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Kareem Hunt 2017 Outlook


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Thanks for my new team picture!

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Something about him and his running style seems off.  He seems to lack really good acceleration after making his shifty moves, like he's stuck in tar sometimes.  Kind of like how bigger, taller, and slower power backs typically look when running.

 

He looks like he's 5'9", but apparently is either 5'10" or 5'11".  He's got a decent amount of weight, but is far more elusive than a power runner.

 

I can't tell if he's just barely good enough to hold onto the lead gig all season, or just underwhelming enough athletically that a dark horse like a rejuvenated CJ Spiller could force a change of reins by the second half of the season.

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12 hours ago, Rolling Thunder said:

I know Hunt is just a baby, so maybe he's  been running cautiously, but Ware looked like a better runner to me.  I hope there is more to Hunt than he's shown because I just hitched my wagon to him tonight in a 12 team PPR.  

 

To be honest, reminds me of how Devonta Freeman ran timidly his first season in the NFL, behind Steven Jackson.  It was captured during the preseason Hard Knocks episode where Freeman ran back to the sideline to complain to SJax about the defender grabbing onto him while he was running his route, and SJax just laughed and was like "Welcome to the NFL!"

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1 hour ago, Robrain said:

Something about him and his running style seems off.  He seems to lack really good acceleration after making his shifty moves, like he's stuck in tar sometimes.  Kind of like how bigger, taller, and slower power backs typically look when running.

 

He looks like he's 5'9", but apparently is either 5'10" or 5'11".  He's got a decent amount of weight, but is far more elusive than a power runner.

 

I can't tell if he's just barely good enough to hold onto the lead gig all season, or just underwhelming enough athletically that a dark horse like a rejuvenated CJ Spiller could force a change of reins by the second half of the season.

 

CJ Spiller... lol

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CJ Spiller has rushed for less than 450 yds since 2013 and was waived by the Jets.  Maybe he has some burst back and can break off a long run or two in a COP role, but he no longer has the skills to be a primary ball carrier.  It is difficult to let go of the talent everyone thought he would become, but it is not going to happen.

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Look, I don't know what I'm supposed to see vs the Cincy & Seattle defenses. Am I looking for 20yd chunk plays vs studs? As Kyle Shanahan says in everyone of his pressers, he doesn't scout the stat sheet. Does the RB get what's blocked and does he fall forward?

 

In this 1 minute video I see Hunt carrying SEA defenders, making Bobby Wagner miss at the LOS on a 3rd & 1, see him get 3yd YAC twice vs Earl Thomas. And this is all out of bleh straight ahead run plays. No Tyreek flashing in motion, no fake pass/draw plays, etc. Just here's the ball and good luck vs a top 5 D.

 

 

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5 minutes ago, bbythepier said:

Look, I don't know what I'm supposed to see vs the Cincy & Seattle defenses. Am I looking for 20yd chunk plays vs studs? As Kyle Shanahan says in everyone of his pressers, he doesn't scout the stat sheet. Does the RB get what's blocked and does he fall forward?

 

In this 1 minute video I see Hunt carrying SEA defenders, making Bobby Wagner miss at the LOS on a 3rd & 1, see him get 3yd YAC twice vs Earl Thomas. And this is all out of bleh straight ahead run plays. No Tyreek flashing in motion, no fake pass/draw plays, etc. Just here's the ball and good luck vs a top 5 D.

 

 

 

I'm not at all trying to diss Kareem (speaking as both a Chiefs and AND as a new Hunt owner), but he missed a YOOGE hole (Trent Richardson style) to his right at 0:16-0:17. I'm not sure if there are any other clips of that run, but I remember hearing that even the announcers commented on the hole that was missed. 

 

He's good. He's the starting running back on a run-first / check-down offense with an underrated o-line. But just keep your expectations in check is all I'm saying.

Edited by omnom1337
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I'm expecting what I got from ware last year

20 minutes ago, omnom1337 said:

 

I'm not at all trying to diss Kareem (speaking as both a Chiefs and AND as a new Hunt owner), but he missed a YOOGE hole (Trent Richardson style) to his right at 0:16-0:17. I'm not sure if there are any other clips of that run, but I remember hearing that even the announcers commented on the hole that was missed. 

 

He's good. He's the starting running back on a run-first / check-down offense with an underrated o-line. But just keep your expectations in check is all I'm saying.

I'm expecting the numbers ware got last year.  He's still learning the NFL, if he keeps getting better each week is all we can hope for.  He has the starting role in Andy Reid's offense, that's all that matters.

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1 hour ago, Robrain said:

 

Spiller's ability to split gaps and break off long runs with his speed is light years beyond what Hunt is capable of.

 

 

lol, no it's really not. Andy Reid didn't draft this dude in the 3rd round to watch Spiller or West beat him out. I think he likely takes the job from Ware early in the season even without Ware's injury. While not spectacular at anything, Hunt is very good at everything, runs well, doesn't fumble, blocks well, and is a good receiving back (44 receptions last year in college). With RB's, opportunity trumps talent most times, couple that with the fact that Andy Reid's teams historically produce top 10 RB's and I think it's likely Hunt finishes inside top 10.

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espn just did a new 10 team ppr draft in the wake of the Edelman, Meredith and Ware injures... he went 4.2

 

I grabbed him at 4.4 in mine on Sunday morning prior to the news breaking. In Yahoo, Hunte's preranking was in the 100s, I doubt it is there anymore.... so feel free to reach based on your league.

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Just did a 12 team mock draft on Yahoo and he's buried in the ranks right now...I waited to see when someone would draft him and no one took him until I did in the 5th round. The next draft, someone swooped on him in the third. I don't think he'll make it to the 5th once his ranking gets adjusted, but it seems like for now you can get him in that 3-5 round range depending on who you're drafting with. 

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3 hours ago, omnom1337 said:

 

I'm not at all trying to diss Kareem (speaking as both a Chiefs and AND as a new Hunt owner), but he missed a YOOGE hole (Trent Richardson style) to his right at 0:16-0:17. I'm not sure if there are any other clips of that run, but I remember hearing that even the announcers commented on the hole that was missed. 

 

He's good. He's the starting running back on a run-first / check-down offense with an underrated o-line. But just keep your expectations in check is all I'm saying.

 

The play you're talking about is shown in full here, the announcers even go to the replay and pause it and highlight the huge hole he missed (after the 30-second mark):

 

 

This didn't impress me, he seems to try to bowl over defenders when he shouldn't (like the play close up on the sideline where he should have just gone out of bounds instead of trying to hammer through 3 Bengals defenders for what, one extra needless yard?), which may have worked at the college level but not on bigger NFL defenders:

 

 

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What ADP is Hunt going at now that Ware is down for the count?

 

Yahoo Rankings still haven't updated him, is targeting him in the 3rd round seem like the right spot or are we talking putting him up there where Dalvin Cook is? (in the 20's)

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I will give you him missing that giant hole vs the Seahawks ala the famous GIF of Trent Richardson, but these dipsticks on the CBS fantasy show are killing me. From yesterday's podcast: "He doesn't fall forward like the other rookie RBs"

Really? That's all he did vs the Seahawks is fell forward 2-5 yards.

"Spencer Ware is just as talented as Kareem Hunt" : The Spencer Ware who did jack squat at LSU, was cut after 1yr by SEA and then spent a year on his couch contemplating playing baseball with a couple of DUIs mixed in? That Spencer Ware?

 

At least Adam pointed out that with 200+ carries Ware only had 3 20+yd runs. One of the least explosive RBs of 2016. Hunt may not light the world on fire vs that NE defense & the Hoody but Hunt has to be a better RB than Ware in my eyes.

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1 hour ago, bbythepier said:

"Spencer Ware is just as talented as Kareem Hunt" : The Spencer Ware who did jack squat at LSU, was cut after 1yr by SEA and then spent a year on his couch contemplating playing baseball with a couple of DUIs mixed in? That Spencer Ware?  At least Adam pointed out that with 200+ carries Ware only had 3 20+yd runs. One of the least explosive RBs of 2016. Hunt may not light the world on fire vs that NE defense & the Hoody but Hunt has to be a better RB than Ware in my eyes.

 

You make great points.

 

I think Ware and Hunt are very similar backs.  Ware has some more power but Hunt has some more quickness, but they are both shorter guys who do everything good, but nothing great.  They aren't the fastest, the biggest, the strongest.  But they block and catch well, and seem to always pump legs forward to fight for extra yards, they both are good about getting skinny through the holes.  They're both simply solid, well rounded running backs, despite college and combine being underwhelming.  So I think they're very similar in a lot of regards.

 

If Ware was healthy, and Hunt wasn't there, where would we be taking him?  Late 3rd early 4th as the Kansas City bell cow.  He was RB12 on a points per game basis last year, RB16 overall, and he did it despite being good-at-everything-but-great-at-nothing.  What does average talent in a premier situation look like?  Ware in 2016.

 

So why not Hunt in 2017?

 

Add to all this that Reid traded up to hand pick Hunt.  I'm expecting he'll be more of a priority in the red zone than Ware was.  The usage was mind boggling last year.  I think Andy Reid fancies himself the smartest man in the world, and so his guy that he reached for is probably going to get used a little bit more than leftovers from a previous regime.  Just my best guess at how an egomaniac operates.

 

Assuming health, and judging how well a good-but-not-great Ware did last year with mind boggling usage, a good-but-not-great Hunt is going to be a mid range RB2 at worst.

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I have simplified my approach to picking fantasy players, I used to focus way too much on the TALENT of a player and now I boil it down to offense and opportunity. All the talent in the world won't mean much if the team doesnt or hasn't the capability to use that talent properly.

 

I look at KC and I see a thin roster of studs but I see opportunity for those in starting positions. Kelce is the alpha stud, Hill is in training and Hunt is the de facto starting rb with a mix of west and sniff of spiller.  The mediocre QB situation and conservative play calling should add up to plenty of opportunity for Kelce and Hunt. So Hunt should easily trade 4th rd even though the hype of  Reids former stud rb's will push him into 3rd.  I personally have him in that target group of miller-hyde for ppr. In auction he is in the $20-30 range and depending how crazy ur auction gets can see him going for $35 as the hype builds or desperation for a starting rb takes over.

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55 minutes ago, dashoe said:

I have simplified my approach to picking fantasy players, I used to focus way too much on the TALENT of a player and now I boil it down to offense and opportunity. All the talent in the world won't mean much if the team doesnt or hasn't the capability to use that talent properly.

 

I look at KC and I see a thin roster of studs but I see opportunity for those in starting positions. Kelce is the alpha stud, Hill is in training and Hunt is the de facto starting rb with a mix of west and sniff of spiller.  The mediocre QB situation and conservative play calling should add up to plenty of opportunity for Kelce and Hunt. So Hunt should easily trade 4th rd even though the hype of  Reids former stud rb's will push him into 3rd.  I personally have him in that target group of miller-hyde for ppr. In auction he is in the $20-30 range and depending how crazy ur auction gets can see him going for $35 as the hype builds or desperation for a starting rb takes over.

 

No one nominated him in my last auction (Sunday), and I waited and waited, saving my $$... ended up getting him late for $1, which is insane; not shabby for a Flex. Also had $10 left over (which is pretty much insane, too).

 

Question is, who is starting him Week 1 vs. the Superbowl Champion Patriots? Is Hunt ready out of the gates? Compared to other backs going for similar prices as suggested in this thread, where is Hunt considering these backs?  

 

Hyde

Miller

TyMont

Lynch

Mixon

Abdullah

CJA

 

 

 

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I just had a little bit of an epiphany.

 

I've been banging the table for CJ Spiller, because he has that element of speed that Hunt absolutely doesn't bring to the KC running game.

 

But what if I've been looking at it wrong?  What if they already have an element of speed that they'll toss into the backfield whenever they feel like injecting some speed into their running game to mix it up, whether it be certain 3rd down situations, or just to catch the defense sleeping, or to take advantage of a runner that can blaze past a certain defender?

 

And maybe his name, despite KC saying he's a WR now...is Tyreek Hill.

 

Not saying Tyreek is going to take over for Hunt, but maybe my concerns about having a speed element in this backfield have been overblown if Tyreek is moved into the backfield often enough to keep the defense on their toes.

 

Would be a solid boost to Tyreek's floor if that were the case.  Would make him very reliable in PPR.

Edited by Robrain
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6 hours ago, CORTEz said:

What ADP is Hunt going at now that Ware is down for the count?

 

Way higher than Ware's ever was which should raise some red flags for people. Ware owners complained about West last season. If you're expecting a rookie to hold off scrubs like that more than Ware you might be in for a rude awakening.

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