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Alvin Kamara 2017 Outlook


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On 8/21/2017 at 0:14 PM, Robrain said:

 

I'm just going to state the really really really obvious:

 

Eddie Lacy scored receiving TDs in that season because he was on a pass-first offense.

 

Adrian Peterson didn't score any receiving TDs that season because he was busy scoring 18 rushing TDs.  When they got to the goal-line, they did the obvious thing: hand-off the ball to your legendary runningback.

 

The end result was the same for fantasy: if the Vikings made it to the goal-line, Peterson scored the TD.  You get the same amount of points for rushing or receiving TDs.

 

Brett Favre was the QB for the Vikings in 2009 and threw 33 TDs (versus 7 INTs, notably signifying his largely game-manager type role at that point).  11 of those TDs were to his TE, Visanthe Shiancoe.  Shiancoe wasn't a big-play threat, more of a possession guy:

 

http://www.nfl.com/player/visantheshiancoe/2505561/gamelogs?season=2009

 

1) "In fact, in his 15-season career (not counting 2014), AP has totaled 5 receiving TDs"

 

First off, Adrian Peterson has only played 10 seasons.  Who do you think he is, Emmitt Smith?

 

And that's largely because AP was busy scoring 97 rushing TDs.

 

2) "In long, I suppose I could have said, "AP hasn't demonstrated success as a receiving back in the last 7 seasons," because the number you're referring to is from 2009"

 

I made a specific point to note the difference between having an Elite QB and not having an Elite QB.  In AP's 2009 season, AP had an Elite QB (Brett Favre).

 

After Favre retired for good?

 

16 Matt Cassel

 

Man, none of those QBs are even Joe Flacco-ELITE...

 

Bradford would have probably been the best QB that AP's played with SINCE Favre, except...AP got injured in Week 1, and Bradford didn't take over until Week 2 last year.

 

So you really shouldn't judge AP's receiving performance with a smattering of shaky QBs, when we already have a real example of two seasons with AP performing perfectly adequately in the passing game with an Elite QB.

 

Gotta agree with this. To summarize in 100 words or less:  Why bother taking the small to medium risk of have a middling QB throw a pass to a generational talent who can't be stopped from getting first downs or kept out of the end zone with a mere handoff.

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A little known tidbit of Mark Ingram's contract. Per overthecap.com. This is probably a long shot but...

 

Contract Notes

Mark Ingram signed a 4 year, $16 million contract with the New Orleans Saints on March 8, 2015. $6.1 million is fully guaranteed including a $3.6 million signing bonus. Ingram can earn additional escaltors and the 2018 season can void if he achieves Pro Bowl or All Pro honors. Ingram restructured his contract on March 28, 2016, convering $2.235 million of salary into a signing bonus to reduce his 2016 cap charge by $1.49 million. His cap figures will increase by $745,000 in each remaining contract year.

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4 hours ago, Jason497 said:

A little known tidbit of Mark Ingram's contract. Per overthecap.com. This is probably a long shot but...

 

Contract Notes

Mark Ingram signed a 4 year, $16 million contract with the New Orleans Saints on March 8, 2015. $6.1 million is fully guaranteed including a $3.6 million signing bonus. Ingram can earn additional escaltors and the 2018 season can void if he achieves Pro Bowl or All Pro honors. Ingram restructured his contract on March 28, 2016, convering $2.235 million of salary into a signing bonus to reduce his 2016 cap charge by $1.49 million. His cap figures will increase by $745,000 in each remaining contract year.

 

So if i understand this correctly if Ingram achieves pro bowl or all pro honors the saints won't have to pay him that money?

 

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18 minutes ago, pdog109 said:

 

So if i understand this correctly if Ingram achieves pro bowl or all pro honors the saints won't have to pay him that money?

 


From what I read, it's a player option so Ingram could choose to void the deal and hit the open market a year earlier.

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A few excerpts from a good article. 

 

 

Kamara: The Evolution of the Joker

 

 

Quote

 

Evolving the Joker

 

Look, do we need a combination of Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush in an offense that already has Mark Ingram and Adrian Peterson? OF COURSE WE DO. The satellite back, the joker, is the most critical part of Sean Payton’s genius.

 

All but forced to take Reggie Bush with the second overall pick to start his tenure as head coach, Payton made Bush our defining skill player from 2006-2010. Of course, Bush never lived up to the impossible hype that comes along with being the second overall pick in the draft, and a huge part of the fan base hated him for that.

 

Reggie was hard to watch sometimes because expectations, his ceaseless potential, and the memory of his college heyday vastly overshadowed his on-the-field contributions as a Saint. He was a superstar that never materialized.

 

Still, he had shining moments (the historic bat game, the time he almost had three punt return touchdowns in a game, etc.)

Then came Darren Sproles, who burned hot and fast in the Saints’ offense. His 2011 performance is so staggeringly good, his integration into the system so complete, that it’s hard to remember that he wasn’t actually on the squad that won a title.

 

The transition to Sproles was so seamless that it came as a shock when the Saints failed to replace him after Sproles was traded in the first great blood-letting, in 2013.

 

Between Travaris Cadet and C.J. Spiller, watching the Saints try to plug the hole left by Bush and Sproles with broken and inadequate players has contributed to the malaise around this team. The Saints are better — and more importantly more exciting — when they have a reliable joker on the field.

 

It’s not hard science, but since the beginning of the Sean Payton Era, the Saints have played 107 games with a joker back and 69 without.

 

Win Percentage with Joker:

With Joker: .617 or 9.8 wins per season
Without Joker: .507 or 8.1 wins per season

 

For obvious reasons, when C.J. Spiller was on the field, it counts as no joker.

 

More importantly, there’s only been four seasons in which the joker (again that’s Bush and Sproles) have played the full 16 game seasons: 2006, 2009, 2011, 2013. In those seasons, the Saints have averaged 11.75 wins — they were the best four seasons of the era. For better context, the average number of wins for Saints teams with an injured joker or no joker at is…you guessed it…7.7. All five of the team’s 7 win seasons came without a player like Kamara — he’s important.

 

 

 

 

 

http://www.blackandgoldreview.com/2017/08/31/kamara-evolution-joker

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On Alvin Kamara, satellite back: Speedy rookie looks like perfect fit for Saints offense

Joel Thomas doesn’t have to look far to show his players the standard. It’s right there in the vault, wearing black and gold.

 

The New Orleans Saints might not have invented the satellite back, but they came close to perfection when Darren Sproles was zipping around the turf at the Superdome.

 

That’s why Thomas, the Saints' running backs coach, pulls up clips of Sproles when he wants to show rookie Alvin Kamara how the position should be played.

 

“Man, he never gets touched,” Kamara said. “He’s got a low center of gravity. His decision-making is so precise. He knows what he wants to do 10 moves before he does it.”

 

That was the vision the Saints had for Kamara when they traded up to get him in the third round of the draft. The satellite back has been a key element of this offense for 11 years, starting with Reggie Bush, then Sproles and onto its current form, Travaris Cadet. It’s a role that, at its best, creates mismatches all over the field.

 

Sproles might represent the peak of that role for the Saints. His mere presence, even when he didn’t touch the ball, could freeze the defense. It left opponents with a dilemma: Do you bring a safety down to try to stop him, or do you take your chances and let a linebacker handle him? Often, both choices were wrong.

 

Sproles gave defensive coordinators headaches throughout the 2011 season, but maybe the most memorable moment came against the Houston Texans when safety Troy Nolan came down into the box to keep an eye on Sproles. The running back never even ran a route; he remained next to Drew Brees as the quarterback spotted tight end Jimmy Graham with one-on-one coverage, feeding him for a 27-yard touchdown. By simply standing on the field, Sproles created an array of options from which Brees could choose.

 

That’s what Sproles did for this offense. And that’s the player the Saints are hoping Kamara will become.

 

“A lot of times, those guys get matched up on linebackers. Or, if you force a team to go nickel, you can potentially run the ball a little bit,” Saints safety Kenny Vaccaro said. “Having a guy like Kamara or (the Carolina Panthers’ Christian) McCaffrey or any of those guys that make mismatch problems ... it’s definitely in the league now, especially in our offense. He technically could be a slot (receiver); he could be an outside guy; you see him line up at the 'X' (receiver) and go against a safety. It’s hard to cover.”

 

Kamara is a visual learner. When he wants to pick up something new, he likes to watch others do it. He said his game is a combination of skills he picked up while watching Marshall Faulk, Adrian Peterson, Priest Holmes and Clinton Portis while growing up.

 

If he watches how the Saints used Sproles in 2011 and then how Cadet played the part last season, he’ll see only slightly different visions for his role in the passing offense.

 

For Sproles, it’s merely more — more targets, more routes, more flexibility. Sometimes it's drastically different, like the time he lined up as an inline tight end against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and ran an out route. You won’t find a play like that on Cadet’s video.

 

“(Coach Sean Payton) used to tell him to line up and get as low as he could so the defense couldn’t see him,” former Saints running back Deuce McAllister joked.

One of the differences between Sproles and Cadet: Sproles was more dynamic when split out. Of the 86 passes Sproles caught in 2011, nearly half of them came when he was lined up as a receiver. But that doesn’t necessarily mean Sproles was used more or had more opportunities to make things happen despite playing a higher percentage of snaps.

 

One of Cadet’s primary roles with the Saints last season was in the hurry-up offense. The Advocate located 193 passing plays with Cadet on the field. Of those, 77 came in empty sets, with Cadet lined up as a wide receiver. He also had 14 plays where he lined up as a receiver with another player in the backfield. The Advocate located 14 plays where his primary role was in protection and he never ran a route, which means Cadet ran 87 routes out of the backfield last season, many of which were out of shotgun formations.

 

What this means for Kamara is that he has a lot to learn. He isn’t just trying to pick up what the running backs are doing. He must also know what the receivers are doing and all of the protections. So far, the Saints are encouraged by his progress.

 

“He carries himself like he’s stone cold in his veins. Nothing rattles him,” Thomas said. “He’s been very mature, very smart. He’s not a rep guy. Make a mistake, and he fixes it the next play. That’s very refreshing as a coach. A lot of guys need a couple of reps and go from there. He’s kind of a little different in that regard.”

The biggest difference between Sproles and Cadet is that Sproles was more of a threat in the running game — especially in 2011, when he ran for 603 yards along with the 710 he provided as a receiver. Cadet has never had more than 10 carries or 32 yards rushing in a season.

 

That’s what makes Kamara so interesting. He was in a peculiar situation in college at Tennessee, where he wasn’t the featured back. But he made his living on the ground, rushing for 596 yards on 103 carries last season to go with 40 catches for 392 yards. Many of his receptions were on screens.

 

Payton confirmed his hunch that Kamara could run an array of routes after working him out before the draft, but there isn’t much need to stretch the imagination on what he can do with the ball in his hands. He averaged 5.8 yards per carry, often running between the tackles. He showed a similar ability throughout Saints training camp and in the preseason — particularly at Cleveland, where he had runs of 12 and 22 yards, and at Los Angeles, where he shocked the Chargers with a 50-yard touchdown run.

 

If Kamara can carry that into the regular season and continue to develop as a receiver, he could create the same mismatch issues that Sproles did. With Cadet, defenses have a much easier time of keying on pass or run. It was a guessing game with Sproles, and the Saints believe Kamara can create the same issue.

 

“He wasn’t used as much (in college), obviously. Coach Payton and everyone has been using him a lot during practice,” said linebacker Alex Anzalone, who went to Florida, which plays Tennessee every year in Southeastern Conference play. “Getting him in space against a linebacker and finding mismatches within the defenses ... from what I remember when I played him, we didn’t see a whole lot of that. I don’t know what happened. I think he’s an awesome player.”

 

His running style gives the Saints a different look. The team has power runners in Mark Ingram and Adrian Peterson; while Kamara can handle that role, he provides a different style and can attack the edges more, giving the defense something else to worry about.

 

“He’s a different pitch I have coming out of my mitt when I throw from the mound,” Thomas said.

 

The funny thing about this position is that it wasn’t initially envisioned for the offense. The Saints didn’t expect Bush to fall to them in the 2006 draft. When it became clear he was going to, Payton and his staff brainstormed ideas on how to use him alongside McAllister.

 

That’s how all of this came to be. And all these years later, the satellite back remains one of the most important spots in the Saints offense.

 

"I think the changes take place with the addition or subtraction of the different tight ends or the different halfbacks," Payton said. "In other words, there’s some staples receiver-wise, but we went from Ernie Conwell, Billy Miller in those early years, then (Jeremy) Shockey and Jimmy Graham, (Coby) Fleener. Then Reggie Bush to Sproles. Those joker positions often dictate how we change.

 

"We’ve always had some featured runners — Deuce, Mike Bell, Pierre (Thomas). I think those joker positions are ones that force us to move a little bit in a direction."

If it works as hoped, opposing defensive coordinators won’t share the same excitement.

 

http://www.theadvocate.com/new_orleans/sports/saints/article_6b675eaa-81dc-11e7-90c6-972b52c7b9e5.html?utm_content=buffer66c47&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

 

 

 

I'm excited. 

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I like Kamara in PPR leagues. But for standard, I wonder if it's not better to speculate on RBs that have more feature back potential (e.g. Foreman). It's just hard for me to see him carving out a large carry load or scoring 7+ TDs without both AP and Ingram getting hurt.

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Currently kamara is enticing because Snead is gone for 4 games so there are targets available to pass catchers and they are all no going to thomas-ginn-fleener, He is def worth a stash  if u have bench room

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9 hours ago, Deadpool said:

@burninglegs Why you gotta tempt me to pick him up across the board..

 

I think he is worth the lotto pickup to see how he does for 2-3 weeks. If he takes that Sproles/Bush role, guy had huge potential in PPR leagues. 

 

 

8 hours ago, dashoe said:

Currently kamara is enticing because Snead is gone for 4 games so there are targets available to pass catchers and they are all no going to thomas-ginn-fleener, He is def worth a stash  if u have bench room

 

Good point. Fleener stinks with his stone hands. Ginn has stone hands too but is more of a deep threat. Kamara can carve out a decent size role in that offense. 

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I know tonight the focus is on The Return of AP and His Big Easy Switch but is anyone else excited to see kamara play given the average to exceptional results we have seen from the other highly touted rookie rb's?

 

i speculate he can't do worse than Perine/mixon  and could optimistically perform at the Cmac level.

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5 minutes ago, dashoe said:

I know tonight the focus is on The Return of AP and His Big Easy Switch but is anyone else excited to see kamara play given the average to exceptional results we have seen from the other highly touted rookie rb's?

 

i speculate he can't do worse than Perine/mixon  and could optimistically perform at the Cmac level.

 

I certainly am!

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1 minute ago, PlayTheWaivers said:

 

I'm having regret dropping him.

 

However, his noise will be made in PPR leagues. 

 

Def PPR guy. But I added in my standard league too as possible trade bait for RB hungry teams.

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