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19 minutes ago, fletch44 said:

 

I see Henderson with a slightly higher career OBP and OPS. Raines .385/.810. Rickey .401/.820. Are you using something else ?

Yes, I looked at one of his late season totals somehow. 

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1 hour ago, absknicks said:

A lot of those 50/50s are incredibly generous. Pedroia? No shot. Kinsler? No chance. Jon Lester? No chance. 

 

Goldy, Stanton and Altuve it's way too early to tell. 

Lester is only 33, closing in on 2000 K's, has 154 wins, and has played for two of the storied franchises in baseball history.  .He's 9th career WAR among pitchers.  He's got 3 top 5 CY voting seasons.  He's been a stud in the post season too.  I think he's got a legit shot with 60-80 more wins, 2700 plus K's and a couple more top 5 CY seasons.

 

Pedroia is also 33.  Closing in on 1800 hits, has 139 homers, 716 RBI, is a career .301 hitter.  He has a ROY and a MVP.  He's 9th career active WAR among position players, and he plays a minus offence position.  I think he has a legit shot with 2500 hits, 200 plus homers, and 1000 plus RBI and a .290 plus average.  If he plays 7 more seasons and averages 2.5 WAR for them, he's closing in on 70.

 

Kinsler is 35.  Closing in on 1800 hits, has 221 homers, has 816 RBI and is a .275 career hitter.  He's 8th career active WAR among position players, again at a minus offensive position.  Of the 3 you listed, he probably has the least likely shot.  Still impressive however.

 

 

Barring injury the 3 young guys are headed to the HALL. 

 

 

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21 minutes ago, Nails101010 said:

Lester is only 33, closing in on 2000 K's, has 154 wins, and has played for two of the storied franchises in baseball history.  .He's 9th career WAR among pitchers.  He's got 3 top 5 CY voting seasons.  He's been a stud in the post season too.  I think he's got a legit shot with 60-80 more wins, 2700 plus K's and a couple more top 5 CY seasons.

 

Pedroia is also 33.  Closing in on 1800 hits, has 139 homers, 716 RBI, is a career .301 hitter.  He has a ROY and a MVP.  He's 9th career active WAR among position players, and he plays a minus offence position.  I think he has a legit shot with 2500 hits, 200 plus homers, and 1000 plus RBI and a .290 plus average.  If he plays 7 more seasons and averages 2.5 WAR for them, he's closing in on 70.

 

Kinsler is 35.  Closing in on 1800 hits, has 221 homers, has 816 RBI and is a .275 career hitter.  He's 8th career active WAR among position players, again at a minus offensive position.  Of the 3 you listed, he probably has the least likely shot.  Still impressive however.

 

 

Barring injury the 3 young guys are headed to the HALL. 

 

 

 

Repeating it over and over doesn't make it any more true. I respect your opinion, just think you're overstating it and a bit off on the guys you deem HoF worthy compared to the reality of the caliber of players who get in. 

 

All three of those guys have had really nice careers but there's far better players that have been left out of the hall. None of those guys are particularly close to consideration, IMO. 

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1 hour ago, absknicks said:

 

Repeating it over and over doesn't make it any more true. I respect your opinion, just think you're overstating it and a bit off on the guys you deem HoF worthy compared to the reality of the caliber of players who get in. 

 

All three of those guys have had really nice careers but there's far better players that have been left out of the hall. None of those guys are particularly close to consideration, IMO. 

Fair enough....certainly wasn't trying to be redundant, simply indicating why I though each of the 3 were roughly 50/50 guys.

All 3 have careers still very much in progress.  So I guess we shall see.  This is what makes this such a great topic.

 

 

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36 minutes ago, ComericanPie said:

Forgive me if I missed it, but not one mention of Jeter playing SS and Damon playing OF? That's pretty significant. Look at Albert Belle or Kenny Lofton. Bobby Abreu. Those guys would be 1st ballot locks if they were middle infielders. 

Sorry. This article is ridiculous. 

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15 minutes ago, FouLLine said:

 

Joey Votto is going to end his career with a better triple slash line than Miguel Cabrera. 

I think Votto ends up in the Hall too.  I love the guy.  What worries me is what his counting stats will look like.  HR, RBI, hits might be below par compared to other HOF 1st basemen.

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47 minutes ago, Nails101010 said:

I think Votto ends up in the Hall too.  I love the guy.  What worries me is what his counting stats will look like.  HR, RBI, hits might be below par compared to other HOF 1st basemen.

 

I have this funny feeling Votto stays an elite hitter a lot longer than most guys do.

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1 hour ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Forgive me if I missed it, but not one mention of Jeter playing SS and Damon playing OF? That's pretty significant. Look at Albert Belle or Kenny Lofton. Bobby Abreu. Those guys would be 1st ballot locks if they were middle infielders. 

Sorry. This article is ridiculous. 

Well, it makes perfect sense when you consider the source. A bunch of Mets fans who had to watch Jeter bring home a bunch of championships across town.

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6 hours ago, ryno1980 said:

 

I realize offense is weighed more heavily and should be, but Rolen won eight gold gloves and his offensive numbers aren't that far off (both just over 30" homers and 2,000 hits, .855 OPS to Edgar's .933) from Martinez, who obviously provided nothing to half the game.

 

 

An .855 OPS is "not that far off" from .933?

 

Ok.

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3 hours ago, parrothead said:

When you look at Jeff Kent's numbers which are far superior to Utley from what I can see which includes fact he I think is all time leading HR for 2B and he gets no love whatsoever on the voting, I cant see how Utley goes in. 

 

 

I'd look a little closer at this. 

Utley was the best second baseman in baseball for five years. 

Had five seasons by fWAR that rank among the top 64 in baseball history by a second baseman, while Kent has two in the top 82 and a third best around 250.

If you take defense out, Kent's best offensive season (20th) is better than Utleys (36th), but defense and baserunning matter. 

Kent is No. 1 in homers and RBI so he should be in, but idk how you dismiss Utley just because of that. Both are great in their own way.

 

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27 minutes ago, 89Topps said:

 

An .855 OPS is "not that far off" from .933?

 

Ok.

 

I didn't say that. I was conceding that Edgar was superior offensively.

I chose three stats to compare, the hit and homer totals are a wash and there is a clear edge for Edgar in OPS. Collectively, yes, not like one guy has a 200 homer edge. 

 

But how does eight gold gloves compare to sits in the dugout?

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6 minutes ago, ryno1980 said:

 

I didn't say that. 

I chose three stats to compare, the hit and homer totals are a wash and there is a clear edge for Edgar in OPS. Collectively, yes, not like one guy has a 200 homer edge. 

 

But how does eight gold gloves compare to sits in the dugout?

 

"his offensive numbers aren't that far off (both just over 300 homers and 2,000 hits, .855 OPS to Edgar's .933) from Martinez"

 

If you didn't mean to indicate their OPS' were close, then that sentence is confusingly worded.

 

And I made no comment on Rolen's defense or his HOF candidacy.  Was merely pointing out their OPS' are not that close.

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3 minutes ago, 89Topps said:

 

"his offensive numbers aren't that far off (both just over 300 homers and 2,000 hits, .855 OPS to Edgar's .933) from Martinez"

 

If you didn't mean to indicate their OPS' were close, then that sentence is confusingly worded.

 

And I made no comment on Rolen's defense or his HOF candidacy.  Was merely pointing out their OPS' are not that close.

 

Again, I chose three stats. Two were a wash, one it was clear who had the edge and by how much. Was just pointing out that counting stats are a wash, Edgar clearly above in rate stats. 

I used the numbers specifically to show where Edgar had him beat if you compared them. My bad if that wasn't worded well.

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8 minutes ago, ryno1980 said:

 

Again, I chose three stats. Two were a wash, one it was clear who had the edge and by how much. Was just pointing out that counting stats are a wash, Edgar clearly above in rate stats. 

I used the numbers specifically to show where Edgar had him beat if you compared them. My bad if that wasn't worded well.

 

Ok.

 

Yea, they're close in doubles (514-517), & RBIs (1261-1287).

 

Edgar trumps him pretty significantly in average (.312-.281), OBP (.418-.364), slugging (.515-.490), wRC (1606-1321), walks (1283-899) & strike outs (1202-1410).

 

Does Rolen's D make up for those discrepancies?  WAR thinks so.  Rolen has a career bWAR of 70 over 2038 games, while Edgar is at 68.3 over 2055.

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Locks

Miggy

Pujols

Ichiro

Kershaw

Beltre

Trout 

 

Almost there

Cano will be a lock in two or three years. He certainly has the accolades and his counting stats will be on par with or better than the greats by the time he hangs em up. 

Beltran should get in eventually, he has the numbers, memorable postseason success, and has managed to play at a high level for a long time.

Votto is someone who I think will get in when it's all said and done. The shift towards looking at more advanced stats obviously helps Votto - they definitely help "paint the picture" of a player so much better than just seeing how close they were to some of the more traditional counting stat milestones..

Posey has already accumulated impressive accolades, (in 9 years he already has a ROY, MVP, 3 Silver Sluggers and 3 World Series rings) and he is still the best catcher in baseball. If he manages to stay healthy and churn out a few more top-tier years, you're looking at a very impressive peak and an all-time great.

Scherzer will be a lock is he can sustain similar level of play for two or three more years. He's got 2 CY Youngs and was top 5 two more times, has a real chance at breaking 3000 K's, and has very impressive numbers all across the board. Even in his weaker seasons towards the start of his career, his stats weren't terrible.  

 

Worth a debate

King Felix (Depends how hard he falls off the cliff)

Greinke (Needs some more great seasons)

Utley

Holliday (7 All-Stars, 4 Silver Sluggers)

Molina 

Mauer (He's a no for me, he fell off and then some)

 

Other than Posey and Trout, I didn't include anyone who played less than 10 years. Obviously a ton of great talent that will be worthy of discussion in a few years. Also, with the way he's bounced back this year, I think McCutchen creeps up into the "Worth a debate" category.

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45 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

if the wizard got in so should yadi and torri hunter (especially hunter as he was head and shoulders better swinging it)

 

Beltran before Torri.  Andruw before Torri.

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No doubt Yadi gets in. Best defensive catcher in the game and impacted his team more than any numbers can show. His offensive numbers for a catcher are good (probably not great but good). There's no doubt in my mind he gets in the hall 

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On 7/31/2017 at 1:57 PM, Backdoor Slider said:

Forgive me if I missed it, but not one mention of Jeter playing SS and Damon playing OF? That's pretty significant. Look at Albert Belle or Kenny Lofton. Bobby Abreu. Those guys would be 1st ballot locks if they were middle infielders. 

Sorry. This article is ridiculous. 

I mean look, it's just something to think about. I'm a lifelong Yankees fan and like Jeter. But when Damon was here, his on-field impact was literally just as good despite the defensive/throwing deficiencies. Defensive positioning is factored in far too often when we talk about who the superior player is. I recognize that Jeter is technically one of the best offensive players to ever play the SS position and is tougher to replace, so all in all I would say he does have an edge over Damon for sure.

 

But the Hall of Fame selection simply doesn't properly represent higher-impact players (in any sport really), it represents more statistically/accolade decorated players. Johnny Damon's impact on the lineup was largely comparable to Jeter's when they played together, though certainly Yankee Stadium is more favorable to lefties. If Damon played 1995-2012 on the Yankees... yeah. He'd probably be viewed as a hitter on par with Derek.

 

I just struggle when we talk about the "greatest" at any defensive position, and the amount we compare that to the offensive numbers. From an individual perspective, I believe your offensive game should carry a good amount more weight, in terms of evaluating you as a player. You take a look at Beltre and he's considered fringe Hall as a 3B, while Jeter as only a pretty-good defensive shortstop (at his peak) is a LOCK first-ballot HOFer. That is crazy to me. I struggle to think of any team that prime Jeter would generate more wins for than prime Beltre, even when you factor in the shallow talent pool at short.

 

I'm probably the only Yankee fan who would ever make a case AGAINST "The Captain", but reputation-wise he is quite possibly the biggest beneficiary of his playing environment in recent sports memory. Let's also not forget he probably should have shifted away from SS in '04, but didn't out of pride, and Alex (a far superior defensive SS to anyone with eyes) did the unselfish thing. His clutch factor was even overrated. Longevity is to be respected and perhaps even I don't appreciate it enough, but was there EVER a year when Derek Jeter had as much value as one of that year's elite power hitters? I struggle to cherry-pick even one.

 

I'm not saying Damon is a Hall of Famer, but if it came down to sheer on-field impact, I find it absurd to view DJ as auto first-ballot on the basis of his home ballpark, lineup-aided credentials, and market-inflated legacy, while Damon is laughed off as "hey, maybe if he hung around longer for 3K he'd have a case, but still no". I guess I just have some qualms with the criteria that HOF voters use, but hey. It ain't changing anytime soon, and I know I'm in the minority here.

 

For the record, Belle to me has a case for best hitter in an entire decade... his (possible) steroid use and treatment of the media have kept him out, but he really was that good. I don't know if the voters would ever forgive his conduct no matter what position he played.

 

Edited by ComericanPie
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