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Alex Collins 2017 Season Outlook


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54 minutes ago, Fried Pork Grind said:

 I am considering using one of my last waiver moves to start this guy over Howard for the remainder of the season. Thoughts? 

I would. Not a great matchup but Howard can get you a zero with that Bears offense.

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Tough read this week.  With the exception of Howard, Fournette and J. Williams, the Steelers have been very good against RBs.  They will be without Shazier, but the Ravens will be without their best CB (Smith)..

 

Earlier in the season in Baltimore, the Ravens found themselves down 19-0 at half.  Collins still managed 82 yards on just 9 touches.

 

Here are the scores from the last 4 meetings: 

 

10/01/2017 Pittsburgh 26, Baltimore 9
12/25/2016 Pittsburgh 31, Baltimore 27
11/06/2016 Baltimore 21, Pittsburgh 14
12/27/2015 Baltimore 20, Pittsburgh 17

 

Not quite baseball scores, but no track meets either.

 

I don't like betting on 2 down RBs on the road, especially in hotly contested divisional tilts.  Whereas Collins has been gaining Harbaugh's trust (that much is obvious), it will only take an early fumble to torpedo any chance of a productive effort.  Also, with the Steelers, a game script that favors Allen/Woodhead is always a risk.

 

Is Collins a fade this week?  Right now, I believe so (leaning Perine at RB, and Westbrook at flex).  Would love to hear a well-reasoned counter-point (something other than "Collins is a stud," "Collins is on a roll," etc.).

  

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Not listed on the injury report today, but much more difficult match up if he plays.

 

Ravens running back Alex Collins, who had migraines after Sunday's game, was on the field for Wednesday's practice, wearing sunglasses with his hood up. The only players missing from practice were linebackers C.J. Mosley (ankle) and Za'Darius Smith... http://www.espn.com/espn/now?nowId=21-40011797-4 

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4 hours ago, Rolling Thunder said:

Tough read this week.  With the exception of Howard, Fournette and J. Williams, the Steelers have been very good against RBs.  They will be without Shazier, but the Ravens will be without their best CB (Smith)..

 

Earlier in the season in Baltimore, the Ravens found themselves down 19-0 at half.  Collins still managed 82 yards on just 9 touches.

 

Here are the scores from the last 4 meetings: 

 

10/01/2017 Pittsburgh 26, Baltimore 9
12/25/2016 Pittsburgh 31, Baltimore 27
11/06/2016 Baltimore 21, Pittsburgh 14
12/27/2015 Baltimore 20, Pittsburgh 17

 

Not quite baseball scores, but no track meets either.

 

I don't like betting on 2 down RBs on the road, especially in hotly contested divisional tilts.  Whereas Collins has been gaining Harbaugh's trust (that much is obvious), it will only take an early fumble to torpedo any chance of a productive effort.  Also, with the Steelers, a game script that favors Allen/Woodhead is always a risk.

 

Is Collins a fade this week?  Right now, I believe so (leaning Perine at RB, and Westbrook at flex).  Would love to hear a well-reasoned counter-point (something other than "Collins is a stud," "Collins is on a roll," etc.).

  

Nope, I read it the same way you do.

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Bengals and Packers ran the ball well on them om them in prior two games. With Collins, we are banking on red zone opportunities. I think the Ravens will move the ball on Steelers, at least through the air. Collins should have chances to score I think. 

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On 12/6/2017 at 7:05 AM, iheartrubio said:

My thought is how do I join your league?  How in the heck is Collins still on waivers?

 

On 12/6/2017 at 7:24 AM, yanksman said:

2 team league?

 

On 12/6/2017 at 7:05 AM, iheartrubio said:

My thought is how do I join your league?  How in the heck is Collins still on waivers?

 

I play in leagues that max waiver wires transactions. This time of year most playoff bound teams only have a few moves left and people like to save those in case of injury to a position that you don't have depth or even to stream defenses and/or a QB per match-up. So it's common in those leagues to see late bloomers that people are still unsure of to be available. Also non playoff bound teams seem to loose interest and probably have better things to do then to play for nothing.... 

 

I did however play in a league for a few years that had a $500 side bet per game ontop of the overall $5000 champion payout. In that league people kept interest for the entire season. Sadly corruption and coalition ruined the league. 

 

I dropped Doctson for Collins in one league. I know only have one transaction left. 

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Cleveland is actually tough against the run. People just see Cleveland and assume garbage, easy FF points....but they're ranked 11th in FP allowed to RBs.

 

Still would probably start him. Gonna see how he does against a real tough rushing defense this week. If he struggles, I may sit Collins week 15 and start him week 16.

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10 minutes ago, tpat30 said:

Cleveland is actually tough against the run. People just see Cleveland and assume garbage, easy FF points....but they're ranked 11th in FP allowed to RBs.

 

Still would probably start him. Gonna see how he does against a real tough rushing defense this week. If he struggles, I may sit Collins week 15 and start him week 16.

 

People do the same with JAX run D except the other way. 

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On 12/6/2017 at 12:56 PM, Rolling Thunder said:

Tough read this week.  With the exception of Howard, Fournette and J. Williams, the Steelers have been very good against RBs.  They will be without Shazier, but the Ravens will be without their best CB (Smith)..

 

Earlier in the season in Baltimore, the Ravens found themselves down 19-0 at half.  Collins still managed 82 yards on just 9 touches.

 

Here are the scores from the last 4 meetings: 

 

10/01/2017 Pittsburgh 26, Baltimore 9
12/25/2016 Pittsburgh 31, Baltimore 27
11/06/2016 Baltimore 21, Pittsburgh 14
12/27/2015 Baltimore 20, Pittsburgh 17

 

Not quite baseball scores, but no track meets either.

 

I don't like betting on 2 down RBs on the road, especially in hotly contested divisional tilts.  Whereas Collins has been gaining Harbaugh's trust (that much is obvious), it will only take an early fumble to torpedo any chance of a productive effort.  Also, with the Steelers, a game script that favors Allen/Woodhead is always a risk.

 

Is Collins a fade this week?  Right now, I believe so (leaning Perine at RB, and Westbrook at flex).  Would love to hear a well-reasoned counter-point (something other than "Collins is a stud," "Collins is on a roll," etc.).

  

 

The Ravens do not have a team that can keep up in a track meet.  Their only chance of winning is to try and play keep away with the hope of a few lucky bounces of the football.  I expect a heavy dose of running early in the down and distance - especially with the absence of Shazier (prayers to he and his family).

 

Obviously, game flow will play a part.  But the AFC North prides itself on smash-mouth football, and I really expect that from both teams this week.  In my book, +Collins and +LB (not that you were sitting him anyways).

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Not confident at all this week with Collins.  Negative game script very possible here.  Weeks 15/16 appear much better if he's healthy. FWIW, Big Ben is a different QB at home vs away if you look at his splits.  I'd recommend looking elsewhere if you have another RB2.

Edited by mjb
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Collins should have a floor of at least 7 in PPR, assuming he gets a couple catches and at least 50 yards from scrimmage. I think he'll do better than that, but that should be his floor. To make starting him worthwhile, probably needs a TD and there is a decent shot of that happening.

 

Meanwhile, Collins continues to produce at a consistent level. He has at least 15 carries in four of his last five games, and his rushing yards have increased in each of the last three games. Early-season concerns about his ball security have disappeared.

After not receiving a red-zone carry in the first seven games of the season, Collins has 12 in the last five games. That includes six carries inside the 10-yard line, four of which he converted into TDs over the last three games. 

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I guess the GL work is the big change recently.  Everyone feared that Woody would get some of that once he returned.

 

I really want to roll with Collins (Westbrook and Davis haven't established themselves).  The Ravens losing their best CB though has me thinking that Big Ben and company at home will be able to establish a negative game script for Collins before he has the chance do his thing.  If game script remains ok, then Collins is probably ok.  Decisions, decisions.

 

Edited by Rolling Thunder
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