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Gorgui Dieng 2017-2018 Season Outlook


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The point I was really trying to make before you guys got all the people confused is that, the people that replaced the people who left are better at scoring and rebounding thus hurting Dieng’s value. I may be mis speaking here, but if I remember correctly wasn’t most of Dieng’s points/rebounds last year based off of missed shots and putbacks?

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9 minutes ago, RedDogNamedClippers said:

The point I was really trying to make before you guys got all the people confused is that, the people that replaced the people who left are better at scoring and rebounding thus hurting Dieng’s value. I may be mis speaking here, but if I remember correctly wasn’t most of Dieng’s points/rebounds last year based off of missed shots and putbacks?

He actually has good post moves, athleticism, and a strong midrange game.  So I don't think so.  In real life I think he's getting a raw deal because he's a complete two-way player.  If it wasn't for being in the same front court as KAT I think he would get a lot more touches.  Before that, he was competing with Garnett's fairwell tour and Pec.  So he's never really gotten a fair shake.  Even so, I don't think most of his points were based on put-backs.

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I think the only stats we see Dieng dropping is scoring, his playing time,  rebounding, blocking, steals FG and FT should stay about the same because thib loves to run a short rotation on the players he trust and able to play in his defense system. Also Twolves defense should be a lot better which will force the opponent team to miss more shots and more TOs to generate more defense rebounds, steals and help defense blocks for the wolves bigs.

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its where you draft dieng. IMO, his minutes are safe to be AT LEAST close to 30mins. and his production 2 seasons ago at 27min per are very identical to last seasons where he played at 32min. so basically, you know what youre gonna get from him. some might find his stat line boring, but where youre gonna get him and what other BIG there available at that spot seems he is undervalued. after doing mocks, he is easily available in the late 70s and in the 80s. that is 7th-8th round range. thats good value, even better if youre not punting FT. im not into the whole ranking stuff, im more into the position ranking. other BIG in that range are WCS, adams, valanciunas and gortat. he is a no brainer pick over those guys if youre not punting FT. even if you are, WCS and adams are the only other BIG i consider over him. WCS for the upside, and adams for the fit in the build.

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36 minutes ago, ber said:

I think the only stats we see Dieng dropping is scoring, his playing time,  rebounding, blocking, steals FG and FT should stay about the same because thib loves to run a short rotation on the players he trust and able to play in his defense system. Also Twolves defense should be a lot better which will force the opponent team to miss more shots and more TOs to generate more defense rebounds, steals and help defense blocks for the wolves bigs.

Thib's loves to use his players. Unfortunately, this means Taj Gibson is going to get a ton of run. Probably as many minutes as he can handle physically. 

 

The Wolves don't need any offense since Teague is now option #4 after KAT, Butler, and Wiggins. They just need toughness, grit, defense, etc. out of the 4 spot. I think Dieng would greatly benefit from a change of scenery, but he is stuck in Minnesota and I am just really worried about Taj to draft him unless he falls a lot. 

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2 hours ago, RedDogNamedClippers said:

The point I was really trying to make before you guys got all the people confused is that, the people that replaced the people who left are better at scoring and rebounding thus hurting Dieng’s value. I may be mis speaking here, but if I remember correctly wasn’t most of Dieng’s points/rebounds last year based off of missed shots and putbacks?

 

Actually, every single one of his rebounds was based off of missed shots.

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2 hours ago, Kenny Mack said:

its where you draft dieng. IMO, his minutes are safe to be AT LEAST close to 30mins. and his production 2 seasons ago at 27min per are very identical to last seasons where he played at 32min. so basically, you know what youre gonna get from him. some might find his stat line boring, but where youre gonna get him and what other BIG there available at that spot seems he is undervalued. after doing mocks, he is easily available in the late 70s and in the 80s. that is 7th-8th round range. thats good value, even better if youre not punting FT. im not into the whole ranking stuff, im more into the position ranking. other BIG in that range are WCS, adams, valanciunas and gortat. he is a no brainer pick over those guys if youre not punting FT. even if you are, WCS and adams are the only other BIG i consider over him. WCS for the upside, and adams for the fit in the build.

 

Dieng is actually a fine choice for the punt ft% build because of his great out of position steals and the stellar fg%. He even chips in some threes (more than Adams and WCS at least). You just have to make sure to have plenty of points already or you'll be doing a double punt. 

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yup, i said it there. even if you are punting FT, dieng is still a good value in the late 70s-80s. i mean, in some mocks dieng even drops into the 90s and 100s. which is absurd. dont know bout the fuss bout his minutes or role, gibson is not a threat. he is not a starter at this point of his career, especially not over dieng.  you know what youre gonna get from him, and its not like he going early in drafts. he is annually underrated, and this season is no different. he might actually be a great value pick this season compared to the last 2 seasons, where he was being picked in the 60-70 range.

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58 minutes ago, Kenny Mack said:

yup, i said it there. even if you are punting FT, dieng is still a good value in the late 70s-80s. i mean, in some mocks dieng even drops into the 90s and 100s. which is absurd. dont know bout the fuss bout his minutes or role, gibson is not a threat. he is not a starter at this point of his career, especially not over dieng.  you know what youre gonna get from him, and its not like he going early in drafts. he is annually underrated, and this season is no different. he might actually be a great value pick this season compared to the last 2 seasons, where he was being picked in the 60-70 range.

 

Seems like Dieng would be much more valuable to a punt points or punt assists team than a punt FT team imo

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16 hours ago, StifleTower2 said:

Actually, he's plus in every category in 9 cat aside from points, threes, and assists.  It's the old argument about whether you should follow the metrics on BBM or just go all-out on counting stats, efficiency be damned.  A lot of people believe you should focus on metrics in roto and in H2H go for pure counting stats, not necessarily punting efficiency, but not making it a priority either. 

 

If my first few rounds went something like this: Kawhi, CP3, Horford, Porter then I would definitely be looking for someone like Dieng in the 5th round.  My efficiency is already elite and I don't want to do anything to screw that up.  Conversely, if my draft went something like: Westbrook, Cousins, Bledsoe, Love where I was punting FG/TO then he would literally be undraftable.  Low volume/high efficiency guys aren't going to buoy your percentages too much but at the very least they can avoid screwing them up. 

 

Key thing here is he WAS a plus in every category (aside from...)...WAS.

 

Lets look at who has come in. Butler>>>LaVine. Will score more, dime more, have higher usage and hustles more (potentially taking away from other "hustlers"...although def not a guarantee). He'll probs score about 24ppg 6rbs. Teague much much greater scorer than Rubio. Probably score about 15ppg, he'll have pretty high usage. Wiggins still developing and should improve with a better case. He is going to eat. May take a slight hit in pts. Maybe 23ppg, but I think he might improve a little in rbs as he continues to learn positioning 4.5rebs. KAT starting to compete for best big in the game. He is going to get even better 26ppg, 12rbs. Plus Crawford provides bench scoring.

 

That doesn't leave much left for Gorgui, which means the 7 ppg and 7 rebs is very likely even if he stays at higher mins (which I doubt he will). Those other guys simply have to get theirs. Furthermore, I think he is going to lose some mins due to 5 out line ups and Taj (Tib fave). 23-25 mpg I peg him at. Naturally less mins means less stocks. All in all its less positive cats, and his efficiency doesn't provide any real value at all. I agree it would suit a build because he keeps a good team efficiency...good.

 

While I agree with the metrics sentiment - I also believe they have value to a certain point then you find guys that don't really contribute much of anything get elevated at the end because they don't have the big negative cats of other guys. But many guys lower can be so much more useful if you can accomodate their weaknesses

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1 hour ago, Jake the snake said:

 

Key thing here is he WAS a plus in every category (aside from...)...WAS.

 

Lets look at who has come in. Butler>>>LaVine. Will score more, dime more, have higher usage and hustles more (potentially taking away from other "hustlers"...although def not a guarantee). He'll probs score about 24ppg 6rbs. Teague much much greater scorer than Rubio. Probably score about 15ppg, he'll have pretty high usage. Wiggins still developing and should improve with a better case. He is going to eat. May take a slight hit in pts. Maybe 23ppg, but I think he might improve a little in rbs as he continues to learn positioning 4.5rebs. KAT starting to compete for best big in the game. He is going to get even better 26ppg, 12rbs. Plus Crawford provides bench scoring.

 

That doesn't leave much left for Gorgui, which means the 7 ppg and 7 rebs is very likely even if he stays at higher mins (which I doubt he will). Those other guys simply have to get theirs. Furthermore, I think he is going to lose some mins due to 5 out line ups and Taj (Tib fave). 23-25 mpg I peg him at. Naturally less mins means less stocks. All in all its less positive cats, and his efficiency doesn't provide any real value at all. I agree it would suit a build because he keeps a good team efficiency...good.

 

While I agree with the metrics sentiment - I also believe they have value to a certain point then you find guys that don't really contribute much of anything get elevated at the end because they don't have the big negative cats of other guys. But many guys lower can be so much more useful if you can accomodate their weaknesses

I'm not on the Dieng hype train this year, but blocks is the only stat that doesn't really relate to minutes. sometimes even the opposite as the players who need to stay on the court longer can be less aggressive to chase blocks because they don't want to risk foul trouble. that is why extrapolating blocks doesn't really work because more minutes does't mean more blocks a lot of times

 

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2 hours ago, Jake the snake said:

 

While I agree with the metrics sentiment - I also believe they have value to a certain point then you find guys that don't really contribute much of anything get elevated at the end because they don't have the big negative cats of other guys. But many guys lower can be so much more useful if you can accomodate their weaknesses

I disagree about his value going down.  I think we have enough sample size to know what he will do with 25-27 MPG because we have an entire season of data that shows he will still be top 50 with that amount of playing time.  I don't think having Teague/Butler on the court will impact him negatively because almost the entirety of his value comes from stocks and efficiency which neither of them will impact.

 

The one thing we do agree on is that metrics type players (by that I mean players whose value is derived primarily from stocks and the three efficiency cats) often look better on paper (BBM spreadsheets) than they are in real leagues.  Whereas, the popcorn stat leaders (Points, assists, threes, rebounds) often are easier to assimilate and have more impact in real H2H matchups.

 

The problem with your reasoning is that you are approaching the problem backwards.  You're not drafting Dieng and building a team around him.  If I was doing that, I would much rather have a Devin Booker or Schroder at the same price point and punt FG/TO or a Dwight Howard and punt FT/TO, for example.  But we're not really doing that.  We're putting him on a team that is already built.  If you put Howard on a balanced, efficient team then it's possible he is a net negative.  He may win you FG/Reb/Blks but it's possible you're losing those categories even with him, or already winning them without him.  It depends on where you are with those cats before drafting him and your opponent's team in H2H.  One thing is for sure, he will cause you to lose FT% if you're not already doing so.  The same could be said with Booker regarding FG/TO.  He may or may not win you points and threes, but one thing is for certain, he will crush you in FG/TO.  So while there may be teams in which Dieng is not really the guy you are looking for, there may be teams that could really use a low volume/high efficiency guy.  One thing is clear with Dieng, he will play 82 games, and will never be a net negative.  Although it may be overly simplistic, the only advice I can give someone is put him on teams where you are already punting points, and don't put him on teams where you are punting other categories that would negate his value.

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1 hour ago, StifleTower2 said:

I disagree about his value going down.  I think we have enough sample size to know what he will do with 25-27 MPG because we have an entire season of data that shows he will still be top 50 with that amount of playing time.  I don't think having Teague/Butler on the court will impact him negatively because almost the entirety of his value comes from stocks and efficiency which neither of them will impact.

 

I'm a roto guy, but I just don't see his value this season with the new team (my estimates for Butler, KAT, Wiggins and Teague alone - which I think are pretty close is 88pts per game and Jamal is coming off the bench - I do expect them to average A LOT of points this year and again defence is where they are going to have to pick it up to compete with the big boys). Especially where you are talking about. 5th round seems madness to me. Good luck to you if you select him there. I guess we'll have to agree to disagree on this. Just don't see his value:

 

50FG% (~3/6) 80Ft% (0.8/1) 0.3 threes 7pts 7rbs 1.3 ast 0.9 blks 0.9 stls 1.0 TOs

 

I'd consider him at about the 100 mark if he was still around, but I think I much prefer to swing for a high upside guy that can change your chances rather than such a boring line that will be sitting on your bench about 90% of the time.

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8 minutes ago, Jake the snake said:

 

I'm a roto guy, but I just don't see his value this season with the new team (my estimates for Butler, KAT, Wiggins and Teague alone - which I think are pretty close is 88pts per game and Jamal is coming off the bench - I do expect them to average A LOT of points this year and again defence is where they are going to have to pick it up to compete with the big boys). Especially where you are talking about. 5th round seems madness to me. Good luck to you if you select him there. I guess we'll have to agree to disagree on this. Just don't see his value:

 

50FG% (~3/6) 80Ft% (0.8/1) 0.3 threes 7pts 7rbs 1.3 ast 0.9 blks 0.9 stls 1.0 TOs

 

I'd consider him at about the 100 mark if he was still around, but I think I much prefer to swing for a high upside guy that can change your chances rather than such a boring line that will be sitting on your bench about 90% of the time.

I never said I would pick him in the 5th round.  I said he will post top 50 value, but that's not the same as selecting him in the 5th round.  I said before, the earliest I would take a look is the 6th, maybe earlier if I was already punting points.  FWIW I've already done drafts in two money leagues this season and haven't selected him yet so I'm not absurdly high on him.  I just think it's interesting that a guy who has been top 50 two years in a row in 9 cat and played 82 games in both seasons isn't being considered until the 100 mark when nothing has drastically changed about his team, role, durability, etc.  Agree to disagree I guess :unsure:

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Just now, Jake the snake said:

 

I would be looking for someone like Dieng in the 5th round.  I never said I would actually draft him in the 5th round.  Rather, given my build he would be an appropriate candidate to consider.  As in if I drafted that sort of team, then he would be on my list, but there may be others even higher on my list.  I would actually draft him at the last possible moment before I thought someone else would draft him, which is what I would do with every player.  C'mon I've seen this discussed on the forums before.  You don't draft players at their value, you draft them one round ahead of their ADP. 

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1 hour ago, Jake the snake said:

 

I'm a roto guy, but I just don't see his value this season with the new team (my estimates for Butler, KAT, Wiggins and Teague alone - which I think are pretty close is 88pts per game and Jamal is coming off the bench - I do expect them to average A LOT of points this year and again defence is where they are going to have to pick it up to compete with the big boys). Especially where you are talking about. 5th round seems madness to me. Good luck to you if you select him there. I guess we'll have to agree to disagree on this. Just don't see his value:

 

50FG% (~3/6) 80Ft% (0.8/1) 0.3 threes 7pts 7rbs 1.3 ast 0.9 blks 0.9 stls 1.0 TOs

 

I'd consider him at about the 100 mark if he was still around, but I think I much prefer to swing for a high upside guy that can change your chances rather than such a boring line that will be sitting on your bench about 90% of the time.

You know these dudes are coached by Thibs, right? A team that ranked 22nd in pace last year. 

Think about super teams that get created with stars/heavy usage players. In almost every case everyone takes a hit on their stats when a super team is created. Often times one player takes the biggest hit. There is only one ball. There is a ton of talent in Minnesota, but one ball. At 88 ppg from Butler, KAT, Wiggins, Teague you are essentially pegging them in to score like 115+ points a game when you factor in Taj, Crawford, Dieng, etc. A Thibs coached team leading the world in scoring would be cool to see because I like the Wolves, but I would look at history and think that is unlikely to happen.

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1 minute ago, thezing1 said:

You know these dudes are coached by Thibs, right? A team that ranked 22nd in pace last year. 

Think about super teams that get created with stars/heavy usage players. In almost every case everyone takes a hit on their stats when a super team is created. Often times one player takes the biggest hit. There is only one ball. There is a ton of talent in Minnesota, but one ball. At 88 ppg from Butler, KAT, Wiggins, Teague you are essentially pegging them in to score like 115+ points a game when you factor in Taj, Crawford, Dieng, etc. A Thibs coached team leading the world in scoring would be cool to see because I like the Wolves, but I would look at history and think that is unlikely to happen.

Yeah it might be a little high: maybe 13 teague, 21 Wiggins 23 Butler 23 Kat. Still only down to 80. Jamal 11 Dieng 7 Taj 5 others 5 - 108ppg. If Tibs isn't looking to do that with that sort of fire power then I'd say they are in trouble. Point is with 5 scorers on the team Dieng is very much an afterthought. I could be totally wrong...just giving my opinion on why I'm not chasing Dieng

 

 

54 minutes ago, GrandGourou said:

 

Who ? I don't see many center with good stocks or high upside after pick N°100 ...

 

Centres no (maybe...big maybe Skal), but there are other guys in other positions. This seems a draft you have to get Centres really early otherwise you're gonna have problems. I'm chasing centres early and hard because I don't want to be relying on reaching for Dieng types in the mid to late rounds. I always prefer targeting glue guys that fall rather than having to reach for them.

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12 minutes ago, Jake the snake said:

Yeah it might be a little high: maybe 13 teague, 21 Wiggins 23 Butler 23 Kat. Still only down to 80. Jamal 11 Dieng 7 Taj 5 others 5 - 108ppg. If Tibs isn't looking to do that with that sort of fire power then I'd say they are in trouble. Point is with 5 scorers on the team Dieng is very much an afterthought. I could be totally wrong...just giving my opinion on why I'm not chasing Dieng

 

I hear you and I actually agree with your outlook on Dieng. Mine is primarily driven by Taj, but there is no denying that offensive touches and shots are going to be tough to come by. I was just giving a little perspective on the "super teams" because we usually think they will be unstoppable offensive forces and there is always a disappointment when reality sets in. I think D'Antoni is the only coach that runs the pace and offensive system to create a super team where each player in the new super team would have relatively similar fantasy production. 

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As KAT matures and Cs around the league shrink he is going to play more min at C, especially backup minutes.  They brought in Taj who does a lot of the same things Dieng does but is a more physical player and they brought in 2 scorers that are decidedly going to take touches away.

 

He is a fine player but I'm not touching him with a 10 foot pole.

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