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Buy Low - Sell High 2017


TonyVH
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2 hours ago, affliction said:

Wondering what I can get for Julio need a rb. I can probably get cj but feels like I'm getting robbed

 

I would feel like I was getting robbed too on that deal. Is it PPR league?  FInd the owner that needs the most WR help but also a stable RB core. You should be looking for equal value or as close to it as possible for Julio. I personally am not a CJ believer so that might be why I am biased.

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1 hour ago, jspeed said:

 

It feels like a lot of people in this thread don't understand the whole sell high buy low thing.   Just because you don't believe in him doesn't mean he's over-priced.  

 

Someone here called him a sell-high because he was able to trade him for Julio Jones.  Again ... you got a ton of value in trade, good for you.  But the rest of us are not getting Julio Jones for Dalvin Cook. 

 

Look at where he is in ROS rankings right now ... RB11 in PPR and RB13 in standard

 

Guess I found a cook owner 

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1 hour ago, sanderz16 said:

Glad to see some Doug Martin chatter in here bcs I'm personally having a tough time gauging his value.  That offense should eat but what Doug shows up off his suspension?  For context in my 10 team standard league, the value for Doug at the moment (what the owner is shopping him at) is around a 1 for 1 for Keenan Allen types.  To me, seems about fair.

Own both Doug Martin and Keenan Allen - no way in hell I'd move Allen for Doug Martin. No way. When healthy, Allen is a WR1.

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1 hour ago, jspeed said:

 

So what you're saying is that you don't believe in Cook.  I heard you the first time.  

 

Most Dalvin Cook owners drafted him precisely because they do believe in him.  Think of it like buying a piece of a company on the stock market.  Most people buy a stock to hold and appreciate.  Most of us spent a third or fourth round draft pick on Dalvin Cook.  So we don't see a trade for another third or fourth rounder as a selling opportunity.

 

 

Instead of being condescending and saying others don't understand the concept here, you simply could have just said you didn't agree with us and that he will maintain the same value.

 

Bradford is hurting, the line is terrible and he had a big showing against the saints. I do not feel his value throughout the year will ever be higher then it was hence the sell high. 

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1 hour ago, Nyblazer11235 said:

 

 

Instead of being condescending and saying others don't understand the concept here, you simply could have just said you didn't agree with us and that he will maintain the same value.

 

Bradford is hurting, the line is terrible and he had a big showing against the saints. I do not feel his value throughout the year will ever be higher then it was hence the sell high. 

 

"Sell High" implies that this is a selling opportunity.  So if in a few weeks all of the Dalvin Cook owners are saying, "Man I wish I would have sold him after week 2"... that's a sell high.

 

What you're talking about is more along the lines of "Cut your losses".

 

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8 minutes ago, jspeed said:

 

"Sell High" implies that this is a selling opportunity.  So if in a few weeks all of the Dalvin Cook owners are saying, "Man I wish I would have sold him after week 2"... that's a sell high.

 

What you're talking about is more along the lines of "Cut your losses".

 

 

That is exactly what I am saying and I think many cook owners will be singing that tune later in the year.

 

Cutting your losses can be a way to describe selling high. You assume a players true value is less than his perceived value. You want to move him for something greater or equal to said perceived value before it is exposed that they are overrated. I believe his value will decline over the season so I would move him now. 

 

 

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42 minutes ago, Nyblazer11235 said:

 

That is exactly what I am saying and I think many cook owners will be singing that tune later in the year.

 

Cutting your losses can be a way to describe selling high. You assume a players true value is less than his perceived value. You want to move him for something greater or equal to said perceived value before it is exposed that they are overrated. I believe his value will decline over the season so I would move him now. 

 

 

 

crazy imo

 

value going to decline from what? is murray going to suddenly take all his carries? these past 2 weeks have pretty much been his floor, week 1 was good no td tho, week 2 was a bad game script for him and still got decent yardage and almost a TD with the backup QB (huge factor) which would have made 2 good weeks, how do you see him getting any worse unless you think he turns from one of the most productive YPC RB to one of the worst with his guaranteed 15-20 touches minimum which has probably a 1% of happening

 

 

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6 hours ago, affliction said:

Wondering what I can get for Julio need a rb. I can probably get cj but feels like I'm getting robbed

 

That would be the definition of a sell low-buy high trade. Julio has produced below his EV so far, and CJ has produced above his EV. If each player's level of play continues, you win the trade. If each players level of play returns to what we previously expected would happen, you lose the trade. Seasons are won and lost on decisions such as these. It is the classic, name vs production trade. Good luck.

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1 hour ago, kmoore1521 said:

 

crazy imo

 

value going to decline from what? is murray going to suddenly take all his carries? these past 2 weeks have pretty much been his floor, week 1 was good no td tho, week 2 was a bad game script for him and still got decent yardage and almost a TD with the backup QB (huge factor) which would have made 2 good weeks, how do you see him getting any worse unless you think he turns from one of the most productive YPC RB to one of the worst with his guaranteed 15-20 touches minimum which has probably a 1% of happening

 

 

 

Jesus another cook fanboy. As I've said I think his first game showing was more a product of the saints d then the minny offense. 

 

The line was crap last year, what exactly changed? Bradford banged up who knows the full deal there.

 

i just don't envision many positive game scripts that allow him to run wild like he did in week 1. And you could probably still sell him in some leagues as a low end rb1 based off that game, which I don't think he is.

 

 

 

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5 hours ago, Nyblazer11235 said:

 

That is exactly what I am saying and I think many cook owners will be singing that tune later in the year.

 

Cutting your losses can be a way to describe selling high. You assume a players true value is less than his perceived value. You want to move him for something greater or equal to said perceived value before it is exposed that they are overrated. I believe his value will decline over the season so I would move him now. 

 

 

 

Cooks value isn't going down.  Even if he's inefficient he's a 3-down, goalline, workhorse back.  The rationale that you give is baked into his value.

 

The bad Cook scenario is that his value stays where it is.  In that case the worst his owners will say is ... maybe I shouldn''t have hung on for that long.  But at this point there's more reason to hope that things will get better from here.  No one will regret holding him past week 2 in any scenario.  This is not a selling opportunity.

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9 hours ago, sanderz16 said:

Glad to see some Doug Martin chatter in here bcs I'm personally having a tough time gauging his value.  That offense should eat but what Doug shows up off his suspension?  For context in my 10 team standard league, the value for Doug at the moment (what the owner is shopping him at) is around a 1 for 1 for Keenan Allen types.  To me, seems about fair.

 

I wouldn't trade Martin yet.  The Martin that shows up after suspension may not be great, but he will be super motivated.  The suspension voided the guarantees on his contract.  He is super motivated now for financial reasons.  It is showing as well in the way he showed up to camp and all the reports.  Unless he gets hurt I suspect we'll see the guy who put up great numbers in his 2 big years.

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11 minutes ago, jspeed said:

 

Cooks value isn't going down.  Even if he's inefficient he's a 3-down, goalline, workhorse back.  The rationale that you give is baked into his value.

 

The bad Cook scenario is that his value stays where it is.  In that case the worst his owners will say is ... maybe I shouldn''t have hung on for that long.  But at this point there's more reason to hope that things will get better from here.  No one will regret holding him past week 2 in any scenario.  This is not a selling opportunity.

 

It absolutely could go down. Just look at gurleys fall from grace last year. Talented rb running behind a terrible line with no passing game to take some pressure off and see what he did. How quickly did that stock crash?

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10 hours ago, Nyblazer11235 said:

 

Jesus another cook fanboy. As I've said I think his first game showing was more a product of the saints d then the minny offense. 

 

The line was crap last year, what exactly changed? Bradford banged up who knows the full deal there.

 

i just don't envision many positive game scripts that allow him to run wild like he did in week 1. And you could probably still sell him in some leagues as a low end rb1 based off that game, which I don't think he is.

 

 

 

The 5 new starters?

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10 hours ago, maxim730 said:

why do some think Howard is a buy low? was Langford a buy low last year?

 

Howard is the very definition of a buy low.  Consensus late rd1/early rd2 draft pick that has thus far under performed and is dealing with a shoulder injury.  If you believe he will start to perform as he did last year, this is the time to try to trade for him.  

 

Do people really not know how this whole "buy low / sell high" thing works?

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1 minute ago, dre said:

 

Howard is the very definition of a buy low.  Consensus late rd1/early rd2 draft pick that has thus far under performed and is dealing with a shoulder injury.  If you believe he will start to perform as he did last year, this is the time to try to trade for him.  

 

Do people really not know how this whole "buy low / sell high" thing works?

 

Yeah, but that's only if you valued him as a late rd1/early rd2 RB. Some people were avoiding him because they thought he was a bust risk and now many of those fears are being realized.

 

I'm not saying he's NOT a buy-low btw...it's possible his perceived value has plummeted too far in the other direction and you can get him for pennies. But buy low/sell high isn't just about today value vs. draft day value...it's also about where you think the road leads for that player. 

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2 minutes ago, BronXBombers51 said:

 

Yeah, but that's only if you valued him as a late rd1/early rd2 RB. Some people were avoiding him because they thought he was a bust risk and now many of those fears are being realized.

 

I'm not saying he's NOT a buy-low btw...it's possible his perceived value has plummeted too far in the other direction and you can get him for pennies. But buy low/sell high isn't just about today value vs. draft day value...it's also about where you think the road leads for that player. 

 

I completely agree with you.  Obviously, if you didn't/don't believe in Howard's ability, and avoided him on draft day, you probably won't be trying to buy low on him today.  But he had an ADP of late rd1/early rd2 for a reason.  The reason being, a lot of people did/do believe in his ability, which means there were lots of people who would have drafted him at his ADP but missed out on him.  Those are the people who should be targeting him right now.

 

To me it really is as simple as this.  Player X was drafted in Rd 1.  After two weeks of the season he has, let's say, 7 pts.  I believe that player X will turn his season around.  I'm going to try to buy-low on player X.

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