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Survivor Football 2017 Season Thread


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14 minutes ago, Nyblazer11235 said:

 

Why not. Everyone is so worried about who they will be left to pick from week 12, worry about it then. Chances are everyone left by then won't have optimal choices every week

 

Completely agree. Say you "save" the Falcons or Chiefs or Packers for later in the season. Well, you didn't plan on Rodgers or Matt Ryan getting hurt did you? Making those teams almost unusable.

 

Take the wins when you can get them.

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Got my eye on the Eagles right now.  Love this spot for them as it's a home game vs a non-divisional foe who has major concerns on the offensive line and zero running game.  Eagles have a sorry secondary but this game should really play into their strength (front 7). 

 

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54 minutes ago, Nyblazer11235 said:

 

Why not. Everyone is so worried about who they will be left to pick from week 12, worry about it then. Chances are everyone left by then won't have optimal choices every week

So basically you just do whatever everyone else does.  The favorite wins, everybody moves on.  The favorite is upset, you go out out with 50% of the field.  Week 9 comes around and you're left choosing between the Browns, Bears, and Colts.

 

I guess it's just different philosophies.  I'd be fine doing that if I had perhaps multiple entries in the same pool.  Make one the chalk pick each week.  And then use the other entry to actually put some thinking into who to pick and strategize for the entire season.  My pool doesn't pay me to advance each week, it only pays if I'm the last one standing.

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7 hours ago, Nyblazer11235 said:

Like I said I don't pick the safest pick of the week. There are optimal times like going up against the really bad teams like the colts or browns when I pick a lesser team, like Seattle this week and the rams week 1.

 

Just felt like the niners didn't fit into that category of team here. They played both the rams and hawks down to the wire and could easily be 3-1 right now. 

 

Uhhh it sounds like you already do what we do. The Rams week 1? Far from a safe, lock pick. Sounds like you just disagree with the Arizona pick in particular.

 

Anyways can we move on from the strategy discussion, and especially the "I told you so" because we disagree with someone else's strategy? I think at this point we're all fully locked into our respective views on survivor football and not changing them

Edited by atrium
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The two picks this week are definitely either Pittsburgh or Philadelphia. Hard to see any other team being picked in these tough matchups. Jacksonville just got upset on the road after a london game, so its hard to see if they were really at full strength. Pittsburgh's team is still quite good at home though. The Eagles on the other hand are facing a fairly weak West Coast team with an old QB and their star RB hurt. I'm going with the Eagles.

 

Edited by Baloo
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11 minutes ago, atrium said:

What's your guys's pick set look like through 4 weeks? I've gone Buffalo - Oakland - Green Bay - Seattle

 

 

Probably going Pitt this week

LAR, Oakland, NE, Seattle here. Probably going Pitt as well this week. 

 

I see it like this—it’s impossible to predict what will happen in the future when we are relying on the situation today. Some of the teams that look good now might not look the same 5 or 7 weeks from now. I’ll take a bird in the hand over two in the bush any day, especially when the chalk is by far and away the safest option. We also know that the further into the season we go, the better data we have on teams, and the more informed we can be about teams like the Chiefs that look like more of a favorite in their matchups than they would have 4 weeks ago. 

 

But it’s a measured approach. I took Seattle for instance because while they are a good team I didn’t see a single game the rest of their season where I could see them being my best option besides that week. I see Pitt the same way this week. I’ll take them now instead of waiting until possibly some combo of Ben, AB, or Bell go out and they look like a different team. Patriots also looking like the kind of team I was more confident in before than I am now. Things change quickly in the NFL. 

Edited by AnchorDown
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I've already used Pitt and I don't trust Philly vs Arizona. 

 

I wanted to pick the Titans but MM's injury is probably gonna take him out of the game. My fall back plan is Cincy vs Buff. Cincy is a different offensive team under their new coordinator. 

 

Ill probably be be the only one on that bandwagon but I don't care. I'd rather go out on my own terms than pick the Eagles and lose when I have my doubts. In other words I'd rather be wrong about the Eagles and get eliminated by picking a different team than being right about the Eagles but getting eliminated because I picked them. 

 

Does that make any sense?

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5 minutes ago, Cdub2k said:

I've already used Pitt and I don't trust Philly vs Arizona. 

 

I wanted to pick the Titans but MM's injury is probably gonna take him out of the game. My fall back plan is Cincy vs Buff. Cincy is a different offensive team under their new coordinator. 

 

Ill probably be be the only one on that bandwagon but I don't care. I'd rather go out on my own terms than pick the Eagles and lose when I have my doubts. In other words I'd rather be wrong about the Eagles and get eliminated by picking a different team than being right about the Eagles but getting eliminated because I picked them. 

 

Does that make any sense?

 

Yes. Pick the teams you believe in.

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11 minutes ago, Cdub2k said:

I've already used Pitt and I don't trust Philly vs Arizona. 

 

I wanted to pick the Titans but MM's injury is probably gonna take him out of the game. My fall back plan is Cincy vs Buff. Cincy is a different offensive team under their new coordinator. 

 

Ill probably be be the only one on that bandwagon but I don't care. I'd rather go out on my own terms than pick the Eagles and lose when I have my doubts. In other words I'd rather be wrong about the Eagles and get eliminated by picking a different team than being right about the Eagles but getting eliminated because I picked them. 

 

Does that make any sense?

 

You mean you trust Cincy to beat an underrated Bills team that just beat the Falcons in Atlanta while Cincy is riding high after dismantling a bad Browns' team? Seems like the perfect spot for a letdown game.  I do agree that we probably don't know the true identity of this Bengals team and they are probably better than their record suggests but the Bills are certainly a much, much better team than the Cardinals.  We know what the Cardinals are at this point (zero run game and probably the worst O-Line in the NFL).

 

IMO, just too many variables to trust Cincy.

 

Now, Palmer and the Cardinals going east to play a 1pm game vs a solid Eagles' front 7 sounds pretty good to me if you don't have Pitt in your pocket.

Edited by ludawg23
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I already love Philly this week but if they get Fletcher Cox back too then RIP Carson Palmer. He was under constant duress sunday, took a beating from the 49ers front 7, the Eagles can play that game too with the big difference being they actually have an offense.

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4 hours ago, ludawg23 said:

 

You mean you trust Cincy to beat an underrated Bills team that just beat the Falcons in Atlanta while Cincy is riding high after dismantling a bad Browns' team? Seems like the perfect spot for a letdown game.  I do agree that we probably don't know the true identity of this Bengals team and they are probably better than their record suggests but the Bills are certainly a much, much better team than the Cardinals.  We know what the Cardinals are at this point (zero run game and probably the worst O-Line in the NFL).

 

IMO, just too many variables to trust Cincy.

 

Now, Palmer and the Cardinals going east to play a 1pm game vs a solid Eagles' front 7 sounds pretty good to me if you don't have Pitt in your pocket.

 

Vegas has Cincy as a field goal favorite. Seems like Vegas is trying to bait people into taking the Bills. 

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I like NY Giants at home vs LAC ---- Chargers are coming across the country and no way Giants can go 0-5 right ( although I would love that)

Also Minnesota vs Chicago --- they have a good def and going vs a rookie QB with no weapons

 

I don't trust Pitt as Jax has hit or miss defense..

Edited by dumherb1
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This has to be the hardest week yet. At first glance, it looks to be the perfect week to get a bad team out of the way - a team you may not want to use the rest of the year. Deciding which is impossible. Anyone have a strong feeling either way?

 

Jets @ Cleveland - Away game for a bad team, tough spot. Although you won't ever use them again this year.

Ravens @ Indy - No Luck, but the Raven's look atrocious.

Vikings @ Chicago - Another road game, no Cook. Going against a rookie QB.

Titans @Miami - Yet again a road game, although likely no Mariota.

 

I want to lean Steelers but I have a bad feeling. Home game but the Jags have a very solid defense and Big Ben hasn't looked great.

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19 minutes ago, bgar15 said:

This has to be the hardest week yet. At first glance, it looks to be the perfect week to get a bad team out of the way - a team you may not want to use the rest of the year. Deciding which is impossible. Anyone have a strong feeling either way?

 

Jets @ Cleveland - Away game for a bad team, tough spot. Although you won't ever use them again this year.

Ravens @ Indy - No Luck, but the Raven's look atrocious.

Vikings @ Chicago - Another road game, no Cook. Going against a rookie QB.

Titans @Miami - Yet again a road game, although likely no Mariota.

 

I want to lean Steelers but I have a bad feeling. Home game but the Jags have a very solid defense and Big Ben hasn't looked great.

 

Niners @ Indy

 

Ravens @ OAK

Edited by ludawg23
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1 hour ago, bgar15 said:

This has to be the hardest week yet. At first glance, it looks to be the perfect week to get a bad team out of the way - a team you may not want to use the rest of the year. Deciding which is impossible. Anyone have a strong feeling either way?

 

Jets @ Cleveland - Away game for a bad team, tough spot. Although you won't ever use them again this year.

Ravens @ Indy - No Luck, but the Raven's look atrocious.

Vikings @ Chicago - Another road game, no Cook. Going against a rookie QB.

Titans @Miami - Yet again a road game, although likely no Mariota.

 

I want to lean Steelers but I have a bad feeling. Home game but the Jags have a very solid defense and Big Ben hasn't looked great.

 

I disagree, I think this is a very bad week to get a bad team out of the way. I wouldn't feel comfortable making any of those picks. Not a Jets believer just yet, Ravens look terrible, Vikings missing  Bradford and Cook, and Titans need to be saved for a week where Mariota starts. And all of those teams are on the road. When I want to use a bad team, I try to look for a slam dunk matchup at home, all those are too iffy.

 

This is a week where I would only feel comfortable with Pitt or Philly.

Edited by atrium
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1 hour ago, atrium said:

 

I disagree, I think this is a very bad week to get a bad team out of the way. I wouldn't feel comfortable making any of those picks. Not a Jets believer just yet, Ravens look terrible, Vikings missing  Bradford and Cook, and Titans need to be saved for a week where Mariota starts. And all of those teams are on the road. When I want to use a bad team, I try to look for a slam dunk matchup at home, all those are too iffy.

 

This is a week where I would only feel comfortable with Pitt or Philly.

 

I guess what was my point. At first glance it looks prime to get one of those bad teams out of the way, but there's such huge question marks even with the favorites

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23 minutes ago, bgar15 said:

 

I guess what was my point. At first glance it looks prime to get one of those bad teams out of the way, but there's such huge question marks even with the favorites

I dunno, I guess see the Pitt and Philly picks as far safer than you do. They aren't great picks, but they're leagues above those others. 

 

Im a big proponent of using bad teams when the opportunity presents itself but this isn't one of those weeks. Picking a bad team on the road is like playing Russian roulette with a revolver with only two chambers.

 

Now if we want to talk good contrarian picks, this is a great week cause a good 75%+ of picks will probably be concentrated between those two games. If either Philly or Pitt loses,  pools are gonna take a sizable hit. If they both lose, congrats on pretty much winning your pool

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4 minutes ago, atrium said:

I dunno, I guess see the Pitt and Philly picks as far safer than you do. They aren't great picks, but they're leagues above those others. 

 

Im a big proponent of using bad teams when the opportunity presents itself but this isn't one of those weeks. Picking a bad team on the road is like playing Russian roulette with a revolver with only two chambers.

 

Now if we want to talk good contrarian picks, this is a great week cause a good 75%+ of picks will probably be concentrated between those two games. If either Philly or Pitt loses,  pools are gonna take a sizable hit. If they both lose, congrats on pretty much winning your pool

 

The Eagles barely put away NYG and LAC both 0-4 teams. I don't think they are a lock by a long shot. 

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47 minutes ago, atrium said:

I dunno, I guess see the Pitt and Philly picks as far safer than you do. They aren't great picks, but they're leagues above those others. 

 

Im a big proponent of using bad teams when the opportunity presents itself but this isn't one of those weeks. Picking a bad team on the road is like playing Russian roulette with a revolver with only two chambers.

 

Now if we want to talk good contrarian picks, this is a great week cause a good 75%+ of picks will probably be concentrated between those two games. If either Philly or Pitt loses,  pools are gonna take a sizable hit. If they both lose, congrats on pretty much winning your pool

 

Completely agree - what's the next "safest" pick after those two in your opinion?

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26 minutes ago, bgar15 said:

 

Completely agree - what's the next "safest" pick after those two in your opinion?

 

Ugh. I'd probably put my faith in the hands of the GOAT and go with NE tonight. If you mean from your list earlier, I like Minnesota the best.

 

Imo people picking games like the Buf/Cincy game are nuts. You know a game is unreliable when half of survivor people are picking one team and half are picking the other

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1 minute ago, atrium said:

 

Ugh. I'd probably put my faith in the hands of the GOAT and go with NE tonight. If you mean from your list earlier, I like Minnesota the best.

 

Imo people picking games like the Buf/Cincy game are nuts. You know a game is unreliable when half of survivor people are picking one team and half are picking the other

 

Agreed on Minnesota. Although IF Mariota plays, I may go with the Titans...

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