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Jusuf Nurkic 2017-2018 Season Outlook


LYz
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I ain't gonna lie but I kinda fell for the hype on this guy in my draft; however, in the 20 games he played for Portland, he looked like a beast, and I feel confident he can put up similar numbers this season.

The 20 games avg. in Portland: .508 FG% (6.0 FG/11.8 FGA)/ . 660 FT% (3.2 FT/4.9FTA)/ 0 3PM/ 10.4 Reb/ 3.2 Ast/ 1.3 Stl. 1.6 Blk/ 15.2 Pts/ 3.1 TO
Total games played (with DEN & POR) was 65, most he has ever played.

Luckily for me I play in 8Cat so the TO aren't too concerning for me.  His ESPN ADP is close to 45. What are your thoughts on him or concerns?

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I feel like he would be going later than the Griffin/Gasol/Lopez tier, which would be great if you are running certain strategies. 

Though his FT rate is suspect.. I had him for a good portion of the season and while I wasn't tanking FT, I was good for the bottom 4 in my 14-team league. I also didn't have an anchor. 

Definitely a target for punt FT if you already have Deandre or Drummond and don't want to overkill cats. The potential 3 assists and stocks are great, but being weak in FT and TO is quite odd and awkward to build around.

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16 hours ago, LYz said:

I ain't gonna lie but I kinda fell for the hype on this guy in my draft; however, in the 20 games he played for Portland, he looked like a beast, and I feel confident he can put up similar numbers this season.

The 20 games avg. in Portland: .508 FG% (6.0 FG/11.8 FGA)/ . 660 FT% (3.2 FT/4.9FTA)/ 0 3PM/ 10.4 Reb/ 3.2 Ast/ 1.3 Stl. 1.6 Blk/ 15.2 Pts/ 3.1 TO
Total games played (with DEN & POR) was 65, most he has ever played.

Luckily for me I play in 8Cat so the TO aren't too concerning for me.  His ESPN ADP is close to 45. What are your thoughts on him or concerns?

 

If he sustains his 50% FG in Portland then he's a pretty valuable commodity. Denver's issue was that they didn't have good point guard play to set up their bigs, Portland is much more suited to opening things up for their big men and they utilized him in the roll a lot more than Denver did. Denver gave him the occasional post up but really underestimated how good of a roller he is. 

 

He's a bit strange with his FT%, there is nothing to suggest he shouldn't be able to hit 70 - 75, he did so during FIBA play and also in preseason last year, there was a lot of promise. His form looks fine, but he has major fatigue issues and you see him come up extremely short on his misses and barely use his legs - this is mostly a sign of a guy who gets tired and it effects his jumpshot. He lost some weight last year and it showed once he received regular PT, but he has to keep his conditioning up.

 

His injuries are also a result of his poor conditioning (he stated so himself), he was carrying too much upperbody weight and put a lot of stress on his knees. What makes Jusuf so unique is that he's essentially Anthony Davis-lite stats wise. He'll give you insane steals/blocks/rebounds/assists to boot, but he's a killer in TO and FT% due to volume. There is no other big really like him in fantasy, it reminds me a little bit of Tony Wroten back in the day, he would drop triple doubles but it came at a severe cost to your percentages and turnovers. 

 

I just feel he is going a tad too early for my liking, to the point where I can't properly make up for his deficiencies. If he was in the 7th round or so it would at least give me enough good %/low TO players to possibly overcast his weaknesses, but at a 4th round cost I can't make that up in the latter rounds and he'll be a complete detriment to my builds because I have zero intention of ever tanking FT%. 

 

I drafted him in the 6th last year and I got burned badly. He spent 4 months doing absolutely nothing for me and he was too high of a pick to drop and s---y to the point that he was killing my team on a nightly basis. It was really infuriating seeing how Malone treated him, because I felt I had a gold-mine on my hands.

 

Although it sounds like a mostly negative critique of Jusuf, I think he could be a huge difference maker if you have a punt team or if you're somehow able to cover up for him. For example he would pair greatly with say a James Harden or a Westbrook. You punt TO, they have ridiculous FT% volume that it mitigates his impact, and if he shoots 50% then great he brings them up a bit in that department, while also stacking their rebounds/assists/steals and adding blocks.

 

Take him at one's own peril. 

 

Edited by Lifschitz
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TOs are never a concern for me and his play was so good in Portland last year in addition to hearing he has slimmed down a lot, so I'm pretty high on him even after drafting him a few times last year. Given the shortage of bigs in the league I don't think it's a stretch to grab him in the fourth. 

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53 games played average over first 3 years with a max of 65 games. Draft at your own risk, pretty sure they were talking about him slimming down last year as well. He survived 20 games at close to 30 MPG last year. 4th round seems pricey, he could potentially put up 3rd round per game value but season long feels more like 5/6th round at best.

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8 hours ago, BMart519 said:

53 games played average over first 3 years with a max of 65 games. Draft at your own risk, pretty sure they were talking about him slimming down last year as well. He survived 20 games at close to 30 MPG last year. 4th round seems pricey, he could potentially put up 3rd round per game value but season long feels more like 5/6th round at best.

I was on the Nurkic bandwagon last year and yes I can confirm how they were saying he was recovering well and slimmed down last year too. 

 

Whether you accept it or not Nurk is a high risk high reward player. I'd draft him a round or 2 after Drummond or DeAndre myself in H2h.

 

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High risk, High reward player. He should be motivated to have a big season. He's playing for a $100,000,000 plus contract. He has virtually no competition for playing time with scrubs like Ed Davis and Myers Leonard behind him. He was magical after the trade to Portland last season averaging a cool 15/10/3 with nearly 2 blocks. All the more impressive is that he posted those numbers in just 29 mins of action. The sample is small and he's disappointed managers in the past. His yahoo pre-rank right now is late 4th round. He seems worth a selection at that valuation. Assuming he is healthy, I wouldnt be surprised to see him drop 16ppg-10rpg-3apg with 1.5 Blocks as conservative floor. The upside is larger that he could post an 18ppg-12rpg-3.5apg- 2block line. 

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19 minutes ago, rob0403 said:

I seriously wouldn't draft him based on him being able to average 70 ish games though. His size is his own worst enemy when it comes to knee problems.

Well maybe his weight loss can help with that. We'll see. There aren't a lot of C options for a double double with a potential 3 stocks after the 5th round, let alone 3 assists. I'd rather gamble on Nurkic than have to settle for other guys later like JV or Gortat

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Jusuf Nurkic said that he'll "definitely" shoot the occasional 3-pointer this season.

Big men in the modern NBA are essentially required to make this sort of statement prior to the start of the season, but it's worth noting that through three years of NBA experience, Nurkic has attempted just six triples and missed all of them. Nurkic also said that he shed roughly 34 pounds this summer, so hopefully, that will help take some pressure off his legs and help him avoid injury. He'll be a high-risk, high-reward guy to take during the early middle-rounds on draft day.
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On 9/19/2017 at 1:02 PM, Code of Hammurabi said:

High risk, High reward player. He should be motivated to have a big season. He's playing for a $100,000,000 plus contract. He has virtually no competition for playing time with scrubs like Ed Davis and Myers Leonard behind him. He was magical after the trade to Portland last season averaging a cool 15/10/3 with nearly 2 blocks. All the more impressive is that he posted those numbers in just 29 mins of action. The sample is small and he's disappointed managers in the past. His yahoo pre-rank right now is late 4th round. He seems worth a selection at that valuation. Assuming he is healthy, I wouldnt be surprised to see him drop 16ppg-10rpg-3apg with 1.5 Blocks as conservative floor. The upside is larger that he could post an 18ppg-12rpg-3.5apg- 2block line. 

 

This... I took him #33 in Yahoo 9 cat keeper.. I needed one more good big man vs assists, and I took him basically over Rubio, Teague, Deandre and Drummond.  Tough choice but I guess this will be the make or break for my season.  I feel Nurkic has better chance to do shoot higher % FT than Deandre/Drummond, and I just didnt like those two PG at this pick.

 

He lost 35 pounds.  He said he's feeling great and good to go, and $$$ to come.  He is their 3rd option and played like it last year.  cant compare to Denver times.... feel sorry for the guy below's comments but those days in Denver are LONG past, and much like an NFL RB, nothing like NBA players to change teams and gain a new playing life they never thought possible.

 

 

 

On 9/18/2017 at 4:08 AM, Lifschitz said:

 

If he sustains his 50% FG in Portland then he's a pretty valuable commodity. Denver's issue was that they didn't have good point guard play to set up their bigs, Portland is much more suited to opening things up for their big men and they utilized him in the roll a lot more than Denver did. Denver gave him the occasional post up but really underestimated how good of a roller he is. 

 

He's a bit strange with his FT%, there is nothing to suggest he shouldn't be able to hit 70 - 75, he did so during FIBA play and also in preseason last year, there was a lot of promise. His form looks fine, but he has major fatigue issues and you see him come up extremely short on his misses and barely use his legs - this is mostly a sign of a guy who gets tired and it effects his jumpshot. He lost some weight last year and it showed once he received regular PT, but he has to keep his conditioning up.

 

His injuries are also a result of his poor conditioning (he stated so himself), he was carrying too much upperbody weight and put a lot of stress on his knees. What makes Jusuf so unique is that he's essentially Anthony Davis-lite stats wise. He'll give you insane steals/blocks/rebounds/assists to boot, but he's a killer in TO and FT% due to volume. There is no other big really like him in fantasy, it reminds me a little bit of Tony Wroten back in the day, he would drop triple doubles but it came at a severe cost to your percentages and turnovers. 

 

I just feel he is going a tad too early for my liking, to the point where I can't properly make up for his deficiencies. If he was in the 7th round or so it would at least give me enough good %/low TO players to possibly overcast his weaknesses, but at a 4th round cost I can't make that up in the latter rounds and he'll be a complete detriment to my builds because I have zero intention of ever tanking FT%. 

 

I drafted him in the 6th last year and I got burned badly. He spent 4 months doing absolutely nothing for me and he was too high of a pick to drop and s---y to the point that he was killing my team on a nightly basis. It was really infuriating seeing how Malone treated him, because I felt I had a gold-mine on my hands.

 

Although it sounds like a mostly negative critique of Jusuf, I think he could be a huge difference maker if you have a punt team or if you're somehow able to cover up for him. For example he would pair greatly with say a James Harden or a Westbrook. You punt TO, they have ridiculous FT% volume that it mitigates his impact, and if he shoots 50% then great he brings them up a bit in that department, while also stacking their rebounds/assists/steals and adding blocks.

 

Take him at one's own peril. 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, THE_MAGIC_MAN said:

Anyone see what happened? how long do players usually stay in the nba concussion protocol? 

That really depends, i remember last season Larry nance was playing again after like a week while i had al Horford and he was out for multiple weeks

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