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Survivor Football 2017 Week 1


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Is anyone in survivor pools where you pick a winner and a loser each week? Just wondering what type of strategy people implement here.

 

For instance, if you pick NE to win, do you automatically pick KC to lose, and risk getting knocked out in both sides, or do you pick separate games?

 

Week 1 I usually don't like to mess around so I can get a feel for teams, but I'm leaning pretty hard on picking either the Rams or Bills.

 

Rams to win, and Browns to lose is the pick I'm currently favoring. Thoughts?

 

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30 minutes ago, DeathOnWings1005 said:

Is anyone in survivor pools where you pick a winner and a loser each week? Just wondering what type of strategy people implement here.

 

For instance, if you pick NE to win, do you automatically pick KC to lose, and risk getting knocked out in both sides, or do you pick separate games?

 

Week 1 I usually don't like to mess around so I can get a feel for teams, but I'm leaning pretty hard on picking either the Rams or Bills.

 

Rams to win, and Browns to lose is the pick I'm currently favoring. Thoughts?

 

I mean, it would make sense to just go for it in the same game. If you really think your team will win, then that means you're equally confident in the other team losing. I'd personally not touch that game this early in the year, but if I was then I'd use that strategy.

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12 hours ago, CharlesCC2 said:

I'm also of the mind that you avoid divisional games and road teams.  Every once in awhile when it feels like the matchup is really lopsided I'll go against it, and I feel like we could have that this week with Pitt @ Cleveland.  I know there's the Big Ben road/home splits, but I think Pitt is gonna run it up against them.

 

If you have a buyback that stops early perhaps you chance a team that you will likely never use again like the Rams.  I think the Rams are going to look completely different with McVay's offense and that Goff will take a step up, and this is a great matchup for him to get started.

Also remember the Colts are missing their star Center. It's too bad they won't have Donald playing this week, although I still think this is almost a shoe-in. 

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2 hours ago, Br0kenB said:

I mean, it would make sense to just go for it in the same game. If you really think your team will win, then that means you're equally confident in the other team losing. I'd personally not touch that game this early in the year, but if I was then I'd use that strategy.

Yeah I mean, in what other scenario do the Rams win? They have one of the toughest schedules. @JAX is no shoe in and at home vs HOU maybe. Possibly their last game at home vs SF. Really no better week to use them then against the Colts without Luck, Kelly, and Davis. Just my thoughts.

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I've got 4 entries in a pool and am rolling w/ BUF/PIT/ATL/LAR.  They seem to be the most obvious.  Feel pretty confident PIT/ATL win and rolling w/ BUF/LAR which seem more like 60/40 & the remaining props look more like true coinflips this week.

 

Edited by ragrag
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1 hour ago, ragrag said:

I've got 4 entries in a pool and am rolling w/ BUF/PIT/ATL/LAR.  They seem to be the most obvious.  Feel pretty confident PIT/ATL win and rolling w/ BUF/LAR which seem more like 60/40 & the remaining props look more like true coinflips this week.

 

4 entries and not a single one on the Pats?  Ballsy.  I don't like the Rams pick at all, even without Andrew Luck.  Can you honestly say that Jared Goff is that much better than Scott Tolzien?

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7 hours ago, CooL said:

4 entries and not a single one on the Pats?  Ballsy.  I don't like the Rams pick at all, even without Andrew Luck.  Can you honestly say that Jared Goff is that much better than Scott Tolzien?

Welp.  Well I guess it wasn't ballsy after all.

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7 hours ago, azeri98 said:

I would take Houston this week, the crowd will be insane like New Orleans  after Katrina, and their defense will be really good this year playing a Not very good Jags offense


I keep seeing people say this and yeah they'll be motivated, but totally different situations. New Orleans had their city's infrastructure and stadium ravaged and lost their team for an entire year. They played 3 home games in Texas and 1 in New York. Tiger Stadium held the other 4. I don't think this will come close to the emotion of that night. 

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22 minutes ago, Jason497 said:


I keep seeing people say this and yeah they'll be motivated, but totally different situations. New Orleans had their city's infrastructure and stadium ravaged and lost their team for an entire year. They played 3 home games in Texas and 1 in New York. Tiger Stadium held the other 4. I don't think this will come close to the emotion of that night. 

 

Still a similar situation. Let's not try to literally compare both of these horrid tragedies. Houston is a good pick. 

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On 9/6/2017 at 1:29 PM, mrschrod said:

So I have two rules that I try to follow as much as possible (occasionally I try to break those). The first is never pick against divisional opponents. The second, never pick a team on the road. Based on that, I'm left with these options:

 

Kansas City v New England

Arizona v Detroit

Oakland v Tennessee

Indianapolis vs LA Rams

Seattle vs Green Bay

Carolina vs San Francisco

Atlanta vs Chicago

New Orleans vs Minnesota

 

I immediately eliminate New Orleans/Minnesota, Seattle/Green Bay, Arizona/Detroit, Oakland/Tennessee, Indy/LA Rams because those are too tough to call. That leaves Atlanta over Chicago (picking against the home team, and picking a team that is off potentially a Super Bowl hangover), Carolina over San Francisco (West coast trip and inconsistent last year), and New England vs Kansas City. Out of those options, I think I have to pick NE on Thursday. They rarely lose at home, and in the first game of the season, are going to be prepared for whatever KC throws at them. That, and I'm expecting a 2-3 decline in wins for KC this year as well. 

 

Glad I never listened to your analysis...lol

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Let's be honest, New England was as good a pick as any this week. The only reason I didn't choose them was that they seemed to provide too much future value to be blown with the first pick. Of course that won't stop the chicken little captain hindsight 20/20s, like the guy above me, from pretending they knew all along that NE was a bad pick. Where was your post before the game saying NE was a bad pick @crocp ?

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1 hour ago, atrium said:

Let's be honest, New England was as good a pick as any this week. The only reason I didn't choose them was that they seemed to provide too much future value to be blown with the first pick. Of course that won't stop the chicken little captain hindsight 20/20s, like the guy above me, from pretending they knew all along that NE was a bad pick. Where was your post before the game saying NE was a bad pick @crocp ?

 

Based on FV alone its a bad pick....that does not even need to be said.

 

Mixed with the fact anything can happen in week 1, and KC is no slouch, I do not see any scenario in why someone would pick NE week 1.

 

Much better picks out there...mainly the Pitt or ALT game.

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53 minutes ago, typh00n2k said:

Rams seem to be the safest pick on the board.

I don't know about the safest. They seem like one of the riskiest picks that are actually on the board. I'm leaning towards them though cause I can't see myself ever using them again this season

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3 hours ago, crocp said:

 

Glad I never listened to your analysis...lol

 

Ha yes because a team that went something like 56-1 against AFC teams at home was of course going to lose.

 

Upsets can happen to any team. And I'm sure its always easy to comment after the fact

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10 hours ago, CooL said:

Welp.  Well I guess it wasn't ballsy after all.

 

Going w/ NE seemed like a good call at the time.  They almost always win their home opener and who could have predicted NE would implode like that.  Losing Hightower was huge.

 

TBH, I didn't go NE b/c I wanted to save them for later in the season.  I'm not 100% sold on LAR vs IND either and might just double-up one of my 4 entries on PIT.

Edited by ragrag
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On 9/5/2017 at 4:35 PM, nzoner said:

 I wouldn't touch that game as Andy Reid has won 70% of his opening road games as a head coach and yes I know all the stats etc. for Belicheck as well,just saying I think that game has the potential to have more than a few people sweating bullets late in the 4th quarter.

Cowbell

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hindsight is 20/20 but the Pats were still a good pick.  Considering the make up of that offense and how good they are at home, it seemed pretty "safe" considering all the other options.

 

But this is why the games are played on the field and not on paper.  Chiefs have historically given them issues.  Good for the Chiefs to play them as the opener but these are the type of losses that make the Patriots better (2014 loss to KC in KC for example)

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