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This could be interesting. Let's name guys late in their career that are possible, but not definite, hall of famers, and discuss why they should be in Cooperstown, or why not?

 

Opening shot: Chase Utley

 

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Locks:

 

Beltre - Longevity of his glove and bat.

Kershaw - Because of his peak, he's already in.

Bumgarner - Post-season performance.

Pujols - 605 career hrs.

Trout - Cruise control. I think the first 6 years of his career have been so good, that he gets rewarded as a generational talent.

 

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1 minute ago, Light Tower Power said:

Locks:

 

Beltre - Longevity of his glove and bat.

Kershaw - Because of his peak, he's already in.

Bumgarner - Post-season performance.

Pujols - 605 career hrs.

Trout - Cruise control. I think the first 6 years of his career have been so good, that he gets rewarded as a generational talent.

 

 

I'd add Miguel Cabrera to this list, too.

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17 minutes ago, 2ndCitySox said:

This could be interesting. Let's name guys late in their career that are possible, but not definite, hall of famers, and discuss why they should be in Cooperstown, or why not?

 

Opening shot: Chase Utley

 

When you stack up his numbers for a 2B, it seems like yes. But it seems like he had 5 elite years and a bunch of meh. I'm gonna say no. 

 

Carlos Beltran?

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Baseball Reference's "Hall of Fame Monitor" ( a Bill James creation) is a useful tool for such debates. It assesses a variety of factors to come up with an overall HoF induction probability score: 100 points means the player has a good possibility of induction, 130 points means the player is a virtual lock. It does this for all players, past and present.

 

www.baseball-reference.com/about/leader_glossary.shtml#hof_monitor

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28 minutes ago, 2ndCitySox said:

This could be interesting. Let's name guys late in their career that are possible, but not definite, hall of famers, and discuss why they should be in Cooperstown, or why not?

 

Opening shot: Chase Utley

 

 

I don't think Utley has much of a shot. 

 

 

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Ichrio/Pujols/Beltre/Miggy/Kershaw/Trout are locks.

 

Utley/Beltran are fringe guys right now. I might throw CC Sabathia in that fringe tier. 

 

Harper doesn't have the case yet, but I'd lay odds he ends up there. Same with Posey.

 

Votto, McCutchen, Cano, Scherzer, Sale, and Bumgarner have a real shot if they age better than average(Bucco fan so I might be biased about 'Cutch). 

 

Thinking about this holistically, we may have to change the standards by which we judge pitchers. In today's game, it's just so difficult to put up numbers comparable to the current guys in the hall. The main reason Scherzer, Sale, and MadBum are in there is because they haven't broke. I probably would have said the same thing about Verlander 3 years ago. 

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14 minutes ago, Light Tower Power said:

Locks:

 

Beltre - Longevity of his glove and bat.

Kershaw - Because of his peak, he's already in.

Bumgarner - Post-season performance.

Pujols - 605 career hrs.

Trout - Cruise control. I think the first 6 years of his career have been so good, that he gets rewarded as a generational talent.

 

 

Joey Votto - Lock

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9 minutes ago, jdizzle said:

Jon Lester

 

3 World Series titles and a NLCS MVP help, only a four time All Star fwiw. 

Top 5 in Cy Young voting three times. 

Probably has to more to do to make it imo.

 

I'd be very surprised if Utley didn't make it, he's 11th all time in WAR at second base between Biggio and Alomar.

 

Ichiro is a lock.

 

Sale will eventually be a lock.

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I'm going to say no on Utley, but it wouldn't surprise me. 

 

I honestly think Posey is close to a lock, guess I could be wrong. He's been the best catcher for what seems like ages. ROY. 3 World Series rings where he was basically batting 3rd or clean up each time. Numbers would be better if he didn't play in SF, and I think by the time he comes up for vote, that will be much more seen. 

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Utley is super interesting. By raw WAR or the JAWS metric, he should be in there. Has the longevity, has the peak. 

 

Problem is that a lot of his value is based on defense. Reminds me of Lou Whitaker, who dropped off the ballot after his first year of eligibility. Voters have a different understanding of overall value than they did back then, and Utley played in the DRS/UZR era, so his defensive stats would (seemingly) be more accurate than Whitaker's, which are based on TZ. 

 

I don't think this should be the case, but if the Dodgers win the WS this year and Utley has any big moments along the way, that could factor in. 

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37 minutes ago, Rabbit Maranville said:

Thinking about this holistically, we may have to change the standards by which we judge pitchers. In today's game, it's just so difficult to put up numbers comparable to the current guys in the hall. The main reason Scherzer, Sale, and MadBum are in there is because they haven't broke. I probably would have said the same thing about Verlander 3 years ago. 

 

Halladay, Johan Santana and to a lesser degree Lincecum will be interesting cases.

 

If guys ultimately aren't going to accumulate the traditional counting stats (wins, innings, K's, etc), how does the evaluation process evolve.

 

Maybe, down the road, winning two Cy Youngs alone becomes good enough.

Edited by My Dinner With Andre
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27 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

I'm going to say no on Utley, but it wouldn't surprise me. 

 

I honestly think Posey is close to a lock, guess I could be wrong. He's been the best catcher for what seems like ages. ROY. 3 World Series rings where he was basically batting 3rd or clean up each time. Numbers would be better if he didn't play in SF, and I think by the time he comes up for vote, that will be much more seen. 

Posey Poesy Posey!

 

Here are some numbers regarding catcher, since 2010 (his first full season):

*note: I'm including a few guys who might not even qualify as a catcher in HOF voting because they stopped playing the position (like Santana), but it shows how good Posey is

GP: 3rd (984, behind Molina and Santana)
HR: 3rd (127, behind McCann and Santana)
R: 3rd (486, behind Santana and Mauer)
RBI: 1st (571)
SB: 10th (15)
AVG: 1st (.309)
OBP: 2nd (.377, .001 behind Mauer)
SLG: 2nd (.479 behind Gattis)
WAR: 1st (37, way ahead of the next guy at 25.7)

He's 31st all time in WAR for catchers... I know it isn't the "be all end all", but he's seriously unreal. 3WS rings, a ROY, Comback Player of the Year, Hank Aaron Award, MVP, etc, etc, etc, etc...

Should be a lock, IMO. 

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I too think Posey is pretty much a lock, but also think Cano is close.

 

Out of left field a bit, but Craig Kimbrel should warrant serious consideration.   

 

A couple more years like he's had, and his numbers will make a strong case.  726k in 445 career IP with almost 300 saves....

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Miggy, Pujols, Ichiro, Beltre and Kershaw are the only locks in my opinion The near or a ways to go HoF case players with over 10 years under the belt for me are Beltran, Braun, Votto, Holliday, Cano, Utley, Pedroia, Scherzer, Sabathia, Felix, Greinke and Verlander.

 

I don't think there's much of a point in projecting Hall of Fame possibilities for guys still in their 20's.

 

On a side note I am a supporter of elite defensive players with well above average offense like Utley and Rolen getting in but the one up coming defensive specialist I am really interested in seeing the voting results for is Vizquel. 

Edited by BleedRedsRed
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