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Survivor Football 2017 Season Thread


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Arizona should absolutely beat San Fran at home but who really trusts Palmer?

 

Also, why is Seattle considered one of the better teams? They've looked pretty chitty out here if you ask me........and  I feel no more confident using Seatlle than I do Arizona. With that said, I think the Seattle home field advantage is the deciding factor here. 

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In my opinion, in a pool where you must select 22 different teams to make it through a whole season, it's almost a must that you seize upon the opportunity to use lesser teams because you will have to use quite a few of them at some point. To me that doesn't mean taking on unnecessary risk and getting crazy (starting CAR or LAR last week was the definition of getting too cute imo), but taking calculated risks when they present themselves and always balancing current value, future value, and how many people are picking each team. It's a nice feeling to have a stud team as your safety valve on a rough week because you didn't blow it early. For example, if I were to take the flat out most confident pick each week, I would've taken Pittsburgh week 1 over Buffalo. However, I felt safe enough with Buffalo in conjunction with the fact that they had almost no future value, to take Buffalo. To me, it's a balancing act of the two.

 

And lo and behold, Pittsburgh could come in handy week 5. They look like quite possibly the only good play that week. Glad I didn't burn through them.

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45 minutes ago, atrium said:

 However, I felt safe enough with Buffalo in conjunction with the fact that they had almost no future value, to take Buffalo. To me, it's a balancing act of the two.

 

And lo and behold, Pittsburgh could come in handy week 5. They look like quite possibly the only good play that week. Glad I didn't burn through them.

 

Buffalo will come in handy week 9 at the Jets. 

 

In one of my entries, I used the Steelers week 1.  But for week 5, I'm ok with either Tennessee at Miami or Kansas City at Houston.

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There's always two philosophies regarding Survivor pools - 1. Pick the favorites and just survive another week. 2. Strategically make choices to maximize your chance of winning the whole thing. 

 

You don't win any money for going out in week 11. You might feel better that you survived 11 weeks instead of going out in week 3. But in the end, the result is the same. If you always pick the heavy favorite, which often times means using a good team, then you'll be left with tough decisions in later weeks such as choosing between Cleveland, Indy, SF, or the Giants. Many will not agree, but I say you need to take calculated risks when appropriate.  Pick a less popular option and then hope for an upset. Last week, New England and Green Bay both needed last minute miracles to pull off a win. Imagine if they had both lost, that would have decimated your field. 

 

Arizona is 72% favored to win, they play at home, and there seems to be very little opportunity to use them again. 

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1 hour ago, wekko368 said:

 

Buffalo will come in handy week 9 at the Jets. 

 

In one of my entries, I used the Steelers week 1.  But for week 5, I'm ok with either Tennessee at Miami or Kansas City at Houston.

 

I don't like using away teams unless I absolutely have to personally, but week 5 is tough sledding so you might have to if Pitt isn't available.

 

6 minutes ago, crocp said:

SHAWKS!!!

 

If you dont use them this week, your next chance is week 9 vs. Wash. I dont trust them anyways vs Wash, so I will be using them this week with the 13+ spread!

 

Yeah the rest of their schedule is tougher than I thought... I may end up going with the Seahawks this week after all 

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4 minutes ago, AroundTheHorn said:

Seahawks play the rams next week so thats another positive use for them .The only way you are using Arizona again is vs the Rams or@the 49ers. 

I wouldn't touch them against the Rams. How many games has Seattle lost to LAR in the last couple years? I'd maybe use them @SF in week 12

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4 minutes ago, AroundTheHorn said:

Seahawks play the rams next week so thats another positive use for them .The only way you are using Arizona again is vs the Rams or@the 49ers. 

 

Hawks vs the Rams on the road with only a 2 point spread?....nooooooo thank you :)

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On 9/28/2017 at 1:16 PM, AroundTheHorn said:

Seahawks play the rams next week so thats another positive use for them .The only way you are using Arizona again is vs the Rams or@the 49ers. 

 

The Rams beat the Seahawks at home in 2014, 2015, 2016 and last year 2017. 

Now granted they have moved to LA and they have a new coaching staff but the players themselves are familiar with each other. The Rams are actually a better team than they have been over that stretch of time and quite honestly the Rams are playing better football right now than the Seahawks. 

 

That is a very risky play. I'd rather use the Seahawks this week. If the Seahawks lose this week as a 13 point favorite are you really going to blindly pick them against the Rams on the road next week?

 

 

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1 hour ago, njfoses said:

Toss up between Seattle and Atlanta. Leaning towards Atlanta.

 

Seattle is the bigger favorite and has a tougher schedule the rest of the way. Easy choice between the two for me.

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The Raiders look awful and now Carr is hurt. That was the benefit of using them up when they were healthy in a great matchup and at home. Now I wouldn't even want to touch them in any matchup right now

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I think if you don't have good choices a team to consider picking against is the Browns. I know they will probably win a game here and there but they are probably the worst team with the Jets. The odds are in your favor if you pick a decent or above average team against the Browns.

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11 minutes ago, Cavs said:

I think if you don't have good choices a team to consider picking against is the Browns. I know they will probably win a game here and there but they are probably the worst team with the Jets. The odds are in your favor if you pick a decent or above average team against the Browns.

 

And Week 5 has the doomsday scenario where the Jets and the Browns are playing each other. It doesn't really matter for me if Seattle blows this game I'll be out and as I was typing this they just dropped a pass into the arms of a Colts DB. However, if I somehow survive my 13 point favorite winning this game Week 5 is ridiculously tough especially if all you have is 1 pick left. 

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Great, another night of survival football I'm gonna be sweating...

 

7 minutes ago, Cdub2k said:

 

And Week 5 has the doomsday scenario where the Jets and the Browns are playing each other. It doesn't really matter for me if Seattle blows this game I'll be out and as I was typing this they just dropped a pass into the arms of a Colts DB. However, if I somehow survive my 13 point favorite winning this game Week 5 is ridiculously tough especially if all you have is 1 pick left. 

Pittsburgh?

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33 minutes ago, atrium said:

Great, another night of survival football I'm gonna be sweating...

 

Pittsburgh?

not available for me but yeah they seem like they will the the #1 pick at home especially with the Jags coming off a serious butt whoppin to the Texans. 

Let's just say that you don't have the Steelers available. Who would you pick?

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2 minutes ago, Cdub2k said:

not available for me but yeah they seem like they will the the #1 pick at home especially with the Jags coming off a serious butt whoppin to the Texans. 

Let's just say that you don't have the Steelers available. Who would you pick?

 

Yeah it gets ugly really quickly once you take Pitt off the board. Maybe Philly? They've looked capable so far, and Arizona almost just lost to the Niners

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On 9/28/2017 at 12:17 AM, CooL said:

 

If your pool is like most, about half your pool should be gone. In large pools, need to start thinking about saving the good future value teams. I agree that there is no better time to use Arizona than this week home against SF. Can't just keep going with the obvious favorite each week, otherwise you're going to burn through Green Bay, New England, Atlanta, Seattle, Pittsburgh, etc. and then left playing somebody like Buffalo or Carolina when it counts for all the marbles.

 

 

See that was too cute and your lucky they pulled it off.

 

I think for the most part you should be looking for that obvious favorite every week, and only risk it on a lesser team if they are at home against a total toilet bowl squad like the browns.

 

Things change down the line. Teams deal with injures and players don't produce and what seems like a bad matchup today could be a cupcake down the road. Case in point might be the phins. 

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