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Nerlens Noel 2017-2018 Season Outlook


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"Damn, we have a sexual harassment scandal on our hands. Better give Nerlens Noel 20mpg!"

The number of pages in his thread will exceed his season minutes total by the trade deadline.

2 hours ago, Jake the snake said:

 

JV for Noel...straight up. Helps both teams. Even if Raptors don't resign Noel (which is the likely outcome) they have cleared JV's contract and they get better now and then have cleared a roster space for the promising Poeltl, Siakam, Bebe trio to get more mins and Ibaka to play more 5 where he is better.

 

Yup, pretty much what I said in the JV thread (or maybe Siakam one) too... both teams benefit from this trade, and it's a clear no-brainer. Dallas gets a talent upgrade, Raps get a rental of a low usage hustle and defensive player without sacrificing their young talent, but also getting them under luxury tax. Sounds too good to be true... but I can see Masai even squeezing more out of this trade too.

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4 hours ago, My Dinner With Andre said:

 

That was a strange response by Carlisle.

I think Carlisle said something after the game along the lines of...I usually send the ball boy to get me mine. But they seem to be past it based on this from practice. 

 http://uproxx.com/dimemag/nerlens-noel-rick-carlisle-dallas-mavericks-hot-dog-video/

 

2 hours ago, rob0403 said:

Wouldn't he be a good rental for a playoff team? Just an easy 4.2 million contract, a team can find someone to dump if they think Noel can be a good backup C. Also, Noel will be super motivated to perform in that team.

The cost for Nerlens was almost nothing for the Mavs. Bogut was worthless to them. Anderson is wing depth and hasn't flashed much of anything. The 1st was heavily protected and resulted in two 2nd round pick (which was expected). Pretty worthless considering you can buy those picks these days. That trade happened when Nerlens value as Embiid's handcuff was far greater than it is today. I'm not 100% sure how trade exceptions work, but I would think a team can get Nerlens for a second round pick at this point and use his salary in the trade exception and not send a player back. Any player that goes back to the Mavs on a salary match would be like a Hezonja type where they aren't getting resigned and are just a salary match. 

 

Unfortunately, Nerlens isn't the only 5 that can be had cheap these days. Jahlil for sure. Monroe if/when he is bought out. And teams that would view him as a backup 5/playoff boost (Raptors, Bucks, Celtics, Cavs, etc) are in a position of leverage to wait out the market since their teams are already playoff caliber without him. And then consider the higher end options that are good possibilities to be available and still not cost much. Favors. DJ. RoLo. BroLo. Then you factor in the Bird Rights issue. Add it all up and this Nerlens situation is about as clear as mud. The only team that might pursue him now would be the Heat that need to make the playoffs, but that only comes into play if Whiteside is hurt long term. 

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10 minutes ago, thezing1 said:

I think Carlisle said something after the game along the lines of...I usually send the ball boy to get me mine. But they seem to be past it based on this from practice. 

 http://uproxx.com/dimemag/nerlens-noel-rick-carlisle-dallas-mavericks-hot-dog-video/

 

The cost for Nerlens was almost nothing for the Mavs. Bogut was worthless to them. Anderson is wing depth and hasn't flashed much of anything. The 1st was heavily protected and resulted in two 2nd round pick (which was expected). Pretty worthless considering you can buy those picks these days. That trade happened when Nerlens value as Embiid's handcuff was far greater than it is today. I'm not 100% sure how trade exceptions work, but I would think a team can get Nerlens for a second round pick at this point and use his salary in the trade exception and not send a player back. Any player that goes back to the Mavs on a salary match would be like a Hezonja type where they aren't getting resigned and are just a salary match. 

 

Unfortunately, Nerlens isn't the only 5 that can be had cheap these days. Jahlil for sure. Monroe if/when he is bought out. And teams that would view him as a backup 5/playoff boost (Raptors, Bucks, Celtics, Cavs, etc) are in a position of leverage to wait out the market since their teams are already playoff caliber without him. And then consider the higher end options that are good possibilities to be available and still not cost much. Favors. DJ. RoLo. BroLo. Then you factor in the Bird Rights issue. Add it all up and this Nerlens situation is about as clear as mud. The only team that might pursue him now would be the Heat that need to make the playoffs, but that only comes into play if Whiteside is hurt long term. 

 

Correct me if I'm wrong but the Mavs are way under the cap next year...like WAY under. Salaries don't need to be matched.

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1 minute ago, Silverdome_Loyal said:

16, 11, An 3 blks — nobody on that wire can hold NN’s jock if he gets his minutes add he just got the INJ tag he’s a hold for sure...anyone who says different obviously doesn’t know hoops ... he just needs minutes ?

 

The problem is he doesn't get minutes. You can keep holding for the chance that he starts getting minutes eventually or gets traded, but as of now, he's not worth it.

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1 minute ago, Silverdome_Loyal said:

16, 11, An 3 blks — nobody on that wire can hold NN’s jock if he gets his minutes add he just got the INJ tag he’s a hold for sure...anyone who says different obviously doesn’t know hoops ... he just needs minutes ?

Agreed.

 

at least he wasnt have a breakout season otherwise this injury would have devastating consequences. 

 

for keeper leagues i am questioning whethher itd good to hold onto him though for next year. This and last year was quite tough to own NN.

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Agree with the insight - 0 minutes now - But here’s the issue .... when NN gets his 28 to 33 minutes a night the 99.9% of GMs are going to wish they added this kid - I’ve had him in my dynasty keeper since week one and finally Now I get to stash him and wait for his trade out of dallas (I’ve heard Atlanta and the Clippers are interested in acquiring his service) - that’d b ideal new homes for this kid to finally showcase his upside ?

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33 minutes ago, Silverdome_Loyal said:

Agree with the insight - 0 minutes now - But here’s the issue .... when NN gets his 28 to 33 minutes a night the 99.9% of GMs are going to wish they added this kid

 

What's the over/under on Noel receiving anything close to those minutes in Dallas?  He's nowhere near playing 15 let alone 30.  As for teams trading for him we can only hope but he's a free agent after this season.  There is almost zero incentive for a team to give up an asset for him, just like the Monroe situation.  Seeing as Dallas are probably going to be towards the bottom of the west rather than competing for a playoff spot come the new year the type of assets Dallas would ask for would be 1st round picks or a good young player.  I don't see any team willing to give that up for Noel in this situation. 

 

If Dallas had someone they wanted to ship out to relieve cap space then maybe they could work a Noel trade around that but their cap situation is actually looking really good so they can't even do that.

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1 hour ago, Silverdome_Loyal said:

16, 11, An 3 blks — nobody on that wire can hold NN’s jock if he gets his minutes add he just got the INJ tag he’s a hold for sure...anyone who says different obviously doesn’t know hoops ... he just needs minutes ?

Anyone who says different obviously doesn't know hoops lmao. Dude hasn't played more than 5 minutes for over a month. Coach and team have zero plan to play him at any point this season. He will not crack the top 300 as long as he is on the mavs

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1 hour ago, richg24 said:

Anyone who says different obviously doesn't know hoops lmao. Dude hasn't played more than 5 minutes for over a month. Coach and team have zero plan to play him at any point this season. He will not crack the top 300 as long as he is on the mavs

Let me clarify my stance - obviously if he doesn’t get minutes he useless and everyone is in agreement with that premise... Im simply saying when (not if) he gets 25+ a night a lot of people are going to miss out .... Simply put it - NN is an ultra talented kid, who’s a 5 cat producer when given the opportunity!! Just look at his first game in Dallas 16, 11 with 3 Blocks and with solid %’s ?

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Noel can approve a trade. maybe after this DL stint Mavs can trade him to a team who can give him max or close to max money next year. Noel for dedmon would seem to work for the Hawks. Joking about Noel's DNPCD is more a negative reflection of the Dallas organization than Noel. Noel has complete control over his future.  Maybe he stays in Dallas all year and keeps then from getting squat back. I do think no matter what he signs early next year. 

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19 minutes ago, ythao455 said:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.mavsmoneyball.com/platform/amp/2017/12/7/16744344/i-will-never-be-convinced-dallas-mavericks-nerlens-noels-injury-is-real

 

Nerlen was shooting jumpers @Boston pregame prior to the injury announcement. Something to read about.

 

As much as this theory is intriguing, a NBA team fabricating a story of a fake injury (and a fake surgery, no less) seems a little bit too much to believe..

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