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Nerlens Noel 2017-2018 Season Outlook


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^Carlisle isn't getting canned anytime soon. His leash is long and they don't expect to compete this year. At the end of the day Cuban will probably show loyalty because winning isn't in their best interests. When you don't have to win there is no one to blame or set up as the fall guy. This roster is an equally impressive blend of ancient and low upside, with just enough of a dash of upside youth to keep you knowing they are actually an NBA franchise. They need to accelerate their rebuild if they want to get out of this anytime soon. They were given the gift of Noel for close to nothing and haven't been able to salvage the situation. It is early, but being one of the worst teams in the NBA isn't going to be fun for that roster so mentally things could unravel. Or they just go full rebuild and let the youth play. It is early and things could and most likely will change. If they don't change then the Mavs just need to rip the bandaid off and trade Noel when his contract becomes tradeable. Not committing to a full blown rebuild when your roster is on the downside is the worst place a franchise can be in today's NBA. 

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"Damn, we have a sexual harassment scandal on our hands. Better give Nerlens Noel 20mpg!"

The number of pages in his thread will exceed his season minutes total by the trade deadline.

Since he's unrestricted, any team buying on him will consider him a rental.  If he's a rental, they need to be doing a serious playoff/ring push.  it's early, of course, but what teams that might want to do that have a draft pick that the Mavs would consider in exchange for him?  I don't know, but you'd think they'd want to get something back considering it's 1000000% obvious he's not going to be on that team next year no matter what.

 

Now the question is would the Mavs and Carlisle play him more to showcase him?  They don't seem like the team to do something like that, to be honest.  And I'm not sure he's the type of player you do that for anyway.

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MFFL here...

 

Yeah, this doesn't look good.  Cuban won't admit to a tank (at least not until the season's over, as he did last year), and Carlisle just isn't the coach to ever do that.  However, that's honestly what this season has to be.  Hell, we can't even beat the Kings, and I wouldn't be surprised if we were the worst team in the West (yup, worse than the Suns).  Problem is that we're still trying to win.  Carlisle is STILL playing some super-small-ball lineups with 3 guards and Dirk at 5, and I have no idea why DSJ is losing minutes and friggin Devin Harris and JJB are getting more than 20.  This is the time to groom our future, to let young 'uns make mistakes, and yet DSJ is on the bench, Harry B can't make it to the line, and Noel is playing less than Dwight Powell.  We picked a bad time to tank, especially with the new draft rules in place, too.  If we're trying to do the usual Mavs' offseason "delusions of grandeur"  move, big FAs like Cousins are definitely not coming to this hot mess.

 

Back to Noel, the Mavs don't have any reason to play him.  When he balked on their initial $17M offer to bet on himself, he sealed his fate.  Why would they, being a rebuilding team, play a guy who is miserable there and would not only likely balk them next season even IF he played well this year, but also demand the max if so?  Yeah, they can showcase him for a trade.  Problem is the Mavs don't have any leverage in a trade.  If Noel sucks this season, they've wasted their time.  If he does well later on (unlikely), Noel's STILL going to be battling far better FAs (Cousins, DAJ, Lebron, KD, PG, Melo) or more price-efficient FAs (RoLo, Kanter, Randle, Len, Favors) in terms of forwards/bigs for the market next offseason, meaning not many teams would offer him the max contract he's seeking anyway, let alone trade the Mavs anything worthwhile for him.  Furthermore, by playing him more minutes, the Mavs also risk Noel getting hurt (as he's oft to do, which is the reason why we didn't give him max this year), and he'd become even more useless as a potential trade chip.

 

Right now, the best thing to do is let Harry B and DSJ play as much as possible.  When Seth comes back, he'll likely get a TON of minutes at 1-3 in Carlisle's small ball lineups too.  Dirk's probably going to get about 25 mpg for his twilight parade.  If we can find a suitor for Wes or Noel, getting a draft pick or a young player back, we do it.  As for Noel...honestly, at this point, he's just gotta suck it up and carve out a strong bench role.  If he can play 25 good minutes off the bench at C, it'd be good for both him and the Mavs.  But right now, it's an ugly situation for both parties.  In terms of fantasy, if you've got Noel (I do), I honestly can't even advise you holding him, as he's probably hurting your team more than helping right now, unless you can bench him.  He'd be trash in a shallow league, barely decent in a 12-teamer, and only a stash in a 14-deep.  And odds are, unless you've somehow drafted godlike and are winning WITH Noel on your roster, if you drop him, it's likely nobody will stash him, so you can always grab him back up if his situation improves somehow.

 

Anyway, sorry for the rant.  Hope it's "Noel" enough to warrant a Mavs' tirade, lol.

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It's actually the best time to tank because this is the last season with better odds and a great rookie pool with lots of bigs. The new draft rules will apply starting on 2019 afaik.

 

Best case scenario is Noel just sucks it up and play Carlisle's way while we lose lol. This increases his potential trade value, develop a better relationship with the org, play better within the system, and we might just pay him the max if he is not traded as we miss out on the big name FAs... again.

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@MWon's post kinda reminds me of the late 80s early 90s Celtics.  As a repeat threepeat Bulls fan, the Celtics were talked about often.  When owner Jerry Reinsdorf and GM Jerry Krause broke up the Bulls, they explicitly stated,  repeatedly, that they were trying to avoid what those Celtics did.  As in, the Celtics refused to embrace the suck and instead paid Bird/McHale/Parrish well past the point of them really being good NBA players. 

 

Not every team needs to obviously tank,  and obviously the Mavs are only doing with Dirk what the Lakers did with Kobe, but at least the next year the Lakers recognized they were bad and went with it.  I get the distinct feeling that Cuban will never allow such a thing and as such the Mavs could be bad for a bit.  Just too much pride. 

 

You can tank a season just by the personnel you have, not necessarily through coaching decisions and whatnot.  Look at the Bulls now.  But in that case, don't get Noel at all. 

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59 minutes ago, OxyBubbleMan said:

It's actually the best time to tank because this is the last season with better odds and a great rookie pool with lots of bigs. The new draft rules will apply starting on 2019 afaik.

 

Best case scenario is Noel just sucks it up and play Carlisle's way while we lose lol. This increases his potential trade value, develop a better relationship with the org, play better within the system, and we might just pay him the max if he is not traded as we miss out on the big name FAs... again.

 

Haha, the only other MFFL on the site weighs in.  It's funny, when I was writing my post, I was thinking, "hmm...I think the draft rules actually are instated in 2019".   You're probably right.  I'm on the opposite side of the spectrum from you though; Noel is NOT going to forgive the Mavs for (rightly) refusing to pay him the max.  And by not playing him/benching him (as we are now), we're screwing whatever relationship we have with Noel.  Therefore, at the end of the season, there's almost no chance Noel stays with us, regardless of whether he plays well or not, or whether he gets the max offer (from us or any other team) or not.

 

@Tom Chambers: Absolutely right.  I always lauded the Mavs' FO for being smart with their choices.  Yes, they made a LOT of mistakes (Rondo, DAJ) that simply were relatively unable to be predicted.  However, you're right in that Cuban, with the rest of the Mavs' decision-makers (well, just Cuban then) had an enormous ego.  They kept trying to win over that next big FA and striking out...Deron, then D12, then DAJ, and so on; it was a matter of trying to vindicate tearing apart the 2011 team and losing Tyson.  It was always an attempt to be the smartest man in the room and one-up other GMs like Morey (thanks for that, Parsons).  Obviously, it kept blowing up in their face and they always ended up making due with 1-year contracts with "good but not great" players and using Dirk's talent+Carlisle's genius to continuously go for a low playoff seed+Round 1 exit year after year.  I'd have thought this year they'd wise up with surprisingly no off-season moves and actually USING our draft pick to get a godsend (DSJ)...and yet we're still not letting him play.

 

The thing is that we're not the Lakers.  Yeah, we're doing the exact same thing the Lakers did with Kobe; we're mustering up a halfway decent team so Dirk can at least feel better about going out this way.  However, the Mavs suck at the draft (aside from this year).  Unlike the Lakers, we actually HAVE a capable and long-tenured coach (Carlisle) whom we can't fire outright.  Problem is that he hates rookies, hates losing, and doesn't want to develop young talent.  It's the very reason the Mavs have rarely used the draft and so often traded/bought what we needed.  Our entire culture is "win-now".  Unfortunately, the Mavs aren't in a situation where they can feasibly win and therefore are stuck.

 

Furthermore, unlike the Bulls, who have an excellent young nucleus of Dunn/Holiday/Lavine/Markannen, we've got mostly vets, on a guard-heavy roster, with a coach who loves his tried-and-true old guys and has a penchant for eccentric lineups.  Therefore, you somehow find Devin Harris, JJB, and Wes playing more than Yogi, Seth, and DSJ will.

 

Back to Noel, I was excited when we got him, especially considering we paid nearly nothing to get him and considering he was a near perfect fit (especially since we almost never get young, capable rim protectors/defensive Cs).  I just never thought he'd ask for the max so early without proving himself, and this whole thing snowballed pretty quickly into the dilemma we're quagmired in now.

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Noel has to realize that he is in a congratulations, you played yourself route and it's not a good look for him and the org. No one would pay him the max he wants if he doesn't prove himself capable of adjusting/adapting to one of the best coaches in the league even if Carlisle is being petty/stubborn. The last time this happened with Carlisle is with Rondo (a talented oft-injured player with an ego known for his defense albeit undeservingly for the past few years). It completely tanked Rondo's value after his stint with us. He has to cave in and accept that this is his opportunity to showcase himself for the max. The problem is he probably has the wrong people around him on his ear telling him he is worth the max even if he half-asses it this season. His agent got fired while getting him the best deal I think is possible for him this past offseason.

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3 hours ago, OxyBubbleMan said:

Noel has to realize that he is in a congratulations, you played yourself route and it's not a good look for him and the org. No one would pay him the max he wants if he doesn't prove himself capable of adjusting/adapting to one of the best coaches in the league even if Carlisle is being petty/stubborn. The last time this happened with Carlisle is with Rondo (a talented oft-injured player with an ego known for his defense albeit undeservingly for the past few years). It completely tanked Rondo's value after his stint with us. He has to cave in and accept that this is his opportunity to showcase himself for the max. The problem is he probably has the wrong people around him on his ear telling him he is worth the max even if he half-asses it this season. His agent got fired while getting him the best deal I think is possible for him this past offseason.

Ya I agree he has to showcase himself but how can he do that when he gets pulled 3 min into the 1st quarter after he makes his only shot and blocks a shot on D...like what message does that send him - you aren't prime Dirk so sit down. then coach is probably telling him to give 100% effort at all times on D and to overcompensate he racks up fouls at times.

 

I shouldn't have drafted him tbh..i told people last year that when he moved from philly to dallas, although it appeared good getting away from embiid and okafor, that it would hurt his value because dallas sucks with big men, but i didn't listen to myself this year and needed a big late and needed steals late so went for noel. looking like a mistake but like I said I will not drop him, taking him to the grave if i have to

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He probably knows what irks Rick. Dallas has no incentive not to play him aside from losing and both the FO and the coach hates losing. I believe that Carlisle legitimately wants what is best for Noel and to make him have better habits but his method isn't rubbing off of him. Noel should be able to hustle back on D at all times and that is honestly all what we ask for from him but there are times that he has been called out specifically for it. He isn't being a pro mentally and I would think it's hard to do so when you feel the org is being petty but he just has to be.

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9 hours ago, chud12 said:

Forgot where I read this and I don't know if its been said yet but I did read that Rick C. hates Noel's attitude and just won't put up with it hence the low pt. 

This has got to be it. I turned on the game and Dirk moves like a 70 year old man. Dont know how he starts still

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Watching this game on ESPN has actually changed my opinion about Noel.

Right now, he really isn't a very good fit for Dallas' guard dominant team due to limited range.
No one even looks in his direction on offense and he seems lost on defense.

I'm cutting bait and letting another GM deal with what I think will be a season-long headache.

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Noel actually moved well in this game. The problem is that the Mav's guards are too small to see over the defense so they move the ball around the perimeter until the PnR happens wherein they almost always opt to take the shot since none of them are that good of a playmaker. He also doesn't have the green light to take his mid-short range jumper he's been working on so all he relies on for points are drop passes, lobs, and put backs.

 

He was pretty good on D this game except for that one bounce pass from Rivers to DJ where he lost him.

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For those curious about what Noel did to get Meijri off the bench:

 

He took two open free throw line jumpers and did not rotate to contest a Lou Williams drive.

 

The second I saw Carisle motion to Salah, I just tuned into another game.

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2 hours ago, sharkpotato said:

 

Well that was quick :lol:

 

2 hours ago, Jonathanc5 said:

 

Lol right on the dot.... I'm holding maybe 1 more week... just don't make sense to play dirk or Powell ... just don't get it.....

 

I stuck by my word, 4 points, 4 rebounds and now he can spend 4 months on the bloody waiver 

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1 hour ago, JaydensGuys said:

Keep on mind my league is shallow 10 team 12 player roster 

 

There was too much quality to sit and wait

 

for example robin Lopez is still sitting there 

 

What is RoLo doing sitting there? How can you hold Noel when RoLo is available man? 

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how to recognize frustrated center:

-set screen,rolls off immediatelly trying to get open without proper contact to allow handler some space

-desperately chasing offensive rebounds,hoping to get easy putbacks

-gets lost in rotations on defense more then usual

-isnt involved so he ends up forcing it when he gets the ball

 

Nurkic looked same away in Denver last year when they were ignoring him in offense

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He's a drop in 10 teamers, but in 12 teamers especially two center lineups you have got to hold him.

I know, I'm sick of seeing the 4 point 4 board stats as well, I've dropped him in my 10 teamers but for 12 teamers there aren't better centers on the wire.

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3 hours ago, JaydensGuys said:


Because i was hoping for the 3 blocks + steals. rolo is great but he only provides blocks there and i mean i cant really fit him in my team 

 

Yes you can. There's a perfect Noel-sized hole on your bench now, or at least there should be. Perfect place to fit him.

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