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Kareem Hunt 2017 Outlook


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29 minutes ago, Robrain said:

 

I'm not 100% convinced that Hunt's big night didn't have a whole lot to do with the Pats defense looking terrible.  For example, that long TD reception up the seam looked like a blown coverage by the DE that came into the game to replace Donta Hightower after Hightower got his knee rolled on in a pileup.

 

That DE?  Was just acquired in a trade ~5 days ago:

 

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/patriots/2017/09/05/patriots-newcomer-cassius-marsh-playing-catch-before-opener/MnMTSyOtETOAcmdLHm6scI/story.html

 

http://nep.247sports.com/Bolt/Cassius-Marsh-promises-defense-will-turn-it-around-107098292

 

I'd have to look at the rest of his runs again.  Almost any back, including FBs, can score on simple receptions into the flat near the goal-line.  So that one didn't really impress me in any way.  The fumble on his first NFL carry DID make me laugh, though.  Thought he was gonna David Wilson it up on the sideline after that, but he bounced back from it.

 

To be honest, a lot of his plays looked really well-blocked.  For example, Charcandrick West took his only carry right up the gut for a 21-yard TD run.

The Pats definitely had a poor defensive showing in this game but I think Hill, Kelce, and Hunt are going to pose a matchup problem for most teams. Hill and Hunt seem like game changing, dynamic players and we know how good Kelce is. Hill really helps open things for Hunt. 

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22 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

For perspective: 

 

After week 1 of his rookie season, Kareem Hunt has 246 scrimmage yards and 3 TDs. 

 

Le'Veon Bell didn't reach 246 scrimmage yards or 3 TDs until week 8 of his rookie season. 

 

#HuntIsNoFluke

 

 

Not really a fair comparison as Bell was still recovering from that linsfrac injury or whatever he had and he didn't really turn it on until the second half of the season

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5 minutes ago, Robrain said:

 

Indeed.

 

 

 

1-10-KC 25(12:08) (Shotgun) 27-K.Hunt right tackle to KC 32 for 7 yards (37-J.Richards). FUMBLES (37-J.Richards), RECOVERED by NE-32-D.McCourty at KC 32. 32-D.McCourty to KC 32 for no gain (17-C.Conley).

 

------

 

1-10-KC 10(9:25) 27-K.Hunt right guard to KC 19 for 9 yards (37-J.Richards, 24-S.Gilmore).

 

2-2-KC 45(7:05) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short left to 27-K.Hunt pushed ob at 50 for 5 yards (21-M.Butler).

 

1-10-(6:34) (Shotgun) 27-K.Hunt right tackle to NE 41 for 9 yards (24-S.Gilmore).

 

2-9-NE 9(3:47) 27-K.Hunt up the middle to NE 7 for 2 yards (53-K.Van Noy).

 

------

 

1-10-KC 23(7:22) (Shotgun) 27-K.Hunt right end pushed ob at KC 26 for 3 yards (53-K.Van Noy).

 

2-7-KC 26(6:47) (Shotgun) 27-K.Hunt right end pushed ob at KC 36 for 10 yards (53-K.Van Noy). option pitch

 

------

 

1-10-KC 8(2:47) (Shotgun) 27-K.Hunt left end pushed ob at KC 22 for 14 yards (37-J.Richards). PENALTY on KC-72-E.Fisher, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at KC 8 - No Play.

 

1-14-KC 4(2:29) (Shotgun) 27-K.Hunt right end to KC 11 for 7 yards (55-C.Marsh).

 

2-3-NE 3(:17) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short left to 27-K.Hunt for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

 

------

 

END OF 1ST HALF

 

------

 

Hunt had 47 rushing yards on 8 carries in the first half.  Along with 2 receptions for 8 yards and a TD.

 

2ND HALF:

 

  1. 1-10-KC 25(15:00) 27-K.Hunt up the middle to KC 35 for 10 yards (98-T.Flowers; 93-L.Guy).
  2. 1-10-KC 35(14:23) 27-K.Hunt right end pushed ob at NE 45 for 20 yards (32-D.McCourty). PENALTY on KC-70-B.Witzmann, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at KC 35 - No Play.

 

2-13-KC 32(13:21) 11-A.Smith pass short right to 27-K.Hunt to KC 40 for 8 yards (24-S.Gilmore, 32-D.McCourty).

 

------

 

1-10-KC 14(7:08) 27-K.Hunt up the middle to KC 15 for 1 yard (98-T.Flowers, 45-D.Harris). NE-54-D.Hightower was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

 

------

 

So Hunt had 57 yards rushing and 16 yards receiving before Hightower left the game.

 

Hunt then added 91 yards rushing and 82 yards receiving after Hightower's injury.  In less than 2 quarters.

 

9b79cc1eafb91eaee61a2aff4f199fd84348f054

 

I mean he had like 7 YPC before the hightower injury so he was consistently running well the entire game. Intentionally leaving out the number of touches does help your misleading point though.

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3 minutes ago, kobe24 said:

 

I mean he had like 7 YPC before the hightower injury so he was consistently running well the entire game. Intentionally leaving out the number of touches does help your misleading point though.

 

How did I leave out the number of touches?  They're all, every single one of them, visible for the reader right there in my post?

 

Additionally:

 

Hunt's first half YPC = 5.875 (8 carries)

 

Hunt only added 9 carries in the second half.

 

Hunt had 5.8 YPC before Hightower left the game.

 

Hunt carried the ball just 7 more times after Hightower left the game, totaling 90 rushing yards (12.857 YPC).

 

If you can't see how those things connected, I'm ashamed of your teachers in school.

Edited by Robrain
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13 minutes ago, Robrain said:

 

Indeed.

 

 

 

1-10-KC 25(12:08) (Shotgun) 27-K.Hunt right tackle to KC 32 for 7 yards (37-J.Richards). FUMBLES (37-J.Richards), RECOVERED by NE-32-D.McCourty at KC 32. 32-D.McCourty to KC 32 for no gain (17-C.Conley).

 

------

 

1-10-KC 10(9:25) 27-K.Hunt right guard to KC 19 for 9 yards (37-J.Richards, 24-S.Gilmore).

 

2-2-KC 45(7:05) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short left to 27-K.Hunt pushed ob at 50 for 5 yards (21-M.Butler).

 

1-10-(6:34) (Shotgun) 27-K.Hunt right tackle to NE 41 for 9 yards (24-S.Gilmore).

 

2-9-NE 9(3:47) 27-K.Hunt up the middle to NE 7 for 2 yards (53-K.Van Noy).

 

------

 

1-10-KC 23(7:22) (Shotgun) 27-K.Hunt right end pushed ob at KC 26 for 3 yards (53-K.Van Noy).

 

2-7-KC 26(6:47) (Shotgun) 27-K.Hunt right end pushed ob at KC 36 for 10 yards (53-K.Van Noy). option pitch

 

------

 

1-10-KC 8(2:47) (Shotgun) 27-K.Hunt left end pushed ob at KC 22 for 14 yards (37-J.Richards). PENALTY on KC-72-E.Fisher, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at KC 8 - No Play.

 

1-14-KC 4(2:29) (Shotgun) 27-K.Hunt right end to KC 11 for 7 yards (55-C.Marsh).

 

2-3-NE 3(:17) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short left to 27-K.Hunt for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

 

------

 

END OF 1ST HALF

 

------

 

Hunt had 47 rushing yards on 8 carries in the first half.  Along with 2 receptions for 8 yards and a TD.

 

2ND HALF:

 

  1. 1-10-KC 25(15:00) 27-K.Hunt up the middle to KC 35 for 10 yards (98-T.Flowers; 93-L.Guy).
  2. 1-10-KC 35(14:23) 27-K.Hunt right end pushed ob at NE 45 for 20 yards (32-D.McCourty). PENALTY on KC-70-B.Witzmann, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at KC 35 - No Play.

 

2-13-KC 32(13:21) 11-A.Smith pass short right to 27-K.Hunt to KC 40 for 8 yards (24-S.Gilmore, 32-D.McCourty).

 

------

 

1-10-KC 14(7:08) 27-K.Hunt up the middle to KC 15 for 1 yard (98-T.Flowers, 45-D.Harris). NE-54-D.Hightower was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

 

------

 

So Hunt had 57 yards rushing and 16 yards receiving before Hightower left the game.

 

Hunt then added 91 yards rushing and 82 yards receiving after Hightower's injury.  In less than 2 quarters.

 

9b79cc1eafb91eaee61a2aff4f199fd84348f054

 

57 yards on 9 carries = 6.3 YPC with Hightower in.  Thanks for proving my point

 

Not to mention he chipped in another 16 receiving yard & a TD

 

Edited by FootyFan
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5 minutes ago, Robrain said:

 

Indeed.

 

 

 

1-10-KC 25(12:08) (Shotgun) 27-K.Hunt right tackle to KC 32 for 7 yards (37-J.Richards). FUMBLES (37-J.Richards), RECOVERED by NE-32-D.McCourty at KC 32. 32-D.McCourty to KC 32 for no gain (17-C.Conley).

 

------

 

1-10-KC 10(9:25) 27-K.Hunt right guard to KC 19 for 9 yards (37-J.Richards, 24-S.Gilmore).

 

2-2-KC 45(7:05) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short left to 27-K.Hunt pushed ob at 50 for 5 yards (21-M.Butler).

 

1-10-(6:34) (Shotgun) 27-K.Hunt right tackle to NE 41 for 9 yards (24-S.Gilmore).

 

2-9-NE 9(3:47) 27-K.Hunt up the middle to NE 7 for 2 yards (53-K.Van Noy).

 

------

 

1-10-KC 23(7:22) (Shotgun) 27-K.Hunt right end pushed ob at KC 26 for 3 yards (53-K.Van Noy).

 

2-7-KC 26(6:47) (Shotgun) 27-K.Hunt right end pushed ob at KC 36 for 10 yards (53-K.Van Noy). option pitch

 

------

 

1-10-KC 8(2:47) (Shotgun) 27-K.Hunt left end pushed ob at KC 22 for 14 yards (37-J.Richards). PENALTY on KC-72-E.Fisher, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at KC 8 - No Play.

 

1-14-KC 4(2:29) (Shotgun) 27-K.Hunt right end to KC 11 for 7 yards (55-C.Marsh).

 

2-3-NE 3(:17) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short left to 27-K.Hunt for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

 

------

 

END OF 1ST HALF

 

------

 

Hunt had 47 rushing yards on 8 carries in the first half.  Along with 2 receptions for 8 yards and a TD.

 

2ND HALF:

 

  1. 1-10-KC 25(15:00) 27-K.Hunt up the middle to KC 35 for 10 yards (98-T.Flowers; 93-L.Guy).
  2. 1-10-KC 35(14:23) 27-K.Hunt right end pushed ob at NE 45 for 20 yards (32-D.McCourty). PENALTY on KC-70-B.Witzmann, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at KC 35 - No Play.

 

2-13-KC 32(13:21) 11-A.Smith pass short right to 27-K.Hunt to KC 40 for 8 yards (24-S.Gilmore, 32-D.McCourty).

 

------

 

1-10-KC 14(7:08) 27-K.Hunt up the middle to KC 15 for 1 yard (98-T.Flowers, 45-D.Harris). NE-54-D.Hightower was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

 

------

 

So Hunt had 57 yards rushing and 16 yards receiving before Hightower left the game.

 

Hunt then added 91 yards rushing and 82 yards receiving after Hightower's injury.  In less than 2 quarters.

 

9b79cc1eafb91eaee61a2aff4f199fd84348f054

This is some truly terrible analysis and shows why simply watching the box score can be extremely misleading. The fact of the matter is that Hunt was patient in finding holes, broke tackles, continuously got extra yardage, converted on all of his passing targets, and had a nose for the end zone on the pitch play. This doesn't include the spectacular 50+ yard run and 70 yd catch which I will concede was more or less just good scheme and bad defense.

 

Hunt is probably not the next Bo Jackson, and the Chiefs probably won't win the Super Bowl. But if you actually watched the game last night and saw him play he clearly passes the eye test. I understand tempering expectations but you are taking it way overboard the other way, and honestly it's much more obnoxious than the blowhards in here that think they have the next DJ. At least they are joyous--you on the other hand are coming off extremely bitter and unwilling to concede that your initial analysis may just have been off. 

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8 minutes ago, Robrain said:

 

So Hunt had 57 yards rushing and 16 yards receiving before Hightower left the game.

 

Hunt then added 91 yards rushing and 82 yards receiving after Hightower's injury.  In less than 2 quarters.

 

 

Correlation doesn't equal causation either. The holes were there when Hightower was still in the game. There's no way to prove Hunt wouldn't have ripped those long gains with Hightower on the field. Hightower wasn't even responsible for Hunt in the game. If he was, he did a poor job as he didn't register a single tackle on the kid.

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2 minutes ago, Robrain said:

 

How did I leave out the number of touches?  They're all, every single one of them, visible for the reader right there in my post?

 

You intentionally didn't include them in the summary at the bottom of your post. The point you were making is that Hunt struggled until the Hightower injury then went off. That is just not true.

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14 minutes ago, Robrain said:

 

 

So Hunt had 57 yards rushing and 16 yards receiving before Hightower left the game.

 

Hunt then added 91 yards rushing and 82 yards receiving after Hightower's injury.  In less than 2 quarters.

 

 

 

Well, he also had 34 rushing yards called back on holding penalties and a receiving touchdown before Hightower left. 

 

So before Hightower left the game, he'd accumulated 10 fantasy points in standard (5+1+6, -2 fumble). But even with the fumble, 10 points in standard is not bad for a little over a half of work, with a likely total of reaching 15 or so by the end of the game assuming they were still feeding him the same workload.

 

Sure, he absolutely went off after Hightower went out. But 15 points in fantasy is RB1 territory in standard scoring, and against the Pats at home, wouldn't be anything to sneeze at. 

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5 minutes ago, kobe24 said:

 

You intentionally didn't include them in the summary at the bottom of your post. The point you were making is that Hunt struggled until the Hightower injury then went off. That is just not true.

 

No, the point I was making is that Hunt's stats got inflated after Hightower left the game.

 

Which ain't gonna be the situation he sees every week.

 

You do realize that Donta Hightower is the Pats defensive captain/playcaller, right?  It's not just about him running around making tackles, it's about him calling out formations, audibles, making sure his other defenders are lined up in the right spots, lined up on the correct offensive players, etc.

Edited by Robrain
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6 minutes ago, Robrain said:

 

No, the point I was making is that Hunt's stats got inflated after Hightower left the game.

 

Which ain't gonna be the situation he sees every week.

 

You do realize that Donta Hightower is the Pats defensive captain/playcaller, right?  It's not just about him running around making tackles, it's about him calling out formations, audibles, making sure his other defenders are lined up in the right spots, lined up on the correct offensive players, etc.

 

He's also not going to play against the Patriots every week. so that's a moot point. You didn't watch the game did you? Because if you did, you'd see that Kareem's talent had just as much to do with his big night as every other factor you're trying to nitpick. 

Edited by lbjames6
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I think many are missing the point when they speak of how bad the pats defense was or looking to temper the context of his production.

 

The point is a rookie rb who took over as a starter due to injury demonstrated he was a legit starting rb on a raod game against the superbowl cahmps. he could have screwed up 1000 ways from fumbles, drops, missed blocks,  bad route running, hitting the wrong holes, giving up negative yards to avoid a tackle,etc, etc,etc. 

His head was completely in the game and after the fumble he continued top play with confidence and he EXECUTED according to the gameplan. 

What that translates to is the coaching staff is validated in continuing to make him a major part of the weekly gameplan going forward and he has the confidence of his teammates.

He is fantasy gold going forward because uncertanty is removed  as to his role and usage

Edited by dashoe
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22 minutes ago, AnchorDown said:

This is some truly terrible analysis and shows why simply watching the box score can be extremely misleading. The fact of the matter is that Hunt was patient in finding holes, broke tackles, continuously got extra yardage, converted on all of his passing targets, and had a nose for the end zone on the pitch play. This doesn't include the spectacular 50+ yard run and 70 yd catch which I will concede was more or less just good scheme and bad defense.

 

Hunt is probably not the next Bo Jackson, and the Chiefs probably won't win the Super Bowl. But if you actually watched the game last night and saw him play he clearly passes the eye test. I understand tempering expectations but you are taking it way overboard the other way, and honestly it's much more obnoxious than the blowhards in here that think they have the next DJ. At least they are joyous--you on the other hand are coming off extremely bitter and unwilling to concede that your initial analysis may just have been off. 

 

I did watch the game last night.  Why do you think I wrote in my first reply here this morning that it looked like Hunt had very good blocking on most of his runs?

 

Check the blocking @ 3:23:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lhk1tV3BVVg

 

Wasn't anything supremely special by Hunt right there compared to what another RB could have done with the same thing.  Just an outside run play that his blockers sealed the edge on really well.

 

You guys are acting like I'm knocking Kareem Hunt.  We'll see if he keeps that pace beyond this week.

Edited by Robrain
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5 minutes ago, Robrain said:

 

No, the point I was making is that Hunt's stats got inflated after Hightower left the game.

 

Which ain't gonna be the situation he sees every week.

 

You do realize that Donta Hightower is the Pats defensive captain/playcaller, right?  It's not just about him running around making tackles, it's about him calling out formations, audibles, making sure his other defenders are lined up in the right spots, lined up on the correct offensive players, etc.

 

 

Of course nobody is expecting last nights numbers on a weekly bases. The runner I saw last night has it all. Even the 4 yard run late in the 4th where he stiff armed a defender, then side skirted a defender diving at his feet was great. I get Hightower is a big asset to the Pats D, but Hunt was putting in work and breaking off chunks even with Hightower in. 

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11 minutes ago, Robrain said:

 

No, the point I was making is that Hunt's stats got inflated after Hightower left the game.

 

Which ain't gonna be the situation he sees every week.

 

You do realize that Donta Hightower is the Pats defensive captain/playcaller, right?  It's not just about him running around making tackles, it's about him calling out formations, audibles, making sure his other defenders are lined up in the right spots, lined up on the correct offensive players, etc.

 

Hmm I wonder if the fact that the Chiefs took the lead and Hunt got way more touches the 2nd half had anything to do with it...

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4 minutes ago, Psideresider said:

 

 

Of course nobody is expecting last nights numbers on a weekly bases. The runner I saw last night has it all. Even the 4 yard run late in the 4th where he stiff armed a defender, then side skirted a defender diving at his feet was great. I get Hightower is a big asset to the Pats D, but Hunt was putting in work and breaking off chunks even with Hightower in. 

he did do great last night, i was expecting RB2 for Hunt, but he definitely looked like a RB1 last night. I thought the Patriots would be better than they were. Sat him in my 8 team league....boo for me.

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4 minutes ago, kobe24 said:

 

Hmm I wonder if the fact that the Chiefs took the lead and Hunt got way more touches the 2nd half had anything to do with it...

 

"Way more" is crazy inaccurate.

 

Hunt had 8 carries in the first half / 9 carries in the second half.

 

Hunt had 2 catches in the first half / 3 catches in the second half.

 

He added 1 carry and 1 catch in the second half.  Are you an idiot?

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13 minutes ago, Robrain said:

 

You guys are acting like I'm knocking Kareem Hunt.  We'll see if he keeps that pace beyond this week.

 

I don't think anyone is realistically expecting otherwise. He'll inevitably regress to the mean, and isn't going to drop 30+ TDs this season, but he looks darn good and should EASILY surpass Ware's RB12 finish from last season (or whatever it was).

Edited by lolcopter
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39 minutes ago, Robrain said:

So Hunt had 57 yards rushing and 16 yards receiving before Hightower left the game.

 

Hunt then added 91 yards rushing and 82 yards receiving after Hightower's injury.  In less than 2 quarters.

 

9b79cc1eafb91eaee61a2aff4f199fd84348f054

 

So Hunt had 3 catches, 83 total yards and a TD against Hightower (17.3 PPR points) and you're blowing that off? Sounds very butthurt. 

 

Just his numbers alone when Hightower was 100% would make him a top-5 RB on a per-game basis. 

 

Stop with the hate. 

 

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1 minute ago, joshua18 said:

 

 

So Hunt had 3 catches, 83 total yards and a TD against Hightower (17.3 PPR points) and you're blowing that off? Sounds very butthurt. 

 

Just his numbers alone when Hightower was 100% would make him a top-5 RB on a per-game basis. 

 

Stop with the hate. 

 

 

There's a difference between hate, and breaking down gameflow.

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Robrain,

 

I think some people are mistaking your point to be that Hunt is not going to keep putting up 40+ points per game, but that is obvious.

 

Can you clearly and concisely state your point in one sentence to give clarification on what you think about Hunt's outlook going forward?

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