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Alvin Kamara 2017 Outlook


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Could have sworn I saw a thread on him, but my searches yielded nothing. 

 

http://www.nola.com/saints/index.ssf/2017/07/saints_rookies_ryan_ramczyk_al.html

 

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Alvin Kamara could revive the Saints' screen game
 

The Saints are giving rookie running back Alvin Kamara a ton of reps in the 2-minute offense as he tries to beat out Travaris Cadet for the main satellite back role. Kamara is an excellent pass catcher and does a good job on screens of setting up his blockers downfield. He will add some spark to the Saints' screen game, which struggled last season. Playing running back in the Saints' 2-minute offense can be difficult for a rookie because it requires so much responsibility and versatility. The position has a lot on its plate in terms of pass protection and route running. Kamara, however, looks like the rare rookie could could pull it off. 

 

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Probably won't return much on investment this year except maybe in full ppr, but he's a must grab in dynasty as this time next year he could very well be the go to RB in a high powered offense.

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597e827d971c8_1(1)-min.thumb.jpg.16a5541f0a2e13cd25338014483912bc.jpg

Let's not forget how much Sean Payton talked up CJ Spiller and Coby Fleener in the summers of 2015 and 2016, respectively lol. This guy has no credibility when effusing praise on his guys.  

 

 

Hopefully it's not just me, but the first thing that comes to mind when I watch this upload is, "can anyone in college tackle?"

 

Assuming Cadet gets cut, he's probably going to replace Cadet's 54 target, 40 reception, 281 receiving yard, 4 TD workload, but will no doubt need Ingram to die get a real shot... although, now that I just typed that, that's not completely out of the realm of possibility lol. Still, I'm skeptical. 

 

40-time: 4.53 (combine)

3-cone: 7.10 (pro day)

 

Senior year: 11 games, 103 carries, 596 yards, 9 TDs (5.8), 40 catches, 392 yards, 4 TDs (missed three games with LCL, meniscus issue)

 

Yea, I guess I wouldn't fault someone at all for going after this guy in dynasty, but I just don't get a great vibe from this player. I feel like a lot of those highlight reel plays are getting stopped dead in their tracks by NFL defenders who can tackle. 

 

 

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The title of this thread is 2017 Outlook. IMO, there is none. 

 

With that I'll add 2 caveats, aka my 2 cents. 

 

I'm not convinced that Ingram and AP are both back next year. Both will be on contracts that make it easy for the saints to cut ties with little cap hit in 2018. I have a strong feeling that if one was to be gone, it'd be Ingram. Watching saints games it was clear to me that at times Payton would do whatever he could to keep Ingram off the field, not on it. However I believe that the possibility for both to be gone is still in play. 

 

If both are gone, then dynasty guys should obviously know that this guy has a great chance to do awesome things. If even Ingram is gone and AP stays, the first comment still stands. 

 

That all said, a couple years ago I didn't believe that David Johnson had a shot at fantasy relevance, then one day 2 RBs ahead of him were no longer able to perform and the rest is obviously well known to us all. 

 

For 2017 relevance though, one is gonna need to have some strong patience to see this come to fruition 

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6 hours ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

That all said, a couple years ago I didn't believe that David Johnson had a shot at fantasy relevance, then one day 2 RBs ahead of him were no longer able to perform and the rest is obviously well known to us all. 

 

Yea, if we're going to bring up players we missed on, Devonta Freeman was one for me. And if I had to pick a player who I think represents Kamara's ceiling, it would probably be Freeman. Kamara is a couple inches taller and six pounds heavier, but they have the same 3-cone time and their 40s are more or less the same (4.5ish). 14 bench reps for Freeman, 15 for Kamara. Better vertical and broad jump for Kamara, but similar shuttles, 20 and 10 yard dashes, with the slight edge to Freeman there. Plus they play a similar role as above average ball carriers with strong receiving skills. 

 

Kamara however does have off the field issues, some injury history relating to his knee, and has only carried a full season workload once, and that was in JUCO. He was suspended twice while at Alabama and was arrested for driving with a suspended licence before transferring to Hutchinson CC where he obviously dominated haha. His lone redshirt season at Bama I think was because of a knee injury (someone correct if I'm wrong), he missed three games while playing JUCO (couldn't find out why), and then the LCL, meniscus issue that cost him a couple games last year. I'm not saying he's injury prone, but it's worth noting. And frankly, the off-the-field stuff seems to have largely occurred a few years ago, doesn't sound all that bad, and very well could be something he's matured from. 

 

Kamara's lighter college usage could play into his favor in that he theoretically could have more tread on his tires, but it also adds another unpredictable variable to our guess work. Can he handle Freeman's 2015 touch count? I dunno. 

 

Still though, you bring up a great point that by 2018, Ingram and AP could both be gone, and this guy will at the very least have the passing down role all to himself (assuming Payton doesn't get canned). That's a potentially great situation. I'm sure they'll bring in a two-down thumper to compliment him, but assuming he shows well as a rookie, he should have every opportunity to assume a Freeman-like role eventually. 

 

So while I see a highlight reel rife with poor tackling, I do admit that I could be making the same mistake I made with Freeman. But, it's still just a ceiling comparison, and Freeman wasn't a factor as a rookie. 

 

But seriously though, unrelated to our analysis here, any time Sean Payton starts gushing over one of his guys, I just roll my eyes now :lol:

 

 

Edited by jetfan1983
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10 hours ago, jetfan1983 said:

 

597e827d971c8_1(1)-min.thumb.jpg.16a5541f0a2e13cd25338014483912bc.jpg

Let's not forget how much Sean Payton talked up CJ Spiller and Coby Fleener in the summers of 2015 and 2016, respectively lol. This guy has no credibility when effusing praise on his guys.  

 

 

I also remember Sean Payton saying if he played fantasy football he'd draft Michael Thomas. 

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Just now, boltup15 said:

 

I also remember Sean Payton saying if he played fantasy football he'd draft Michael Thomas. 

 

I guess he was bound to be right eventually :lol:

 

But then there's always this crap too: 

 

 

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17 hours ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

The title of this thread is 2017 Outlook. IMO, there is none. 

 

With that I'll add 2 caveats, aka my 2 cents. 

 

I'm not convinced that Ingram and AP are both back next year. Both will be on contracts that make it easy for the saints to cut ties with little cap hit in 2018. I have a strong feeling that if one was to be gone, it'd be Ingram. Watching saints games it was clear to me that at times Payton would do whatever he could to keep Ingram off the field, not on it. However I believe that the possibility for both to be gone is still in play. 

 

If both are gone, then dynasty guys should obviously know that this guy has a great chance to do awesome things. If even Ingram is gone and AP stays, the first comment still stands. 

 

That all said, a couple years ago I didn't believe that David Johnson had a shot at fantasy relevance, then one day 2 RBs ahead of him were no longer able to perform and the rest is obviously well known to us all. 

 

For 2017 relevance though, one is gonna need to have some strong patience to see this come to fruition 

 

David Johnson had already scored 8 TDs as a rookie before Ellington and CJ?K were lost for the season before week 13. Kamara won't sniff that. 

 

The AP and Kamara hype just makes Ingram -- a top 10 RB each of the past 2 seasons -- a great value. 

 

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1 hour ago, joshua18 said:

The AP and Kamara hype just makes Ingram -- a top 10 RB each of the past 2 seasons -- a great value. 

 

Ingram is a blinking neon BUY right now. Never going to be the classic workhorse we'd love him to be, but few are anymore. Pretty much a lock for RB2 floor, with only a 32 year old, oft-injured, run down AP standing in the way of RB1 production.

 

Oh yeah, Kamara will be.....fantasy irrelevant.

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Lots of very definitive statements made here. I seen this guy play quite a few times for UT and he seems have all the physical tools as long as he can stay healthy, of course that goes for all running backs.  I think he's in a great situation with the Saints and while he may not be fantasy relevant his rookie year, he's as good as any mid 1st round rookie draft pick for dynasties...ESPECIALLY ppr leagues.  

 

I personally try to stay away from absolute statements until I at least see but what these type rooks look like with pads on in their first preseason game.

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Is this a smoke screen? Should we be looking out for AP or Ingram?

I'm not saying that Kamara isn't talented. 

 

Source: ESPN.com - Mike Triplett

New Orleans Saints RB Alvin Kamara's playing style resembles that of retired RB Marshall Faulk, head coach Sean Payton said Sunday, July 30.

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11 minutes ago, TX Babe Ruth said:

Is this a smoke screen? Should we be looking out for AP or Ingram?

I'm not saying that Kamara isn't talented. 

 

Source: ESPN.com - Mike Triplett

New Orleans Saints RB Alvin Kamara's playing style resembles that of retired RB Marshall Faulk, head coach Sean Payton said Sunday, July 30.

 

Complete misinterpretation. Payton was asked about comparing the two since he coached Faulk in college. A complete non-story pushed by lemmings who claim to be fantasy analysts. 

 

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26 minutes ago, burninglegs said:

Any chance Kamara takes on the 'satellite' back/Reggie Bush role this season? 

He's been lining up as WR recently in practice. Caught a back shoulder toss from Brees yesterday or the day before. Tough fit even as WR....MT, Snead, Ginn, Coleman, and a Lil dude named Tommylee Lewis. 

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Should be a great dynasty add that generally comes after Fournette, McCaffery, Perine, and close to Hunt. 

 

I think he's daily 3rd best RB in the class, but hed need a lot to happen to have a major impact before next season.

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He has been impressive in camp and had a good but limited preseason game. People are giving him the Sproles/Bush role but I think he compares a bit more to Pierre Thomas. Even with Ingram & Peterson in front at this point I think he can offer at the very least a flex worthy ppr rb this season, great dynasty value though.

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He's an off-the-charts type athlete. Payton did not trade a 2nd next year without a significant role in mind for AK. Invest at the current cost and enjoy--esp in dynasty formats. Also he will get a bunch of work in the game tonight, both AP and Ingram are sitting out.

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