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Isaiah Thomas 2017-2018 Season Outlook


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1 hour ago, patentboy23 said:

At what point do you gamble w/IR, 6th round, $20 auction bid, etc.?

 

I think even 6th round or 20$ auction is a reach for IT because you can get a healthy good player in return for that pick/$.

 

 

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The real problem here is that Isaiah will still be the same size in LA.

Probably a smart move on the cavs part. Don't want him over-exerting himself in a revenge game this early in his return to the court.

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2 hours ago, patentboy23 said:

At what point do you gamble w/IR, 6th round, $20 auction bid, etc.?

If I had an IR spot I would gamble around the same place I would generally draft sleepers.  Typically, I like to draft 10 solid guys (two for each position), then just roll the dice the last 3 picks.  Most people shoot for upside earlier.  6th round is too early for me because I think there are really solid guys such as Ariza/Covington available there. 

 

However, it also depends on team build.  If I'm punting FT% or points I'm just not drafting IT this year.  If I really need a FT% anchor because I drafted someone like Gobert and don't want to punt because I've been sniped on the punt FT% bigs, I will take IT2 around the same spot as Gallo/LouWill.  All three of them have upside/risk associated with them. 

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On 9/26/2017 at 9:45 AM, ber said:

 

I think even 6th round or 20$ auction is a reach for IT because you can get a healthy good player in return for that pick/$.

 

 

meh, if league has IR it is worth it IMO, because if IT comes back at full strength then you have a player worth 40-45, and in the meanwhile you can use the spot for a sleeper with upside. In my league where I just drafted IT and slipped him in IR i'm now trying to get pick up Josh Richardson, which I say is a decent replacement for the moment.

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4 hours ago, Roto4500 said:

I don't have the slightest idea what to value him at with this news. If you have an IR slot, is he worth $5 in auction? $20? Such a tough player to value.

He is still worth more than $5 but $20 is too much. I'd say $10-$15 is about right, considering he could flirt with 1st round value when he returns and if you think you can get in your fantasy playoffs while spending $15 on him that's not overreaching. On the other hand $10 is just a great value for him and I wouldn't pass on that.

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I drafted her him 76.  Then made sure to add a couple of guards to fill the void in his roster spot.  There are not many 8th rounders that can produce 2nd round value when healthy.  This was where I thought the reward outweighed the risk.  I drafted believing January was the return date.  Now seeing maybe late December.  I am optimistic he can return and provide a boost for the second half.

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10 hours ago, IsraeliPSYCHO said:

got him at 81 overall .. can't lose fallin that deep 

That's 11 spots later than me. I saw what was available at the PG  position at 70 and it was Dennis Smith, Lin, Fultz as best PGs available and I'd rather sit Thomas on my IR and try and grab a PG that emerges through an injury than pick draft a rookie or an injury prone PG.

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My concern isn't really when IT comes back. Mid December/January....it doesn't really matter that much. He will take time to ramp up activity so he won't be full strength for 10 or so games after he returns. But what is he when he comes back? That team is so deep. If they are healthy Wade, Rose, Smith are going to be in the rotation. They can adjust to be big or small and stretch that rotation to include Korver, Shumpert, Crowder to get some weird combination of shooters, defenders, and ball handlers on the floor. 

I don't see IT's usage being anywhere close to what it was in Boston. I don't think it is as simple as plugging in Kyrie's usage from last year and applying it to IT because the roster has changed so much. He could also rest a few games down the stretch since they will be in playoff mode and want to be as healthy as possible. I think the addition of Wade really caps IT's upside on this roster. He is a great stash if you can put him somewhere, but I wouldn't consider him until after pick 100 and probably closer to 110-125. 

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2 hours ago, fabrar said:

Traded him for Gary Harris. Would rather take the high upside and health as opposed to a huge question mark later in the season 

Interesting - had someone offer me Thomas for my Harris , and passed

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9 hours ago, thezing1 said:

My concern isn't really when IT comes back. Mid December/January....it doesn't really matter that much. He will take time to ramp up activity so he won't be full strength for 10 or so games after he returns. But what is he when he comes back? That team is so deep. If they are healthy Wade, Rose, Smith are going to be in the rotation. They can adjust to be big or small and stretch that rotation to include Korver, Shumpert, Crowder to get some weird combination of shooters, defenders, and ball handlers on the floor. 

I don't see IT's usage being anywhere close to what it was in Boston. I don't think it is as simple as plugging in Kyrie's usage from last year and applying it to IT because the roster has changed so much. He could also rest a few games down the stretch since they will be in playoff mode and want to be as healthy as possible. I think the addition of Wade really caps IT's upside on this roster. He is a great stash if you can put him somewhere, but I wouldn't consider him until after pick 100 and probably closer to 110-125. 

 

 

he will average 20+ points regardless .. they clearly coulda used him today 

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11 hours ago, IsraeliPSYCHO said:

 

 

he will average 20+ points regardless .. they clearly coulda used him today 

Come on man, that team has how many new pieces and how many game minutes have they played with Lebron and Love? Judge them in a month or two....or judge them the last month of the season. The only thing they will care about is having things sorted and functioning highly come playoff time.  

 

IT is going to score 20. No doubt. But his value is going to need to be driven by his assists. 

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48 minutes ago, thezing1 said:

Come on man, that team has how many new pieces and how many game minutes have they played with Lebron and Love? Judge them in a month or two....or judge them the last month of the season. The only thing they will care about is having things sorted and functioning highly come playoff time.  

 

IT is going to score 20. No doubt. But his value is going to need to be driven by his assists. 

 

 

doesnt matter, old a** wade and rose simply ain't gone get it done bro

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4 minutes ago, IsraeliPSYCHO said:

 

 

doesnt matter, old a** wade and rose simply ain't gone get it done bro

Dude, I'm not saying he isn't going to start or have a nice role. I am saying that team is ultra deep and only cares about the playoffs. His role will not be anywhere close to what it was with the Celtics. 

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Just now, thezing1 said:

Dude, I'm not saying he isn't going to start or have a nice role. I am saying that team is ultra deep and only cares about the playoffs. His role will not be anywhere close to what it was with the Celtics. 

 

 

it wont but his usage rate should rival kyries from last season 

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Just now, IsraeliPSYCHO said:

 

 

it wont but his usage rate should rival kyries from last season 

Why, because he is the starting PG? So it is that easy to just give him Kyrie's usage without considering the rest of the roster changes?

Wade is not very good, but Wade absorbs far more usage than Smith. And if Wade is hurt, or resting, Smith takes his role back and it is a constant from last year.

Rose isn't dominant but he is much more competent and deserving of a role than DWill who is out of the league right now. He will be used more heavily as a backup PG.

Crowder is technically replacing Tristan and he is far more deserving and capable of a higher usage rate. 

Love is a constant. 

 

Lebron is going to be the key. If Lebron trusts his teammates creating abilities and they play an offense that has more ball movement then sure, maybe IT gets a bit more. Lebron has pushed for more playmakers for years and he finally has it. Of course IT is the next best option. No doubt. But if they evolve their offensive system, which they need to in order to beat GS since Lebron and Kyrie pounding the ball into the ground didn't work, then the usage is going to be spread around. 

 

You can counter and have last word. I really don't need to go back and forth any longer on this topic because time will tell. I suppose I am highlighting all of the risk associated with the roster in addition to the injury risk IT presents. I sincerely hope IT returns sooner than later so you get a better return on your investment. 

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