1 steal, and 1.5 blocks this season - basically a Aminu or MKG type of production level. 

 

Next year though... 

 

 

agree with everything, magic fan so watch the games whenever they are on in my area

 

youll be lucky to get 9-10 ppg so be happy with 8 ppg, should get minutes between 25-30 per night with ross out no question about it, will get easily 1.5 blocks per from here out, steals will be at least 1 per, and with treys itll be very streaky but  i would guesstimate around .6 with .8 treys being the optimistic side, boards will be around 6 a game 

 

my projections with ross out based off of just knowledge accumulated from watching and reading up on the team etc. so take it for what its worth haha

 

and dynasty/keepers get himmmmmmm

 

(adding him in my 12 teamer with 3 bench spots FWIW)

Edited by kmoore1521
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With Ross now being out indefinitely, Isaac when he returns should have an open door to earning PT. It might not be given, but many think he will inevitably earn it. He was the star and cover boy in today's roundtable. I added him for MKG who I am tired of patiently waiting for to blow up. In my 9-cat roto league [ED: 12 teams], it's better to stash long-term potential on the six man bench (no IR) than it is to keep waiting for a borderline efficiency/stocks guy like MKG to eventually blossom. Plus, as a FA add, he can be kept in 16th then 15th round the next two years, so if he lights it up it's a windfall.

Edited by rando
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9 minutes ago, rando said:

With Ross now being out indefinitely, Isaac when he returns should have an open door to earning PT. It might not be given, but many think he will inevitably earn it. He was the star and cover boy in today's roundtable. I added him for MKG who I am tired of patiently waiting for to blow up. In my 9-cat roto league [ED: 12 teams], it's better to stash long-term potential on the six man bench (no IR) than it is to keep waiting for a borderline efficiency/stocks guy like MKG to eventually blossom. Plus, as a FA add, he can be kept in 16th then 15th round the next two years, so if he lights it up it's a windfall.

Should be easy to earn. The Magic are not good enough to do anything in the playoffs so they might as well try to play Isaac for experience. The next players in the pecking order at the 3 or 4 are Affalo & Hezonja and Speights... yuck no thanks.

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I'm trying to convince myself we'll something similar to Myles Turner 2 years ago. Started slow, missed many games due to injury, came back and slowly became a stud for second half of the season. Same stocks upside although different position. I just hope the Magic give up any hopes for playoffs and go full tank mode. No Afflalo over Isaac please!

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On 11/24/2017 at 8:34 AM, DoctorLove said:

As soon as he starts getting consistent minutes in the 20-25 minute range, I’m scooping him. That block potential is too good to leave on the wire

Scoop him up now before it's too late! Ross is out for a while, more minutes will open up for him!

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1 minute ago, RipCity0 said:

I'm trying to convince myself we'll something similar to Myles Turner 2 years ago. Started slow, missed many games due to injury, came back and slowly became a stud for second half of the season. Same stocks upside although different position. I just hope the Magic give up any hopes for playoffs and go full tank mode. No Afflalo over Isaac please!

 

I think it's best not to expect a miracle. I wouldn't expect too much offense. Cases like Myles Turner, Whiteside, and Gobert who were defensive studs that also became serviceable offensively in the same year are rare. Guys like those are usually the primary roll man in the pick & roll action in today's modern offense so they basically get a chance to have a shot every possession. Wing players, which Isaac still is at this point of his career, are at the mercy of the point guard. A lot of times they just end up standing at the 3pt line spacing the floor for the P&R option.

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29 minutes ago, bballshinobi said:

 

I think it's best not to expect a miracle. I wouldn't expect too much offense. Cases like Myles Turner, Whiteside, and Gobert who were defensive studs that also became serviceable offensively in the same year are rare. Guys like those are usually the primary roll man in the pick & roll action in today's modern offense so they basically get a chance to have a shot every possession. Wing players, which Isaac still is at this point of his career, are at the mercy of the point guard. A lot of times they just end up standing at the 3pt line spacing the floor for the P&R option.

I think 8/5/2 with 1 steal, 2 blocks is reasonable. With how scarce blocks are, he's worth an add. He'll get around 25 minutes a game. And that PG is Elfrid Payton, who averages nearly 10 assists per game. He'll get his share of looks on offense as well, but it's the defense you're adding him for. 

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2 minutes ago, trusthaprocess said:

I think 8/5/2 with 1 steal, 2 blocks is reasonable. With how scarce blocks are, he's worth an add. He'll get around 25 minutes a game. And that PG is Elfrid Payton, who averages nearly 10 assists per game. He'll get his share of looks on offense as well, but it's the defense you're adding him for. 

Last I checked, Payton has sat in the 6.4-6.7 assist range for his entire career. I guess if you round up you can call it "nearly" 10 per game.

Do you know how many players that qualify have 2 blocks per game. 2. Not 2 like the number of blocks. I mean two players. Porzingis and KD. Sure, Turner will be there shortly and I expect a healthy Whiteside to get there, but 2 blocks is a huge threshold that not many guys get to these days. 

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6 minutes ago, thezing1 said:

Last I checked, Payton has sat in the 6.4-6.7 assist range for his entire career. I guess if you round up you can call it "nearly" 10 per game.

Do you know how many players that qualify have 2 blocks per game. 2. Not 2 like the number of blocks. I mean two players. Porzingis and KD. Sure, Turner will be there shortly and I expect a healthy Whiteside to get there, but 2 blocks is a huge threshold that not many guys get to these days. 

OK, not 10, but he's gotten more than that twice already this year. He gets assists. And true, 2 blocks is difficult, but he had 1.7 blocks per game in November before going down in limited minutes. If he gets more minutes, he has a chance to at least match that total. 

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1 hour ago, bballshinobi said:

Seeing so far that he has logged 96% of his playing time at PF (https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/i/isaacjo01.html scroll to middle look for Play-by-Play) I think that's where Vogel primarily play him. He should get at least 15 minutes a game at least just by backing up Aaron Gordon, so it really depends on how comfortable Vogel feels playing Gordon and Isaac together. 

 

So far this season, Gordon and Isaac have played 53 minutes together in 9 games ( https://stats.nba.com/lineups/advanced/?Season=2017-18&SeasonType=Regular Season&GroupQuantity=2&TeamID=1610612753&sort=MIN&dir=1 ). The Magic is -1.1 net rating in those minutes. During those times Magic became a shutdown defensive team (97.3 points defensive rating) but also a horrendous offensive team (96.2 offensive rating). 

 

What does this mean? I think Isaac has a chance to get closer to 28 minutes a game than 20 minutes, because Vogel is a defensive coach. Even though their method isn't always ideal, Orlando has at least shown to be a franchise that's willing to develop its young players: giving Payton extended minutes despite lack of shooting, playing Gordon at SF to see if his handle/shooting can improve enough, etc. 

 

The question now becomes what you think Isaac can do in about 25-28 minutes of playing time. I don't expect a full on offensive blowup because there are still 4 mouths to feed in front of him. Most like you will see something like 8 points, 6 rebounds, 1 steal, and 1.5 blocks this season - basically a Aminu or MKG type of production level. 

 

Next year though... 

 

Thanks for this info! Much appreciated. 

In terms of context, the minutes and games he played with Gordon overlapped with Payton sitting out with injury and I think that had a lot to do with the offense. In 14 minutes with Payton the offensive rating is 119. Obviously these sample sets are miniature and not nearly enough to draw conclusions from.

Thanks also to @kmoore1521 for your post. Seems like the posts are going towards projections with stat lines and comps. I guess I was trying to figure out what that path to 28ish minutes looks like because the fantasy friendly game is there, the skill set is there, the team environment (rebuilding/bad team) is there. But 20 minutes means he needs an injury to occur before he can be played and 28+ minutes means he is playable regardless, because I do agree with a toned down stocks version of the @trusthaprocess projections. 

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2 minutes ago, trusthaprocess said:

OK, not 10, but he's gotten more than that twice already this year. He gets assists. And true, 2 blocks is difficult, but he had 1.7 blocks per game in November before going down in limited minutes. If he gets more minutes, he has a chance to at least match that total. 

I hear ya man. We all get excited and the numbers are easy to "round up" when projecting without realizing how rare they actually are. I just wanted to put a little context to the stocks. But I do think his game is super fantasy friendly so it is worth it to be patient with him. 

 

Personally, I try to remove emotion, stay realistic, and watch games to gather info. We need to see Vogel's rotations. We need to give it at least 10 days before we can assume there isn't a minutes limit on him. Watching rotations without bias will allow us to see what minutes Isaac might get. It is going to require a ton of patience to get through the next 2 weeks though. If you go into the next couple weeks expecting immediate returns you will be disappointed. 

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