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Chris Carson 2017 Season Outlook


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4 minutes ago, JJ1223 said:

This whole situation is so weird to me.  Granted I haven't watched any Hawks games yet.  I just don't understand what Pete is doing or how it is sustainable.  You're going to bellcow an UDFA with two proven vets getting 0 play?  I'm so confused... this whole backfield is the ultimate "wait and see" right now.

So much wrong with this post. 

 

1) Rawls and Lacy are definitely not proven backs. Rawls played well for half a season and has been injured. Lacy's play speaks for himself.

2) Carson was a 7th round pick, not an UDFA.

3) I'm not sure why you're so confused with a coach going for the best player?

4) What difference does it make what round or where a player comes from? If he's good, he's good. 

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4 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

I understand your roster construction but then where do you put him if you say low end RB2? To me that puts him like in an RB20-24 class and I just think that's too low. With his snap share through three games in comparison to what many other "lead backs" are doing, I have (and I haven't ranked them yet) a hard time not seeing him as being closer to the RB15 class. 

 

 

I agree it sounds low but in a PPR league, his upside is limited until he shows a more defined role in the pass game and/or he starts getting some rushing TDs. The guy is more than capable of getting 100 yards total but if it's in the form of 85 yards rushing and 2 catches for 15 yards with no TD, that's solid in standard but that's 12 points in PPR. To put that in context that would have been 25th this past week among RBs in PPR. Less than Ellington, who padded his stats with 5 catches. PPR is tricky and guys like Carson are viewed differently. Once he starts producing in those fashions that is missing right now - and no doubt it's way too early and have to imagine he'll get rushing TDs at some point, but I am speaking strictly based on my thoughts of him at this moment - he's not "set it and forget it" option in a PPR league unless you are stuck.

 

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7 minutes ago, iretirefromfantasy said:

Obviously he looks better than the 2 vets...

 

1 minute ago, oliminator123 said:

So much wrong with this post. 

 

1) Rawls and Lacy are definitely not proven backs. Rawls played well for half a season and has been injured. Lacy's play speaks for himself.

2) Carson was a 7th round pick, not an UDFA.

3) I'm not sure why you're so confused with a coach going for the best player?

4) What difference does it make what round or where a player comes from? If he's good, he's good. 

Re: 7th vs. UDFA, you're right, I was thinking of Clement in Philly (just came from the Smallwood thread), my mistake; however, the difference is negligible.  He was taken a whole 5 picks away from Mr. Irrelevant.

 

Lacy has two 1,000+ yard and 10+ TD seasons.  Rawls has 5 games of 100+ rushing yards including 1 game of 200+ in not even two full seasons worth of games.  If that's not proven then I'd like to know what your threshold is.

 

As far as the rest of it, Rawls and Lacy have both been given absolutely no chance to separate themselves.  They have 5 carries each.  Give them a real shot and they're still ineffective?  Then I'm right there with you.  They haven't been given a real opportunity yet and I don't see how that's even debatable. 

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1 minute ago, JJ1223 said:

 

Re: 7th vs. UDFA, you're right, I was thinking of Clement in Philly (just came from the Smallwood thread), my mistake; however, the difference is negligible.  He was taken a whole 5 picks away from Mr. Irrelevant.

 

Lacy has two 1,000+ yard and 10+ TD seasons.  Rawls has 5 games of 100+ rushing yards including 1 game of 200+ in not even two full seasons worth of games.  If that's not proven then I'd like to know what your threshold is.

 

As far as the rest of it, Rawls and Lacy have both been given absolutely no chance to separate themselves.  They have 5 carries each.  Give them a real shot and they're still ineffective?  Then I'm right there with you.  They haven't been given a real opportunity yet and I don't see how that's even debatable. 

 

Why havent Lacy or Rawles been given a real opportunity?

 

Is someone just hands down running away with the job in practice and games?

 

Rhetorical question is rhetorical.

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1 hour ago, ESquared said:

 

 

I agree it sounds low but in a PPR league, his upside is limited until he shows a more defined role in the pass game and/or he starts getting some rushing TDs. The guy is more than capable of getting 100 yards total but if it's in the form of 85 yards rushing and 2 catches for 15 yards with no TD, that's solid in standard but that's 12 points in PPR. To put that in context that would have been 25th this past week among RBs in PPR. Less than Ellington, who padded his stats with 5 catches. PPR is tricky and guys like Carson are viewed differently. Once he starts producing in those fashions that is missing right now - and no doubt it's way too early and have to imagine he'll get rushing TDs at some point, but I am speaking strictly based on my thoughts of him at this moment - he's not "set it and forget it" option in a PPR league unless you are stuck.

 

This is why my league will never be ppr. Ellington is fantasy relevant in ppr? Hilarious.

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47 minutes ago, JJ1223 said:

 

Re: 7th vs. UDFA, you're right, I was thinking of Clement in Philly (just came from the Smallwood thread), my mistake; however, the difference is negligible.  He was taken a whole 5 picks away from Mr. Irrelevant.

 

Lacy has two 1,000+ yard and 10+ TD seasons.  Rawls has 5 games of 100+ rushing yards including 1 game of 200+ in not even two full seasons worth of games.  If that's not proven then I'd like to know what your threshold is.

 

As far as the rest of it, Rawls and Lacy have both been given absolutely no chance to separate themselves.  They have 5 carries each.  Give them a real shot and they're still ineffective?  Then I'm right there with you.  They haven't been given a real opportunity yet and I don't see how that's even debatable. 

Rawls has been with the team for a couple years now.  I'm pretty sure Carroll knows what he has there.  Lacy has had all preseason to show what he can do.  I'm pretty sure Carroll like most NFL coaches doesn't care what anyone has done in the past, he's only interested in what they can do now and going forward.  He's clearly made the decision to go with Carson as his lead back, anyone can see that.  Doesn't matter what you, I, or anyone else thinks about who should be doing what.  Coach Pete has made his decision and from everything I've heard, the players on the team are backing that decision.  

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6 minutes ago, ohio#1eaglesfan said:

This is why my league will never be ppr. Ellington is fantasy relevant in ppr? Hilarious.

 

Yup, PPR can be frustrating like that.

 

Where Ellington's week 3 of 5 carries 22 yards 5 catches 59 yards is more fantasy points than Carson's Week 2 of 20 carries 93 yards 1 catch 7 yards.

 

But you adjust. That's why I had Theo Riddick on a bunch of teams last season and Duke Johnson on a bunch of teams this season.

 

Edited by ESquared
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1 hour ago, JJ1223 said:

This whole situation is so weird to me.  Granted I haven't watched any Hawks games yet.  I just don't understand what Pete is doing or how it is sustainable.  You're going to bellcow an UDFA with two proven vets getting 0 play?  I'm so confused... this whole backfield is the ultimate "wait and see" right now.

Anyone remember Arian Foster?  Yea, I think he was undrafted also.  So you can throw that point out the window.  Lacy proven vet??  He's lucky he's still has a job in the NFL at this point.  "Wait and see right now"??  It's too late bud, Carson already ran away with job.  Was proven this past Sunday.

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6 minutes ago, ohio#1eaglesfan said:

This is why my league will never be ppr. Ellington is fantasy relevant in ppr? Hilarious.

I hate PPR and refuse to ever play it. I don't like the idea that I can lose my week because Ty Montgomery caught 8 balls for 15 yards. It is incredibly stupid. 

 

Staying on topic:

3 minutes ago, TommyKramer said:

Rawls has been with the team for a couple years now.  I'm pretty sure Carroll knows what he has there.  Lacy has had all preseason to show what he can do.  I'm pretty sure Carroll like most NFL coaches doesn't care what anyone has done in the past, he's only interested in what they can do now and going forward.  He's clearly made the decision to go with Carson as his lead back, anyone can see that.  Doesn't matter what you, I, or anyone else thinks about who should be doing what.  Coach Pete has made his decision and from everything I've heard, the players on the team are backing that decision.  

You hit the nail on the head. Rawls is nothing special and can't stay healthy. Why bother wasting time on a player who is unreliable?

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7 minutes ago, oliminator123 said:

I hate PPR and refuse to ever play it. I don't like the idea that I can lose my week because Ty Montgomery caught 8 balls for 15 yards. It is incredibly stupid. 

 

Staying on topic:

You hit the nail on the head. Rawls is nothing special and can't stay healthy. Why bother wasting time on a player who is unreliable?

No different than losing to a RB that rushes for 30 yards and happens to fall into the endzone. Same points.

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5 minutes ago, JohnD said:

No different than losing to a RB that rushes for 30 yards and happens to fall into the endzone. Same points.

How can you equate scoring a touchdown, which is a universal way of assessing a player, vs garbage time catches that go 1 or 2 yards, something even lineman have done before?

 

Catches are not rare. Touchdowns are.

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4 minutes ago, oliminator123 said:

How can you equate scoring a touchdown, which is a universal way of assessing a player, vs garbage time catches that go 1 or 2 yards, something even lineman have done before?

 

Catches are not rare. Touchdowns are.

 

then why wasn't John Kuhn ever a valuable magick foosball commodity?

 

i mean, dude scored TDs, no?

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Just now, pastorofmuppets2 said:

 

then why wasn't John Kuhn ever a valuable magick foosball commodity?

 

i mean, dude scored TDs, no?

Because it couldn't be relied on. Same reason why Gillislee is unreliable. Or Tolbert. 

 

I understand why people like PPR, but it just takes an element of skill away from fantasy in my opinion. Allows for easier, cheap points that are undeserved. 

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Not to get side tracked but this is why I always liked 0.5PPR. I think it balances everything out well. Anyway, Carson is the main back and goal line back. There are only 32 teams and most of them aren't as good as Seattle. His value is lowered a bit in PPR because he likely just isn't going to get many catches. But to say he doesn't have much value in PPR is nonsense.

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14 minutes ago, oliminator123 said:

How can you equate scoring a touchdown, which is a universal way of assessing a player, vs garbage time catches that go 1 or 2 yards, something even lineman have done before?

 

Catches are not rare. Touchdowns are.

Touchdowns aren't rare. Catches and touchdowns typically happen every single game for both teams involved. Marcedes Lewis just scored three touchdowns in one game. You are telling me that you assess him at a higher value than Julio Jones?

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7 minutes ago, griffin727 said:

Not to get side tracked but this is why I always liked 0.5PPR. I think it balances everything out well. Anyway, Carson is the main back and goal line back. There are only 32 teams and most of them aren't as good as Seattle. His value is lowered a bit in PPR because he likely just isn't going to get many catches. But to say he doesn't have much value in PPR is nonsense.

 

I agree that saying that would be nonsense but I don't think anyone is saying that, unless I missed it. 

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2 minutes ago, JohnD said:

Touchdowns aren't rare. Catches and touchdowns typically happen every single game for both teams involved. Marcedes Lewis just scored three touchdowns in one game. You are telling me that you assess him at a higher value than Julio Jones?

Of course not. Because Lewis won't do this again. It's an outlier, which happens. 

 

How can you say touchdowns aren't rare when 10 is considered a really good amount for any non-QB player? 

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2 minutes ago, oliminator123 said:

Of course not. Because Lewis won't do this again. It's an outlier, which happens. 

 

How can you say touchdowns aren't rare when 10 is considered a really good amount for any non-QB player? 

 

ok,a player would need 60 receptions to equal that mark (60 points). 

 

six of one, half dozen of the other. 

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26 minutes ago, oliminator123 said:

I understand why people like PPR, but it just takes an element of skill away from fantasy in my opinion. Allows for easier, cheap points that are undeserved. 

 

Standard leagues have a much smaller quality player pool, which is fine for 8-10 team leagues, not so good for larger leagues though.

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