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Alex Collins 2017 Season Outlook


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9 minutes ago, Jetdog16 said:

No passing game involvement. Bottom-five offense in the league, and competition for touches. Needs 1-2 injuries in Baltimore in order to be a strong fantasy play.

 

I'd say if all he did was take RZ touches from Buck he'd be a "strong fantasy play"

Remember, although it would be nice most of us don't necessarily need or expect Zeke type production from Collins.

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15 minutes ago, BrokeLoser said:

 

I'd say if all he did was take RZ touches from Buck he'd be a "strong fantasy play"

Remember, although it would be nice most of us don't necessarily need or expect Zeke type production from Collins.

 

rz touches would definitely make him fantasy relevant.

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2 hours ago, dashoe said:

 

Nothing close to semantics. He gets zero red zone work, limited carries and no catches. YPC doesnt make him fantasy relevant with single digit point totals. The proof is in the usage and his points total.

YPC is a gawdawful metric  when comparing rb's and its useless for fantasy purposes as an indicator of point production.

It completely ignores context of situation, usage, distribution of runs, etc. 

Eye test is also irrelevant in terms of scoring fantasy points. 

Situation, opportunity and execution are what matters in fantasy. 

 

This game of wordplay and semantics is super fun...Thanks.

So ignore YPC on opportunities given and never consider explosiveness and unique running dynamics when targeting up and comers?....Hmmm, got it.

Well, the good news I guess, is Collins is in the right situation, has been provided opportunity and has executed on said opportunities.

"It completely ignores context of situation, usage, distribution of runs, etc."

Question: Where do I find these analytics? Does someone keep this on record? Would I need to watch every play of every game?

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1 hour ago, ST. STEVEN said:

The 2 biggest takeaways for me from last couple games:

1) NO FUMBLES, which is huge for this dude

2) Still far and away the most dangerous runner they have and they have his increased carries

 

This. Only a matter of time before he's handed the keys.

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16 minutes ago, BrokeLoser said:

 

This game of wordplay and semantics is super fun...Thanks.

So ignore YPC on opportunities given and never consider explosiveness and unique running dynamics when targeting up and comers?....Hmmm, got it.

Well, the good news I guess, is Collins is in the right situation, has been provided opportunity and has executed on said opportunities.

"It completely ignores context of situation, usage, distribution of runs, etc."

Question: Where do I find these analytics? Does someone keep this on record? Would I need to watch every play of every game?

 

1. It can't be SEMANTICS  if you  are using YPC as an indicator of fantasy success and I am saying YPC is an irrelevant measure.

 

2. Al Gore created this awesome invention on his days off called the INTERWEBS (humor) and experts believe that it will change how we live and learn in the future. . .:lol:

 

3. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb  if you want some other analytical measures aside from ypc lots of sites have analytics

 

4. Negative sarcasm used in argumentation impedes your ability to challenge what you think you know.  You are too invested in trying to prove your view as correct and mine as wrong.  I simply don't agree with your arguments and am accepting that you don't agree with mine but have no problem that you have your view.

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This guy is tough to own in PPR.  Zero catches, zero red zone opportunities.  So basically he is a two down thumper between the 20s?  And splitting that role as well?

 

He wouldn't fetch much in return in a trade.  I'm tempted to drop, don't want to drop him for nothing, but with bye weeks, unfortunately he might be going.

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40 minutes ago, CooL said:

This guy is tough to own in PPR.  Zero catches, zero red zone opportunities.  So basically he is a two down thumper between the 20s?  And splitting that role as well?

 

He wouldn't fetch much in return in a trade.  I'm tempted to drop, don't want to drop him for nothing, but with bye weeks, unfortunately he might be going.

At this point in time he's really only valuable in standard leagues. I have high hopes for Collins. Hopefully he can get the volume and become a very solid RB2/Flex player. 

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On 10/19/2017 at 7:54 AM, yahyahtrick said:

The thing about the targets and redzone / GL looks is, you'll never know they're coming until Collins is catching passes or running it in from the 1yard line. 

 

And by that time, unless you have high priority, it'll be too late. 

 

I feel that if either targets or GL were in the cards, we would have seen a hint of it already.  There has not been a glimmer.  They seem to really love Allen in those roles, so we could be hoping against hope here.  I would like nothing else but to have Collins prove me wrong.

 

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11 minutes ago, Rolling Thunder said:

 

I feel that if either targets or GL were in the cards, we would have seen a hint of it already.  There has not been a glimmer.  They seem to really love Allen in those roles, so we could be hoping against hope here.  I would like nothing else but to have Collins prove me wrong.

 

His usage uptick is moving at a snails pace, never have seen a guy be so productive have this little upside. Baffling

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11 minutes ago, dakimbell said:

His usage uptick is moving at a snails pace, never have seen a guy be so productive have this little upside. Baffling

 

I agree. At this rate he’s going to fumble again and blow it before he carves out a big enough role to be startable

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26 minutes ago, dakimbell said:

His usage uptick is moving at a snails pace, never have seen a guy be so productive have this little upside. Baffling

 

Someone in Baltimore should be fired for not turning this dude loose.

Flacco has never needed play-action to be more effective and no defense respects Buck...you'd think someone on staff would know this.

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50 minutes ago, BrokeLoser said:

 

Someone in Baltimore should be fired for not turning this dude loose.

Flacco has never needed play-action to be more effective and no defense respects Buck...you'd think someone on staff would know this.

 

Everyone keeps saying the same thing about this guy every week. The coaches know better. They see what he does in practice. If he was effective and was head and shoulders above everyone else, he would get the work and be "unleashed". It's obvious that they see what we all see.....he's nothing special. He's serviceable.

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On 10/19/2017 at 10:33 AM, BrokeLoser said:

 

This game of wordplay and semantics is super fun...Thanks.

So ignore YPC on opportunities given and never consider explosiveness and unique running dynamics when targeting up and comers?....Hmmm, got it.

Well, the good news I guess, is Collins is in the right situation, has been provided opportunity and has executed on said opportunities.

"It completely ignores context of situation, usage, distribution of runs, etc."

Question: Where do I find these analytics? Does someone keep this on record? Would I need to watch every play of every game?

 

 

Sooooo. .  did those  YPC get you any  FANTASY RELEVANT POINTS this week?  :P

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1 minute ago, dashoe said:

 

 

Sooooo. .  did those  YPC get you any  FANTASY RELEVANT POINTS this week?  :P

I agree that Alex Collins plays specifically worse than his YPC would suggest for fantasy purposes.

 

But YPC is still an amazing baseline of predicted fantasy points that few other stats are, and I have to step in and defend anyone who makes a YPC based argument and gets trashed.

 

Equation for fantasy production in an RB goes [(YPC x Game Flow) + (Projected Offensive Team Production/ (Injury Risk x Fumbles)^2)]

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9 minutes ago, pushaZ said:

I agree that Alex Collins plays specifically worse than his YPC would suggest for fantasy purposes.

 

But YPC is still an amazing baseline of predicted fantasy points that few other stats are, and I have to step in and defend anyone who makes a YPC based argument and gets trashed.

 

Equation for fantasy production in an RB goes [(YPC x Game Flow) + (Projected Offensive Team Production/ (Injury Risk x Fumbles)^2)]

 

 

Success Rate is a better metric for fantasy. YPC is tmisleading because it doesnt account for the distribution of runs and context,  meaning   five 2yd carries in the red zone vs   two 25yd carry. from one own 10yd line.

 

I'm teasing brokeloser because he was adamant about the relevancy of ypc to fantasy points as if it is infallible

Edited by dashoe
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