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Paul Millsap 2017-2018 Season Outlook


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What do you think about his upcoming season? A comeback year? Will you be targeting him on the draft day? If so, which round/where(snake),how much(auction). He was a bit of a disappointment but could the reason be that Hawks played with Howard instead of Horford. Now Millsap is going to play with Jokić who is more similar to Horford and as you remember Millsap was a top 15-20 player for many years, could he go back to that level or do you think these years are behind him?

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The other teams in my money league.

Lol this is where we are at    Asking for a timetable for the timetable 

This guy here...    We of the Asian delegation trade this guy away. 

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He played below his ADP and he's 32, but:

 

  • the guy has been an All-Star for 4 straight seasons
  • In the past two seasons he's achieved or matched career highs in:
  • * points
  • * rebounds
  • * blocks
  • * steals
  • * assists
  • * starts
  • * AND his second highest mpg 
  • * He also had 1st-round value (10th overall) in BBM the season before last, and was T15 the season before that.

 

 

 

It's clear that when looking at his most recent years this past season where he disappointed his ADP was the outlier.

 

I admit the guy is 32-years old, and I'm not saying he should be the easy 2nd-round pick that he used to be.

But I wouldn't be surprised if he could bounce back to 2nd-round value. He's declining but it looks like he still has a lot left in the tank based off of these past two seasons stat lines.
 

Playing with Schroeder/Dwight Howard instead of the top-tier ball-moving offense with that Teague and Horford had an effect on his production imo. Perhaps playing with one of the best (if not the very best) passing bigs in the game with Jokic should make things easier on him. Jokic is kinda like D12 and Horford combined, I think he won't be as bad as last season but also probably not as good as he was with Horford (perennial T15).

tl;dr I wouldn't let him drop past the 4th, and I wouldn't be surprised if he exceeds his ADP by a lot with late 2nd round value. What pick I'd draft him depends on my strategy and what bigs are off the board, but I'd pick him ahead of the punt FT tier and ahead of Vucevic/Dieng/Aldridge (unless I need Vuc's rebounds badly). 

Edited by s-kayos
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Keep seeing him drafted at his floor in the 4th round, so he's a very strong upside candidate. He's been great at avoiding injuries and I agree Jokic should help get him easy looks. I'm not desperate for him as there is some risk with his age, but I'd imagine he'll end up on a few of my teams. 

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Millsap was at his best when we was playing with a guy like Al Horford and not Howard. Al is a versatile center who doesn't need to hog the paint similar to Jokic.  I think top 30 this year is a good valuation factoring both his age and situation.

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On 8/29/2017 at 9:51 AM, rob0403 said:

Millsap was at his best when we was playing with a guy like Al Horford and not Howard. Al is a versatile center who doesn't need to hog the paint similar to Jokic.  I think top 30 this year is a good valuation factoring both his age and situation.

Millsaps played 32-34 minutes in Atlanta. I think he is 50/50 on cracking 30 minutes per game with Malone and the depth they have. Jokic was at 30 mpg post ASB. Wilson, Gallo and Harris were in the 32-34 range and led the team as wings. Malone just rotates his bigs. I think the Nuggets depth and Malone's willingness to not extend his starters heavy minutes is going to cap Millsaps more than age and being on a more talented team. 

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15 minutes ago, thezing1 said:

Millsaps played 32-34 minutes in Atlanta. I think he is 50/50 on cracking 30 minutes per game with Malone and the depth they have. Jokic was at 30 mpg post ASB. Wilson, Gallo and Harris were in the 32-34 range and led the team as wings. Malone just rotates his bigs. I think the Nuggets depth and Malone's willingness to not extend his starters heavy minutes is going to cap Millsaps more than age and being on a more talented team. 

 

I don't see the problem - Gallo is gone (allowing Chandler to see the majority of SF minutes) and Jokic will play the 5. Millsap is their dude at the 4.  Faried is a backup now.

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17 hours ago, jay14bay said:

 

I don't see the problem - Gallo is gone (allowing Chandler to see the majority of SF minutes) and Jokic will play the 5. Millsap is their dude at the 4.  Faried is a backup now.

The roster is deep and Malone uses his depth. Hernangomez. Plumlee. Lyles. Faried. That is a pretty talented group that is going to get minutes. Even Darrell Arthur can weasel out 15 minutes in a handful of games he balls out in. It doesn't really matter if we say Faried sucks or Lyles is no where near as good as Millsaps. All of that is true. But Malone doesn't rest-DNP guys much, but he does use his depth and limits minutes.

 

Gallo is gone, but Barton is still there. Harris has carved out the role of primary wing. Murray, Nelson, Mudiay. There is so much depth and flexibility with the roster. Depth is the one thing that really concerned me with this team. I thought they were the perfect team to offload depth to get someone like Love or a borderline star and just lock in their starters to more minutes. But, I think Malone likes having depth at altitude and just running guys max effort in shorter stints. It is a pretty smart move by him. Few teams have the depth to withstand maxed out effort at altitude for 48 minutes. 

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Millsap's D will keep him on the floor more than 30 mins definitely. He is valuable for them defensively as well. Gallo had no problem to play 34 mins the previous season. i don't see the concern for Millsap.

Edited by RipCity0
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On 8/28/2017 at 5:30 PM, hipriest69 said:

Every single mock i've done so far has him falling to the turn into the 4th round, which is insane.  I've been mocking from the 12th spot, so I seem to always get him and Griffin as my 3rd/4th round picks.  

 

 

 

Yup. I've got him at 35 and 39. Steal. I think he picks it up just a little this year with a better big-man partner.

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Millsap will continue to produce.

Nothing flashy, but will be one of the most consistent guys out there.

 

You will look up and think what did Paul do this game because you don't remember anything spectacular, but he will end up with a 18/10/3/2/1 line and be like...oh he did do something. 

 

I truly expect some good numbers from paul this year.

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I drafted him in the 2nd round last year and was pretty disappointed (horrible FG% for what he should do), but I took another shot on him this year in Round 4 (Pick 38).  The change of scenery should be able to bring him back to the higher level I expected from him last year, minus a big jump in blocks like he had two seasons ago.  Even if he only blocks around 1 per game, he's still obviously highly valuable.

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