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7 hours ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Wins Above Replacement (WAR) is an attempt by the sabermetric baseball community to summarize a player’s total contributions to their team in one statistic. You should always use more than one metric at a time when evaluating players, but WAR is all-inclusive and provides a useful reference point for comparing players. WAR offers an estimate to answer the question, “If this player got injured and their team had to replace them with a freely available minor leaguer or a AAAA player from their bench, how much value would the team be losing?” This value is expressed in a wins format, so we could say that Player X is worth +6.3 wins to their team while Player Y is only worth +3.5 wins, which means it is highly likely that Player X has been more valuable than Player Y.

WAR is not meant to be a perfectly precise indicator of a player’s contribution, but rather an estimate of their value to date. Given the imperfections of some of the available data and the assumptions made to calculate other components, WAR works best as an approximation. A 6 WAR player might be worth between 5.0 and 7.0 WAR, but it is pretty safe to say they are at least an All-Star level player and potentially an MVP.

 

^^This is from the fangraphs definition. I would think the use of the word "estimate" twice, along with the words/phrases, "not perfectly precise," "imperfections of data," and "approximation" would be enough to make the uses of WAR clear. 

Maybe we can stop pretending people think WAR is some perfect, all-knowing stat, and get back to talking about HOF potential players? And here's an idea! If someone brings up WAR, and you don't like WAR, maybe...gasp...bring up some alternative stat that you like! Crazy, huh? 

 

Anyway...

Johan Santana. Roy Halladay. Both elite peaks, but with some holes. In or out? 

Roy Halladay in, Johan out. Halladay was the pitcher of the 00's.

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Johan Santana is such a fascinating case. He should have won three straight Cy Youngs. He was that good. But the voters lost their minds one year and gave Bartolo Colon the award purely based on wins.

 

So the question is, will the voters deny Johan because he "only" has two Cy's? The paradox here of course is their the voters would be punishing Santana for their own mistake!

Edited by My Dinner With Andre
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2 hours ago, My Dinner With Andre said:

Johan Santana is such a fascinating case. He should have won three straight Cy Youngs. He was that good. But the voters lost their minds one year and gave Bartolo Colon the award purely based on wins.

 

So the question is, will the voters deny Johan because he "only" has two Cy's? The paradox here of course is their the voters would be punishing Santana for their own mistake!

 

I think the roadblock on Johan getting into the HOF is that he only played 10 effective seasons, and was out of the league at 33 years old with 139 wins.  Nobody can argue his peak was near as dominant as any, but he flamed out way too early.  I doubt having 3 CY vs 2 CY would make a huge difference for voters - it's the short career.  

 

He wasn't even a full time starter until 2004, and his last effective season was 2010.  To me he falls into the same category as Lincecum where you have to weigh dominance over a short period of time versus success over a long period (like Glavine).  Right now voters seem to favor the longevity guys.

 

Also FWIW in 2005 Santana should have won, but he was actually #3 in CY voting behind Colon and Mariano Rivera.

Edited by handyandy86
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1 hour ago, handyandy86 said:

 

I think the roadblock on Johan getting into the HOF is that he only played 10 effective seasons, and was out of the league at 33 years old with 139 wins.  Nobody can argue his peak was near as dominant as any, but he flamed out way too early.  I doubt having 3 CY vs 2 CY would make a huge difference for voters - it's the short career.  

 

He wasn't even a full time starter until 2004, and his last effective season was 2010.  To me he falls into the same category as Lincecum where you have to weigh dominance over a short period of time versus success over a long period (like Glavine).  Right now voters seem to favor the longevity guys.

 

Also FWIW in 2005 Santana should have won, but he was actually #3 in CY voting behind Colon and Mariano Rivera.

Don't disagree, but look at Koufax career, and tell me the huge difference. Both incredibly elite for a short period; ~10 seasons, 6 peak elite seasons. 

I will admit, and I know I'm in the minority, that I prefer elite peak greatness over longevity. Give me 11 40 HR seasons (440) over 20 25 HR seasons (the almighty 500 HR club).

An example, when I think of the best, most feared hitters of the 90s, it's Bonds, Griffey, Frank Thomas, McGwire/Sosa...and Albert Belle. I'm not going to try to make a case for Belle being a HOFer, but he's closer (to me) than most give credit for. 

I'd love to know the thoughts on Koufax by @shakestreet who is at the opposite spectrum of me re: HOF and definitely likes the totality of the final numbers. 

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51 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Don't disagree, but look at Koufax career, and tell me the huge difference. Both incredibly elite for a short period; ~10 seasons, 6 peak elite seasons. 

I will admit, and I know I'm in the minority, that I prefer elite peak greatness over longevity. Give me 11 40 HR seasons (440) over 20 25 HR seasons (the almighty 500 HR club).

An example, when I think of the best, most feared hitters of the 90s, it's Bonds, Griffey, Frank Thomas, McGwire/Sosa...and Albert Belle. I'm not going to try to make a case for Belle being a HOFer, but he's closer (to me) than most give credit for. 

I'd love to know the thoughts on Koufax by @shakestreet who is at the opposite spectrum of me re: HOF and definitely likes the totality of the final numbers. 

You would like to know if I think Sandy Koufax should have been inducted in the Hall. I do know he was a dominating pitcher who took the ball every four days and pitched till his arm fell off. The game was totally different, a pitcher started the game and finished it.... He made it on the first ballot, so I can't say he shouldn't be in the Hall.

 

personal side notes -- his final season I was nine years old. Yea I am old. I also have two Sandy Koufax cards- 1965 & 66

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Looking closer at Koufax, and listening to you @shakestreet when the game was different (it was) made me think again about Jack Morris. He was the tail end of that era. Interested in people's thoughts. Didn't have the shiny ERA, but was one of the premier pitchers of the 80s. And maybe we judge the ERA/WHIP by today's standards, and maybe we shouldn't. I looked at his page and there are things we won't see again. Like 1983, when he threw over 293 IP & 20 complete games (and STILL had a 3.34 ERA!). 

Won 254 games. 

3 time World Series champ, on 3 different teams (and probably considered the Ace on all 3, DET, MIN, TOR). This includes a 10 inning game 7 win, something unlikely to be seen again. 

Would love to know people's thoughts on Morris. His career 3.90 ERA/1.296 WHIP suggests no, but does Morris belong?

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Considering the data that show pitchers performance regress each time thru the order. Comparing pitchers in the modern era to a time when complete games were common place... Is just simply not going to work.  Kofax had 27 CG's each of his last 2 years in the league, while maintaining a high K% and low ERA. In context that is amazing, Jonah has 15 CG his entire career.

 

Jack Morris was always solid and apart of that era of finishing games..but he never really stuck me as a HOF.  Just a Hall of really good with a long career. Just IMO.. He had a career 105 ERA+ 

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9 hours ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Don't disagree, but look at Koufax career, and tell me the huge difference. Both incredibly elite for a short period; ~10 seasons, 6 peak elite seasons. 

I will admit, and I know I'm in the minority, that I prefer elite peak greatness over longevity. Give me 11 40 HR seasons (440) over 20 25 HR seasons (the almighty 500 HR club).

An example, when I think of the best, most feared hitters of the 90s, it's Bonds, Griffey, Frank Thomas, McGwire/Sosa...and Albert Belle. I'm not going to try to make a case for Belle being a HOFer, but he's closer (to me) than most give credit for. 

I'd love to know the thoughts on Koufax by @shakestreet who is at the opposite spectrum of me re: HOF and definitely likes the totality of the final numbers. 

Koufax was kind of the guy I was thinking about and he is pretty much one of the few who are in the HOF and was not an accumulator.  

Koufax had 5 elite years - he had one other good season but ERA was mid 3's WHIP was 1.2, thats not really HOF stuff. 

* Koufax in that 5 year span had 3 CY Youngs and 1 MVP - Johan won 2, and that 3rd one was actually a better ERA than the other 2 but some of his other numbers started to slip, his K's were down and WHIP was up.  

* Koufax MVP - 1, Johan - 0

* Postseason, and this is probably what got Koufax somewhat over the top was he was leading a team to world titles, his World Series ERA was .95 and he won 2 World Series MVP, Santana's postseason numbers were not very good and in the years he was leading the staff they didnt avance past the Div series. 

 

Give me Johan all day over guys like Don Sutton, Phil Niekro or Bert Blyleven

 

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