Kareem Hunt 2017 Outlook

[dashoe 6,462]

Defining career moment for Hunt was

 

The LESSON OF FORGOTTEN FUMBLE

 

1st QTR

Pats Defender: 'Welcome to the NFL rookie learn how  take care of the ball punk!'

 

4th QTR

Hunt: 'Thank you sir for the lesson I took care of the ball as you insctructed for 246yds + 3 td's'

[bbythepier 1,668]

The reason why I'm personally going to strike any Robrain testimony from my memory is the preseason bias against Hunt that was shown in this thread. I prefer to use neutral parties in my analysis.

[shakestreet 4,096]

33 minutes ago, Robrain said:

 

How did I leave out the number of touches?  They're all, every single one of them, visible for the reader right there in my post?

 

Additionally:

 

Hunt's first half YPC = 5.875 (8 carries)

 

Hunt only added 9 carries in the second half.

 

Hunt had 5.8 YPC before Hightower left the game.

 

Hunt carried the ball just 7 more times after Hightower left the game, totaling 90 rushing yards (12.857 YPC).

 

If you can't see how those things connected, I'm ashamed of your teachers in school.

Are you trying to tell us Kareem was "not" awesome last night.

[Chardo 507]

58 of those post-Hightower yards came on a sweep left, away from where Hightower would have been.

[Chardo 507]

Nice stat, all 17 runs gained positive yardage.

[lolcopter 7,860]

1 minute ago, Chardo said:

Nice stat, all 17 runs gained positive yardage.

 

Heck, even that first fumble carry went for 7 or 8

[RustyMiller 1,247]

I had no idea he was such a good pass catcher and route runner.

His long bomb was a thing of beauty.  I don't think a WR could've ran that any better.

 

I wish I knew these things before the draft and I wouldn't have drafted Cook.

A versatile back under Andy Reid is going to feast all year.

[pastorofmuppets2 10,612]

14 minutes ago, GurleyBoy said:

Robrain,

 

I think some people are mistaking your point to be that Hunt is not going to keep putting up 40+ points per game, but that is obvious.

 

Can you clearly and concisely state your point in one sentence to give clarification on what you think about Hunt's outlook going forward?

 

no, i think we all get the nuance of his inference ... problem is he said "won't keep up this pace" verbatim - and if that thought doesn't beg a "no chiz, Sherlock" rebuttal then i don't know what does.  

[Chardo 507]

Non-committee backs hand picked by proven RB-friendly coaches are fantasy gold, and don't come around often.  Monster games like that won't happen often, but absolutely will happen again.  And at the end of the joyride, barring injury of course, this kid will be a top 5 RB for years to come. 

[phatrat 792]

This thread needs a little time out.  Lots of traffic in here, lots of discussion, but too many Cool Stories, too much AC content, and just too much back and forth of off topic discussion.  Once the thread is unlocked, we would ask that the discussion center around Kareem Hunt and his 2017 Season Outlook.

 

Everyone take a breather...and we will continue the discussion on Kareem Hunt in a bit.

[bbythepier 1,668]

Per the moderator's instructions, I will try to guide the thread away from CSBs.

 

This week Hunt faced the toughest defense to score a rushing TD on last year. This upcoming week the Eagles were T-5th toughest. Jernigan, Hicks, Kendricks & co are a tough front 7. You're obviously not sitting Kareem Hunt but just be aware that his easiest running defenses to get rushing TDs (according to last year's data) are still further down the schedule. Obviously he made this point moot with his pass catching ability and Reid's west coast playsheet, but my point still stands.

Edited September 8, 2017 by bbythepier

[Chardo 507]

2 minutes ago, bbythepier said:

Per the moderator's instructions, I will try to guide the thread away from CSBs.

 

This week Hunt faced the toughest defense to score a rushing TD on last year. This upcoming week the Eagles were T-5th toughest. Jernigan, Hicks, Kendricks & co are a tough front 7. You're obviously not sitting Kareem Hunt but just be aware that his easiest running defenses to get rushing TDs (according to last year's data) are still further down the schedule. Obviously he made this point moot with his pass catching ability and Reid's west coast playsheet, but my point still stands.

 

But as the rare non-committee back on a strong offense, Hunt is must-start, matchup-proof.

[bbythepier 1,668]

1 minute ago, Chardo said:

 

But as the rare non-committee back on a strong offense, Hunt is must-start, matchup-proof.

 

As i said in the quote.

[dashoe 6,462]

So based off of gm1 with   17 carries out of 27att + 5 receptions out of 35att = 22 touches  which is roughly 35% share of the offense in all aspects of backfield to downfield to endzone. I think that is very achievable weekly and is exactly what u want from your rb1 on a weekly basis. 

22 touches is tough to trade away with rb scarcity.

[PlayTheWaivers 1,886]

5 hours ago, Red Sox Nation said:

It's one game, so not going to go crazy here. Obviously it would be impossible to not be hyped though. Smith actually pushing the ball was a sight to see. He threw some beauties, too. That revelation would open things up quite nicely for Hunt. I'll be immediately trying to move Hunt and a wr for DJ/Bell though, and I'm going to offer Hunt straight up for Freeman and see what happens. Still a ton of unknown here. But obviously, very impressive. 

 

Finally. Some objectivity.

[dabeesta17 2,509]

So if Christian McCaffrey blows up Sunday, trade him. If Fournette blows up, trade him. If Mixon blows up, trade him. Guess I just don't follow this logic; trade rookie RBs once they show star power. I want the best players, who perform at a high level, and who are capable of dropping 50-burgers, on my team.

[bhawks489 3,678]

How much of Kareem's success was on the patriots D and possibly the best game of Alex smiths career?

 

Are we expecting double teams on Kareem to open up Tyreek? That just reminds me of roddy white and Julio jones when one would blow up or the other would on a given week

 

[King Cane 29]

Hey fellas, I was also trying to pick Hunt up in the 3rd round in my drafts this year...I play in PPR but I could justify him in the 2nd round also just where I was targeting him at. I have to admit I thought solid rb2- high rb3 was reasonable with a high ceiling in an Andy Reid offense. Last night he showed why Reid wanted him. 53 pts in my PPR league was shocking, he was exciting to watch also. But keep in mind this is the 1st game, New England did NOT look like the Patriot's of years past and you can be sure Bellichick will turn that around. So the question is did Hunt get lucky playing a severely unprepared Pats defense....or is this kid a top 4 RB? No way you can answer that with 1 game obviously but I will say his skill set is top notch imho. His college tape for those who haven't seen it is great too. A very dynamic player who can run and catch and break tackles. His pass protection seemed adequate as well.

 

Hunt reminds me of when Gurley burst on the scene 2 years ago, his first couple games he was tearing defenses up. Now that other teams playing the Chiefs this year recognize Hunt is a legitimate threat they will start game planning to stop him. This is where we will start to really see what type of player Hunt is...will he still be able to dominate, I think so. But he will have down games no doubt. Between Hunt, Hill and Kelce they will all feed off each other and create plays for each other. As long as Alex Smith can continue to be that type of QB he was last night the Cheifs offensive players will continue to flourish imo.

[Funkenstein 979]

 

[whoopsie 227]

6 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

How much of Kareem's success was on the patriots D and possibly the best game of Alex smiths career?

 

Are we expecting double teams on Kareem to open up Tyreek? That just reminds me of roddy white and Julio jones when one would blow up or the other would on a given week

 

 

As a patriots fan I would say most of it is on the D. Don't expect this every game from Hunt. If you watched Pats games last year you could see that the LBs cannot handle pass catching backs and it doesn't looked to have improved this year.

Edited September 8, 2017 by whoopsie

[Funkenstein 979]

5 minutes ago, whoopsie said:

 

As a patriots fan I would say most of it is on the D. Don't expect this every game from Hunt. If you watched Pats games last year you could see that the LBs cannot handle pass catching backs and it doesn't looked to have improved this year.

Nobody expects this every game from ANY player!  

 

RB's put up 44 points in my league a maybe a handful of times in a season

 

If I expected 250 yards and 3 TDS from my players every week I would be disappointed every week.

 

Sheesh

Edited September 8, 2017 by Funkenstein

[smuz1 45]

10 minutes ago, whoopsie said:

 

As a patriots fan I would say most of it is on the D. Don't expect this every game from Hunt. If you watched Pats games last year you could see that the LBs cannot handle pass catching backs and it doesn't looked to have improved this year.

I don't think anyone expects 40+ points a week, only a fool would think that. 20+ is also unrealistic, but from what we seen, we can expect about 100 total yards and a chance for a TD every week.  Solid low end RB1, which is what many thought he would be as the lead back in an Andy Reid offense. 

Edited September 8, 2017 by smuz1

[skye2388 155]

12 minutes ago, Funkenstein said:

Nobody expects this every game from ANY player!  

 

RB's put up 44 points in my league a maybe a handful of times in a season

 

If I expected 250 yards and 3 TDS from my players every week I would be disappointed every week.

 

Sheesh

 

I expect this every week from Hunt

[bwarbiany 630]

Coming into game 1, the questions were related to RBBC and whether he'd be used in the passing game. People were concerned that West was going to steal a lot of usage due to the coach's comments, and despite his history as a decent pass catcher in college and reputation as a good blocker, people were worried that due to inexperience and lack of "burst", that West and/or Spiller would take away snaps in the passing game and on third down. 

 

Usage in game 1 suggests that he's, as advertised, a true three-down back and will be the unquestioned workhorse of the backfield. The tape from game 1 suggests he's shifty, makes people miss, is a patient runner with good vision who follows his blocks, runs north-south, and runs tough / falls forward. He catches the ball well, to the point that he is going to be on the field on passing downs. Although he may not have top-end speed, he's got enough burst to reach the corner and accelerate into an open hole. 

 

So what's his 2017 fantasy outlook? IMHO he is clearly an RB1. Andy Reid's offense feeds the RB, and everything we saw last night suggests he's got the appetite for it. Will be a high-end RB1 or a low-end RB1? I don't know. But barring injury, I say he finishes top 12 at the position and maintains a high floor every week due to volume. 

Edited September 8, 2017 by bwarbiany

[skye2388 155]

Does Kareem have any injury history?