HOF or not HOF?

[Backdoor Slider 8,292]

@ComericanPie

 

We agree on a few things. Jeter was great, but also overrated as a defensive player and because he's "The Captain" on the Yankees. 

I think we also agree that Johnny Damon was very good, and probably underrated. 

My only point was that the entire article never even mentioned their positions, WHICH IS A HUGE FACTOR.

WAR takes that into account, and Damon finished his career at 44.5 fWAR, while Jeter finished at 71.8 fWAR. Basically, those numbers are easier to replace in the OF than they are at SS. That's important. 

Side note: Beltre is not considered "fringe Hall" by anyone with any type of knowledge of the game. He is already the 3rd or 4th greatest 3B EVER. I would bet large amounts of money that he will be a 1st ballot HOF. He's currently one of 5 players at any position ever to have 3,000 hits, 400 HR, 600 doubles. Oh, and he's also an elite defender with 5 (deserved) gold gloves. It is very like that he'll reach 500 HR, and at that point will be the only player EVER to have those distinctions. 

[ComericanPie 599]

 

14 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

@ComericanPie

 

We agree on a few things. Jeter was great, but also overrated as a defensive player and because he's "The Captain" on the Yankees. 

I think we also agree that Johnny Damon was very good, and probably underrated. 

My only point was that the entire article never even mentioned their positions, WHICH IS A HUGE FACTOR.

WAR takes that into account, and Damon finished his career at 44.5 fWAR, while Jeter finished at 71.8 fWAR. Basically, those numbers are easier to replace in the OF than they are at SS. That's important. 

Side note: Beltre is not considered "fringe Hall" by anyone with any type of knowledge of the game. He is already the 3rd or 4th greatest 3B EVER. I would bet large amounts of money that he will be a 1st ballot HOF. He's currently one of 5 players at any position ever to have 3,000 hits, 400 HR, 600 doubles. Oh, and he's also an elite defender with 5 (deserved) gold gloves. It is very like that he'll reach 500 HR, and at that point will be the only player EVER to have those distinctions. 

I do agree that it is relevant that Jeter played a rarer position. With only 8-9 "offensive" hitters in any lineup, the depth of guys who can play the OF will generally make a Jeter/any given OF combo more impactful than a Damon/any given SS combo. I'm certainly not trying to say that it's nothing; I just find that it gets a bit overstated at times. 

 

And yeah. It's about time that people have come around to Beltre, the last 3 years we've finally seen the "mainstream" catch up to the reality of the situation. But point taken, I agree that the last few Texas years have made it so that voters can't deny even the stats. But really, we can take Beltre's name out of that conversation and replace it with MANY other names of guys who were definitely better than Jeter though. Beltran, Cano will have a case over almost anyone on the 2B list and is a superior MI, etc. The list of guys who are given less re2pect than DJ, yet are comfortably more valuable to a team, is pretty long imo.

[seditious3 41]

On 7/31/2017 at 10:29 AM, shakestreet said:

Rickey reached the magic number ... Rock failed to

The Hall-of-Fame is for the elite 

 

Bags career was cut short so he is out.

As Bill James notes, The Hall of Fame is not for the elite.  It's not only Mays, Musial, Ruth, Aaron.

 

it's also Appling, Averill, Bottomley, White, Southworth, Rizzuto, Haines.  I'm not saying these guys don't beling (well, Rizzuto doesn't), but there are plenty of non-elite in.  And there are no magic numbers.

 

The 2 knocks against Raines are that he played the same time as Henderson, and played in the worst media market in baseball.  He is fully qualified and deserves to be in.

[fletch44 1,531]

3 minutes ago, seditious3 said:

As Bill James notes, The Hall of Fame is not for the elite.  It's not only Mays, Musial, Ruth, Aaron.

 

it's also Appling, Averill, Bottomley, White, Southworth, Rizzuto, Haines.  I'm not saying these guys don't beling (well, Rizzuto doesn't), but there are plenty of non-elite in.  And there are no magic numbers.

 

The 2 knocks against Raines are that he played the same time as Henderson, and played in the worst media market in baseball.  He is fully qualified and deserves to be in.

 

Don't forget Bill Mazeroski and his career .667 OPS.

[89Topps 2,726]

1 hour ago, ComericanPie said:

I mean look, it's just something to think about. I'm a lifelong Yankees fan and like Jeter. But when Damon was here, his on-field impact was literally just as good despite the defensive/throwing deficiencies. Defensive positioning is factored in far too often when we talk about who the superior player is. I recognize that Jeter is technically one of the best offensive players to ever play the SS position and is tougher to replace, so all in all I would say he does have an edge over Damon for sure.

 

But the Hall of Fame selection simply doesn't properly represent higher-impact players (in any sport really), it represents more statistically/accolade decorated players. Johnny Damon's impact on the lineup was largely comparable to Jeter's when they played together, though certainly Yankee Stadium is more favorable to lefties. If Damon played 1995-2012 on the Yankees... yeah. He'd probably be viewed as a hitter on par with Derek.

 

I just struggle when we talk about the "greatest" at any defensive position, and the amount we compare that to the offensive numbers. From an individual perspective, I believe your offensive game should carry a good amount more weight, in terms of evaluating you as a player. You take a look at Beltre and he's considered fringe Hall as a 3B, while Jeter as only a pretty-good defensive shortstop (at his peak) is a LOCK first-ballot HOFer. That is crazy to me. I struggle to think of any team that prime Jeter would generate more wins for than prime Beltre, even when you factor in the shallow talent pool at short.

 

I'm probably the only Yankee fan who would ever make a case AGAINST "The Captain", but reputation-wise he is quite possibly the biggest beneficiary of his playing environment in recent sports memory. Let's also not forget he probably should have shifted away from SS in '04, but didn't out of pride, and Alex (a far superior defensive SS to anyone with eyes) did the unselfish thing. His clutch factor was even overrated. Longevity is to be respected and perhaps even I don't appreciate it enough, but was there EVER a year when Derek Jeter had as much value as one of that year's elite power hitters? I struggle to cherry-pick even one.

 

I'm not saying Damon is a Hall of Famer, but if it came down to sheer on-field impact, I find it absurd to view DJ as auto first-ballot on the basis of his home ballpark, lineup-aided credentials, and market-inflated legacy, while Damon is laughed off as "hey, maybe if he hung around longer for 3K he'd have a case, but still no". I guess I just have some qualms with the criteria that HOF voters use, but hey. It ain't changing anytime soon, and I know I'm in the minority here.

 

For the record, Belle to me has a case for best hitter in an entire decade... his (possible) steroid use and treatment of the media have kept him out, but he really was that good. I don't know if the voters would ever forgive his conduct no matter what position he played.

 

 

Adrian Beltre is not a considered a fringe HOF'er, at least not to those who know what they're talking about.

[Dylanfan66 174]

Beltre should go in on the first ballot. Especially since third baseman are very rare in the HOF.

[Low and Away 1,574]

For those discounting Mauer just check his stats. Disregard a couple of years after he had a severe concussion as he admitted suffering from blurred vision making the ball harder to see.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mauerjo01.shtml

 

 

 

 

[jb_power 3,512]

3 hours ago, Low and Away said:

For those discounting Mauer just check his stats. Disregard a couple of years after he had a severe concussion as he admitted suffering from blurred vision making the ball harder to see.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mauerjo01.shtml

 

 

 

 

 

No, just NO

 

[Backdoor Slider 8,292]

4 minutes ago, jb_power said:

 

No, just NO

 

And he's still got a higher WAR than Yadier, who everyone seems to think is a lock ??‍♂️

[Low and Away 1,574]

14 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

And he's still got a higher WAR than Yadier, who everyone seems to think is a lock ??‍♂️

Part of the problem is he is being judged as a 1st baseman and those years don't stack up. Which is funny as Martinez is borderline because he was a DH but Ortiz becomes a lock as a DH 

[Cmilne23 10,559]

4 hours ago, Dylanfan66 said:

Beltre should go in on the first ballot. Especially since third baseman are very rare in the HOF.

He won't be first.  He's similar to Biggio.  The "longevity" to stats is why he'll get in. And he should absolutely.  But first ballot is for true dominant players of their time.  Beltre wasn't that.  He was a really good player, for many years.  And why he'll get in on ballot 2 or 3 most likely.

[My Dinner With Andre 5,805]

There's one active player that hasn't been mentioned yet that has flown under the radar but really racked up that WAR.

[Cmilne23 10,559]

2 minutes ago, My Dinner With Andre said:

There's one active player that hasn't been mentioned yet that has flown under the radar but really racked up that WAR.

Ian Kinsler, or Longoria?

[My Dinner With Andre 5,805]

Just now, Cmilne23 said:

Ian Kinsler, or Longoria?

 

I was thinking Longoria

 

 

[agk47 45]

On 2017-07-30 at 6:16 PM, My Dinner With Andre said:

 

Halladay, Johan Santana and to a lesser degree Lincecum will be interesting cases.

 

If guys ultimately aren't going to accumulate the traditional counting stats (wins, innings, K's, etc), how does the evaluation process evolve.

 

Maybe, down the road, winning two Cy Youngs alone becomes good enough.

 

 

Hallady is a class above those two. The only question is if he should have been a first balloter.

 

Santana is borderline, I'll grant you that, but lincecum isn't even in the convo for the hall.

[Cmilne23 10,559]

3 minutes ago, My Dinner With Andre said:

 

I was thinking Longoria

 

 

31 and still going strong.  About halfway to 3000 hits.  257 homers.  Hasn't won a gold glove or made an AS game in 7 years though.  Likely will go as a really good player of his era.

Edited August 2, 2017 by Cmilne23

[Backdoor Slider 8,292]

17 minutes ago, Cmilne23 said:

He won't be first.  He's similar to Biggio.  The "longevity" to stats is why he'll get in. And he should absolutely.  But first ballot is for true dominant players of their time.  Beltre wasn't that.  He was a really good player, for many years.  And why he'll get in on ballot 2 or 3 most likely.

I don't think you're factoring in defense, or the fact that he'll likely end his career 3,000+/500+ HR.

He's already either past or along side of Boggs, Brett, Chipper, & Brooks among all time 3B. https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/jaws_3B.shtml

[jfazz23 2,530]

4 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

I don't think you're factoring in defense, or the fact that he'll likely end his career 3,000+/500+ HR.

He's already either past or along side of Boggs, Brett, Chipper, & Brooks among all time 3B. https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/jaws_3B.shtml

beltre first ballot IMO

[Cmilne23 10,559]

6 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

I don't think you're factoring in defense, or the fact that he'll likely end his career 3,000+/500+ HR.

He's already either past or along side of Boggs, Brett, Chipper, & Brooks among all time 3B. https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/jaws_3B.shtml

Biggio was a great defender with 400+ SBs.  I'm a big Beltre fan.  I just reserve the first ballot votes for guys like Griffey Jr, Randy Johnson, Pedro, Big Hurt, Gwynn.  Aka guys who were clear elite of elite during their era.  I view Beltre more in the Biggio category of great players who produced at a level longer than usually expected.  He's second or third IMO.

[Nails101010 15]

6 minutes ago, agk47 said:

 

 

Hallady is a class above those two. The only question is if he should have been a first balloter.

 

Santana is borderline, I'll grant you that, but lincecum isn't even in the convo for the hall.

I think Roy H. gets in.....and he should.

Johann was great, just not long enough.....139 wins just won't cut it.  He has no shot.

Lince doesn't either....just not great near long enough.

 

Sabermetrics have changed the way people vote for pitchers, and wins are slowly being devalued, but they will never be disregarded.  Unless you're Koufax (maybe a couple others) longevity matters.  I think it should to a large extent too.

[Backdoor Slider 8,292]

4 minutes ago, Cmilne23 said:

Biggio was a great defender with 400+ SBs.  I'm a big Beltre fan.  I just reserve the first ballot votes for guys like Griffey Jr, Randy Johnson, Pedro, Big Hurt, Gwynn.  Aka guys who were clear elite of elite during their era.  I view Beltre more in the Biggio category of great players who produced at a level longer than usually expected.  He's second or third IMO.

Fair. Lots of nuance in people's thoughts re: 1st ballot, etc. 

One point though, Fangraphs not only doesn't have Biggio as a good defender, but as a negative career defender. 

[My Dinner With Andre 5,805]

Should Tom Glavine be in HOF?

[Backdoor Slider 8,292]

3 minutes ago, My Dinner With Andre said:

Should Tom Glavine be in HOF?

Meh. No. A "good" SP who racked up wins on great teams. 

[merlin401 855]

I may be missing someone but here is my list of current players

 

lock right now:

pujols

miggy

ichiro

Beltre (moved to lock with 3000 hits)

 

likely in right now:

beltran

 

lock assuming nothing catastrophic occurs:

trout

kershaw

 

trajectory means they will be in assuming normal aging curve:

cano

votto

Posey 

bumgarner 

scherzer

altuve (long way to go obviously, along with the rest here)

goldy

stanton

harper

machado 

 

a case can be made but not sure

utley 

mauer 

Mccutchen (pending rest of career)

yadier 

Greinke 

king Felix 

 

special cases, steroids cloud: 

Ortiz (in, people love him anyway)

braun (out)

[merlin401 855]

1 hour ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Meh. No. A "good" SP who racked up wins on great teams. 

 

I think that is crazy!! A 300 game winner who was a six time top 3 in Cy young voting and a world champion?  How is that not a total obvious case? (And I hate the Braves)