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Jaylen Brown 2017 - 2018 Season Outlook


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Top 5 player this year 

Now sell Brown back to the Hayward owner at a 1000% markup  

He's the 2nd leading scorer in the NBA right now

1 hour ago, tallball said:

I can't find a good trade for him. Will probably drop him when Batum is cleared to play. He's not that bad, but I'm not supposed to be punting FT%.

 

hes averaging 3 fts a game...how is that "punting ft"....

 

I have him, and no strong FT anchors, and still have won FT% every week.....

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12 hours ago, HK-47 said:

Seems like you are projecting his ceiling and I have no idea why you think he can get  to 1.5 steals a game. His per 36 was 1 last year, is 1.1 this year, and he was only at 0.8 steals a game in college in 28 min. Also, why do you think he will at least get to 70% ft? He was a bad ft shooter in college and hasn't shown any improvement there. It seems you are higher on him than some, and that's fine...but I just don't see how you can realistically expect those numbers when has not and is not showing any signs of being able to reach them.

You may be correct with the steals, he is only at 1 per game right now in 31 min. Maybe he will be a 1.0-1.2 spg guy this year, he just seems like a steal guy to me with his length and quickness. 

For ft%, i just think he will work very hard on it and see some sizeable improvements by mid-season. Just a projection though. He has a good shooting stroke and shotos 3s fairly well so with practice the ft% should improve, maybe not though who knows.

For counting stats my projection is at the higher end but I wouldn't say ceiling. It's only his second year and I think he will continue to improve throughout the season. Right now, he is already averaging 16 and 7 with 2 treys and 1 steal. 

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4 minutes ago, crocp said:

 

hes averaging 3 fts a game...how is that "punting ft"....

 

I have him, and no strong FT anchors, and still have won FT% every week.....

same, this is overblown big time. averaged over 80% ft every week and I don't even have any ft impact leaders, just several strong ft guys. If he starts going to line like 6 times a game it will be somewhat problematic but still...the ft punting thing is really funny to me. most teams in league have at least one if not several poor ft% players on their team, if brown is making you lose ft% you have bigger ft% issues on your team

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29 minutes ago, crocp said:

 

hes averaging 3 fts a game...how is that "punting ft"....

 

I have him, and no strong FT anchors, and still have won FT% every week.....

Not sure what you are looking at but he is shooting 4.6 a game.

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26 minutes ago, richg24 said:

You may be correct with the steals, he is only at 1 per game right now in 31 min. Maybe he will be a 1.0-1.2 spg guy this year, he just seems like a steal guy to me with his length and quickness. 

For ft%, i just think he will work very hard on it and see some sizeable improvements by mid-season. Just a projection though. He has a good shooting stroke and shotos 3s fairly well so with practice the ft% should improve, maybe not though who knows.

For counting stats my projection is at the higher end but I wouldn't say ceiling. It's only his second year and I think he will continue to improve throughout the season. Right now, he is already averaging 16 and 7 with 2 treys and 1 steal. 

Sure he could improve but at the same time it just seems you are higher on him than almost anyone else and I don’t think you’re being realistic with his projections based on what he has showed us thus far. There are simply zero signs that he will increase his steals by 50% and shoot better than 70% from the FT line. I’m not denying he has upside to some extent and can improve a bit, but at the same time gotta be realistic.

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8 minutes ago, HK-47 said:

Not sure what you are looking at but he is shooting 4.6 a game.

 

sorry, 4.6....I was looking at projections...

 

So he misses 2 FT's a game on average....maybe 7-8 a week...this is enough to consider a team "punt ft%"??

 

If you consider your team a punt ft% because of Jaylen, newsflash....you were a punt ft% without Jaylen

Edited by crocp
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3 minutes ago, HK-47 said:

Sure he could improve but at the same time it just seems you are higher on him than almost anyone else and I don’t think you’re being realistic with his projections based on what he has showed us thus far. There are simply zero signs that he will increase his steals by 50% and shoot better than 70% from the FT line. I’m not denying he has upside to some extent and can improve a bit, but at the same time gotta be realistic.

I agree with you, taking a closer look at the stats, a better high end projection for steals is 1.2-1.3 range I would say.

I don't think I am off with counting stats though considering he is already averaging 16 and 7 with 2 treys. Those are pretty nice numbers, also his fg% is 47% right now which is pretty solid. his value for my team is a bit inflated since i am punting assists. 

Edited by richg24
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2 minutes ago, richg24 said:

I agree with you, taking a closer look at the stats, a better high end projection for steals is 1.2-1.3 range I would say.

I don't think I am off with counting stats though considering he is already averaging 16 and 7 with 2 treys. Those are pretty nice numbers, also his fg% is 47% right now which is pretty solid. his value for my team is a bit inflated since i am punting assists. 

Fair enough but at the end of the day he is ranked 172nd in 9-cat for a reason. He simply has his flaws. I understand getting excited about a young player, or liking someone better than the masses, but also one must stay objective.

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7 minutes ago, crocp said:

 

sorry, 4.6....I was looking at projections...

 

So he misses 2 FT's a game on average....maybe 7-8 a week...this is enough to consider a team "punt ft%"??

 

If you consider your team a punt ft% because of Jaylen, newsflash....you were a punt ft% without Jaylen

I wasn’t the one who said that was simply pointing out the incorrect number of attempts. No matter how it’s sliced I’m sure we can agree that 56% at almost 5 attempts a game isn’t good...especially for a guard/wing.

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6 minutes ago, HK-47 said:

Fair enough but at the end of the day he is ranked 172nd in 9-cat for a reason. He simply has his flaws. I understand getting excited about a young player, or liking someone better than the masses, but also one must stay objective.

I don't care about BBM rankings too much. if you take away the ft% out of the ranking, i'm sure he enters the top 100 easily. Just like guys with super low turnovers get artificially valued super high, but no one in their right mind would take them at their ranking, thinking of guys like Otto Porter, or Kyle Korver and Danny Green in past years. If a player is helping your team, don't worry about their ranking - especially if he is a player that you got for free or for a last round pick. 

 

I doubt there are too many super late picks or wire grabs like Brown that can get you 16 and 7 with 2 threes and a steal. You also have to factor in growth, he is only in his 2nd year and he is being trusted with a large role that he will not lose all season. Most guys like him break out in their 3rd or 4th years, he is starting to break out already, so I would not be shocked if 2nd half of season he explodes further, but it seems a lot of guys on here would be.

 

Lastly, i touched on it earlier but his environment is perfect ros. great coach running an offense friendly system, boston will competing for good playoff positioning and there are no foreseeable risks to brown in his ros outlook

Edited by richg24
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Not trying to jump into this whole argument you all got going on, but I would like to point out the double standard that's getting thrown around.

 

Most people are arguing that he wasn't a good FT shooter in college or his rookie year as a point that his FT shooting won't go up as this year goes on, but everyone is ignoring the fact that his FT shooting in college/rookie season wasn't as bad as it is right now. He shot 65% in college and 68% in his rookie year (which is usually a low year for FT%). If he pulls it back up to 66.5% (an average of his last 2 season playing ball), that's not much worse than Lebron has given people in the past.

Edited by FroButtons
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2 hours ago, richg24 said:

I don't care about BBM rankings too much. if you take away the ft% out of the ranking, i'm sure he enters the top 100 easily. Just like guys with super low turnovers get artificially valued super high, but no one in their right mind would take them at their ranking, thinking of guys like Otto Porter, or Kyle Korver and Danny Green in past years. If a player is helping your team, don't worry about their ranking - especially if he is a player that you got for free or for a last round pick. 

 

I doubt there are too many super late picks or wire grabs like Brown that can get you 16 and 7 with 2 threes and a steal. You also have to factor in growth, he is only in his 2nd year and he is being trusted with a large role that he will not lose all season. Most guys like him break out in their 3rd or 4th years, he is starting to break out already, so I would not be shocked if 2nd half of season he explodes further, but it seems a lot of guys on here would be.

 

Lastly, i touched on it earlier but his environment is perfect ros. great coach running an offense friendly system, boston will competing for good playoff positioning and there are no foreseeable risks to brown in his ros outlook

Ok you don’t have to care about the rankings but they are what they are and your projections aren’t realistic which was my initial point and it still stands. I assume you are the one one on BM claiming he would be a top 50-60 player going forward and average 0.8 blocks a game? I’ll move on from this but I stated you gotta be realistic man, no matter how much you like the kid.

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2 hours ago, crocp said:

 

sorry, 4.6....I was looking at projections...

 

So he misses 2 FT's a game on average....maybe 7-8 a week...this is enough to consider a team "punt ft%"??

 

If you consider your team a punt ft% because of Jaylen, newsflash....you were a punt ft% without Jaylen

The problem is that guards are supposed to keep you FT% above 80%, because the bigs are usually shooting around 70%. One of the guards shooting 50% makes a big difference.

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2 hours ago, FroButtons said:

Not trying to jump into this whole argument you all got going on, but I would like to point out the double standard that's getting thrown around.

 

Most people are arguing that he wasn't a good FT shooter in college or his rookie year as a point that his FT shooting won't go up as this year goes on, but everyone is ignoring the fact that his FT shooting in college/rookie season wasn't as bad as it is right now. He shot 65% in college and 68% in his rookie year (which is usually a low year for FT%). If he pulls it back up to 66.5% (an average of his last 2 season playing ball), that's not much worse than Lebron has given people in the past.

He was claiming that Brown should be able to shoot 70% and that was what I disagreed with. I don’t doubt that he can shoot better than the current 56%, and maybe he hits the 70% mark, but again claiming he SHOULD shoot that percentage makes no sense based on past and current production from the ft line. That was my initial point regarding this.

Edited by HK-47
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9 hours ago, crocp said:

 

sorry, 4.6....I was looking at projections...

 

So he misses 2 FT's a game on average....maybe 7-8 a week...this is enough to consider a team "punt ft%"??

 

If you consider your team a punt ft% because of Jaylen, newsflash....you were a punt ft% without Jaylen

That is pretty significant actually...especially from one of your guards. He also isn't that spectacular in any other category. There likely are better options just chilling on your wire right now. 

Edited by samer42
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7 hours ago, samer42 said:

That is pretty significant actually...especially from one of your guards. He also isn't that spectacular in any other category. There likely are better options just chilling on your wire right now. 

 

If your team is punting FT% with Brown , you were probably punting ft or being weak at it without him.

And for a punt FT team, Brown is early 6th round value. 

So if you don't like him send him to the team with Drummond/DAJ and they will love him

But dont drop for WW guys..

 

BTW : If u take out the game vs OKC where he shot 3/8 FT , he's shooting a 0.725% from the line

Edited by manolo_
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His current avg rank on yahoo is 184th. This guy is so overrated for fantasy. I would have droped him in the one roto league I drafted him if  I couldnt have found a trade partner. (traded him for Collins). 2 missed fts per game is pretty tough in roto leagues.

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1 hour ago, Chrizz said:

His current avg rank on yahoo is 184th. This guy is so overrated for fantasy. I would have droped him in the one roto league I drafted him if  I couldnt have found a trade partner. (traded him for Collins). 2 missed fts per game is pretty tough in roto leagues.

 

If you punt FT, he's 7th round material. Punt FT and AST and he's 5th. Could fit some builds. Last night he hit all his FT's so here's to hoping. Still, personally I'm contemplating trading him.

Edited by Preparing the Kool-Aid
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5 hours ago, Preparing the Kool-Aid said:

 

If you punt FT, he's 7th round material. Punt FT and AST and he's 5th. Could fit some builds. Last night he hit all his FT's so here's to hoping. Still, personally I'm contemplating trading him.

 

I mean if you punted 1 or 2 of the worst categories from any single player's production, they would obviously see a boost in their value. That doesn't alter the reality of his current overall ranking. Also, why should I even consider punting FT% and assessing his value independent of FT% if he's not a "punt FT" guy as you all are saying 

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11 minutes ago, samer42 said:

 

I mean if you punted 1 or 2 of the worst categories from any single player's production, they would obviously see a boost in their value. That doesn't alter the reality of his current overall ranking. Also, why should I even consider punting FT% and assessing his value independent of FT% if he's not a "punt FT" guy as you all are saying 

 

I haven't taken part in the the convo of whether he is or isn't a punt FT guy. But I pointed out that depending on your build he might not be as trash as his overall ranking would suggest. Has solid minutes (didn't look up usage) and is putting up fairly solid numbers besides the FT, indicated by the massive bump in rankings if you punt FT. I e.g. have a punt AST build so I don't care that he's bottom of the barrel also in AST. The FT does hurt though since I don't have enough high volume/high percentage FT shooters to compensate, so I'm contemplating moving him. But if you have a punt FT build, then Jaylen has much more upside.

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